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Oxford East

2010 Results:
Conservative: 9727 (18.83%)
Labour: 21938 (42.47%)
Liberal Democrat: 17357 (33.6%)
UKIP: 1202 (2.33%)
Green: 1238 (2.4%)
Others: 189 (0.37%)
Majority: 4581 (8.87%)

Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 16271 (36%)
Labour: 16066 (35.6%)
Conservative: 7632 (16.9%)
Other: 5197 (11.5%)
Majority: 205 (0.5%)

Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 6992 (16.7%)
Labour: 15405 (36.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 14442 (34.6%)
Green: 1813 (4.3%)
UKIP: 715 (1.7%)
Other: 2423 (5.8%)
Majority: 963 (2.3%)

2001 Result
Conservative: 7446 (18.7%)
Labour: 19681 (49.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 9337 (23.4%)
UKIP: 570 (1.4%)
Green: 1501 (3.8%)
Other: 1313 (3.3%)
Majority: 10344 (26%)

1997 Result
Conservative: 10540 (22%)
Labour: 27205 (56.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 7038 (14.7%)
Referendum: 1391 (2.9%)
Other: 1703 (3.6%)
Majority: 16665 (34.8%)

Boundary changes: Gains most of Carfax and Holywell wards and a small part of St Marys, covering the centre of Oxford and the University colleges.

Profile: Unlike Oxford West, which is largely rural and now contains relatively little of Oxford, this is an urban seat and contains the vast majority of Oxford itself.

The seat covers the centre of Oxford, and now includes the majority of the Oxford Colleges – the two city centre wards Holywell and Carfax are overwhelmingly made up of students. To the east the suburb of Headington also contains Oxford Brookes University and the teaching hospitals. Just under a quarter of residents are students and as might be expected it is a strong area for the Liberal Democrats and Green party.

It would be wrong however to characterise this seat as being made up of academic quadrangles, ivory towers and Guardian reading students – most people here are not students. Away from the city centre there a mixed residential suburbs including the industrial Cowley, home to BMW`s Mini production, and the large council estate of Blackbird Leys, with an unfortunate reputation for unemployment, crime and joyriding. A minor party, the Independent Working Class Association, has some strength on the council estates here and returns several councillors, however they have a negligible effect at the last election.

Note that Rallings & Thrasher`s notional figures have Oxford East as a Labour seat, so the mainstream media will treat this as a Labour held seat at the next election.

portraitCurrent MP: Andrew Smith(Labour) born 1952, Reading. Formerly worked for the Co-op. Former Oxford councillor. First elected as MP for Oxford East in 1987. Minister for Employment 1997-1999, Chief Secretary of the Treasury 1999-2002 and Secretary of State for Work and Pensions 2002-2004, when he left the frontbench (more information at They work for you)

2010 election candidates:
portraitEd Argar (Conservative) born 1977, Ashford, Kent. Educated Harvey GS, Folkestone, and Oriel College, Oxford. Currently management consultant, previously Political Adviser to Michael Ancram. Westminster City Councillor since 2006.
portraitAndrew Smith(Labour) born 1952, Reading. Formerly worked for the Co-op. Former Oxford councillor. First elected as MP for Oxford East in 1987. Minister for Employment 1997-1999, Chief Secretary of the Treasury 1999-2002 and Secretary of State for Work and Pensions 2002-2004, when he left the frontbench (more information at They work for you)
portraitSteve Goddard (Liberal Democrat) born 1969, Taunton. Educated at Oxford University. University lecturer in Oxford. Oxford City Councillor from 1996-2002. Contested Oxford East in 2001 and 2005. Main policy interests are the environment, Europe and foreign affairs, civil liberties and constitutional reform.
portraitSushila Dhall (Green) Counsellor. Oxford councillor. Former Oxfordshire councillor.
portraitJulia Gasper (UKIP) Born India 1954. Educated at Woodford County High School and Reading University. Lecturer and writer.
portraitDavid O`Sullivan (Socialist Equality) Born London. Works on the London Underground.
portraitRoger Crawford (Equal Parenting Alliance)

2001 Census Demographics

Total 2001 Population: 105623
Male: 49.3%
Female: 50.7%
Under 18: 18.3%
Over 60: 16.4%
Born outside UK: 17.6%
White: 86.6%
Black: 2.9%
Asian: 5.3%
Mixed: 2.4%
Other: 2.8%
Christian: 61.4%
Hindu: 0.8%
Jewish: 0.6%
Muslim: 4.3%
Full time students: 23%
Graduates 16-74: 31.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 21.1%
Owner-Occupied: 55.1%
Social Housing: 24% (Council: 18%, Housing Ass.: 6%)
Privately Rented: 15.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.1%

NB - The constituency guide is now archived and is no longer being updated. The new guide is at http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide