Poplar and Limehouse
2010 Results:
Conservative: 12649 (27.09%)
Labour: 18679 (40%)
Liberal Democrat: 5209 (11.15%)
UKIP: 565 (1.21%)
Green: 449 (0.96%)
English Democrat: 470 (1.01%)
Independent: 519 (1.11%)
Others: 8160 (17.47%)
Majority: 6030 (12.91%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 11929 (34.7%)
Conservative: 7987 (23.2%)
Respect: 7198 (20.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 5099 (14.8%)
Other: 2214 (6.4%)
Majority: 3942 (11.5%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 8499 (21.8%)
Labour: 15628 (40.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 5420 (13.9%)
Green: 955 (2.4%)
Other: 8508 (21.8%)
Majority: 7129 (18.3%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 6758 (19.8%)
Labour: 20862 (61.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 3795 (11.1%)
BNP: 1743 (5.1%)
Other: 950 (2.8%)
Majority: 14104 (41.4%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 5892 (15%)
Labour: 24807 (63.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 4072 (10.4%)
Referendum: 1091 (2.8%)
Other: 3406 (8.7%)
Majority: 18915 (48.2%)
Boundary changes: major changes. The old cross borough seat of Poplar and Canning Town is replaced with a seat entirely drawn from Tower Hamlets, hence the seat loses the Newham parts of the old seat (Canning Town, Custom House and Royal Docks) to West and East Ham. The loss it made up by the gain of St Katherine`s and Wapping and part of Shadwell ward from Bethnal Green and Bow.
Profile: An east London seat covering the Isle-of-Dogs and the Canary Wharf development. To the north it covers Bromley-by-Bow and Mile End, once home to the Jewish community, now dominated by Bangladeshi Muslims. To the west it stretches up to the boundaries of the City of London, and includes the Tower of London.
Poplar and Limehouse is perhaps the most surprising seat on the Conservative target list, requiring a swing of just under 6%, the same sort of figure as more obvious targets like Reading West, Ipswich or Stirling. It has come to this for two main reasons – firstly the rapid gentrification of the area surrounding Canary Wharf, and secondly the rise of Respect and the consequential splitting of the Labour vote.
The seat now contains incredible extremes, from extreme deprivation in the north of the seat to the gleaming skyscrapers and dockside developments of Canary Wharf in the south (although even in the areas surrounding Canary Wharf there are still working class areas). Wards like Bromley-by-Bow are over 70% social housing, mostly Bangladeshi Muslims with around half the population in social classes DE and one in five residents born in Bangladesh. In contrast in Millwall and Wapping there are large proportions of owner-occupiers or private renters, white young professionals looking to move near to Canary Wharf.
Until 2004 the Conservatives had never held a single seat in Tower Hamlets. Even in the Labour rout of 1968 when the Conservatives swept to dominance in unlikely places such as Haringey, Hackney and Lambeth, they failed to take a single seat in Tower Hamlets. They gained a single seat in a 2004 by-election and in 2006 took 7 seats on the council, including all six on the Isle of Dogs. In contrast, the largely Bangladeshi northern part of the seat is a stronghold for Respect, where they hold 8 seats. Whether the seat remains a realistic target probably depends to a great deal on whether Respect continue to take a large slice of Labour`s traditional support in the seat.
The seat contains a number of slices of political history – it was the site of the Wapping Dispute in the 1980s, the Gang of Four made their declaration launching the SDP at David Owen`s Limehouse house in 1981 and in 1993 was the location of the BNP`s first local election victory, when Derek Beackon was briefly elected as a councillor in Millwall.
