Portsmouth North
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 15542 (38.3%)
Labour: 15474 (38.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 8134 (20.1%)
Other: 1408 (3.5%)
Majority: 68 (0.2%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 14273 (37.8%)
Labour: 15412 (40.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 6684 (17.7%)
UKIP: 1348 (3.6%)
Majority: 1139 (3%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 13542 (36.7%)
Labour: 18676 (50.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 3795 (10.3%)
UKIP: 559 (1.5%)
Other: 294 (0.8%)
Majority: 5134 (13.9%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 17016 (37.6%)
Labour: 21339 (47.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 4788 (10.6%)
Referendum: 1757 (3.9%)
Other: 370 (0.8%)
Majority: 4323 (9.5%)
Boundary changes
Profile: Note that Rallings & Thrasher`s notional figures have Portsmouth North as a Labour seat, so the mainstream media will treat this as a Labour held seat at the next election.
Current MP: Sarah McCarthy-Fry (Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates:
Penny Mordaunt (Conservative)
Darren Sanders (Liberal Democrat) born 1971. Educated at Cambridge University. Lambeth councillor since 2002. Contested Portsmouth North 2001, Streatham 2005.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 94532
Male: 48.9%
Female: 51.1%
Under 18: 24.7%
Over 60: 19.7%
Born outside UK: 4.9%
White: 96.9%
Black: 0.3%
Asian: 1.2%
Mixed: 0.7%
Other: 0.9%
Christian: 72.3%
Muslim: 1%
Full time students: 3.2%
Graduates 16-74: 13.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 30.6%
Owner-Occupied: 73.8%
Social Housing: 16% (Council: 11.6%, Housing Ass.: 4.4%)
Privately Rented: 6.7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 20.4%
“I don’t think Iain MacIntosh’s post is in the Gloy Plopwell class at all….”
Iain Mackintosh, I understand, stated that he is not the one who posted last year, and the posts are not as optimistic for Labour as those posts before.
Even so, I would expect the Conservatives to emerge the clear winners in this seat as they already have it notionally.
But nothing is certain. Most likely Labour will be a good second.
Gloy Plopwell must have been a horrible name to endure at school.
I apologize to Iain Mackintosh but my point that his prediction isn’t in the Gloy Plopwell class still stands. However it does seem over-optimistic as things stand, let alone as they stood not long ago.
I strongly suspect Joe that Gloy Plopwell isn’t his real name.
I can see this happening,
as the LDs took a lot of Labour votes last time.
C 45%
Lab 40%
LD 13%
UKIP 2%
Barnaby maybe right. “Golly we plop” as an anagram would appear to confirm that too.
I think the LD vote will retreat here, and some go to Labour, but Conservatives should take this clearly - probably more than what I posted above.
Not certain though - LDs will also surely redirect attention to holding Portsmouth South, held by Mike Hancock, who, as I’ve said, I do actually have some time for.
I expect only a very small swing to the tories here basicly because I cant begin to imagine where the Tories live in this hell hole seat i’m amazed the Tories top 20% in a good year !