Rochester and Strood
2010 Results:
Conservative: 23604 (49.2%)
Labour: 13651 (28.46%)
Liberal Democrat: 7800 (16.26%)
Green: 734 (1.53%)
English Democrat: 2182 (4.55%)
Majority: 9953 (20.74%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 19822 (43.9%)
Labour: 18321 (40.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 5367 (11.9%)
Other: 1618 (3.6%)
Majority: 1501 (3.3%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 17120 (41.7%)
Labour: 17333 (42.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 5152 (12.5%)
UKIP: 1488 (3.6%)
Majority: 213 (0.5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 15134 (39.2%)
Labour: 18914 (49%)
Liberal Democrat: 3604 (9.3%)
UKIP: 958 (2.5%)
Majority: 3780 (9.8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 16504 (36.9%)
Labour: 21858 (48.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 4555 (10.2%)
Referendum: 1420 (3.2%)
Other: 405 (0.9%)
Majority: 5354 (12%)
Boundary changes: gains part of Rochester South and Horsted and part of River ward while losing part of Chatham central to Chatham and Aylesford. The name of the seat was changed from Medway to avoid any confusion with the Unitary Authority of Medway.
Profile: A largely industrial seat in the conurbation of Medway in Kent. Rochester and Strood is geographically the largest of the Medway seats, taking in not just Rochester and Strood themselves but also the expanse of the Hoo peninsula between the estuaries of the Thames and Medway. The peninsula and the Isle of Grain are largely marshland and an important site for wild birds. In 2002-3 the area was considered as the possible site for a new airport, but the plans were eventually dropped. The south of the peninsula is industrial, and includes a major container port, a gas import plant and two power stations.
The urban part of the seat is the Western part of Medway, with Strood to the west of the river and Rochester to the east. Rochester is a historic city of strategic importance on the Medway (hence the presence of Rochester Castle and various Napoleonic Forts built to protect Chatham dockyard), it is also the second oldest Bishopric in England. As is the case across North Kent there is significant redevelopment in progress, with thousands of new houses being planned along the river medway waterfront, specifically Rochester Riverside, Strood Riverside and Temple Waterfront. The village of Borstal in the West of Rochester was the site of the original borstal and still hosts HMP Rochester.
The constituency also stretches south to take in Cuxton and Halling, a former chalk mining village that is now largely a commuter village.
Current MP: Mark Reckless (Conservative) Educated at Oxford University. Barrister and former banker. Medway councillor. Contested Medway 2001, 2005.
Mark Reckless (Conservative) Educated at Oxford University. Barrister and former banker. Medway councillor. Contested Medway 2001, 2005.
Teresa Murray (Labour) born London. Teacher. Medway councillor.
Geoff Juby (Liberal Democrat) born 1954. Educated at East Dereham Boys School. Caterer. Former Gillingham councillor and Medway councillor since 1997. Leader of Liberal Democrat group on Medway council. Contested Medway in 2001 and 2005.
Simon Marchant (Green)
Ron Sands (English Democrat)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 96246
Male: 49.6%
Female: 50.4%
Under 18: 24.1%
Over 60: 18.2%
Born outside UK: 6.3%
White: 94.7%
Black: 0.7%
Asian: 2.9%
Mixed: 0.9%
Other: 0.8%
Christian: 72.8%
Hindu: 0.6%
Muslim: 0.9%
Sikh: 1.4%
Full time students: 2.7%
Graduates 16-74: 13.1%
No Qualifications 16-74: 29.8%
Owner-Occupied: 74.9%
Social Housing: 14.2% (Council: 2%, Housing Ass.: 12.2%)
Privately Rented: 7.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 9.8%
The winning candidate in the River ward by-election seems to be going for the Doktorb Award. He has resigned 13 days after winning his seat on the council.
That will give Labour plenty of encouragement. It will be surprising if the Tories were able to hold the seat in the circumstances.
