Perth and North Perthshire
2005 Results:
SNP: 15469 (33.7%)
Conservative: 13948 (30.4%)
Labour: 8601 (18.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 7403 (16.1%)
Other: 509 (1.1%)
Majority: 1521 (3.3%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 electionEM631: Name of seat changed from Perth.
2001 Result
Conservative: 11189 (29.6%)
Labour: 9638 (25.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 4853 (12.8%)
SNP: 11237 (29.7%)
Other: 899 (2.4%)
Majority: 48 (0.1%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 13068 (29.3%)
Labour: 11036 (24.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 3583 (8%)
SNP: 16209 (36.4%)
Referendum: 366 (0.8%)
Other: 289 (0.6%)
Majority: 3141 (7.1%)
No Boundary Changes
Current MP: Pete Wishart (SNP) (more information at They work for you)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 89814
Male: 48%
Female: 52%
Under 18: 21.7%
Over 60: 24.5%
Born outside UK: 3.9%
White: 99%
Asian: 0.3%
Mixed: 0.2%
Other: 0.4%
Christian: 65.4%
Full time students: 0%
Graduates 16-74: 21.8%
No Qualifications 16-74: 31.2%
Owner-Occupied: 63.2%
Social Housing: 21.6% (Council: 17%, Housing Ass.: 4.7%)
Privately Rented: 10.9%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 6.9%
175 Responses
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If the tories could take this or one of its neighbours I think it could be a huge morale boost. A huge chunk of blue on Scotland’s electoral map (right in the centre, not on the borders) would begin to look like a mild recovery. Rather the same effect as taking Brecon and Radnorshire in 1992.
September 9th, 2008 at 2:19 pmTwickenham (& Richmond Park,Windsor)
Brecon was a nice gain on the Friday morning of April 10th 1992,
September 9th, 2008 at 2:45 pmit pushed up the projected majority of 19 to 21 and was an unexpected landslide in Wales, visually at least.
Yes I see what you mean. I think a similar flash of blue would do their spirits good this time in Mid Scotland. Winning just one of Aberdeenshire West, Sirling, Perth & Perthshire, Angus or Argyll would suffice. At the moment however, I’m not sure they’ll take any.
September 9th, 2008 at 3:23 pmBradford South
I would have been confident of a Conservative gain here before the last Scottish Parliament elections - but the SNP are doing well at the moment, mostly at the expense of Labour and the Liberal Democrats.
September 9th, 2008 at 6:02 pmAnnabel Goldie was reported in the Herald on Sat 13/9 to be working with her counterpart in Northern Ireland on “bread and butter issues” instead of the constitution in a bid to win seats.
How that might benefit Scottish Conservatives escapes me - it sounds a very strange approach!
September 15th, 2008 at 8:56 amMost likely -
SNP: 19188(41.80 + 8.10%)
Conservative: 16799 (36.59 + 6.19%)
Labour: 4719 (10.28 - 8.42%)
Liberal Democrat: 4688 (10.21% - 5.89%)
Other: 509 (1.1% No Change)
Majority: 2389 (5.20%)
Swing 0.96% swing from Con to SNP
September 15th, 2008 at 12:46 pmDoes anyone know who the Conservative candidate for P&NP is following the selection meeting today?
September 20th, 2008 at 9:19 pmBournemouth West
Its Peter Lyburn, who stood in Dunfermline West in 2007. What surprises me is that it has taken so long for a candidate to be selected here. I would also agree with Peter Crerar’s prediction above.
September 23rd, 2008 at 8:32 amI see that the Politics Home survey predicts this as an SNP hold. I have had a few concerns about some of that survey, but I can believe that one. With the SNP riding high at the moment, they must be favourites to hold on here. However, a lot can happen in 18 months and a Tory gain still cannot be totally ruled out. I’d be very dissapointed if we didn’t gain this seat, as it is probably the only one we will take from the SNP (Angus being technically marginal but probably even more resiliant).
As the Politics Home survey only points to 4 Tory seats in Scotland after the next election (2 of which I’m a bit dubious about) we will have to win seats like this to have any legitemacy north of the border.
September 23rd, 2008 at 9:33 amInteresting, Shaun, I see things the other way: the numbers have this one as the more marginal but I see this one being more resiliant, with Angus perhaps being far more vulnerable. I base that on the new SP boundaries which if my figures are accurate, would create a very marginal seat in the West of Angus (made mostly from North Tayside, but in the Angus Constituency at Westminster) and also on the fact that Pete Wishart seems to have a stronger profile than Mike Weir.
And some of the PoliticsHome results, welcome as they are, do have me going “Eh?”.
Also, I see what you’re saying about legitimacy and a gain in the North East would be a bonus for yourselves, but the main sticking point could be vote share and overall ranking: the PoliticsHome poll would put the Tories on 19% Scotland-wide (based on a 3% increase in the marginals, applied to a Scottish vote share of 15.83%). The SNP would be on 35%, and Labour on 27%. The LibDems would fall to 14%, so that would move the Tories up to third place (in line with Holyrood and European elections).
Now, that’s an improvement on the current third place, but all through the Thatcher/Major years, the Tories were at least in second place on votes and seats - assuming a Tory Government in 2010, it would be the first time ever that the Conservatives had won a General Election while in third place or lower in Scotland. Expect that to be mentioned eighteen months from now.
September 28th, 2008 at 10:09 pmPages: « 1 … 8 9 10 11 [12] Show All