Penistone and Stocksbridge
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 19074 (47%)
Liberal Democrat: 10225 (25.2%)
Conservative: 9331 (23%)
Other: 1960 (4.8%)
Majority: 8849 (21.8%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 6890 (15%)
Labour: 23477 (51.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 12234 (26.7%)
BNP: 2010 (4.4%)
UKIP: 1273 (2.8%)
Majority: 11243 (24.5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 7801 (18.3%)
Labour: 24170 (56.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 9601 (22.6%)
UKIP: 964 (2.3%)
Majority: 14569 (34.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 7707 (14.5%)
Labour: 30150 (56.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 13699 (25.8%)
Referendum: 1468 (2.8%)
Majority: 16451 (31%)
Boundary changes:
Profile: By the standards of South Yorkshire, one of Labour`s most reliable bedrocks in England, this is almost marginal. Labour have below 50% of the vote, no councillors in the seat and it is only an almost even divide of opposition support between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats that prevents this appearing much closer.
The seat covers the north-western suburbs of Sheffield and the steel town of Stocksbridge – set north-west of Sheffield on the edge of the moors. The northern part of the seat drawn from the Borough of Barnsley covers the rural villages in the foothills of the pennines around the market town of Penistone and, to the east, the former mining village of Dodworth. Most of the seat is made up of traditional industrial areas, loyal to Labour, though with the decline of coal and steel and the old allegiences that went with it, there is more new build housing and commuters into Sheffield and Barnsley.
In the southern part of the seat, drawn from the dismembered Sheffield Hillsborough, the Liberal Democrats are the main challengers to Labour and perform strongly at the local level. In the northern part of the seat, transferred from Barnsley West and Penistone, Penistone itself has tended to be a good area for the Conservatives – at least, by the low standards of Tories in South Yorkshire. The future of this seat will largely depend on whether one of the parties can successfully position themselves as the alternative to Labour in this seat.
Outgoing MP: Angela Smith(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Spencer Pitfield (Conservative) born in Kent. Educated in South Africa and received a doctorate in performance practice from Sheffield University. Music teacher. Hertsmere borough councillor 2001-2008. Contested Sheffield Hallam in 2005.Angela Smith(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Ian Cuthbertson (Liberal Democrat) born West Yorkshire. Educated at Bradford Grammar School and Bradford University. York councillor 2003-2007. Contested Dewsbury 2001, Selby 2005.
Grant French (UKIP)Paul McEnhill (English Democrat)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 84584
Male: 48.7%
Female: 51.3%
Under 18: 20.8%
Over 60: 22.3%
Born outside UK: 2.1%
White: 98.4%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 0.7%
Mixed: 0.5%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 80.2%
Full time students: 2.1%
Graduates 16-74: 16.8%
No Qualifications 16-74: 31.3%
Owner-Occupied: 75.6%
Social Housing: 18.5% (Council: 17.5%, Housing Ass.: 1.1%)
Privately Rented: 3.8%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 5%
Joe James B,
One interesting thing about this constituency is that no party has a base across the whole area. We are historically weak in the Sheffield wards, although Stocksbridge is stronger than the other two.
The Lib Dems are strong locally in Sheffield, but non existent in Barnsley. In Sheffield they are locally focussed and have been doing no campaigning on a national level here.
Labour are moderately strong in Sheffield, although they came 4th in Stocksbridge in the 2008 locals. The three Barnsley wards are just about their weakest in the Borough, and they have very little organisation on that side.
A lot has been made of the fact that we are not strong in part of the constituency, but that applies to all three main parties. A significant fact is that the nature of the Sheffield wards means that they are easier to start campaigning in, rather than the rural Penistone Wards which are comparatively harder to get around.
I don’t want to spoil all your fun but I think its time for some facts
1. In the 2005 general election Labour polled 45% in Stocksbridge, 60% in West Ecclesfield and 58% in East Ecclesfield. The Lib Dems know this as they did the same sampling. The Tories got 18%, 11% and 13% respectively. The Lib Dems averaged about 25% across those wards. Labour won every box.
2. According to CCC and the Lib Dems on the Barnsley side Labour in 2005 won every box par two. These were won by around 5 points by the Tories from Labour. It is these calculations that were used by all parties when they were setting there safe seats and marginal’s after boundary change. The calculations by electoral calculus underestimate the Labour vote in 2005 in the Barnsley side (also they do the same on the Sheffield side, for which real figures are held by two of the parties) according the stats used by the party.
3. The 2005 General election is the one you have to compare with as local election European elections etc are only a guide (as anyone who studies voting behaviour). This is why Anthony Wells and others have set notional majorities for the 2005 election because to be honest it does matter a jot if the Lib Dems won a local by election or whether Labour won in the Euros etc. The only thing that really counts is how people voted in the real general election not some other election which is nearly always a referendum on the government of the day. As I set before they can only be a guide and a bit of fun for the pollsters. It is why swings are worked out from one GE to another, not from some by election or some euro election. You have to compare like with like.
