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Portsmouth North

2010 Results:
Conservative: 19533 (44.27%)
Labour: 12244 (27.75%)
Liberal Democrat: 8874 (20.11%)
UKIP: 1812 (4.11%)
Green: 461 (1.04%)
English Democrat: 1040 (2.36%)
TUSC: 154 (0.35%)
Majority: 7289 (16.52%)

Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 15542 (38.3%)
Labour: 15474 (38.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 8134 (20.1%)
Other: 1408 (3.5%)
Majority: 68 (0.2%)

Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 14273 (37.8%)
Labour: 15412 (40.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 6684 (17.7%)
UKIP: 1348 (3.6%)
Majority: 1139 (3%)

2001 Result
Conservative: 13542 (36.7%)
Labour: 18676 (50.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 3795 (10.3%)
UKIP: 559 (1.5%)
Other: 294 (0.8%)
Majority: 5134 (13.9%)

1997 Result
Conservative: 17016 (37.6%)
Labour: 21339 (47.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 4788 (10.6%)
Referendum: 1757 (3.9%)
Other: 370 (0.8%)
Majority: 4323 (9.5%)

Boundary changes:

Profile: Note that Rallings & Thrasher`s notional figures have Portsmouth North as a Labour seat, so the mainstream media will treat this as a Labour held seat at the next election.

portraitCurrent MP: Penny Mordaunt (Conservative) Born 1973. Educated at Oaklands RC Comprehensive and Reading University. Runs a media company. Contested Portsmouth North 2005.

2010 election candidates:
portraitPenny Mordaunt (Conservative) Born 1973. Educated at Oaklands RC Comprehensive and Reading University. Runs a media company. Contested Portsmouth North 2005.
portraitSarah McCarthy-Fry (Labour) Born 1955, Portsmouth. Educated at Portsmouth High School. Prior to her election worked as a chartered accountant. Portsmouth councillor 1994-2002. MP for Portsmouth North since 2005. PPS to John Healey 2006-2007, to Geoff Hoon 2007-2008. Parliamentary Under secretary for Children, Schools and Family 2008-2009. Briefly moved to the Department for Communities in June 2009 before becoming Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury a week later following Kitty Usher`s resignation (more information at They work for you)
portraitDarren Sanders (Liberal Democrat) born 1971. Educated at Cambridge University. Lambeth councillor since 2002. Contested Portsmouth North 2001, Streatham 2005.
portraitIain Maclennan (Green) Born 1958, Portsmouth. Educated at Christ`s Hospital and Manchester University. Public health consultant, NHS Hampshire, and former GP and Royal Navy medical officer.
portraitMike Fitzgerald (UKIP) Born 1968. Educated at Oaklands RC Comprehensive, Welbeck College (Army), Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, Hull University and the College of Law. International Business Manager for Global IT company.
portraitDavid Knight (English Democrat) Contested South East region in 2009 European elections.
portraitMick Tosh (TUSC) Former RMT executive member.

2001 Census Demographics

Total 2001 Population: 94532
Male: 48.9%
Female: 51.1%
Under 18: 24.7%
Over 60: 19.7%
Born outside UK: 4.9%
White: 96.9%
Black: 0.3%
Asian: 1.2%
Mixed: 0.7%
Other: 0.9%
Christian: 72.3%
Muslim: 1%
Full time students: 3.2%
Graduates 16-74: 13.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 30.6%
Owner-Occupied: 73.8%
Social Housing: 16% (Council: 11.6%, Housing Ass.: 4.4%)
Privately Rented: 6.7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 20.4%

NB - The constituency guide is now archived and is no longer being updated. The new guide is at http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide

99 Responses to “Portsmouth North”

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  1. 2010

    Labour: 18101
    Conservative: 18091
    Liberal Democrat: 5988
    Other: 1209
    Majority: 10

  2. I’ll have whatever he’s having!!

  3. In these gloomy times it is nice to be able to still laugh. Although still not quite Plopwell, its good to see one of the more “entertaining” posters back !!!

  4. Peter Crerar thinks Tommy Sheridan will defeat the Speaker.

  5. To correct my post above, I think that Speaker prediction was an impersonator of Peter.

    The notional 1979 result here
    (on the 1982-95 boundaries)

    Con 30,139 51.4%
    Lab 23,229 39.6%
    Lib 4,922 8.4%
    Oth 381 0.6%

    C maj 6,910 11.8%

  6. The boundary changes increased a 2311 Conservative majority to nearly 7000.

    The 1983 – 1997 Portsmouth North was more like Portsmouth Langstone which had existed prior to 1974.

