Ross Skye and Lochaber
2010 Results:
Conservative: 4260 (12.23%)
Labour: 5265 (15.11%)
Liberal Democrat: 18335 (52.63%)
SNP: 5263 (15.11%)
UKIP: 659 (1.89%)
Green: 777 (2.23%)
Independent: 279 (0.8%)
Majority: 13070 (37.52%)
2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 19100 (58.7%)
Labour: 4851 (14.9%)
Conservative: 3275 (10.1%)
SNP: 3119 (9.6%)
Other: 2193 (6.7%)
Majority: 14249 (43.8%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election: Name of seat changed from Ross, Skye and Inverness West.
2001 Result
Conservative: 3096 (8.9%)
Labour: 5880 (16.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 18832 (54.1%)
SNP: 4901 (14.1%)
UKIP: 456 (1.3%)
Green: 699 (2%)
Other: 948 (2.7%)
Majority: 12952 (37.2%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 4368 (10.9%)
Labour: 11453 (28.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 15472 (38.7%)
SNP: 7821 (19.6%)
Referendum: 535 (1.3%)
Other: 306 (0.8%)
Majority: 4019 (10.1%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Charles Kennedy(Liberal Democrat) (more information at They work for you)
Donald Cameron (Conservative) born 1976, Lochaber. Educated at Oxford University. Advocate. Contested Linlithgow and Lothians region in 2007 Scottish elections.John McKendrick (Labour) Charles Kennedy(Liberal Democrat) (more information at They work for you)Alasdair Stephen (SNP)Eleanor Scott (Green) Philip Anderson (UKIP) Ronnie Campbell (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 62384
Male: 48.9%
Female: 51.1%
Under 18: 23.2%
Over 60: 22.8%
Born outside UK: 3.3%
White: 99.2%
Asian: 0.3%
Mixed: 0.2%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 69.4%
Graduates 16-74: 21.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 32.2%
Owner-Occupied: 66.6%
Social Housing: 20.2% (Council: 17.2%, Housing Ass.: 2.9%)
Privately Rented: 8.6%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.9%
My prediction would be if Charles Kennedy campaigns here if not could be a SNP win though but I would go for a social Liberal LD to win the seat as Kennedy’s distance from his leadership may help the LDs win this seat but I would love Labour to win here
It will certainly be interesting to see how the constituencies are redesigned in this area and if Kennedy steps down at the next election.
You are more in the know about Scotland than me, but I would be surprised if Kennedy stood down. He’s still a young man and doesn’t have any other obvious career ahead of him.
Westminster is much more indulgent and understanding of depressive alcoholics than a normal employer would be.
I agree it would be interesting to see whether the LDs could hold the seat without him.
Probably just foolish speculation then but if boundary changes were to go through Viscount Thurso might have to.
“doesn’t have any other obvious career ahead of him.”
Nonsense. He is a well known, intelligent figure who remains well liked and, notwithstanding his battles with the bottle, if he stood down he would have ample openings in broadcasting, lecturing, and on the boards of various businesses and public bodies. But I agree he is quite unlikely to step down on balance – he has it for life if he wants it, and he enjoys it despite everything.
On boundary changes, remember that the Bill includes a clause setting the maximum area of a constituency at 13,000 square kilometres, which overrides the basic rule of 80K (ish) electors plus or minus 5%. This was obviously designed specifically with these seats in mind and changes here may not be as significant as you would think.
‘He’s still a young man and doesn’t have any other obvious career ahead of him.’
I agree with Sir Norfolk in that if he were to step down he would have plenty of openings on offer – the TV studio being one of them
He’s certainly mote talented than the bulk of MP’s who lost their seats in 2010 (and 1997 for that matter)
Lembit Opik, a man held in less esteem than Mr Kennedy, lost his seat at the last election and yet he’s been on TV more frequently since than when he was an MP
I also think to write him off as a “depressive alchollic” underestimates a popular, intelligent, kind and very likeable man, who has been one of politics more agreeable figures
You might prefer the likes of John Bird, Glenn Beck and Daniel Hannan – although i’d take Charles Kennedy over this lot any day
i suspect you’rer right any way – he has little intention of standing down frok politics
Kennedy is still extremely influential within the party and well liked. Don’t forget that the leadership (themselves neither as unpopular nor as right-wing as some would like to think) don’t control the Liberal Democrats in the same way Labour or Tory leaders do – it comes down to popularity with the members, and Charles is much loved.
