The UKPollingReport election guide for 2010 has now been archived and all comments will shortly be closed. The new Election Guide for the 2015 election is now online at http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide. The old site is archived at the UK Web Archive.
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Redcar

2010 Results:
Conservative: 5790 (13.8%)
Labour: 13741 (32.75%)
Liberal Democrat: 18955 (45.17%)
BNP: 1475 (3.52%)
UKIP: 1875 (4.47%)
TUSC: 127 (0.3%)
Majority: 5214 (12.42%)

Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 19968 (51.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 7852 (20.2%)
Conservative: 6954 (17.9%)
Other: 4087 (10.5%)
Majority: 12116 (31.2%)

Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 6954 (17.9%)
Labour: 19968 (51.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 7852 (20.2%)
BNP: 985 (2.5%)
UKIP: 564 (1.5%)
Other: 2538 (6.5%)
Majority: 12116 (31.2%)

2001 Result
Conservative: 9583 (25.1%)
Labour: 23026 (60.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 4817 (12.6%)
Other: 772 (2%)
Majority: 13443 (35.2%)

1997 Result
Conservative: 11308 (23.1%)
Labour: 32972 (67.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 4679 (9.6%)
Majority: 21664 (44.2%)

Boundary changes:

Profile:

portraitCurrent MP: Ian Swales (Liberal Democrat) born 1953, Leeds. Educated at Ashville College and UMIST. Accountant and Management consultant. Contested Redcar 2005.

2010 election candidates:
portraitSteve Mastin (Conservative) History teacher.
portraitVera Baird(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
portraitIan Swales (Liberal Democrat) born 1953, Leeds. Educated at Ashville College and UMIST. Accountant and Management consultant. Contested Redcar 2005.
portraitMartin Bulmer (UKIP)
portraitKevin Broughton (BNP)
portraitHannah Walter (TUSC)

2001 Census Demographics

Total 2001 Population: 90926
Male: 48%
Female: 52%
Under 18: 24%
Over 60: 22.6%
Born outside UK: 2.2%
White: 98.7%
Asian: 0.7%
Mixed: 0.4%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 82.4%
Muslim: 0.6%
Full time students: 2.5%
Graduates 16-74: 10.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 37.4%
Owner-Occupied: 67.8%
Social Housing: 25.6% (Council: 22%, Housing Ass.: 3.6%)
Privately Rented: 4.7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 5.4%

NB - The constituency guide is now archived and is no longer being updated. The new guide is at http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide

217 Responses to “Redcar”

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  1. Lab maj 5-7000.

  2. Possible result-
    Labour- 20, 388 (48.6%, +15.85%)
    Swales (Lib Dem)- 13, 776 (32.8%, -12.37%)
    Tory- 4, 427 (10.5%, -3.3%)
    Others- 3, 355 (7.9%, -0.39%)

    Turnout- 41, 946.
    Majority- 6, 612 (15.7%)

    Swing- +14.11% From Lib Dem to Lab.

  3. wouldn’t it be funny if the majority was 56 in lots of lots of seats all over the country.

    I don’t think the majority will be as much as 6,612 – more like about 2 to 5,000

  4. No Joe I disagree. If the Lib Dem vote falls by a large amount then almost all of that will likely go to Labour, so it would be unlikely that the majority would be that small.

  5. I forwarded the news about Vera Baird and the Police Commissioner job to a few people some weeks ago
    for a giggle

    and someone replied saying these jobs have telephone number salaries.

    Actually, it’s not quite as much as I though – according to the BBC this evening, from a report in Thames Valley, they range from £65,000 to about double that.

  6. The irony is perhaps this- If Baird is elected, she will probably earn more from being a Police Commissioner than she did from being an MP.

  7. Yes but not as much as she can earn as a QC.

  8. I’m at the count now, and lib dems are quietly confident.
    Looks like a double bomb for Vera Baird.
    It felt good on the ground today, sticking labels on and handing out leaflets on the beech.

    This shows the polls are just wrong and we have stupendous momentum, and a 15,000 majority in Redcar in 2015. We’ll probably win in Middlesbrough and Stockton North aswell.

  9. I’m confused as to whether Gloy was at the count in Cleveland or Northumbria as of course Vera Baird is the candidate in the latter. Also they are counting today

  10. Im not just saying this because im a tory -> but Vera Baird really is a dreadful candidate, she is vague, obviously not mastering any relevant details, and only standing because she couldnt even hold Redcar through caring less than the local LD.

    My wife (who is a Barnaby Marder style labour voter) said she would vote tory for the first time ever.

    Although she would never vote for the tories economic plans the fact the tory was previously involved in the police and obviously knew what he was talking about combined with the fact that there isnt much difference between the two parties on law and order meant that there was no reason for her to vote for Vera Baird.

  11. Gloy Plopwell at an imaginary count that shows Lib Dem stupendous momentum.

    Pretty much the only election Lib Dems can win nowadays :-)

  12. Well indeed and the LIb Dems actually came a very poor fourth in Northumbria and Vera Baird was elected easily on the first count.

  13. Reading Joe R’s comment,
    I wonder whether there is any evidence that the Tories have done a bit better relative to their national position in Police Commissioner elections – it’s hard to compare to anything as the constituences and electoral system are different,
    but it does look like they are down less to Independents vs other parties.
    The LD vote looks pretty dreadful, even in the rural areas.

  14. Congratulations to Vera Baird.
    I would never vote for her myself but couldn’t help feeling sorry for her when she lost Yellowcar so unexpectedly.

  15. It would have been quite something if she had lost – after all, it is all of Tyne & Wear along with Northumberland.

  16. Agree with Swancardian – congratulations to Vera Baird,

    I would have very different views to her of course.

    If you re-read the posts on here before the 2010 election, some people did foresee it actually.

    Cogload said Ladbrokes stopped betting aswell.

  17. Redcar & Cleveland UA has come out top in the white British rankings with 97.60%:

    ht tp://bit.ly/SOxWvG

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