Romsey and Southampton North
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 18720 (43.3%)
Conservative: 18258 (42.2%)
Labour: 5144 (11.9%)
Other: 1107 (2.6%)
Majority: 462 (1.1%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 22340 (44.4%)
Labour: 4430 (8.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 22465 (44.7%)
UKIP: 1076 (2.1%)
Majority: 125 (0.2%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 20386 (42.1%)
Labour: 3986 (8.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 22756 (47%)
UKIP: 730 (1.5%)
Other: 601 (1.2%)
Majority: 2370 (4.9%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 23834 (46%)
Labour: 9623 (18.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 15249 (29.4%)
Referendum: 1291 (2.5%)
Other: 1824 (3.5%)
Majority: 8585 (16.6%)
Boundary changes
Current MP: Sandra Gidley (Lib Dem) born 1957, Wales. Educated at Eggars Grammar School and in schools in the Netherlands and Germany, and at the University of Bath. Pharmacist. Former Test Valley councillor. First elected as MP for Romsey in 2000 by-election. Womens issues spokesman 2001-2005, for older people 2003-2006, for health since 2006 (more information at They work for you)
Candidates:
Caroline Nokes (Conservative) Educated at La Sagesse Convent and the University of Sussex. Test Valley councillor. Contested Southampton Itchen 2001, Romsey 2005.
Aktar Beg (Labour)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 84743
Male: 49.6%
Female: 50.4%
Under 18: 21.1%
Over 60: 20.3%
Born outside UK: 8%
White: 95.3%
Black: 0.5%
Asian: 2.1%
Mixed: 0.9%
Other: 1.3%
Christian: 74.1%
Hindu: 0.6%
Muslim: 1%
Sikh: 0.6%
Full time students: 11%
Graduates 16-74: 25.8%
No Qualifications 16-74: 20.6%
Owner-Occupied: 72.3%
Social Housing: 13.6% (Council: 7.2%, Housing Ass.: 6.4%)
Privately Rented: 9.9%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 6.3%
I agree quite a bit with John.
Personally, very broadly, I don’t like American culture (although they have many fine individuals) - in general - so cannot easily envisage living there and voting as it’s so hypothetical, but realise one cannot be sweeping about somewhere so vast and I’m sure there are many points to weigh up over both Reagan and FDR.
I find both these candidates somewhat depressing. But I hope everyone here has a good weekend.
The subject of resentment by MP’s - not just conservative but some labour ones to in the past, that they have become glorified social workers has some justification when you consider it. Basically when a constituent goes to their MP with problems of housing, schools, healthcare and benefits it is basically an admission that the other 3 levels of government Parish,district anf county have failed which given the vast amount of money spent on them is very depressing. It is true that once an MP gets involved and uses their influence things do happen in most cases but it shouldn’t need to get to that level in the first place.
The assumption that only Lib Dems are hard working is silly and the suggestion or infurence that all Tory MP’s who lost seats in 97 were sleazy or lazy is absurbed. The reality most were just going about their jobs but were in the wrong place at the wrong time, as many Labour MP’s and half the Lib Dem’s will find out at the next general election in my opinion. Its just the cycle in 8-10 years time the boot will be on the other foot again I expect
Lib Dem Hold.
“Lib Dem Hold”
@ Lib Dem Lennie
Would appreciate some rationale behind your pronouncement for this seat. As I am sure you well know that the latest detailed polling information we have is from the Politics Home marginals poll which has this as a conservative gain. Also looking at the current national polls, this would look to be a likely conservative gain.
I totally accept that this result is not a forgone conclusion, but without attaching some comment about your rationale behind this result it looks like pure wishful thinking on your part ( and mildly plopwellesque!! ) So why has this poll got it so wrong? The methodology used takes into account many factors, including likely tactical voting and Lib Dem encumbancy factors
Holding this seat is going to be an immensely tall order for Sandra Gidley. Her majority was so tiny to begin with. She could pull it off with a good campaign, she could not do. Certainly national polling - even polls of marginals - is full of problems which cannot be mitigated. Most of all is the fundamental one that polls ask about a hypothetical election held now. There isn’t one, so there hasn’t been a month-long campaign or equal media time. That means all seats will tend towards being seen through a national Labour vs Tory prism, rather than what’s really going on on the ground. As I said, the likelihood is still that, even in a situation where Lib Dems make big gains nationally, this seat will be very vulnerable-but polling in between elections doesn’t really help that much
Rennie is less confident about Torbay. Interesting.
Sandra Gidley is a Lib Dem I have some time for (as she speaks well on health matters and seems to have specialist knowledge), but unless I have my general predictions completely wrong, I think this seat is pretty hopeless for her.
Torbay is also high on the Tory list - but I think it will remain a marginal seat and not return to what it used to be.
I would tend to agree. This and Torbay are the Lib dems’ most vulnerable parliamentary seats - a shame because Adrian Sanders is a nice guy and Sandra Gidley seems to work hard locally.
She does, by the way, have specialist knowledge - she is the only qualified pharmacist in the House!
“Adrian Sanders is a nice guy ”
Not sure Mark Littlewood would agree with that assessment..
Labour have selected Aktar Beg here.