The boundary changes will not be as drastic as all that here – there is the upper limit on area to consider and Scotland will not need to lose many seats in any case. In the end, if the move to seats of 76,000 electors does mean the loss of a Lib Dem seat, Charles would be a prime candidate to be one of the “big beasts” who go up for election to the newly-politicised upper house.
The media generally, including the BBC, seem to provide opportunities for a number of MPs, including some who have left the Commons in a state of considerable unpopularity (no names mentioned!). It seems to be that if as an MP you get in with the establishment a media sinecure is one way they will look after you. How healthy this is for democracy is open to question – after all the point of the elections we comment upon on this site is that the great British people can kick out those who don’t do a good job.
There is one particular late night political TV programme I have ceased to watch – although it can be quite interesting – because of the excessive number of politicians down on their luck whom it seems to provide with appearances.
How much an MP who entered the Commons as young as Kennedy would really have to say if he wasn’t an MP is open to question.
I have in past posted comments on this thread that ran a little close to the wind concerning personality. It may not be very psephological, but for a nice bloke, with considerable human flaws, like Kennedy I do rather wish he would sort himself out from his apparent political dead end and get a way forward to happiness and achievement.
With relation to A. Brown’s post, if it came to a head to head for reselection on grounds of political competence and propspects frankly it is clear that John Thurso would be a better choice that Kennedy. But whether it went to a political meeting or an establishment carve up I expect Kennedy would get prefence. My impression is that democracy does systematically lead to some sub-optimal personnel selection, from the perspective of anybody with even a little training and experience in the area. But that is something we have to put up with for the other advantages of democracy.
I think you’re being a bit overly cynical about the media and ex-MPs, Frederic.
MPs tend to be somewhat above average in terms of how articulate and outgoing they are. They are also often intelligent people. These are all quite useful in a media personality. It isn’t terribly surprising one or two get a few quid in the broadcasting business after leaving (Johnson, Portillo, Kilroy etc). A few others have novelty value and do well for a short while (Opik, Hamilton etc). They may not all be to your taste, but they aren’t terrible choices for the particular programmes they do.
On the other hand, there are a hell of a lot of ex-MPs about and not that many would be allowed within a mile of a studio. Well over 200 stepped down or lost in 2010, and I can’t imagine we’ll ever hear from 90% of them again.
Kennedy would certainly be one you’d hear from were he to set down. He is a recognised and generally well-liked personality who is likely to draw some audience to shows (and get some publicity for the shows), he is a personable and intelligent man who would work well with programme makers, and has a soothing, well modulated voice.
Have been looking at what the UK boundary changes will mean in the North. Scotland, with an electorate of 3,985,161, has received 52 seats, but two of these are set aside for the islands constituencies (which have a combined total electorate of 56,115), this leaves an electorate of 3,929,046 over 50 seats, an average of 78,581. Thus it is going to be quite difficult for the boundary commission to keep all the remaining seats in Scotland within the national upper limit of 80,473 and with areas of no more than 13,000 square kilometres.
In Highland region, it looks like the best bet for getting as many electors into 13,000km2 seats is by making the following cut:
Caithness, Ross & Sutherland – taking in all of the current wards of those old counties (though Lochalsh would have to be taken out in order that the seat fits the size quota)
Inverness – taking in the rest of Highland council area apart from Nairn ward and the geographically large Badenoch & Strathspey ward (and probably most of Culloden & Ardersier as well in order to meet the electorate quota!).
The first seat would have an electorate of around 70,000 and the second around 80,000. This seems to be the best way to get large electorates in the Highland constituencies, though it would still push the quota for the rest of Scotland up to around 79,000. Plus, in respect to upthread, it would mean the Lib Dems would effectively lose one seat here, with Charles Kennedy and Danny Alexander fighting it out.
Might be missing something in my calculations tho!!
I think given the outgoing MSP’s personal backing of Salmond and the current polling evidence the SNP have to be very strong favourites in Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch so my prediction would be something like this:
SNP 10512 – 37.5% (+6)
LD 9740 – 34.8% (-7)
Labour 4821 – 17.2% (+3)
Con 2921- 10.4% (-2)
I feel that’s, if anything, erring on the safe side to be honest and my gut feeling is that the LDs risk falling below 30% unless they manage to gain some momentum in this campaign.
I had thought this could only be a narrow SNP gain now I think the majority could be between 5 and 10%.
I can’t believe it. Surely the Lib Dems won’t face that big a meltdown.
I think we may be ramping up the SNP just a little too much-like we did with the Lib Dems before the 2010 election. A lot of these expected gains just are not going to be pulled off.
Especially when they’re on the way out of government.