4. The calculation by Labour, the Lib Dems and the Tories nationally is that this seat is a safe Labour seat with a notional majority of around 10,000, not my figures but ones used by all three parties nationally. That not to say it’s not impossible for Labour to lose the seat. Like many other safe seats around the country it is a 95% er, even according to electoral calculus it has over a 70% chance of remaining Labour. In the same bracket as Don Valley, Doncaster Central etc.
5. If anyone has strength over the whole of the constituency it is Labour, no matter how much the local Tories dream otherwise according to the data above and used by all three parties nationally in setting their priorities.
6. To be successful in any constituency a party has to have a pool of voters to call on. If you compare the size of the relative pools available to each party (from the demographic information used by all there parties you will see the Tories pool is just not big enough. Before they can look at winning this seat they need to grow that pool. And there is scant evidence both nationally and locally that they are doing that. If anything work on the ground by the parties (all of them) suggest the opposite.
7. Looking at the demographics of the seat, again this data is available to all the parties the party most likely party challenge this seat in long term are the LibDems. There is and as always been a Liberal vote (a proper Liberal vote) in the bottom half Penistoen East. This vote goes back to the days of the old Wortley Council and David Chadwick etc and it is still there. It is this party that challenges in the 60% which is Sheffield, including Stocksbridge. Lets’ be honest Sheffield has not voted Tory at all in the last 14 years and if they believe they can win Sheffield Hallam which is 157 on their list they aren’t going to pick up votes in north Sheffield. To put it a national perspective they need Sheffield Hallam if they want a decent majority and at the moment they don’t seem capable of that.
8. If you put these together with other factors, such as first time incumbency worth around 2 to 2.5 % on the Sheffield side. The labour candidate being women, worth around 1.5 %; the fact that the other candidates are not local. One is from Kent and Hertsmere, via South Africa where he spent much of his early life and the other is from York. The fact the Tories seem to have an extremely poor candidate who does not understand and has not got to grips with the area and a Lib Dem who is only noticeable by his absence it points to a Labour victory.
9. Let’s also remember at the present moment the national polls do not suggest that Tories are going to reduce Labour to around the 160-170 MPs that would be left if this seat was to go. I do not see Labour losing in places like North East Derbyshire, Blackburn, and Bassetlaw etc. Before P&S goes these would have to be lost. Let’s be honest as things stand now the Tories are struggling to win Ipswich which they need if they are just to be the largest party.
Yes, that is a good point – thanks Keith.
An outside chance perhaps if the Tories go further ahead, and the LD vote is squeezed given the national circumstances.
There’s some references to the Sheffield Euro results being available by ward.
Does anyone have details?
Also, it seems to me that some people are desperate to ‘prove’ that the Conservatives cannot win here.
Shadsy doesn’t agree.
Richard,
Shadsy’s odds are interesting, as the Conservative odds seem to be similar to seats where the Labour majority is about 3,000 less. I think that’s probably a slight understatement, but it shows that they expect us to perform better here than UNS would suggest.
You’re certainly right about people being desperate to prove we can’t win, although the last post reads very similarly to previous ones. Just changing the name is not going to fool anyone.
Keith
I’m not the same person and you have not answered the points I have raised. The information I have is from the national Tories, Labour and Lib Dems and freely available data.
So now your saying a 10,000 majority is really a 3000 majority, come on get real
Tell you what I’ll share the data I have if you share the data which makes you believe this is a 3000 majority seat.
“So now your saying a 10,000 majority is really a 3000 majority, come on get real”
Nope, I’m not saying anything like that.
If you want reading lessons I’m sure you can get them somewhere.
Don’t worry Keith, as usual, the Labour apologists have to set up a straw man to knock down in order to claim a victory.
Since I haven’t read you claiming that the seat is going to go Tory, I don’t know why they are so insistant that it will be held by Labour. Perhaps its like Houghton and Washington where they are seriously crowing that the seats will be won by Labour.
If they weren’t, that would be a real shock of course. It does seem to suggest Labour’s ambitions are not high for the electon if they are spending so much time trying to convince us that they can win seats like these!
William Hill have opened their book on this seat and installed Labour as 4/9 favourites, with the Tories at 9/4 and the Lib-Dems 9/1. So, you pays your money and makes your choice!
The Tories campaign in Penistone has been part financed by Lord Ashcroft. I wonder if the Tory candidate will now cease to use Ashcroft as main source campaign funding. I guess thats perhaps excepting too much, without his [Ashcroft's] ‘unlimited funds’ I very much doubt this Tory campaign would have got off the ground in the first place!!
Good point. There was a letter in the local paper some time ago that said the Tory candidate had a donation from South Africa refused (he grew up in apartheit South Africa and went to an Afrikaaner university). The fact that he tried to accept the donation in the first place shows that he’s not too fussy about where his money comes from.
Wow, tasteful smearing Ian. McBride would be proud.