Oxford East
2010 Results:
Conservative: 9727 (18.83%)
Labour: 21938 (42.47%)
Liberal Democrat: 17357 (33.6%)
UKIP: 1202 (2.33%)
Green: 1238 (2.4%)
Others: 189 (0.37%)
Majority: 4581 (8.87%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 16271 (36%)
Labour: 16066 (35.6%)
Conservative: 7632 (16.9%)
Other: 5197 (11.5%)
Majority: 205 (0.5%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 6992 (16.7%)
Labour: 15405 (36.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 14442 (34.6%)
Green: 1813 (4.3%)
UKIP: 715 (1.7%)
Other: 2423 (5.8%)
Majority: 963 (2.3%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 7446 (18.7%)
Labour: 19681 (49.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 9337 (23.4%)
UKIP: 570 (1.4%)
Green: 1501 (3.8%)
Other: 1313 (3.3%)
Majority: 10344 (26%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 10540 (22%)
Labour: 27205 (56.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 7038 (14.7%)
Referendum: 1391 (2.9%)
Other: 1703 (3.6%)
Majority: 16665 (34.8%)
Boundary changes: Gains most of Carfax and Holywell wards and a small part of St Marys, covering the centre of Oxford and the University colleges.
Profile: Unlike Oxford West, which is largely rural and now contains relatively little of Oxford, this is an urban seat and contains the vast majority of Oxford itself.
The seat covers the centre of Oxford, and now includes the majority of the Oxford Colleges – the two city centre wards Holywell and Carfax are overwhelmingly made up of students. To the east the suburb of Headington also contains Oxford Brookes University and the teaching hospitals. Just under a quarter of residents are students and as might be expected it is a strong area for the Liberal Democrats and Green party.
It would be wrong however to characterise this seat as being made up of academic quadrangles, ivory towers and Guardian reading students – most people here are not students. Away from the city centre there a mixed residential suburbs including the industrial Cowley, home to BMW`s Mini production, and the large council estate of Blackbird Leys, with an unfortunate reputation for unemployment, crime and joyriding. A minor party, the Independent Working Class Association, has some strength on the council estates here and returns several councillors, however they have a negligible effect at the last election.
Note that Rallings & Thrasher`s notional figures have Oxford East as a Labour seat, so the mainstream media will treat this as a Labour held seat at the next election.
Current MP: Andrew Smith(Labour) born 1952, Reading. Formerly worked for the Co-op. Former Oxford councillor. First elected as MP for Oxford East in 1987. Minister for Employment 1997-1999, Chief Secretary of the Treasury 1999-2002 and Secretary of State for Work and Pensions 2002-2004, when he left the frontbench (more information at They work for you)
Ed Argar (Conservative) born 1977, Ashford, Kent. Educated Harvey GS, Folkestone, and Oriel College, Oxford. Currently management consultant, previously Political Adviser to Michael Ancram. Westminster City Councillor since 2006. Andrew Smith(Labour) born 1952, Reading. Formerly worked for the Co-op. Former Oxford councillor. First elected as MP for Oxford East in 1987. Minister for Employment 1997-1999, Chief Secretary of the Treasury 1999-2002 and Secretary of State for Work and Pensions 2002-2004, when he left the frontbench (more information at They work for you)
Steve Goddard (Liberal Democrat) born 1969, Taunton. Educated at Oxford University. University lecturer in Oxford. Oxford City Councillor from 1996-2002. Contested Oxford East in 2001 and 2005. Main policy interests are the environment, Europe and foreign affairs, civil liberties and constitutional reform.
Sushila Dhall (Green) Counsellor. Oxford councillor. Former Oxfordshire councillor.
Julia Gasper (UKIP) Born India 1954. Educated at Woodford County High School and Reading University. Lecturer and writer.
David O`Sullivan (Socialist Equality) Born London. Works on the London Underground.
Roger Crawford (Equal Parenting Alliance)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 105623
Male: 49.3%
Female: 50.7%
Under 18: 18.3%
Over 60: 16.4%
Born outside UK: 17.6%
White: 86.6%
Black: 2.9%
Asian: 5.3%
Mixed: 2.4%
Other: 2.8%
Christian: 61.4%
Hindu: 0.8%
Jewish: 0.6%
Muslim: 4.3%
Full time students: 23%
Graduates 16-74: 31.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 21.1%
Owner-Occupied: 55.1%
Social Housing: 24% (Council: 18%, Housing Ass.: 6%)
Privately Rented: 15.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.1%
Labour’s campaign here was nothing short of monstrous. It is a key example what hard-work and excellent grass-roots organisation can do to a party’s vote. They have successfully bucked the national trend three years in a row now in Oxford (winning seats in the 2008 locals, 2009 countys and then the 2010 general & locals). I think we can safely predict Labour holding this seat now for the foreseeable future as well as a majority on the council.
