Portsmouth North
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 15542 (38.3%)
Labour: 15474 (38.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 8134 (20.1%)
Other: 1408 (3.5%)
Majority: 68 (0.2%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 14273 (37.8%)
Labour: 15412 (40.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 6684 (17.7%)
UKIP: 1348 (3.6%)
Majority: 1139 (3%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 13542 (36.7%)
Labour: 18676 (50.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 3795 (10.3%)
UKIP: 559 (1.5%)
Other: 294 (0.8%)
Majority: 5134 (13.9%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 17016 (37.6%)
Labour: 21339 (47.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 4788 (10.6%)
Referendum: 1757 (3.9%)
Other: 370 (0.8%)
Majority: 4323 (9.5%)
Boundary changes:
Profile: Note that Rallings & Thrasher`s notional figures have Portsmouth North as a Labour seat, so the mainstream media will treat this as a Labour held seat at the next election.
Outgoing MP: Sarah McCarthy-Fry (Labour) Born 1955, Portsmouth. Educated at Portsmouth High School. Prior to her election worked as a chartered accountant. Portsmouth councillor 1994-2002. MP for Portsmouth North since 2005. PPS to John Healey 2006-2007, to Geoff Hoon 2007-2008. Parliamentary Under secretary for Children, Schools and Family 2008-2009. Briefly moved to the Department for Communities in June 2009 before becoming Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury a week later following Kitty Usher`s resignation (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Penny Mordaunt (Conservative) Born 1973. Educated at Oaklands RC Comprehensive and Reading University. Runs a media company. Contested Portsmouth North 2005.Sarah McCarthy-Fry (Labour) Born 1955, Portsmouth. Educated at Portsmouth High School. Prior to her election worked as a chartered accountant. Portsmouth councillor 1994-2002. MP for Portsmouth North since 2005. PPS to John Healey 2006-2007, to Geoff Hoon 2007-2008. Parliamentary Under secretary for Children, Schools and Family 2008-2009. Briefly moved to the Department for Communities in June 2009 before becoming Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury a week later following Kitty Usher`s resignation (more information at They work for you)
Darren Sanders (Liberal Democrat) born 1971. Educated at Cambridge University. Lambeth councillor since 2002. Contested Portsmouth North 2001, Streatham 2005.
Iain Maclennan (Green)
Mike Fitzgerald (UKIP) 
David Knight (English Democrat) Contested South East region in 2009 European elections.
Mick Tosh (TUSC) Former RMT executive member.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 94532
Male: 48.9%
Female: 51.1%
Under 18: 24.7%
Over 60: 19.7%
Born outside UK: 4.9%
White: 96.9%
Black: 0.3%
Asian: 1.2%
Mixed: 0.7%
Other: 0.9%
Christian: 72.3%
Muslim: 1%
Full time students: 3.2%
Graduates 16-74: 13.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 30.6%
Owner-Occupied: 73.8%
Social Housing: 16% (Council: 11.6%, Housing Ass.: 4.4%)
Privately Rented: 6.7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 20.4%
Conservative: 19500
Labour: 13500
Liberal Democrat: 6000
Other: 1500
Majority: 6000
I think that could be about right, now.
Perhaps slightly higher numerical votes – i.e. turnout.
I would have thought the Lib Dems would be a bit higher than that –
Cons 19500
Lab 13000
LD 7500
Others 2500
Our wonderful city council, Lib run, has’nt cleared even major side roads such as Chichester road.Oh how glad i am that i pay so much council tax for so little. ofcourse i’ll rush to vote Lib at the elections!
Mick Tosh has been selected for TUSC (aka, “son of NO2EU”)
The new constituency contains a large area of Baffins ward previously in Portsmouth South and with a significant Lib Dem vote. In addition Nelson ward used to be solidly Labour and has become a 3-way marginal in the last 3 years. A former labour now Lib Dem councillor is defending his seat in Nelson so expect much high LD activity in this seat than in 2005.
Sarah McCarty-Fry can rely on all Portsmouth South Labour members supporting her but they have very few active members under 60. With only 2 labour councillors left and no win in 2008, It really is a question of how low her vote will be.
Penny Mordant will win comfortably. She is very popular with Conservatives and if things are going well for the Conservatives on the day her majority could be 7-8,000.
Dear UKPR,
As you state this is a non-partisan site, could I ask how I can get some text up against my name to give people an idea of my background, alongside the other candidates please. In addition, please would you correct the spelling of my surname. For the record:
“Mike FitzGerald (UK Independence Party) Born 1968. Educated at Oaklands RC Comprehensive, Welbeck College (Army), Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, Hull University and the College of Law. International Business Manager for Global IT company. Married with 3 children.”
For the record, any Conservatives in Portsmouth North should take the time to review the comprehensive policies of UKIP. Apart from being pro-UK, moderate and pure common sense, you will also find they are true to real conservative ideals.
Local Associations should reflect on how they have been treated by Central Office and why life will improve with England as a sub-divided region under the Franco-German Socialist EU. Specifically why Portsmouth will improve as our Defence is “integrated” and controlled by Brussels, leaving the Dockyard at grave risk of closure when the RN is assimilated into the Euro Navy and shore operations are “streamlined” to Brest or Hamburg. Cameron has made clear his way forward is the EU, but renegotiation of key national interests is an idea that can only be honestly considered by those who have no understanding of the EU and its operations. Since EEC membership began, the UK has slipped from being the 3rd largest economy in the World to the 7th and it is still falling. A vote for any Pro-EU party is a vote against your country, its proud history and its future greatness. A vote for the UKIP is a vote against multiculturalism and political correctness, and a vote for the UK to regain its sovereignty and start being run for the benefit of its own people.
Should you want the chance to vote for a serious candidate, with real business experience and strong family values, who is unquestioningly patriotic, and who will serve the people and not the central party, you now have it.
Honesty and courage are two qualities we want in our politicians. But is it also needed in our people. I ask you to honestly look at Conservative policy and ask if it is want you want for you country. Then have the courage to break with habit and vote for the candidate and Party who will fight for the country, its people and our united future.
Yours sincerely,
Mike FitzGerald
UK Independence Party
PPC for Portsmouth North
“For a Strong United Kingdom”
http://www.mikefitzgerald.org.uk
http://www.UKIP.org