    Portsmouth North was formed in 1974 from the part of the Labour seat of Portsmouth West (including Paulsgrove) which did not go into Portsmouth South and the part (including Drayton & Farlington) of the safe Tory seat of Portsmouth Langstone which did not form part of Havant & Waterloo. Portsmouth Langstone straddled both sides of Langstone Harbour and included Haying Island.

  7. Thanks to Peter for that – that is useful.
    It helps explain why the actual result in 1979 was a fairly narrow Tory gain by about 2,000.

    I apologise to him for my post above, as Glasgow was clearly an impersonator.
    Although amusing, that is truly disgusting behaviour.

  8. I don’t think Iain MacIntosh’s post is in the Gloy Plopwell class at all. That’s pretty unfair. It is however difficult to see Labour holding this seat especially with the boundary change – but in the climate hardly impossible.

  9. I suppose the point is that –

    1964 Tories gained Eton & Slough
    1979 Labour gained Glasgow Cathcart
    1983 Labour gained Liverpool Broad Green and notionally ‘gained’ the revised Glasgow Cathcart, Crewe & Nantwick and Birmingham Erdington
    1987 Tories gained Ipswich, Thurrock, Walthamstow and Wolverhampton NE
    1992 Tories gained Aberdeen South
    2001 Labour gained Yns Mons and Dorset South

    Iain may not have been predicting a national swing to Labour but this is a seat which could go against the trend (such as the above) but I do think that Portsmouth North is unlikely to be won by Labour because I see the South coast swinging more to the Tories – leaving only the two Southampton seats and Brighton Pavilion as the only patches of red.

  10. I tend to agree with Peter. If Labour do win any Conservative seats (which I don’t expect to happen), it would probably be more likely to be in a more northerly constituency.
    However, I think Labour is likely to pull back a few seats from the LibDems and Respect next time.

  11. “I don’t think Iain MacIntosh’s post is in the Gloy Plopwell class at all….”

    Iain Mackintosh, I understand, stated that he is not the one who posted last year, and the posts are not as optimistic for Labour as those posts before.

    Even so, I would expect the Conservatives to emerge the clear winners in this seat as they already have it notionally.
    But nothing is certain. Most likely Labour will be a good second.

    Gloy Plopwell must have been a horrible name to endure at school.

  12. I apologize to Iain Mackintosh but my point that his prediction isn’t in the Gloy Plopwell class still stands. However it does seem over-optimistic as things stand, let alone as they stood not long ago.

    I strongly suspect Joe that Gloy Plopwell isn’t his real name.
    :)

  13. I can see this happening,
    as the LDs took a lot of Labour votes last time.

    C 45%
    Lab 40%
    LD 13%
    UKIP 2%

  14. Barnaby maybe right. “Golly we plop” as an anagram would appear to confirm that too.

    I think the LD vote will retreat here, and some go to Labour, but Conservatives should take this clearly – probably more than what I posted above.

    Not certain though – LDs will also surely redirect attention to holding Portsmouth South, held by Mike Hancock, who, as I’ve said, I do actually have some time for.

  15. I expect only a very small swing to the tories here basicly because I cant begin to imagine where the Tories live in this hell hole seat i’m amazed the Tories top 20% in a good year !

  16. Labour were beaten by the Greens in the Euro elections in Portsmouth, which is a pretty bad result given the nature of the Portsmouth North seat which isn’t exactly strong territory for the Greens:

    C – 10,778 (27.2%)
    UKIP – 7,572 (19.1%)
    LD – 6,506 (16.4%)
    Green – 4,408 (11.1%)
    Lab – 4,016 (10.1%)
    BNP – 2,657 (6.7%)

    In the 2008 local elections, the Greens only contested 2 of the 7 wards comprising Portsmouth North, Baffins and Nelson, polling 4.3% and 3.9% respectively.

    Labour’s share of the vote in 2008 local elections in each ward:

    Baffins – 8.1%
    Copnor – 11.8%
    Cosham – 21.3%
    Drayton & Farlington – 7.1%
    Hilsea – 18.9%
    Nelson – 28.4%
    Paulsgrove – 39.1%

  17. I’m sure this question has been asked before, but does anybody know why EU elections are counted by local authority rather than be parliamentary constituency?

    In 1999 we got the results by costituency and frankly the data collected was far more interesting than the local authority figures we have got in both 2004 and 2009.

    For some reason, they switched to local authority results in 2004 and although some people seemed to think we’d be back to constituency results in 2009, dissapointingly we continued only to get local authority results.

