Rugby
2010 Results:
Conservative: 20901 (44.03%)
Labour: 14901 (31.39%)
Liberal Democrat: 9434 (19.87%)
BNP: 1375 (2.9%)
UKIP: 406 (0.86%)
Green: 451 (0.95%)
Majority: 6000 (12.64%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 18243 (40.4%)
Labour: 18069 (40%)
Liberal Democrat: 7625 (16.9%)
Other: 1274 (2.8%)
Majority: 174 (0.4%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 23447 (41.2%)
Labour: 21891 (38.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 10143 (17.8%)
UKIP: 911 (1.6%)
Other: 557 (1%)
Majority: 1556 (2.7%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 21344 (39.7%)
Labour: 24221 (45%)
Liberal Democrat: 7444 (13.8%)
UKIP: 787 (1.5%)
Majority: 2877 (5.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 25861 (42.3%)
Labour: 26356 (43.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 8737 (14.3%)
Other: 251 (0.4%)
Majority: 495 (0.8%)
Boundary changes:
Profile: Note that Rallings & Thrasher`s notional figures have Rugby as a Labour seat, so the mainstream media will treat this as a Labour held seat at the next election.
Current MP: Mark Pawsey (Conservative) Educated at Lawrence Sherriff School and Reading University. Founder of a catering supplies business. Rugby councillor 2002-2007. Contested Nuneaton 2005.
Mark Pawsey (Conservative) Educated at Lawrence Sherriff School and Reading University. Founder of a catering supplies business. Rugby councillor 2002-2007. Contested Nuneaton 2005.Andy King (Labour) born 1948, Bellshill. Educated at Missionary Institute and Hatfield Polytechnic. Former social services manager. Former Rugby councillor. Former Warwickshire county councillor. MP for Rugby and Kenilworth 1997-2005.Jerry Roodhouse (Liberal Democrat) born 1953. Rugby councillor since 1989. Warwickshire county councillor since 1990. Leader of Liberal Democrat group on Warwickshire county council. Contestged West Midlands region 1999 European elections. Contested Warwickshire North 2005, Newcastle under Lyme 2001, Rugby & Kenilworth 1997, 1992. Roy Sandison (Green) Formerly worked for a mental health charity.Barry Milford (UKIP) Freelance writer Mark Badrick (BNP)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 84832
Male: 49.6%
Female: 50.4%
Under 18: 22.6%
Over 60: 21.7%
Born outside UK: 6.4%
White: 94%
Black: 1%
Asian: 3.5%
Mixed: 1.2%
Other: 0.4%
Christian: 75.1%
Hindu: 2.1%
Muslim: 0.6%
Sikh: 0.6%
Full time students: 2.2%
Graduates 16-74: 18.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 26.8%
Owner-Occupied: 76.4%
Social Housing: 14.6% (Council: 10.4%, Housing Ass.: 4.2%)
Privately Rented: 5.7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 4.8%
I don’t remember her as being on the authoritarian left, though I remember her flirting with New Labour. Even then I couldn’t stand her.
She was a conventional journalist for left-wing papers and magazines like New Society and the Graun until about 1988 – she could have been the editor of the paper by now had things been different – but then, as a columnist, she moved to the right, and has stayed there ever since. She still, in terms of appearance, looks more like like a high-toned liberal journalist of the Toynbee school. But this is by the by.
Melanie Phillips is one of the most intelligent and incisive commentators in Britain today. Nearly everything she says is sensible, important, and factual. What’s more, she says what people don’t want to hear but what needs to be said.
She is a raging (and raving) Islamophobe, and at the same time ever ready to accuse anyone who dares criticise Israeli policy of anti-semitism.
The famous Einstein quote is very appropriate: “I occasionally wish I could be as certain of anything as she appears to be of everything.”
For myself, the difficulty is that, as with Enoch Powell of a different era, her logic is impeccable but her starting premises are totally dissociated from anything I recognise as reality, and she is unwilling to listen to evidence to that effect,
I don’t recognise that analysis at all, but I can understand why she angers people with left-leaning views.
She does have valid points on many things, but the trouble is, if she’s wrong, it’s a total brick wall. Israel is an example of that.
A logical mind, but doesn’t always set things in the right context.
Does seem to have the attributes of someone who developed a dislike of their old viewpoint and became somewhat obsessive.
Rugby – Conservatives should hold with increased majority, but there’s a chance it could remain very close if Labour in again.
Lib Dems have selected Jerry Roodhouse here.
Interesting By-election for Warwickshire County Council yesterday I give the comparison with 2005 County Elections
2005 2008
LAB 1712 724
CON 1191 723
BNP N/A 313
LD 585 235
IND/GREEN 616 148
Lab Maj 521 1
6.3% swing to the Conservatives
BNP beat Lib Dems
This result contrasts with recent results in nearby Nuneaton and Hinckley where the limited success of the BNP has been at the expense of the Tories. here clearly labour was hurt more
Thanks for that information, although it would have been useful if the name of the by-election above had been given.
