Penistone and Stocksbridge
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 19074 (47%)
Liberal Democrat: 10225 (25.2%)
Conservative: 9331 (23%)
Other: 1960 (4.8%)
Majority: 8849 (21.8%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 6890 (15%)
Labour: 23477 (51.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 12234 (26.7%)
BNP: 2010 (4.4%)
UKIP: 1273 (2.8%)
Majority: 11243 (24.5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 7801 (18.3%)
Labour: 24170 (56.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 9601 (22.6%)
UKIP: 964 (2.3%)
Majority: 14569 (34.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 7707 (14.5%)
Labour: 30150 (56.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 13699 (25.8%)
Referendum: 1468 (2.8%)
Majority: 16451 (31%)
Boundary changes:
Profile: By the standards of South Yorkshire, one of Labour`s most reliable bedrocks in England, this is almost marginal. Labour have below 50% of the vote, no councillors in the seat and it is only an almost even divide of opposition support between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats that prevents this appearing much closer.
The seat covers the north-western suburbs of Sheffield and the steel town of Stocksbridge – set north-west of Sheffield on the edge of the moors. The northern part of the seat drawn from the Borough of Barnsley covers the rural villages in the foothills of the pennines around the market town of Penistone and, to the east, the former mining village of Dodworth. Most of the seat is made up of traditional industrial areas, loyal to Labour, though with the decline of coal and steel and the old allegiences that went with it, there is more new build housing and commuters into Sheffield and Barnsley.
In the southern part of the seat, drawn from the dismembered Sheffield Hillsborough, the Liberal Democrats are the main challengers to Labour and perform strongly at the local level. In the northern part of the seat, transferred from Barnsley West and Penistone, Penistone itself has tended to be a good area for the Conservatives – at least, by the low standards of Tories in South Yorkshire. The future of this seat will largely depend on whether one of the parties can successfully position themselves as the alternative to Labour in this seat.
Current MP: Angela Smith(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Spencer Pitfield (Conservative) born in Kent. Educated in South Africa and received a doctorate in performance practice from Sheffield University. Music teacher. Hertsmere borough councillor 2001-2008. Contested Sheffield Hallam in 2005.
Ian Cuthbertson (Liberal Democrat) born West Yorkshire. Educated at Bradford Grammar School and Bradford University. York councillor 2003-2007. Contested Dewsbury 2001, Selby 2005.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 84584
Male: 48.7%
Female: 51.3%
Under 18: 20.8%
Over 60: 22.3%
Born outside UK: 2.1%
White: 98.4%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 0.7%
Mixed: 0.5%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 80.2%
Full time students: 2.1%
Graduates 16-74: 16.8%
No Qualifications 16-74: 31.3%
Owner-Occupied: 75.6%
Social Housing: 18.5% (Council: 17.5%, Housing Ass.: 1.1%)
Privately Rented: 3.8%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 5%
Barnaby, you still miss my point that Labour are attacking the Conservatives very strongly in Penistone & Stocksbridge, a constituency that they would previously have had people believe was safe.
I’m not going into whether this is a valid or wise campaigning technique. It’s the fact that they are having to resort to it here that is relevant.
Labour have seen the mood in the area and are looking worried.
I’m quite happy about this. All the time they continue to tell the people of Penistone & Stocksbridge that we are a danger to their position then they are being very helpful to us.
Interesting article in the Sheffield Star today pointing out, quite correctly, that all the seats in Barnsley and Sheffield are safe except for Sheffield Central and Penistone & Stocksbridge.
The article has quotes from Paul Scriven (Central Lib Dem candidate) and Spencer Pitfield in P&S. The two Labour candidates are also featured trying not to sound worried.
The article makes it clear that Central is a Lib Dem-Labour fight and Penistone & Stocksbridge is a Conservative-Labour one.
These two constituencies will be interesting ones to watch on election day. Both look quite tricky on paper for the challengers, but there are many factors which I’m sure will produce a larger than national swing. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see both of them go despite other seats further up the target lists not be won.
The article can’t on its own make such a thing clear at all. The figures say otherwise and I’m sure the Lib Dems wouldn’t agree with such an analysis. It’s a split opposition here & I shouldn’t think for one moment the Lib Dems would consider abandoning their silly horserace drawings & bar charts in this seat. I realise that this isn’t a straightforward safe Labour seat like most of its neighbours but I would be extremely surprised if Labour lose here.
It is very borderline.
The range is a Tory majority of about 50,
through to a situation where Labour just noses ahead on seats, with the Tory lead down to about 3%.
That would be a deadlock which could see Labour hanging on as a minority government, with agreement from other parties to support certain votes without formal co-alition.
I am hopeful of a Tory win by 20-30.
Talking about the Lib Dems, does anyone know whether Ian Cuthbertson is still the candidate?