‘The winning candidate in the River ward by-election’
River ward is not in this constituency, it is in Chatham and Aylesford. (Unless it is split between the two of course) I have discussed it on that seat’s thread.
I guess Benjamin is talking about Medway district generally and not this constituency specifically.
Harry you are mistaken. The whole of this ward is in this constituency. Previously parts of it were in Chatham & Aylesford and Gillingham but the boundary changes which came into force at the recent general election brought it all into this seat. The ward does include the historic Chatham dockyard of course, which may contribute to some confusion about which seat it is in.
‘Harry you are mistaken. The whole of this ward is in this constituency.’
I said exactly that on the Chatham thread, whilst discussing the confusion Pete mentioned!! Silly me
The River ward by-election has taken place, and it was a Labour gain, but only by 64 votes.
Peggy Fenner is still alive.
She could have stood again to recapture the seat,
as in 1970 and 1979.
In theory, yes. Trouble was, Dame Peggy was already 78 at the 2001 election. Plus she would have needed a 6% swing to regain Medway then, which was very difficult to achieve at the time.
Apparently she is now the oldest living woman in the UK to have served as an MP. She’s 88 on 12th November.
Quite a battle axe I seem to remember.
(I wonder whether she ever worked in her parents’ pub).
A little bit like a Tory Gwyneth Dunwoody.
Used to be Prices Minister under Ted Heath,
and an Agriculture Minister under Thatcher.
The MP she defeated in 1970 was Anne Kerr (wife of Russell Kerr – also an MP), who tragically died at the age of 48 three years later.
Rebelled on the student vote. Apparently his grandfather was a Fianna Foil MP in the Dail. Drunk on duty. The Tories must wonder what they’ve got – suspect Labour are pretty pleased with the last election here.
Mark Reckless has certainly not done himself any favours so far if he wants to climb the greasy career pole within the Commons. But I don’t think a bit of misbehaviour of the sort he has engaged in will hurt him locally. Labour hung on in a couple of seats in Kent in 2005 with high profile backbenchers, including the rebellious lawyer Bob Marshall-Andrews.
That said, if Reckless has more alcohol trouble it ought to be, and might be, a different story. On this site I have gone out on a limbin the past making observations about MPs who make themselves unfit through drink.
MPs should remember that ordinary people do not drink at working or, usually, whilst working. Even if there is plenty of temptation in the Commons, personally I would expect MPs to discipline themsleves not to use alcohol whilst performing their duties.
The Medway towns, particularly Chatham, used to have a dreadful reputation in relation to drink when there was a naval base here, from which I suspect at least some of the electorate will wish the area to continue to distance itself.
Even if the Lib Dem vote halved and went to Labour, the Tories would be home and dry.
Their share of the vote here last time would be about the same as in 1983, but not as high as 1987 or 1992.
“The Tories must wonder what they’ve got – suspect Labour are pretty pleased with the last election here”
I doubt the Conservative leadership would prefer a Labour MP here to Mark Reckless, even if he does rebel.
And let”s be honest, he won’t be the only MP who gets sloshed in Parliament. The surprising thing is that he actually admitted it.
“Mark Reckless has certainly not done himself any favours so far if he wants to climb the greasy career pole within the Commons”
He may not want to climb the ministerial pole. There are a few new Tory MPs who don’t seem too fussed about promotion to the frontbench. Although a degree of independence may help him get elected to the 1922 Executive Committee in future (he unsuccessfully ran for election to the Executive a few weeks after the GE).
A degree of independence probably isn’t a great hindrance if you want to be select committee chairman either.
The English Democrats had a respectable result in the general election polling 2,182 votes or 4.5%. The absence of UKIP and BNP must have helped them a bit.
1997-2010 MP Bob Marshall Andrews has just published a book titled “Off Message” about his “rebellious” parliamentary experience.
Hi Pete,
Would you be able to reconstruct how the old
Rochester and Chatham seat (1979) voted in 2010?
(also, a long shot,
how it voted in 1983?)