    In Norwich for example, the BBC used the EU election data to talk up the Greens ahead of the Norwich North by-election as they did so well in the borough in the EU elections.

    But because the EU data was not broken down into constituencies, they didn’t notice that the Green performance had come mostly from Norwich SOUTH, and that in the by-election the Norwich North constituency contained some much more Tory areas from outside the local authority. This lead to some people getting a distorted picture of what might happen in the by-election when any closer inspction of the Eu results would have shown that the Greens had no chance.

    Any chance we can get back to constituency results in 2014?

  18. I think it could be something to do with no other elections on the same day in 1999,
    but I agree with you it was far more interesting and useful.

    We want to know how seats broke down don’t we?
    But I’m starting to think Euro elections are pretty useless indicators anyway – as they are now so fragmented, but in 1999 they weren’t, so the constituency results were interesting.

    Nobody really expects the Tories to poll 28% and Labour 16%, but constituency results would still be of interest.

  19. I think actually, when Iain Mackintosh said he wasn’t the one who posted optimistic predictions (in 2007) he was cryptically saying he hadn’t posted overly optimistic comments, not that he was a different person,
    although the Iain/Ian certainly keeps us guessing.

  20. I agree with you Joe. The EU elections don’t really tell us anything anymore-if it was ever so.

    Certainly, they became pretty irrelevant once PR was introduced and caused the fracture of the party system. Interesting for professors in the universities I’m sure, but a complete bore for everyone else I’m afraid.

    In fact though, there needs to be no other election on the same day as the Euro’s anyway because the local elections naturally occur in May and the Euros come about in June. So if the Euros are held on the same day as other elections, it is really only because the government has decreed it (often for their own political ends). So perhaps we should stop this ridiculous practice of cramming all our different elections onto one day. It has come to no good each time it has been done.

  21. I think the Euro results are interesting to a certain extent. In the last one it revealed where Labour’s vote comes from when they’re at absolutely rock bottom for example, and it also gives clues to where the minor parties such as UKIP and Greens might do well in the future.

    Also, tactical voting doesn’t take place in the Euro elections as we know, and the next election will probably be the first one for a while where tactical voting is not an important issue.

  22. “Also, tactical voting doesn’t take place in the Euro elections as we know”

    Yes, I think that is the interesting part of it.

  23. It also shows that PR doesn’t really lead to the Lib Dems getting a massive number of extra seats. It merely causes a lot of LD voters to drift off and vote for even smaller parties.

  24. Yes I would agree with that, the main beneficiaries being the Greens.

    Interesting that the worst LD performance in a Euro election was 1989 when the Greens came third (pushing the LD’s into third place).

  25. Yes, that was hilarious.
    Apparently in the House of Commons the follow week people greeted Paddy Ashdown as “Mr 6%”

  26. Conservative: 19500
    Labour: 13500
    Liberal Democrat: 6000
    Other: 1500
    Majority: 6000

  27. I think that could be about right, now.
    Perhaps slightly higher numerical votes – i.e. turnout.

  28. I would have thought the Lib Dems would be a bit higher than that –

    Cons 19500
    Lab 13000
    LD 7500
    Others 2500

  29. Our wonderful city council, Lib run, has’nt cleared even major side roads such as Chichester road.Oh how glad i am that i pay so much council tax for so little. ofcourse i’ll rush to vote Lib at the elections!

  30. Mick Tosh has been selected for TUSC (aka, “son of NO2EU”)

  31. The new constituency contains a large area of Baffins ward previously in Portsmouth South and with a significant Lib Dem vote. In addition Nelson ward used to be solidly Labour and has become a 3-way marginal in the last 3 years. A former labour now Lib Dem councillor is defending his seat in Nelson so expect much high LD activity in this seat than in 2005.
    Sarah McCarty-Fry can rely on all Portsmouth South Labour members supporting her but they have very few active members under 60. With only 2 labour councillors left and no win in 2008, It really is a question of how low her vote will be.
    Penny Mordant will win comfortably. She is very popular with Conservatives and if things are going well for the Conservatives on the day her majority could be 7-8,000.

  32. Dear UKPR,

    As you state this is a non-partisan site, could I ask how I can get some text up against my name to give people an idea of my background, alongside the other candidates please. In addition, please would you correct the spelling of my surname. For the record:

    “Mike FitzGerald (UK Independence Party) Born 1968. Educated at Oaklands RC Comprehensive, Welbeck College (Army), Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, Hull University and the College of Law. International Business Manager for Global IT company. Married with 3 children.”