He wasn’t mentioned in the leaflet sent out by the Lib Dem councillors before Christmas. In fact, I’m not sure whether I saw anything from him at all this year. Even when the Lib Dems were campaigning on specific issues in the area it was just the local councillors who seemed to be involved.
I heard a rumour recently that they would be selecting soon, but that may have just been speculation from people who didn’t realise they already had a candidate.
Conservative Campaign Headquarters in London are busy telecanvassing this seat. I was surprised as I heard “Pensitone” and immediately thought of the safe labour Barnsley west seat. CCHQ are obviously doing a bit of fact-finding because this is a new seat and feel there may be something in it.
I got the feeling that sentiment here is similar to Morley & Outwood, with lots of previously reliable Labour voters now saying they won’t vote.
It may be a close one, but you’d expect Labour to keep this unless there is a complete meltdown.
Cleethorpes Rock – I think it would be almost impossible for a Party that polled 14% in a seat in ‘97 to win this seat, but Penistone is the Tory bit of the seat. Does anyone know if the BNP vote here was high last June? I know it was 16% in neighbouring Barnsley.
Rock
It’s a good comparison.
Keith,
I’ve watched as you have talked absolute nonsense.
From information I have seen Labour won this seat in the Euros’ (certainly on the Sheffield side), in what was Labour’s worst election result, I believe since 1918.
The plain figures say a 10.5 % ish swing means the seat goes LibDem and to my understanding it will take a 11.5 -12% swing for this seat to go Tory. If this is such a banker why aren’t the Tories fighting Sheffield Hallam the only South Yorks seat to have been Tory in the last 50 years and one which requires only a 8.5% ish swing to go Tory, a swing which the Tories need to get if they want a decent majority.
In the recent East Ecclesfield by election my understanding is the Tories came 4th, behind the BNP and lost votes on their 2008 performance.
While it is true to say they have 6 councillors in Barnsley you seem to forget Sheffield forms 60% of this constituency, a city without a Tory councillor and a city where the Tories are not just disliked by many people but are still hated. Even after all these years many people have not forgiven them for what they did to Sheffield. Also let’s not forget this seat also contains Dodworth an old mining village which does not vote Tory in any election. In fact from memory that’s a ward they struggle to come last in!
On 2005 figures Labour, so I am led to believe won every box, par two, even in the Barnsley side of the new constituency
Statistics say that first time incumbents receive a boost of about 2- 2.5 %. This means the Labour candidate should receive this in the Sheffield half of the constituency (and the incumbent to my knowledge has not had an expense issue) Being female can add another 1-2%, especially so when facing all male opposites. Also being local can count for something especially when facing non locals, the Lib Dem lives in York, I believe and the Tory was born in Kent, spent most of his life in South Africa (probably has South African citizenship) and only came back to the UK a few years ago and lived in the South of England until recently, being a Councillor in Hertsmere until 2008. The Labour candidate to my knowledge has lived in the city for many years, is a former Sheffield City Councillor and has family who actually originate from the Penistone / west Barnsley area.
If the Tories are so confident of switching LibDem voters why don’t they think they can do that in Hallam as well, a constituency full of former Tory voters? It begs the question of why they think north Sheffield is different from the rest of city. Even if they achieve this they still requires Labour voters to stay at home on mass. Again this didn’t seam to be the case in the Euros when Labour certainly won the Sheffield side and probably the Barnsley side too. Myself, I don’t buy into this idea that there will be mass staying at home by Labour voters. When it comes to a general election peoples minds are focussed and they do understand the difference between the parties and the importance of voting and for South Yorkshire folk with long memories that means a lot.
This seat is very similar to old Penistone seat abolished in 1983, with the subtitle difference of more possible Labour voters added in Parson Cross area. That seat was won only once in 1931 by the Tories being held the rest of the time by Labour, hardly a marginal seat.
To be honest if the local elections are held on the same day as a general election it is entirely possible the boot could be on the other foot and it could be LibDem and Tory Councillors facing a problem. Recent history shows when turnout increases it is Labour who seem to benefit. This seems to be the case on both the Barnsley and Sheffield side. It is well known that much of the anti Labour vote in both Barnsley and Sheffield is infact an anti council vote. Something both the LibDems and Tory’s have used but which loses it potency in a GE. Hence Labour winning Sheffield Hillsborough in 2001 but losing in the local elections the previous year..
To conclude, yes there is no doubt this seat, because of the split opposition is slightly less solid than some other South Yorkshire seats, but this has to be considered in South Yorkshire terms, one of Labours major strongholds. Of course it is possible that Labour could lose, however, for me that seems very unlikely, even more so given the closing of the national polls. To put this seat into perspective, if Labour loses they will be down to around 150 MPs and we would certainly not be looking at the hung parliament polls are indicating.