Thanks
Joe
A quick look at the constituencies of the Conservative MPs who beat the Cameroons yesturday suggests a tendancy towards the plebian.
There are exceptions inevitably – Wokingham, Richmond Park, Beckenham for example.
But I wonder if Pete could compare them to the ‘average’ Conservative constituency.
I’m afraid I don’t understand the question Richard.
I hadn’t seen Joe’s post on here from yesterday. I don’t have stats to enable me instantly to do that but I will try and come up with something. It would be interesting to see how that old seat voted not just in those elections but also in the Labour landslide elections.
Pete
Average graduates per rebel constituency compared with average graduates per Conservative constituencies as a whole.
And number rebel constituencies compared with total number of Conservative constituencies per county.
IIRC there were four Conservative MPs from north Kent who rebelled – that’s what got me thinking.
Oh I see what you mean now. Am not quite with it at the moment. It certainly does look that way looking through the list. This might be partly a consequence of it being more typically newly elected MPs and these are more likely to represent marginal seats which tend by definition to be more socially downmarket than safe Tory seats
Would an explanation for the English Democrats’ relatively impressive showing here in 2010 be because of the absence of a UKIP candidate due to Reckless’ Eurosceptic views? As we know, Reckless led last night’s rebellion against Cameron.
I don’t know but I’d guess that for the ED to do as well as they did in 2010 their candidate would have to be someone who is relatively well-known locally. This is the first time I’ve noticed how well they did in fact.
As it turns out, the English Democrats’ candidate here in 2010, Ron Sands who got 2, 182 (4.55%) votes is a well-known councillor locally who has been around in Medway for many years. This article confirms he has since joined the Conservatives-
http://peninsulaward.wordpress.com/category/mark-reckless/
If the English Democrats have anything approximating to a local stronghold (not counting Doncaster which is a bit of a freak), then it is North Kent. More specifically it is Dartford, where in the last county council elections they won more votes than Labour, but their strength and activism has spread into some of the other nearby areas. No doubt the absence of a UKIP candidate helped them here as (judging by the result in Chatham) did the absence of the BNP
Doncaster indeed is a bit of an unusual place for the EDs to do well- But that town has something of a turbulent political history. We’re talking about an ex-mining working-class South Yorkshire town here, which has in the past given fourth place in a general election to local personality Martin Williams and a saved deposit, and seen the English Democrats place fourth in both Doncaster seats. The reason for this is simple- Doncaster is one in a long list of what I like to call ‘Politically Volatile Towns’- Others in my opinion are Burnley, Blackburn, Mansfield and Ashfield.
Fifth in Doncaster North maybe OK but you get my point.
We have far too many parties positioned to the right of the Tories for my liking and its making it harder for us to actually win seats. If you are fed up with the Tories you have UKIP, English Democrats and for some the BNP. The Tory leadership need to take a long look at why votes are going to other rightist parties and not ourselves.
Doncaster wouldn’t be anywhere near the top of my list of politically volatile towns. It has given Labour an untroubled time ever since Harold Walker gained the seat from Tony Barber in 1964 & really it’s only the iffy nature of the council which has caused the ED upsurge in local government.
In terms of Mansfield and Ashfield – my home town district – I would give a very similar answer to Barnaby. It’s pretty eccentric to describe them as amongst the most politically volatile towns….and Ashfield isn’t a town anyway, but a collection of different small towns.
Mansfield was safe Labour until the mid-80s, during which the Tories came very close to taking the parliamentary seat. This was entirely due to most local miners being UDM members and very bitter with Scargill. From 1992 onwards, aided by the closure of most of the local pits under the Heseltine closures, Labour recovered a big lead in the town which has continued to this day.
Ashfield had a similar trajectory except for the Tories winning the seat in a by-election in 1977 in the pit of mid-term unpopularity for the Callaghan government. In this it was no different to a rash of other safe Labour towns like Workington, and Labour regained Ashfield and all these other seats safely in 1979.
