Comments on: Richmond Park

By: akmd

akmd — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 17:44:16 +0000

Local Lib Dems are kicking up a fuss over one of the Tory councillors in North Richmond apparently moving to Barbados to take up a new job and not resigning his council seat. He wasn’t been at a council meeting since November. This is one of the more marginal Tory wards in the borough so a by-election here would certainly be interesting.

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Mon, 02 Jan 2012 01:14:13 +0000

Ham and Petersham would be LD.
(The section from Richmond Hill is pretty tiny but could make a difference in a close election).

I think Mortlake would be Conservative because of the size of the majority there.

West Twickenham would I’m pretty sure be LD.

By the way, West Twick is the ward the Tories mis-read badly in 2006, assuming it was safe because Labour were second, and that the opposition would presumably be fragmented. In fact the LD swing came from way behind (17%) and they didn’t realise what had hit them until the count.
I suppose an equally big Labour (or Con) swing could happen there,
but it looks like an LD-Con marginal for some time to come.

By: akmd

akmd — Mon, 02 Jan 2012 00:59:31 +0000

Thanks for your insight, Barnaby. I suppose a LD recovery can not be ruled out although demographics trends are not in their favour as we all know. I’d imagine that they’ll hold up better in their remaining London councils Kingston and Sutton but these two boroughs do have wards that Labour especially in the former. The Mayoral elections this May will give us some idea of how these areas are likely to vote in the 2014 locals.

I have a question about ward boundaries. Prior to 2002, I understand that you had Mortlake, Ham & Petersham and Richmond Hill as 3 of the wards making up Richmond council. After that period, all 3 wards were subject to major boundary changes partly in an attempt by the LDs to shut Labour out of the borough. If these wards still existed in their pre-2002 form, which parties would probably have them now?

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Sun, 01 Jan 2012 23:42:13 +0000

Haven’t decided re myself.

The General Election on the same day worked in favour of the Conservatives in some wards, and in favour of the Lib Dems in others.

A leveller effect.

By: Barnaby Marder

Barnaby Marder — Sun, 01 Jan 2012 23:38:12 +0000

Well AKMD I do think it’s too early to be sure. Of course being a senior figure in the local Labour Party I should really predict an outright Labour victory LOL but I’d tend towards further Conservative gains because of switchers from LD to Lab. After all some voters in Twickenham probably voted LD on Vince Cable’s coattails (though there was ticket-splitting) and that won’t happen in 2014; they will find their seat in Hampton N particularly hard to hold, but other split wards will be dicey for them too, as probably would be Hampton ward which should really be a Conservative target. Even Fulwell & Hampton Hill elected a Tory councillor in a split in 2002 & shouldn’t be ruled out, and as Nick Lait said there are also vulnerable LDs on my side of the river too (in fact all of the remaining ones). Probably only Teddington ward is anything like safe for them if things are going badly (are you standing anywhere Joe?).

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Sun, 01 Jan 2012 22:07:04 +0000

I agree the Tories have struggled to get Whitton back.
I had thought it should be a relatively easy target ever since the big defeat in 1986, but it hasn’t been easy – we should have got at least split representation in 1998 and didn’t, and it has only been split in the winning years of 2002 and 2010.
I think Nick Lait touched on this a long time ago, but I was canvassing there in 2006 and it always under-delivers on polling day. (for C)

Labour should add on several points in 2014 but it’s hard to see where they can concentrate this enough to actually win seats – it’s more that point, not that they wouldn’t have done well.

By: akmd

akmd — Sun, 01 Jan 2012 22:04:38 +0000

What do you think will happen, Barnaby? Are the Conservatives likely to achieve an increased majority or will the LDs manage to hold their own and possibly gain a few seats? If the latter scenario does occur, where are gains most likely to come from?

By: Barnaby Marder

Barnaby Marder — Sun, 01 Jan 2012 20:11:21 +0000

I’m surprised that the Conservatives have found it so hard to do so up to now. It isn’t classic LD territory on the face of it.
Nick Lait deserves to be taken seriously – he is a former Councillor & surely knows the area well. But there’s no precedent for Labour winning Whitton. It does have some similarities with Hounslow South ward over the borough boundary but is still much more white-owner-occupier-dominated. Heathfield is more deprived & has at least once (although over 40 years ago) been won by Labour. I think personally as Nick implies Labour has more potential in W.Twickenham, even on its existing boundaries, which are radically different from the pre-2002 ones, than in Whitton. Although there ought logically to be a noteworthy rebound of the Labour vote in Twickenham in particular, it’s asking a lot of Labour to be serious contenders in any ward in the borough at the moment, and it would not be in the least ignominious if Labour draws another blank in Richmond-upon-Thames in 2014. Anything better than a good increase in share of the vote would be a great bonus.

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Sun, 01 Jan 2012 18:41:04 +0000

I’d have thought we could make Whitton 3 Con.

By: akmd

akmd — Sun, 01 Jan 2012 14:09:14 +0000

I agree that the 2014 locals in Richmond are going to be very interesting indeed. As you say, the rather contrived Ham, Petersham & Richmond Riverside ward is very marginal these days (presumably because of the Richmond Hill area). Were this latter area to be removed and the ward was restored back to Ham & Petersham, I think the LDs could probably hold on although I’m not sure if this area has seen the sort of demographic shifts that have occurred in Mortlake which was a rather similar sort of area although perhaps the addition of Barnes Common may have been a greater factor in recent results that particular ward. The LDs also still have a councillor in Kew, an area that was one of their long-standing areas of strength on this side of the borough but it now seems that the pro-Tory trends seen elsewhere on the Richmond side have been replicated here too. I wouldn’t rule out a LD comeback here but further demographic trend will make their task harder.

As for the Twickenham side of the borough, I certainly think Labour have a good chance of being in the running for the Heathfield and Whitton areas and also West Twickenham which was traditionally one of their strongest parts of the borough. None of the three have seen the sort of demographic change that has been taking place in the areas making up the Richmond Park seat. I would guess that this is because that these areas are further out away from the city and contain less desirable housing and amenities. They are rather similar in character to wards in nearby Hounslow which are generally good territory for Labour. If the party is successful in gaining seats in this part of the borough, then the LDs chances of regaining the council are finished. I also think the Twickenham wards closest to Richmond could well move further into a pro-Tory direction though St. Margarets may remain mostly LD for a while longer at least. This borough will definitely be one of the most crucial areas to watch in 2014.