This is a 10,000 notional majority seat and for me for it to change hands would mean we are looking at a 1997 election. Instead, if the polls are to be believed it is going to more like 1979 and therefore I believe beyond the Tories reach(even in a 1997 type election it would be difficult for the Tories here). Of course there are always seats which don’t perform to type, Tatton, Kidderminster, or Enfield Southgate come to mind, but on the whole there has to be some special circumstances for that to happen I don’t see anything special about this seat.
Penistone Born, you seem quite sure that I’m talking nonsense, but the majority of your post is unsubstantiated opinion. I won’t accuse you of talking nonsense, but will instead say that I don’t agree with you.
To quickly run through some of your points.
Yes, the offiicial figures from the Euros do show that Labour won in the Sheffield wards, beating us by about 1,000 votes. Barnsley haven’t been as helpful, but taking any reasonable assessment of the overall Barnsley votes gives us a lead over them of around double that. Richards figures show a very similar result.
For Labour to have beaten the Conservatives across the whole constituency then that can only have happened by the swing from Labour to the Conservatives having been significantly lower in the three P&S wards than elsewhere. Seeing as this was the only place with Conservative activity that is a very unlikely (although I will acknowledge, not impossible) scenario.
I presented my opinion of the Euro figures, and they are just an opinion. However, I will state that I personally am 99% sure that they are not inaccurate enough to be incorrect in the conclusion that we won overall. I am absolutely certain that we won overall in the Barnsley wards.
I certainly don’t forget that the Sheffield wards make up 60% of this constituency, but the message that the Conservatives are hated in this area is certainly not coming across on the doorstep. You can have your opinion there, but I’d guess that I have spoken to more people in the area on the subject than you have.
Dodworth is one of the Conservatives better performing wards in Barnsley and, in 2008 we were less than 200 votes behind Labour. The Barnsley Independent Group are way ahead here and as has been discussed before, where these votes go is important and unknown.
I don’t know about the 2005 individual boxes, but I’d be surprised if anyone accurately observed every single box (I assume you mean in the old Barnsley West & Penistone constituency). That is the only way that such a claim could be made.
Angela Smith has had expenses issues. She featured in both the national and local press.
Lib Dems won’t switch in Hallam because there is a Lib Dem MP there (the leader at that). The reasons why a seat with a Labour MP is different to that with a Lib Dem are so blindingly obvious that I’m sure you are really aware.
Parsons Cross, with its approx 2,000 voters won’t have a massive impact on the result. You are probably correct with your comments on the old constituency, but we are fighting an election on 2010, not in the 70’s. The demographic change has been huge in that time. Whether it has been enough to make this a winnable seat for the Conservatives is a matter of opinion, but I wouldn’t place too much on the long South Yorkshire memories if I were you.
Of course, if the overall election result is very close then that would make seats like this extremely difficult for the Conservatives to win. I’ve never claimed otherwise. However, having considered everything you have said, I’ll stick with my view that this seat has enough “special circumstances” to mean that the swing to the Conservatives from Labour will be significantly higher than UNS would suggest and, given a reasonably decent Conservative majority, there is a strong chance that it will fall.
I know this seat quite well and whilst it’s a big ask for the Conservatives to win, I wouldn’t write it off. The big unknown and the thing that could decide it is what happens to the Liberal Democrat vote in Sheffield.
As has been said, 60% of this constituency is in Sheffield where, to be frank, the Tories are just seen as irrelevant. The East Ecclesfield by-election also showed that even when the Tories put in effort it isn’t rewarded. Although the Tories are clearly ramping up their campaign here, the Lib Dems won’t roll over and die as they have to hold their three council seats and so it might be a lot tougher to squeeze them than the Tories would hope. Even if people split their votes and vote Lib Dem locally and Con nationally, this resilience in the Lib Dem vote could cost the Tories this seat.
I imagine if the Lib Dems weren’t piling in to Sheffield Central, they might have fancied their chances here. In those circumstances they would have probably picked a more credible candidate. Ian Cuthbertson is still the candidate, but rarely appears in Lib Dem leaflets, perhaps because they are only bothered about the council elections. A bit of a wasted opportunity by the Lib Dems really.
Very sensible comments Informer. I’d generally agree with most of it.
The East Ecclesfield by-election may or may not be an indicator. I was disappointed that there was little movement, but in hindsight there is no particular reason why us talking to people about Spencer Pitfield would suddenly make people vote for our local candidate, especially when control of the City Hall is so precarious. Whether Lib Dem voters do come across to us will only be known after the election, but it is certainly possible. The fact that past results clearly show that many local Lib Dem voters don’t do so in national elections is a good indication though.
I’m not sure why the Lib Dems didn’t challenge for this seat, and if they had then it would probably have just been a positioning exercise for second place. The fact they haven’t is bad news for Angela Smith.
Cleethorpes Rock, that’s interesting to hear if true. Can you tell us how you know?