Oxford East
2010 Results:
Conservative: 9727 (18.83%)
Labour: 21938 (42.47%)
Liberal Democrat: 17357 (33.6%)
UKIP: 1202 (2.33%)
Green: 1238 (2.4%)
Others: 189 (0.37%)
Majority: 4581 (8.87%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 16271 (36%)
Labour: 16066 (35.6%)
Conservative: 7632 (16.9%)
Other: 5197 (11.5%)
Majority: 205 (0.5%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 6992 (16.7%)
Labour: 15405 (36.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 14442 (34.6%)
Green: 1813 (4.3%)
UKIP: 715 (1.7%)
Other: 2423 (5.8%)
Majority: 963 (2.3%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 7446 (18.7%)
Labour: 19681 (49.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 9337 (23.4%)
UKIP: 570 (1.4%)
Green: 1501 (3.8%)
Other: 1313 (3.3%)
Majority: 10344 (26%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 10540 (22%)
Labour: 27205 (56.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 7038 (14.7%)
Referendum: 1391 (2.9%)
Other: 1703 (3.6%)
Majority: 16665 (34.8%)
Boundary changes: Gains most of Carfax and Holywell wards and a small part of St Marys, covering the centre of Oxford and the University colleges.
Profile: Unlike Oxford West, which is largely rural and now contains relatively little of Oxford, this is an urban seat and contains the vast majority of Oxford itself.
The seat covers the centre of Oxford, and now includes the majority of the Oxford Colleges – the two city centre wards Holywell and Carfax are overwhelmingly made up of students. To the east the suburb of Headington also contains Oxford Brookes University and the teaching hospitals. Just under a quarter of residents are students and as might be expected it is a strong area for the Liberal Democrats and Green party.
It would be wrong however to characterise this seat as being made up of academic quadrangles, ivory towers and Guardian reading students – most people here are not students. Away from the city centre there a mixed residential suburbs including the industrial Cowley, home to BMW`s Mini production, and the large council estate of Blackbird Leys, with an unfortunate reputation for unemployment, crime and joyriding. A minor party, the Independent Working Class Association, has some strength on the council estates here and returns several councillors, however they have a negligible effect at the last election.
Note that Rallings & Thrasher`s notional figures have Oxford East as a Labour seat, so the mainstream media will treat this as a Labour held seat at the next election.
Current MP: Andrew Smith(Labour) born 1952, Reading. Formerly worked for the Co-op. Former Oxford councillor. First elected as MP for Oxford East in 1987. Minister for Employment 1997-1999, Chief Secretary of the Treasury 1999-2002 and Secretary of State for Work and Pensions 2002-2004, when he left the frontbench (more information at They work for you)
Ed Argar (Conservative) born 1977, Ashford, Kent. Educated Harvey GS, Folkestone, and Oriel College, Oxford. Currently management consultant, previously Political Adviser to Michael Ancram. Westminster City Councillor since 2006. Andrew Smith(Labour) born 1952, Reading. Formerly worked for the Co-op. Former Oxford councillor. First elected as MP for Oxford East in 1987. Minister for Employment 1997-1999, Chief Secretary of the Treasury 1999-2002 and Secretary of State for Work and Pensions 2002-2004, when he left the frontbench (more information at They work for you)
Steve Goddard (Liberal Democrat) born 1969, Taunton. Educated at Oxford University. University lecturer in Oxford. Oxford City Councillor from 1996-2002. Contested Oxford East in 2001 and 2005. Main policy interests are the environment, Europe and foreign affairs, civil liberties and constitutional reform.
Sushila Dhall (Green) Counsellor. Oxford councillor. Former Oxfordshire councillor.
Julia Gasper (UKIP) Born India 1954. Educated at Woodford County High School and Reading University. Lecturer and writer.
David O`Sullivan (Socialist Equality) Born London. Works on the London Underground.
Roger Crawford (Equal Parenting Alliance)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 105623
Male: 49.3%
Female: 50.7%
Under 18: 18.3%
Over 60: 16.4%
Born outside UK: 17.6%
White: 86.6%
Black: 2.9%
Asian: 5.3%
Mixed: 2.4%
Other: 2.8%
Christian: 61.4%
Hindu: 0.8%
Jewish: 0.6%
Muslim: 4.3%
Full time students: 23%
Graduates 16-74: 31.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 21.1%
Owner-Occupied: 55.1%
Social Housing: 24% (Council: 18%, Housing Ass.: 6%)
Privately Rented: 15.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.1%
Both Labour and the Lib Dems ran very strong campaigns, but Smith was helped by the way he sold himself as a maverick opposed to the more illiberal tendencies of Labour and as a good solid local MP, and with his warning (which was, as it turns out, correct) that a vote for the Lib Dems was a vote for a Conservative government. The higher turnout helped as well.
NickE,
I don’t think I was that far out: I was predicting a fall in the LD share in this and many other student-heavy constituencies (although admittedly I also predicted a fall in the Labour share here).
Interesting thoughts, Foregone Conclusion. In Luton North, Kelvin Hopkins also increased his vote. Perhaps there is a message there for Tory and LD backbenchers in this parliament?
The campaign literature that Goddard sent to the students was just a bit insulting to our intelligence frankly. Standard kind of tabloidy garbage the liberals send out. Im a conserative and will always vote so, but if I was an undecided lefty it would have shifted me towards Andrew Smith
Yes Joe – where I live the LD literature is at a very low niveau. We are quite an intelligent electorate in Richmond Park & I think some of us are put off by both the quantity AND poor quality of their simplistic, even childish leaflets.
The Tories perform rather poorly in this seat as opposed to the rest of Oxfordshire which is surrounded in blue. I know that this seat is more urban and has students, but I would have thought the appeal of David Cameron would go down well here – considering that he is an Oxfordshire MP.
‘The changes to OE mean that pundits will no longer be able to say: “This is not the Oxford of Dreaming Spires blah blah”, as clearly it now IS’
Indeed this constituency now contains more wards of Oxford City Council than West, prior to 2010 it was the other way round
You sure about that Harry?
I believe that is the general assumption, but I could of course be wrong… I know West contained the city centre and the majority of the Colleges from 1983 to 2010, as I have said elsewhere.
East has always included the majority of Oxford wards. When Oxford was split in 1983 it contained 9 of 15 Oxford wards and in addition two wards from South Oxfordshire which were subsequently annexed to Oxford city. In 1997 one other ward was moved from West to East so the ratio was 12 to 5. Subsequent re-warding made this 17 – 7 and the recent boundary changes made it 19 – 5
thanks Pete. I think it was Oxford South ward which was moved in 1997. I canvassed there in the 1981 county council elections when staying with a friend in the city with success (Labour gained it, at that time, from the Tories). I remember being impressed that the Oxford Mail correctly predicted the result that year in every single county council electoral division.
How long have you been in the Labour Party, Barnaby?
Headington and Headington Quarry must have been in the Oxford seat before this one was created
Votedave – I joined the Labour Party as a 17-year-old in 1977 & have never lapsed. I chaired the then Cambridge Organization of Labour Students (COLS) in the early 80s.