    For the record, any Conservatives in Portsmouth North should take the time to review the comprehensive policies of UKIP. Apart from being pro-UK, moderate and pure common sense, you will also find they are true to real conservative ideals.

    Local Associations should reflect on how they have been treated by Central Office and why life will improve with England as a sub-divided region under the Franco-German Socialist EU. Specifically why Portsmouth will improve as our Defence is “integrated” and controlled by Brussels, leaving the Dockyard at grave risk of closure when the RN is assimilated into the Euro Navy and shore operations are “streamlined” to Brest or Hamburg. Cameron has made clear his way forward is the EU, but renegotiation of key national interests is an idea that can only be honestly considered by those who have no understanding of the EU and its operations. Since EEC membership began, the UK has slipped from being the 3rd largest economy in the World to the 7th and it is still falling. A vote for any Pro-EU party is a vote against your country, its proud history and its future greatness. A vote for the UKIP is a vote against multiculturalism and political correctness, and a vote for the UK to regain its sovereignty and start being run for the benefit of its own people.

    Should you want the chance to vote for a serious candidate, with real business experience and strong family values, who is unquestioningly patriotic, and who will serve the people and not the central party, you now have it.

    Honesty and courage are two qualities we want in our politicians. But is it also needed in our people. I ask you to honestly look at Conservative policy and ask if it is want you want for you country. Then have the courage to break with habit and vote for the candidate and Party who will fight for the country, its people and our united future.

    Yours sincerely,

    Mike FitzGerald
    UK Independence Party
    PPC for Portsmouth North
    “For a Strong United Kingdom”
    http://www.mikefitzgerald.org.uk
    http://www.UKIP.org

  33. Barry Bennett has been selected as BNP candidate here

  34. Cons Hold= 6,000 maj

  35. Con Gain

    Maj 2100

  36. Con maj 7,000

  37. Con maj 4000

  38. CON HOLD. definitely a larger majority than Neily reckons

  39. I have seen Penny Mordaunt on TV more than any other new MP over the last couple of weeks , mind you I see she was running a media company before being elected so a bit of self publicity should be an easy task.

  40. I like her,
    she’s not a dropped in A lister, but has local connections and fought the seat twice.
    I understand she also worked in a health/care job
    at some other time

    A bit sorry for Sarah McCarthy-Fry who also seemed quite good.

    A bit surprised the LD vote held up – but perhaps this was a bit of a non contest being notionally a Tory seat or very marginal seat anyway, so they avoided the squeeze.

  41. Yes she comes across well….hopefully she’ll be here for a long time to come.

  42. I think the Labour vote would be about 4% below what it was in 1992 here,
    which is quite a substantial reversal of the successes Labour enjoyed here,
    although 1992 was itself a substantial improvement.

  43. Does anybody know which of the current wards in Portsmouth formed Portsmouth Langston?
    I assume that it combined what became Havant DC with Drayton & Farlington, Copnor and Baffins
    While Portsmouth South would be; Central Southsea, Milton, St Jude, Eastney & Cranswater.
    And Portsmouth West would be; Charles Dickens Ward, Cosham, Paulsgrove, St Thomas’s, Nelson and Hillsea.
    Which of the three constituencies would Fratton have been included in? Langston, South or West.
    I also assume that Portsmouth West was much better for Labour than North and may have voted Labour in 1979, possibly 1992 and certainly 2010. On the other hand, Portsmouth Langston would have voted Conservative in Feb and Oct 1974 and would likely to have been held by the Conservatives in 1997, 2001, 2005 and 2010?

  44. Langstone also would have included Cosham and Paulsgrove. Portsmouth West was HIlsea, Nelson, Charles Dickens and Fratton. South was those you mentioned plus St Thomas

  45. UKPR notionals:

    Portsmouth East:

    Con: 20,814
    LD: 17,419
    Lab: 8,419
    UKIP: 1,548

    Con maj: 3,395 (7.5%)

    Portsmouth West:

    Con: 17,324
    LD: 13,841
    Lab: 11,314
    UKIP: 1,670

    Con maj: 3,483 (7.5%)

  46. Correction: the Portsmouth East percentage majority is 6.8%.

  47. Will be great to finally see the back of Mike Handycock.

    Maybe he would have retired or been defeated anyway.

  48. Rather cruel on Labour that they come out as 3rd in both East and West. I guess they have a slight chance of winning West, but 13% is a long way back, even if there is a substantial LD vote to squeeze.

  49. Labour might have won Portsmouth West in 1997 and/or 2001.

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