Rugby
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 18243 (40.4%)
Labour: 18069 (40%)
Liberal Democrat: 7625 (16.9%)
Other: 1274 (2.8%)
Majority: 174 (0.4%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 23447 (41.2%)
Labour: 21891 (38.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 10143 (17.8%)
UKIP: 911 (1.6%)
Other: 557 (1%)
Majority: 1556 (2.7%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 21344 (39.7%)
Labour: 24221 (45%)
Liberal Democrat: 7444 (13.8%)
UKIP: 787 (1.5%)
Majority: 2877 (5.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 25861 (42.3%)
Labour: 26356 (43.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 8737 (14.3%)
Other: 251 (0.4%)
Majority: 495 (0.8%)
Boundary changes:
Profile: Note that Rallings & Thrasher`s notional figures have Rugby as a Labour seat, so the mainstream media will treat this as a Labour held seat at the next election.
Outgoing MP: Jeremy Wright(Conservative) born 1972, Taunton. Educated at Taunton School and the University of Exeter. Barrister, specialising in criminal law. First elected as MP for Rugby & Kenilworth in 2005. Will contest the new Kenilworth and Southam at the next election (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Mark Pawsey (Conservative) Educated at Lawrence Sherriff School and Reading University. Founder of a catering supplies business. Rugby councillor 2002-2007. Contested Nuneaton 2005.Andy King (Labour) born 1948, Bellshill. Educated at Missionary Institute and Hatfield Polytechnic. Former social services manager. Former Rugby councillor. Former Warwickshire county councillor. MP for Rugby and Kenilworth 1997-2005.Jerry Roodhouse (Liberal Democrat) born 1953. Rugby councillor since 1989. Warwickshire county councillor since 1990. Leader of Liberal Democrat group on Warwickshire county council. Contestged West Midlands region 1999 European elections. Contested Warwickshire North 2005, Newcastle under Lyme 2001, Rugby & Kenilworth 1997, 1992. Barry Milford (UKIP) Freelance writer Roy Sandison (Green) Formerly worked for a mental health charity.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 84832
Male: 49.6%
Female: 50.4%
Under 18: 22.6%
Over 60: 21.7%
Born outside UK: 6.4%
White: 94%
Black: 1%
Asian: 3.5%
Mixed: 1.2%
Other: 0.4%
Christian: 75.1%
Hindu: 2.1%
Muslim: 0.6%
Sikh: 0.6%
Full time students: 2.2%
Graduates 16-74: 18.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 26.8%
Owner-Occupied: 76.4%
Social Housing: 14.6% (Council: 10.4%, Housing Ass.: 4.2%)
Privately Rented: 5.7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 4.8%
I have posted twice today here and on the Mid Sussex thread – in both cases Newbie Nick has tried to change the topic – I thought the Constituency pages where for debate on constituency matters – not for spleen venting on pet subjects.
Am I wrong Anthony?
Back to basics indeed. I replied on the Mid Sussex thread along similar lines. On your previous post I tend to be in agreement except I suspect Warwick & leamington may be close too. Though I havent aggregated CC votes for Warwickshire yet, it is notable that though the Conservatives won a clear majority on Warwickshire CC for the first time since 1977 they did so without winning a single seat in Leamington. Leamington is the Tory achilles heel in that constituency and I think casts the majority of votes – Warwick and what little remains of the rural hinterland is much more favourable. This constituency will certainly be an easy Tory win.
Clearly if there is a Tory landslide nationally, Rugby is unlikely to buck that trend. However, to say the Labour vote is in “long-term” decline is over stating the case as the share of the vote went up in 2001 and the Conservatives still performed less well in 2005 than 1997 despite picking up the former seat of Rugby and Kenilworth (which frankly on the old boundaries should never have been lost). The recent county council results are again slightly misleading as in the three central wards of New Bilton, Newbold and Benn the Labour vote held up reasonably well (repeating the 2008 Borough council results) and certainly with 20%+ of the vote in Rugby as a whole Labour should have been rewarded with at least one county councillor this time.
County results from 2005
Con – 37.1%
Lab – 36.7%
Lib Dem – 24.5%
Green – 3.3%
Ind. – 1.4%
Gives the Conservatives a majority of 0.4%.
County results from 2009
Con – 44.8%
Lib Dem – 20.2%
Lab – 19.3%
Green – 11.4%
BNP – 2.5%
Ind. – 1.7%
Gives the Conservatives a majority of 24.6% of the Liberal Democrats and a lead over Labour of 25.5%.
The only result likely to occur here is a Conservative victory, although I think it nigh on impossible for Labour to not come second.
Thanks for these figures Sasha,
so a large swing to Con and Green.
Can I confirm as a member the constituency party executive that the regional Labour Party is treating Rugby as a Labour held seat on the same basis as Warwick and Leamington and North Warwickshire for example. And hopefully without any party bias predict that the final result here will definately not be a third place behind the Liberal Democrats or 26% behind the Conservatives!
Rugby Green Party have selected well known local community campaigner Roy Sandison as its General Election Candidate for Rugby in the forthcoming General Election.
Roy who is 45 years old, lives in New Bilton in Rugby and has lived in the town for over 30 years and has worked until recently in the mental health sector for over 15 years for a major mental health charity in Rugby.