Current MP: Jim Fitzpatrick(Labour) born 1952, Glasgow. Educated at Holyrood Secondary. A former firefighter. First elected as MP for Poplar and Canning Town in 1997. PPS to Alan Milburn 1999-2001. Government whip 2001-2005. Junior minister in the DPM`s department 2005-2006 and in the DTI since 2006. His departmental responsibilities include the post office and the Daily Telegraph has run a personalised “Stop Jim” campaign against the closure of sub-post offices (more information at They work for you)
Tim Archer (Conservative) Formerly worked in financial services. Tower Hamlets councillor. Contested Poplar and Canning Town in 2005.Jim Fitzpatrick(Labour) born 1952, Glasgow. Educated at Holyrood Secondary. A former firefighter. First elected as MP for Poplar and Canning Town in 1997. PPS to Alan Milburn 1999-2001. Government whip 2001-2005. Junior minister in the DPM`s department 2005-2006 and in the DTI since 2006. His departmental responsibilities include the post office and the Daily Telegraph has run a personalised “Stop Jim” campaign against the closure of sub-post offices (more information at They work for you)
Jonathan Fryer (Liberal Democrat) Born 1950, Manchester. Educated at Manchester Grammar School. Freelance writer and broadcaster. Bromley councillor 1986-1990. Contested Chelsea 1983, Orpington 1987, Leyton 1992. Contested London South-East 1979, 1984, 1994, London 1999, 2004, 2009.
Chris Smith (Green) 
Wayne Lochner (UKIP) Business director.
Andrew Osborne (English Democrat) Born 1961.
George Galloway (Respect) born 1954, Dundee. Educated at Harris Academy. A flamboyant left-winger, talented orator and outspoken critic of Tony Blair and George W Bush. Galloway was first elected to Parliament as the Labour MP for Glasgow Hillhead in 1987, defeating Roy Jenkins. He has long been involved in Palestinian and Arab causes. He opposed the 1991 Gulf war and travelled to Iraq several times, meeting both Saddam Hussein and Tariq Aziz. In 1998 he founded a charity to campaign against sanctions on Iraq. He opposed the Iraq War and in 2003 was expelled from the Labour party for making comments encouraging British troops to refuse to obey illegal orders. Galloway was subsequently involved in the founding of the Respect Party, and was often (incorrectly) identified as its leader. In 2005 he defeated the Labour MP Oona King in Bethnal Green and Bow. In January 2006 he controversially appeared on Celebrity Big Brother.
Jim Thornton (Independent) Educated at Manchester University. Managing director of a property management, investment and development company. Former East Hertfordshire councillor for the Conservative party.
Kabir Mahmud (Independent) Educated at Anglia University. Occupational therapist.
Mohammed Hoque (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 94854
Male: 50.7%
Female: 49.3%
Under 18: 25.4%
Over 60: 11.3%
Born outside UK: 35.3%
White: 53.3%
Black: 7.1%
Asian: 32.8%
Mixed: 2.6%
Other: 4.2%
Christian: 42.1%
Hindu: 0.8%
Jewish: 0.6%
Muslim: 33%
Full time students: 7.3%
Graduates 16-74: 31.2%
No Qualifications 16-74: 32.5%
Owner-Occupied: 29.8%
Social Housing: 50% (Council: 35.4%, Housing Ass.: 14.6%)
Privately Rented: 17.2%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 5.4%
The Conservatives were outpolled by Labour in both the wards they hold, as well as Limehouse & St Katherines/Wapping which they share, in the GLA list vote by what looks like a surprisingly large margin compared with the swing elsewhere in London. This follows a perhaps surprisingly easy hold for Jim Fitzpatrick in the general election. Does someone with better local knowledge than me have an idea why the Tories have particularly underperformed in Docklands? I realise that the GLA constituency is utterly safe for Labour but one would expect Tories to turn out for the list vote which is far from wasted.
Given that this borough never elected a Conservative councillor in its history before 2004 even in its former pre 1965 guise, the real surprise is not that the Conservatives failed to win a ward this year but that they actually HELD two wards in 2010!
Census results, white British 2001 / 2011:
Blackwall & Cubitt Town: 53.6% / 31.7%
Bromley-by-Bow: 33.5% / 21.5%
East India & Lansbury: 46.6% / 27.5%
Limehouse: 44.9% / 29.6%
Mile End East: 39.1% / 24.1%
Millwall: 51.6% / 31.0%
St Katharine’s & Wapping: 49.2% / 41.5%
Shadwell: 31.2% / 23.0%
TOTAL: 43.8% / 28.8%
White overall, Poplar & Limehouse:
2001: 53.3%
2011: 43.5%
White other:
2001: 7.6%
2011: 13.2%
Bangladeshi:
2001: 29.8%
2011: 30.6%
Again it looks very much like a large rise in well-to-do whites from countries other than Britain in the docklands wards.
