Comments on: Ross Skye and Lochaber

By: Andy JS

Andy JS — Mon, 17 Oct 2011 04:22:12 +0000

ITN report on Charles Kennedy’s first day at Westminster in June 1983:

htttp://bit.ly/nxQOIA

By: Calum W

Calum W — Mon, 23 May 2011 23:58:42 +0000

Dave Thompson SNP 14,737 46.2 +14.6
Alan MacRae Liberal Democrat 9,742 30.5 -11.3
Linda Stewart Labour 4,112 12.9 -1.4
Kerensa Carr Conservative 2,834 8.9 -2.8
Ronnie Campbell Independent 490 1.5 +1.5
Majority 4,995 15.7
Swing 13.0% from Liberal Democrat to SNP

The LD showing in Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch must seem relatively positive compared to the results in almost every other seat they had any strength in previously. Labour, as A Brown said, were just not at the races here, which also contrasts to the rest of rural Scotland where Labour were surprisingly resilient in the face of the SNP surge.

By: Calum W

Calum W — Mon, 23 May 2011 23:46:26 +0000

It will ultimately come down to whether people here (or rather in whatever new seat Kennedy stands in) are willing to vote for Kennedy in spite of their loathing of the coalition and Clegg. The effect of MPs such as Kennedy or Ming being detached from the coalition itself is hard to judge from the Holyrood elections as almost all of those MSPs who lost their seats – Purvis, Margaret Smith, Pringle and Rumbles to name but a few who seemed to have a strong personal vote – tried to campaign with a view that this was a separate election and a separate party with separate policies. Evidently, even with the most popular mainland Lib Dems, this didn’t work, so it remains to be seen whether MPs such as Kennedy and Campbell (if they do both decide to run again) can hang on. I suspect that the reverse of this effect will indeed be true i.e. that ‘loyalists’ such as Moore and Alexander suffer even more as a result of being in coalition (the LDs were notionally third in Moore’s seat and fourth in the Inverness and Nairn holyrood seat which is equivalent to Alexander’s seat).

By: Dalek

Dalek — Mon, 23 May 2011 23:21:30 +0000

Not sure CK would lose, as he has a personal vote.

Winnie Ewing consistently won the Highlands & Islands Euro seat when the Liberals dominated the area at Westminster.

Though Hamish Grey lost what had been a safe seat for him in 1979 in 1983 (though there were boundary changes), and he had a personal vote.

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Mon, 23 May 2011 22:57:55 +0000

SNP gain from Lib Dem.
Charles Kennedy decapitated.

By: A Brown

A Brown — Mon, 09 May 2011 16:18:39 +0000

The lib dems did at least manage to avoid falling below 30% here (was that due to the Kennedy factor?).
Appalling Labour result.

By: Cllr Peter Cairns (SNP)

Cllr Peter Cairns (SNP) — Sun, 24 Apr 2011 18:52:22 +0000

I’ve been out canvasing around Dingwall much of the last week and I’ve had the best reaction ever…

On Thursday afternoon we were in Beauly and the surrounding area a team of six of us spent three hours with Dave Thompson.

Almost everybody we talked too was supporting us and significantly a lot were switching from the LibDems. few Tory or Labour voters anywhere.

If this is replicated elsewhere and we are getting good returns across the seat then I would say this seat is extremely winnable.

Add to thatsome Libdems voting for Alex Salmond for first Minister on the list and an undercurrent of Libdems switching to the Greens and the map of teh Highlands could be changing out of all recognition.

Peter.

By: Calum W

Calum W — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 18:35:15 +0000

By my prediction, with approximately those numbers we’re most likely looking at:
SNP 6/7 MSPs
Labour 4 MSPs
LDs 2/3 MSPs
Conservative 1/2 MSPs
Greens 0/1 MSP
This is taking into account scenarios whereby the LDs hold 3 constituencies, Labour gains the Western Isles and even the SNP somehow gaining Orkney.

By: A Brown

A Brown — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 17:35:14 +0000

Here’s my list prediction for the highlands anyway

SNP 38
Lab 24
LD 15
Con 12
Grn 6
Others 5

By: Calum W

Calum W — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 16:30:54 +0000

Even the most optimistic cybernat would surely laugh at the idea of the SNP gaining East Lothian this time round! Personally, I feel if the SNP can simply consolidate its gains from last time in the central belt it will be a hugely successful election. In response to Shaun, I don’t think people understand just how reliant the Scottish Lib Dems are on, essentially, not being tories. The majority of Lib Dem voters in Scotland, and especially in seats like this, are centre-left and having Danny Alexander as Chief Secretary to the Treasury must make them even more bitter for electing them. I honestly don’t see why predicting a fairly comfortable SNP gain is unreasonable.