Reading East
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 15461 (35.8%)
Labour: 14611 (33.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 10545 (24.4%)
Other: 2606 (6%)
Majority: 850 (2%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 15557 (35.4%)
Labour: 15082 (34.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 10619 (24.2%)
Green: 1548 (3.5%)
UKIP: 849 (1.9%)
Other: 257 (0.6%)
Majority: 475 (1.1%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 13943 (32%)
Labour: 19531 (44.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 8078 (18.5%)
UKIP: 525 (1.2%)
Green: 1053 (2.4%)
Other: 488 (1.1%)
Majority: 5588 (12.8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 17666 (35.2%)
Labour: 21461 (42.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 9307 (18.5%)
Referendum: 1042 (2.1%)
Other: 744 (1.5%)
Majority: 3795 (7.6%)
Boundary changes: loses parts of the divided wards of Battle and Whitley to Reading West and gains part of Loddon from Maidenhead. A tiny area of Maiden Erlegh is moved into Maidenhead, though this contains less than 30 voters.
Profile: Reading is a commerical centre and commuter town in the Thames Valley in Berkshire. It is an affluent town, home to light, hi tech and service industry. It houses many corporate headquarters, including Microsoft, Sage, British Gas and Prudential. Reading East is the more urban of the two Reading seats, taking in the town centre and the eastern and northern suburbs. It covers both the eastern part of the Broough of Reading as well as some of the Reading suburbs that fall under Wokingham District council, such as Woodley and Earley. The seat contains the majority of the University of Reading, which straddles the constituency border, but more importantly the majority of the students.
Reading East was a Conservative seat lost to Labour in the 1997 landslide. The Labour MP, Jane Griffiths, was acrimoniously deselected prior to the 2005 election, following a long standing disagreement with the neighbouring MP, Martin Salter, and infighting within the local Labour party and the new Labour candidate Tony Page was defeated by Conservative Rob Wilson.
Outgoing MP: Robert Wilson(Conservative) born 1965, Oxfordshire. Educated at Reading University. Former member of the SDP, elected to Reading council as a Conservative in 1992, and subsequently served from 2003-2006. First elected as MP for Reading East in 2005. Was successfully sued for libel by Martin Salter in 2005 (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Robert Wilson(Conservative) born 1965, Oxfordshire. Educated at Reading University. Former member of the SDP, elected to Reading council as a Conservative in 1992, and subsequently served from 2003-2006. First elected as MP for Reading East in 2005. Was successfully sued for libel by Martin Salter in 2005 (more information at They work for you)Anneliese Dodds (Labour) born 1978. Educated at Oxford, Doctorate from the LSE. Fellow at LSE. Contested Billericay in 2005. Opposed the war in Iraq.Gareth Epps (Liberal Democrat) Educated at University of Manchester. West Oxfordshire District Councillor from 2000-2006. Reading councillor since 2007. Contested Witney in 2001.Rob White (Green) born 1979. Educated at De Montfort University Leicester. Self employed gardener and grower. Contested Reading East 2005.Ann Zebedee (UKIP)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 100154
Male: 50.6%
Female: 49.4%
Under 18: 20.6%
Over 60: 15.6%
Born outside UK: 15%
White: 86.7%
Black: 3.3%
Asian: 6.4%
Mixed: 1.9%
Other: 1.7%
Christian: 61.9%
Hindu: 1.1%
Muslim: 4.5%
Sikh: 1.1%
Full time students: 11.8%
Graduates 16-74: 31.8%
No Qualifications 16-74: 18.8%
Owner-Occupied: 70.1%
Social Housing: 11.7% (Council: 7.3%, Housing Ass.: 4.4%)
Privately Rented: 15.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 7.7%
Reading East Prediction
Electorate: 71,800
Turnout: 60% (43,080)
Conservatives: 18,524 (43%)
Labour: 12,924 (30%)
Liberal Democrats: 8185 (19%)
Others: 1723 (4%)
Red Bean’s prediction is in line (within 1%) with Electoral Calculus for the Conservatives and LibDems. But Electoral Calculus has Labour on 24.4% and Others on 12.8%.
The Other, including UKIP and Green, votes in this seat were exceptionally low at the last election. Even at the last election they got 6% , and all the indications, e.g. opinion poll data, are that Others will get more next time, even if intention to vote Other is slipping as the election approaches. I think the Greens would be disappointed to lose their deposit, whilst UKIP should get at least 3% (and of course will have ambitions for 5%). So that gives us at least 8% for Other, and I suspect more than that.
In addition, past experience from the 1980s is that Labour does badly in seats which they have lost at the previous election. Specifically, tactical voters go back to voting LIbDem. Particularly in a seat like this where the LibDems have in the past (in the 1980s, albeit yes the boundaries were different) been a good second.
Given the result last time, the LibDems will clearly hope to come second here, and be disappointed if they do not. As the opinion polls stand, the LibDems are likely to have the disappointment of coming third, but given the considerations I have outlined in the previous paragraph they should reasonably expect, given the current state of the national opinion polls and local factors, to get more than 20%.
@ Frederic Stansfield
As someone who lives in Reading, i have noticed that over past elections, that minority parties do not perform well, and that the LibDems do not do well in that election. Also opinion polls are based on random samples and do not take local electoral factros into account, this is also the case with Electoral Calculus which is based on opinion polls and figures, not local politics.
Which constituencies have included central Reading since 1950? (It was obviously in Reading before that)
Harry, I don’t know exact details, but one way or another when Reading has been two seats it has been split fairly much down the middle. However, Reading West/Reading North has so far as I remember usually been the seat with the central area.