Yes. The Tories do very well on the Isle of Dogs wards now despite a big drop in the white British population. As you say, the fleeing white British were probably working class Labour voters, replaced by American bankers.
Is gentrification spreading here or is has it mostly finished occuring -> ie will the seat be winnable for the tories in the future
The problem for the Tories is that there are never going to be enough bankers to counteract the tens of thousands living in dingy council flats.
I think there is a limit to potential for gentrification in this seat which it has probably already reached. The rest of the seat is largely made up of housing estates and tower blocks. It lacks the period properties that can be found in parts of Spitalfields and Whitechapel in the neighbouring Bethnal Green and Bow seat. Labour will most likely continue to win comfortably against split opposition.
“will the seat be winnable for the tories in the future”
No. Outside of the 3 wards by the river the Tories have no hope at all. Attempts to spread the gentrification away from the river even a modest distance (Beckton, for example) have largely failed.
Their maximum potential constituency-wide would be 30-35%. To win on that vote share would require Respect and Labour to divide up the Labour-inclined vote almost equally.
Conditions for the Tories will probably never be as propitious as they were in 2010 with Galloway as Respect candidate. They failed to take advantage and won’t win the seat in the future.
The only boundaries the Tories could win on here would be if the boundary commission created an “East London Riverside” seat….drawing the boundaries close to the river on the north and south sides of the Thames. The seat would run from Limehouse to the Isle of Dogs on the north side, and from London Bridge down to Rotherhithe and Surrey Quays on the south side. The Rotherhithe tunnel would count as a link between the two halves.
Con gain.
A few beers earlier.
I like your thinking HH. In fact you could bring the city of London into that equation.
City of London
Tower Hamlets: Blackwall & Cubitt Town, Limehouse, MIllwall, St Katherine’s & Wapping
Southwark: Riverside, Rotherhithe, Surrey Docks
electorate 70,367
Notional result 2010
Con 13544 32.1%
Lab 12603 29.8%
LD 10341 24.5%
Resp 3617 8.6%
Grn 548 1.3%
BNP 492 1.2%
UKIP 446 1.1%
oth 647 1.5%
If we had to draw a seat that fits into the new electorate thresholds (the sombie review as doktorb calls it), we could add Shadwell which has the advantage of making the seat contiguous on the north bank of the Thames.
electorate 79,600
Con 14772 31.0%
Lab 14635 30.7%
LD 10838 22.7%
Resp 5115 10.7%
Grn 601 1.3%
UKIP 501 1.1%
BNP 492 1.0%
oth 748 1.6%
Although there were some disappointing census returns for the Tories in Riverside, Rotherhithe and Surrey Docks. They might have hoped for at least a stabilisation in the white British figures but in fact they declined substantially in percentage terms.
I pretty much agree with everyone here. The Tories will continue to do well around the river while Labour will perform strongly on the estates where 12 people are registered to 2 bedroom flats.
The population of the Millwall ward (which covers the Canary Wharf area) increased from 12,892 to 23,084 between 2001 and 2011. If this is reflected in terms of the electoral roll I wonder whether there might have to be a special local government boundary review to divide the ward in two.
There is a boundary review ongoing in Tower Hamlets now
That sounds like good news for the Conservatives, although it’s possible such a review could corral a lot of their votes into one or 2 safe wards of course.
I’d imagine that this can only be a good thing for the Tories in Tower Hamlets as most of the growth in the borough has been around the river, particularly on the Isle of Dogs. Although this still gives us zero chance anywhere else in the borough.
The boundary review in Tower Hamlets is a good thing as not only is an extra ward created on the Isle of Dogs, but St Katharine’s and Wapping and Limehouse are proposed to lose their worst areas. These are however only draft proposals. (available on the LGBCE website)
Of course the Tories have zero chance elsewhere in the borough, but that was ever the case.