Portsmouth North
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 15542 (38.3%)
Labour: 15474 (38.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 8134 (20.1%)
Other: 1408 (3.5%)
Majority: 68 (0.2%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 14273 (37.8%)
Labour: 15412 (40.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 6684 (17.7%)
UKIP: 1348 (3.6%)
Majority: 1139 (3%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 13542 (36.7%)
Labour: 18676 (50.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 3795 (10.3%)
UKIP: 559 (1.5%)
Other: 294 (0.8%)
Majority: 5134 (13.9%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 17016 (37.6%)
Labour: 21339 (47.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 4788 (10.6%)
Referendum: 1757 (3.9%)
Other: 370 (0.8%)
Majority: 4323 (9.5%)
Boundary changes
Profile: Note that Rallings & Thrasher`s notional figures have Portsmouth North as a Labour seat, so the mainstream media will treat this as a Labour held seat at the next election.
Current MP: Sarah McCarthy-Fry (Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates:
Penny Mordaunt (Conservative)
Darren Sanders (Liberal Democrat) born 1971. Educated at Cambridge University. Lambeth councillor since 2002. Contested Portsmouth North 2001, Streatham 2005.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 94532
Male: 48.9%
Female: 51.1%
Under 18: 24.7%
Over 60: 19.7%
Born outside UK: 4.9%
White: 96.9%
Black: 0.3%
Asian: 1.2%
Mixed: 0.7%
Other: 0.9%
Christian: 72.3%
Muslim: 1%
Full time students: 3.2%
Graduates 16-74: 13.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 30.6%
Owner-Occupied: 73.8%
Social Housing: 16% (Council: 11.6%, Housing Ass.: 4.4%)
Privately Rented: 6.7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 20.4%
50 Responses
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Ruislip Northwood
The result in Copnor is pretty impressive for the LDs no doubt about that but there were very specific local issues relating to the closure of a local fire station and the lD candidate was a (former?) fireman himself. Effectively it was a refernedum on that issue. While it is a very bad result for the Tories it should be borne in mind that this is a ward that Labour could win in happier times for them and must have been competetive in while they have won the parliamentary seat.
February 8th, 2008 at 8:37 pmTherefore, unless anyone believes that this is likely to translate into a massively increased LD vote in the parliamentary seat in a year or two’s time, as far as considering the prospects of the main contenders in this seat is concerned - the party of the sitting MP got 10% here.
It was a shocking result for the tories but I can’t see it having any impact on the next general election. Any chance that McCarthy-Fry had of holding this went up in smoke with the Labour split on Portsmouth council.
February 8th, 2008 at 8:41 pmTwickenham (& Richmond Park,Windsor)
No question this is a bad result for Tories (and Labour).
I hope it is a local issue that won’t reflect more generally on the seat.
A larger than expected Lib Dem vote persisting here could affect who wins.
With Penny Mordaunt as Tory candidate (did spade work in 2005), and the very tight margin already, I would have thought this could be won by several thousand votes in the event, with the LDs squeezed.
Labour’s prospects in this seat don’t look very good. It would take an election for them to actually improve significantly over 2005 - in the sense that they picked up more LD defectors than Tories did.
February 9th, 2008 at 7:01 pmThis seat has a notional Labour majority of 315 or 0.8% on the Rallings and Thrasher official figures (also in the Almanac).
June 25th, 2008 at 9:48 pmIt is in my opinion therefore not a true critical marginal as Labour could lose it and retain an overall majority - it is no.5 on the national Conservative target list.
Twickenham (& Richmond Park,Windsor)
The Lib Dem vote could collapse here, although I guess it would remain above 10%.
June 25th, 2008 at 11:36 pmLabour should take some of these votes, but it looks like the Tories should get this by 4-5,000.
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