I can’t tell whether you’re praising the Labour campaign or decrying it.
I think it’s praise, “monstrous” in its good sense (perhaps he should have said “monster”).
A very good win for Labour here,
but almost entirely predictable I think.
Well in retrospect yes, but Cleggneurosis did cause many people to think otherwise.
‘A very good win for Labour here,
but almost entirely predictable I think.’
not knowing the candidates that well I’d say this looked to me like a pretty certain Lib Dem gain – or hold depending on whose figures you’re going by
From what I heard Labour ran an old-fashioned canvass-based campaign that consisted of knocking on peoples doors – and this part of Oxford certainly does have plenty of areas that would be pre-disposed to vote Labour
Total rubbish,
the LDs clearly peaked in 2005 here, and got nowhere since.
I don’t know why people kept predicting LD gain here and in Islington South & Finsbury – the evidence was that that was 2005.
I’d been to a presentation by the Islington S Labour Party at the Manchester conference at which Emily Thornberry spoke, after which I knew that the local trends were turning against the LDs too sharply for Labour to lose the seat, even given how marginal it was on paper. Local elections during the Parliament made Oxford E look like a very likely Labour gain, but a lot depended on how much the LDs were able to corral the anti-Labour vote into their camp. They could still have won, had it not been for the strength of the Labour candidate.
I know a Tory member in this seat who voted Labour he disliked the Lib Dems and their campaign so much.
His words, not mine.
“When Oxford was split in 1983 it contained 9 of 15 Oxford wards and in addition two wards from South Oxfordshire which were subsequently annexed to Oxford city.”
In fact it was a bit more complicated than this. in 1983 Oxford East took in 3 wards from SODC: Littlemore, Old Marston and Risinghurst. These were 3 seperate wards, and Risinghurst included the Horspath area.
When extraneous territory was added to Oxford City in 1990 (effective Local elections 91), Littlemore was added in its entirety. However, Old Marston was “combined” with a (completely and utterly) detached bit of the Risinghurst ward to form the bizarre two-part “Old Marston & Risinghurst”.
BUT the remainder of the old Risinghusrt ward (i.e. Horspath) stayed in SODC, forming the brand-new Horspath ward. So, by 1997, Oxford East therefore included wards in the eastern half of the City AND Horspath from SODC (as it had been in Risinghurst ward).
Therefore, in 1997, not only was South added to East, but the Horspath Ward was moved out and into Henley. This was the only change made to Henley at that time, and I was flummoxed for many years as to what the “change” made to Henley was. It was this.
I think Old Marston & Risinghurst was the last ward in Oxford to elect a Conservative councillor.
“I don’t know why people kept predicting LD gain here and in Islington South & Finsbury – the evidence was that that was 2005.”
Because some people thought that the LibDem advances of 2005 were ‘baked in’ and then added the national swing on top.
But still this constituency acted differently to Cambridge and Islington S acted differently to Brent C and Hornsey.
I suspect if the LibDems had won here in 2005 they would have won again this year – LibDem incumbancy again.
The LibDems must be kicking themselves that they came close in many Labour seats this time but didn’t win. In many of these they are likely to fade now as they have done in this constituency.
Looking back the thing I got most wrong about the election is that I expected massive tactical voting by natural Conservatives for the LibDems in constituencies like this one, Newcaste N, Sheffield C etc.
I dare say that the widespread assumption that hung parliament = Lab/LibDem coalition stopped this. Ironic isn’t it!
RR – that had flumoxed me for a while and in fact you will see one of my earliest posts on this site was asking about this very Horspath issue (back in february 2007)
Close, Barnaby, but not quite right. The last ward in Oxford city council elections to return a Conservative councillor was Marston ward in 2000. That Marston ward was known as ‘New Marston’ in Oxfordshire CC elections, and is quite different from the current Marston ward. OM&R elected a Conservative councillor in 1990 when it became part of Oxford city; she rejoiced in the splendid name of Nonny Tiffany.
Aiden is quite right. (New) Marston was a bizarre win in 2000 (Barbara Burgess), the last time it was Conservative was in the early 1980s (though some is nice it includes the Northway Council Estate).
Of the wards that Oxford absobed in 1990/1, Littlemore was solid Labour (included half of Rose Hill and all of Minchery Farm) and always sent SODC a guaranteed 3 Labour Councillors (including Group leader in the 80s Bill Buckingham).
(Old) Marston (the SODC ward was also called Marston!!) voted 2 Ind in 1983 and 1 Con and 1 Ind in 1987.
Risinghurst (including Horspath) was 1 Con and 1 Ind in both 1983 and 1987.
Once they were aborbed, Littlemore stuck with Labour in Oxford City elections from 1991 onwards. The ridiculous “Old Marston and Risinghurst” was 2 Lab 1 Con (Mrs. Tiffany!) in 1991, but she lost in 1994, and ward went all Labour.