A one vote majority – sounds like an exciting election, wherever it was!
It was in Lawford and New Bilton, which is in Rugby.
Lawford and New Bilton is a ward that forms a triangle whose apex is at the centre of Rugby and spreads westward.
The Cemex cement works is in the north side of the ward – its chimney is now a Rugby’s biggest landmark.
The ward is mixed – New Bilton is predominately Victorian/Edwardian Housing and Lawford is esentially dormitory villages for Rugby and Coventry.
Labour will probably win this seat so long as there is a Labour majority in parliament.
In line with my general prediction for 2010 I would say Andy King will get in with a moderate majority and enjoy 5 more years to add to his parliamentary pension, but will lose in 2015 back to a rejuvinated Tory party as part of the general Tory landslide that I strongly think is likely to happen then.
By my reasoning, you believe Labour will win the 2010 election. An interesting prediction, since all Labour needs to do to lose its majority is to lose all of its seats with majorities of less than about 1,200 votes.
I disagree on this – although I like David’s posts.
I predict this will be Tory with an increased majority.
[BTW, I'm not particularly confident about Wolverhampton SW, as I feel the area has changed and it is lagging the likely swing].
A lot of interesting comments, but why have I been left out of the list of candidates? We need a change in Rugby, and it has been Independent before. MP Jeremy is moving up market and Rugby is going down and down. We need to reverse this trend and to have some new exciting initiatives in a town that has completely lost its way.
I will be standing as a candidate who can make a real difference, especially to the areas of multiple deprivation and high pollution, low life chances and low life expectancy, which will increase as they combine more poorer areas in with Rugby, while taking off the cream.
I wonder is Tory candidate Mark Pawsey related to former MP for Rugby & Kennilwoth James, and if so, is he in the same radical, right-wing mould?
Must be his son surely.
Lilian Pallikaropoulos – you may have been omitted from the candidates list because thus far I don’t think you’ve ever been mentioned!
Mark Pawsey is James Pawsey’s son – he did well in Nuneaton in 2005, and I think he will do well here.
Given the current political climate – prediction that there will be a Hung Parliament I reckon that (according to Rallings and Thrasher) this will be a Tory gain.
The town of Rugby itself, like many ex-market towns here in the Midlands is experiencing an expansion of its population. Much of this expansion comprises of large numbers of new Middle Class housing developments on mainly its northern/ north eastern flanks.
Rugby town centre does include a very solid Labour vote and I believe that the Brownsover area is fairly run-down and also very Labour however with the expansion of the Middle Class suburbs this may well be a seat which will move slowly to the Right.
On balance I believe it will be a fairly close contest here. The Tories will probably achieve a majority of about the 3,000/ 4,000 mark.
Going back again,
Rugby in 1979 had the appearance of a bad Labour result, and a very good Conservative result.
This was because it was a swing of 8.1%.
The Conservatives had also achieved a slight net swing to them in October 1974.
But actually, Labour did very well in 1966, 1970, and February 1974, so perhaps there was some evening out.
Boundaries unchanged across the period.
1979 (C gain)
Con 24,417 47.3%
Lab 21,688 42.0
Lib 4,945 9.6
NF 551 1.1
October 1974
Lab 22,926 48.2
C 17,722 37.3
Lib 6,775 14.3
Oth 137 0.3
February 1974
Lab 25,176 49.5%
C 19,022 37.4%
Lib 6,560 12.9%
1970
Lab 25,041 52.9%
C 22,086 46.6%
Oth 254 0.5%
1966 (Lab gain)
Lab 21,797 50.0%
C 21,388 49.1%
Oth 397 0.9%
1964
C 19,221 45.1%
Lab 17,532 41.2%
Lib 5,522 13.0%
Oth 304 0.7%
Change 1964-1979
C +2.2%
Lab +0.8%
Lib -3.4%
Very high turnouts in this seat, about 86% in 1979 I think, but it was somewhat under-sized.
All these comparisons of course don’t take account of changing demographics, if any of significance here.
That was a strange result indeed in 1970
Robert Waller referred to these deviant swings in his books, but I think this is a longer track record of what Ipswich used to do.
I suppose the defeated MP in 1966 could have a personal vote, but it’s a srong against the trend swing for 1970, particularly with it’s proximity to the West Midlands.
I suppose the October 1974 result could have been a bit of a quirk, but quite unusual for the Liberals to increase their vote which seems a factor in the swing.
The odd result is the 1964 where the Conservative majority quadrupled against the national swing. Incidentally the same thing happened between 1997 and 2001 in the reverse direction.
The decline in engineering in the town and the increase in distribution is reflected in a slow but long term decline in the traditional Labour vote.