Ashfield was more a mix of NUM and UDM in the miners’ strike so didn’t see as big a swing against Labour as Mansfield in the 1980s.
From around 2003 onwards, the district councils in both Mansfield and Ashfield became very unpopular locally. Dominated by Labour for decades, they came to be regarded as ineffective and corrupt. In both councils, large numbers of independents started to win seats, and in Ashfield this independent vote was gradually hoovered up by the Lib Dems. They used this base together with Geoff Hoon’s unpopularity to challenge hard for the parliamentary seat. However their chance has gone now, and I do not think any of this had much to do with political volatility as such. The Lib Dems did not have the same kind of success in Mansfield.
For the forseeable future both seats will revert to being somewhere between very safe and pretty safe for Labour.
Are they the type of working class white seat that will move blue a little?
Maybe a little.
However both areas remain quite depressed, Mansfield especially.
I think there’s much more Tory potential in nearby seats like NE Derbyshire, Bolsover and Bassetlaw, because they are more scenic, less focused on a few depressed towns, and therefore are more attractive for middle class commuters to live in.
“Hi Pete,
Would you be able to reconstruct how the old
Rochester and Chatham seat (1979) voted in 2010?”
A bit closer than I expected
Con 24882 43.7%
Lab 20271 35.6%
LD 7509 13.2%
ED 1666 2.9%
BNP 980 1.7%
Grn 782 1.4%
UKIP 749 1.3%
Oth 62 0.1%
Conservative majority 4611 8.1%
Turnout 63.3% electorate c. 90,000
Fairly similar to the national lead overall but of course much lower LD share and higher for both Tory and Labour. This seat was always a pretty good bellwether actually and looks like it still would be
Hi Pete
Thank you very much indeed for this.
This is a fascinating result – Labour actually not doing too badly in 2010 (in the old Rochester and Chatham).
The comparable and actual result in 1979 is this –
Rochester & Chatham
[E] Conservative gain
PE Fenner Conservative 27,574 47.46%
RE Bean Labour 24,886 42.84%
M Black Liberal 5,219 8.98%
J King National Front 417 0.72%
Electorate: 79,872; Turnout: 72.74%;
Majority: 2,688 (4.63%)
The change from 1979 to 2010 is
Con -4.8%
Lab -7.2%
LD +4.2%
This suggests Labour were quite clearly still up on 1979 in the 2005 election.
Last night, I had a political catch up with our former agent and someone else said has any MP ever lost or dropped out then come back
and I said yes of course – an example would be Peggy Fenner,
and possibly Robert Bean aswell.
The February 1974 result is interesting.
So Labour would be only marginally lower in 2010,
and a big Liberal vote I don’t think we saw in this area in the 1980s.
February 1974
Rochester & Chatham
[E] Conservative hold
PE Fenner Conservative 24,326 38.76%
RR Kenward Labour 23,483 37.42%
C Fellowes Liberal 14,945 23.82%
Electorate: 79,106; Turnout: 79.33%;
Majority: 843 (1.34%)
Sorry another post – just noticed the boundaries were unchanged in Feb 1974 so we can go on comparing much further back.
Here’s 1970 – a straight fight between the Tories and Labour.
This would suggest the 1974 results did see a larger than average loss of Tory votes to the Libs than Labour lost.
In fact, it suggests Labour doing rather well in 1979, given the big defeat in 1970.
1970
Rochester & Chatham
[E] Conservative gain
PE Fenner Conservative 30,263 54.84%
AP Kerr Labour 24,922 45.16%
Electorate: 77,279; Turnout 71.41%;
Majority: 5,341 (9.68%)
Dame Peggy Fenner turns 90 on 12th November. Our first female centenarian former MP still seems some way off. Good luck to her.
Agree about Dame Peggy Fenner.
The current boundaries (and also the new ones should they come into effect) substantially favour the Conservatives. While the Conservatives have a clear advantage in an even year in Medway City, Labour should have 1 seat here, and would do if a core Rochester & Chatham seat was created.