The new Horspath ward on SODC was Ind in 1991 (Norman Bowley who had represented Risinghurst), but then went LD in 1995.
What were the wards of the old Oxford constituency from 1885 to 1997?
Don’t forget that Oxford was split in two in 1983.
there used to be an Oxford Central ward I think, nowadays 2 wards cover the city centre.
Who would have won the old Oxford seat (1979) in 2010?
I think narrowly LD, unfortunately.
LD 25,000
Lab 24,000
C 17,000
very rough
In terms of the current wards, the Oxford seat of 1885-1950 would have consisted of a much smaller area than the current local authority. Marston, Headington and Cowley were in the Woodstock or Henley seats and to the west Wolvercote was also outside. From this seat only the current wards of St Clements, St Marys and Iffley Fields east of the Cherwell were included with Carfax, Holywell and Hinksey Park to the west. In the OxWab seat the wards of Jericho & Osney, North, St Margarets and Summertown were included.
In 1950 most of the other areas (which had expanded substantially in the inter-war years) were brought into Oxford – Cowley, Headington and Iffley.
Littlemore and Old Marston were added to Oxford East in 1983 when they were still part of South Oxfordshire district
“Who would have won the old Oxford seat (1979) in 2010?”
Isn’t this kind of smilar to Norwich – here LDs would have won a majority across the city but failed to take either seat. In Norwich Labour would have had a majority, but failed to take either seat.
good point. Also Labour in Brighton & Hove this year outpolled both the Tories & Greens within the city boundaries but couldn’t win any of the 3 seats contained wholly or partly therein (Kemptown includes a large element in Lewes District which is quite heavily Conservative).
I like electoral quirks like these.
For the sake of balance I think the same thing happened the Conservatives in Portsmouth in 2005.
Labour managed to win half of the seats in East Sussex in 2005 despite coming third in share of the vote across the county and winning less than a quarter of the vote. So what happened to them in Brighton & Hove this year could be viewed as a balancing out of that.
‘Don’t forget that Oxford was split in two in 1983′
I KNEW that
‘there used to be an Oxford Central ward I think, nowadays 2 wards cover the city centre’
Namely Carfax and Holywell, both of which were in West and Abingdon from 1983 to 2010
Your question implied that you didn’t know although I suspected that you did in fact know it.
What were the wards of this seat from 1983 to 1997?
Oh not this again.
I’m going to second Barnaby
They were:
Oxford City wards: Marston, Headington, Quarry, Wood Farm, St. Clements, East, Temple Cowley, Iffley, Blackbird Leys.
South Oxfordshire DC Wards: Old Marston, Risinghurst and Littlemore (NOTE these areas were transferred to Oxford City Council in 1991 except the Hosrpath area of Risinghurst ward which was given its own ward on SODC…but it remained in Oxford East till 1997).
In 1997 South ward came in from OXWAB, and the Hospath ward (formerly part of Risinghurst) left for Henley. Both changes helped Labour.
Thanks to RR for his answer – as I have said on another thread, I am annoyed that the 1983 boundary changes act is not online as far as I can see, although I see it has been used as a reference in several Wikipedia constituency articles, therefore I have NOT had to ask about those particular seats on here!! (or if I have it was before I discovered the wards were listed on Wikipedia…)
An awful lot of results over the years have depended upon whether small cities/large towns have had one seat for the centre, with the suburbs spilling over into nearby country seats, or whether they have had two seats with a boundary cutting across the city/town centre and voter numbers brought up where necessary by including suburbs. Apart from Oxford and Norwich, one could think of Preston, York, Colchester (contrasted with Chelmsford) and quite a few others. In some years, e.g. 1964, 1974, the whole result of the General Election could been significantly altered by a few boundary changes in such seats.
In my view these problems become even worse with AV in single member seats. The best practical solution is STV in consistently sized multi-member seats (with no top-up lists), but even then the number of members per seat and the boundaries can have important effects on the outcome.
>>I can’t tell whether you’re praising the Labour campaign or decrying it.<<
I was absolutely praising it for reconnecting with people on a grassroots level. By 'monstrous' I was more in awe of the numbers of activists mobilised, the amount of work and the level of organisation.
I was praising both the style and scale of their campaigning.
This seat becomes the new Oxford seat with the only change being Carfax moving into Abingdon and Oxford North. That helps boost the LDs in the latter seat while also helping Labour in this unified Oxford seat. I imagine the majority will increase considerably at the next election.
Why do you call it a unified Oxford seat when less of Oxford is contained within it than previously?
Yes, that probably was unwise of me. But that begs the question why it’s called Oxford when the old name would still be accurate?
As always the Boundary Commission leaves us with more questions than there are possible answers
I think that this seat will end up being called Oxford South.
Odd that Abingdon includes the North of the City when it is SW of the city?