‘I can’t believe it. Surely the Lib Dems won’t face that big a meltdown.’
I didn’t think so either a few months ago if you scroll back over my posts but you will see that I have changed my opinion.
Perhaps up to 50% of Charles Kennedy’s vote might be a personal one rather than an active LD vote as it rose sharply in 2001 and 2005.
‘I think we may be ramping up the SNP just a little too much-like we did with the Lib Dems before the 2010 election. A lot of these expected gains just are not going to be pulled off.’
I think the SNP is possibly guilty of some ramping in a few constituencies like Airdrie and Shotts and East Lothian but two highland gains from the LDs looks possible for the SNP , it won’t gain them extra seats though due to the list situation!
Even the most optimistic cybernat would surely laugh at the idea of the SNP gaining East Lothian this time round! Personally, I feel if the SNP can simply consolidate its gains from last time in the central belt it will be a hugely successful election. In response to Shaun, I don’t think people understand just how reliant the Scottish Lib Dems are on, essentially, not being tories. The majority of Lib Dem voters in Scotland, and especially in seats like this, are centre-left and having Danny Alexander as Chief Secretary to the Treasury must make them even more bitter for electing them. I honestly don’t see why predicting a fairly comfortable SNP gain is unreasonable.
Here’s my list prediction for the highlands anyway
SNP 38
Lab 24
LD 15
Con 12
Grn 6
Others 5
By my prediction, with approximately those numbers we’re most likely looking at:
SNP 6/7 MSPs
Labour 4 MSPs
LDs 2/3 MSPs
Conservative 1/2 MSPs
Greens 0/1 MSP
This is taking into account scenarios whereby the LDs hold 3 constituencies, Labour gains the Western Isles and even the SNP somehow gaining Orkney.
I’ve been out canvasing around Dingwall much of the last week and I’ve had the best reaction ever…
On Thursday afternoon we were in Beauly and the surrounding area a team of six of us spent three hours with Dave Thompson.
Almost everybody we talked too was supporting us and significantly a lot were switching from the LibDems. few Tory or Labour voters anywhere.
If this is replicated elsewhere and we are getting good returns across the seat then I would say this seat is extremely winnable.
Add to thatsome Libdems voting for Alex Salmond for first Minister on the list and an undercurrent of Libdems switching to the Greens and the map of teh Highlands could be changing out of all recognition.
Peter.
The lib dems did at least manage to avoid falling below 30% here (was that due to the Kennedy factor?).
Appalling Labour result.
SNP gain from Lib Dem.
Charles Kennedy decapitated.
Not sure CK would lose, as he has a personal vote.
Winnie Ewing consistently won the Highlands & Islands Euro seat when the Liberals dominated the area at Westminster.
Though Hamish Grey lost what had been a safe seat for him in 1979 in 1983 (though there were boundary changes), and he had a personal vote.
It will ultimately come down to whether people here (or rather in whatever new seat Kennedy stands in) are willing to vote for Kennedy in spite of their loathing of the coalition and Clegg. The effect of MPs such as Kennedy or Ming being detached from the coalition itself is hard to judge from the Holyrood elections as almost all of those MSPs who lost their seats – Purvis, Margaret Smith, Pringle and Rumbles to name but a few who seemed to have a strong personal vote – tried to campaign with a view that this was a separate election and a separate party with separate policies. Evidently, even with the most popular mainland Lib Dems, this didn’t work, so it remains to be seen whether MPs such as Kennedy and Campbell (if they do both decide to run again) can hang on. I suspect that the reverse of this effect will indeed be true i.e. that ‘loyalists’ such as Moore and Alexander suffer even more as a result of being in coalition (the LDs were notionally third in Moore’s seat and fourth in the Inverness and Nairn holyrood seat which is equivalent to Alexander’s seat).
Dave Thompson SNP 14,737 46.2 +14.6
Alan MacRae Liberal Democrat 9,742 30.5 -11.3
Linda Stewart Labour 4,112 12.9 -1.4
Kerensa Carr Conservative 2,834 8.9 -2.8
Ronnie Campbell Independent 490 1.5 +1.5
Majority 4,995 15.7
Swing 13.0% from Liberal Democrat to SNP
The LD showing in Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch must seem relatively positive compared to the results in almost every other seat they had any strength in previously. Labour, as A Brown said, were just not at the races here, which also contrasts to the rest of rural Scotland where Labour were surprisingly resilient in the face of the SNP surge.
ITN report on Charles Kennedy’s first day at Westminster in June 1983:
htttp://bit.ly/nxQOIA