Whilst the boundary changes favour Labour the County Council Elections resulted in the elimination of the their county representation within the town.
Interestingly the Conservatives did far better in the north and east of the county than in the south and west which is their traditional heartland (Stratford constituency seats showing a markd swing from the Conservatives to the SDP.
A prediction for Warwickshire seats for the next election
Kenilworth & Southam – Conservative win by 10000-15000
North Warwickshire – Too close to call
Nuneaton -Conservative gain (1,000-3000 majority).
Rugby Conservative hold (4000 – 7000 majority)
Stratford Conservative hold by 7000
Warwick & Leamington – Conservative gain (1000-3000).
I have posted twice today here and on the Mid Sussex thread – in both cases Newbie Nick has tried to change the topic – I thought the Constituency pages where for debate on constituency matters – not for spleen venting on pet subjects.
Am I wrong Anthony?
Back to basics indeed. I replied on the Mid Sussex thread along similar lines. On your previous post I tend to be in agreement except I suspect Warwick & leamington may be close too. Though I havent aggregated CC votes for Warwickshire yet, it is notable that though the Conservatives won a clear majority on Warwickshire CC for the first time since 1977 they did so without winning a single seat in Leamington. Leamington is the Tory achilles heel in that constituency and I think casts the majority of votes – Warwick and what little remains of the rural hinterland is much more favourable. This constituency will certainly be an easy Tory win.
Clearly if there is a Tory landslide nationally, Rugby is unlikely to buck that trend. However, to say the Labour vote is in “long-term” decline is over stating the case as the share of the vote went up in 2001 and the Conservatives still performed less well in 2005 than 1997 despite picking up the former seat of Rugby and Kenilworth (which frankly on the old boundaries should never have been lost). The recent county council results are again slightly misleading as in the three central wards of New Bilton, Newbold and Benn the Labour vote held up reasonably well (repeating the 2008 Borough council results) and certainly with 20%+ of the vote in Rugby as a whole Labour should have been rewarded with at least one county councillor this time.
County results from 2005
Con – 37.1%
Lab – 36.7%
Lib Dem – 24.5%
Green – 3.3%
Ind. – 1.4%
Gives the Conservatives a majority of 0.4%.
County results from 2009
Con – 44.8%
Lib Dem – 20.2%
Lab – 19.3%
Green – 11.4%
BNP – 2.5%
Ind. – 1.7%
Gives the Conservatives a majority of 24.6% of the Liberal Democrats and a lead over Labour of 25.5%.
The only result likely to occur here is a Conservative victory, although I think it nigh on impossible for Labour to not come second.
Thanks for these figures Sasha,
so a large swing to Con and Green.
Can I confirm as a member the constituency party executive that the regional Labour Party is treating Rugby as a Labour held seat on the same basis as Warwick and Leamington and North Warwickshire for example. And hopefully without any party bias predict that the final result here will definately not be a third place behind the Liberal Democrats or 26% behind the Conservatives!
Rugby Green Party have selected well known local community campaigner Roy Sandison as its General Election Candidate for Rugby in the forthcoming General Election.
Roy who is 45 years old, lives in New Bilton in Rugby and has lived in the town for over 30 years and has worked until recently in the mental health sector for over 15 years for a major mental health charity in Rugby.
Cons Hold/Gain= 2,500 maj
Con Hold/Gain
Maj 3400
Historical Note.
This town was a major centre of the UK Electrical Engineering Industry.
Early work on the development of the Jet engine took place in the BTH works adjacent to Rugby Railway Station and sidings.
BNP have selected Mark Badrick
Con maj 4,000
Mark Pawsey will be the new MP and I can see the Lib Dems coming 2nd.Maj 5000
Hang on!
If current YouGov (25/4/10) poll is correct, then based on Rawlings and Thrasher figures for 2005, the current position would be approx Con 39%, Lab 35% and Lib Dem 23%.
In addition Andy King will get 2,000-3,000 extra personal votes based on his reputation as good constituency MP between 1997-2005.
Still all to play for (and if we finish behind the Lib Dems who are not even standing candidates for council in Earl Craven, Bulkington etc I will eat my hat!)
As a first-time voter, I have looked over the party manifestos quite thoroughly and have decided to vote Conservative. A number of my friends have come to the same conclusion. I think that the polls should focus more on the views of the first-time voters as they are more likely to have an effect on the swing – they would not have any loyalty to the Labour candidate despite his prior positions as the Rugby MP.
CON HOLD
The Conservatives took this by exactly 6,000 votes on a 8.9% swing (R&T).
Very belated reply to Andy, but of course Anthony’s figures differ. If they were correct, this is a less poor result for Labour than the others in Warwickshire despite the lack of an incumbent from that party (however, of course the Conservatives didn’t have one either). On these boundaries this seat is certainly not out of Labour’s reach at present, but the boundary changes can have a profound effect on any Rugby-based seat.