Oxford East
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 16271 (36%)
Labour: 16066 (35.6%)
Conservative: 7632 (16.9%)
Other: 5197 (11.5%)
Majority: 205 (0.5%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 6992 (16.7%)
Labour: 15405 (36.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 14442 (34.6%)
Green: 1813 (4.3%)
UKIP: 715 (1.7%)
Other: 2423 (5.8%)
Majority: 963 (2.3%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 7446 (18.7%)
Labour: 19681 (49.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 9337 (23.4%)
UKIP: 570 (1.4%)
Green: 1501 (3.8%)
Other: 1313 (3.3%)
Majority: 10344 (26%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 10540 (22%)
Labour: 27205 (56.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 7038 (14.7%)
Referendum: 1391 (2.9%)
Other: 1703 (3.6%)
Majority: 16665 (34.8%)
Boundary changes: Gains most of Carfax and Holywell wards and a small part of St Marys, covering the centre of Oxford and the University colleges.
Profile: Unlike Oxford West, which is largely rural and now contains relatively little of Oxford, this is an urban seat and contains the vast majority of Oxford itself.
The seat covers the centre of Oxford, and now includes the majority of the Oxford Colleges - the two city centre wards Holywell and Carfax are overwhelmingly made up of students. To the east the suburb of Headington also contains Oxford Brookes University and the teaching hospitals. Just under a quarter of residents are students and as might be expected it is a strong area for the Liberal Democrats and Green party.
It would be wrong however to characterise this seat as being made up of academic quadrangles, ivory towers and Guardian reading students - most people here are not students. Away from the city centre there a mixed residential suburbs including the industrial Cowley, home to BMW’s Mini production, and the large council estate of Blackbird Leys, with an unfortunate reputation for unemployment, crime and joyriding. A minor party, the Independent Working Class Association, has some strength on the council estates here and returns several councillors, however they have a negligible effect at the last election.
Note that Rallings & Thrasher`s notional figures have Oxford East as a Labour seat, so the mainstream media will treat this as a Labour held seat at the next election.
Current MP: Andrew Smith (Labour) born 1952, Reading. Formerly worked for the Co-op. Former Oxford councillor. First elected as MP for Oxford East in 1987. Minister for Employment 1997-1999, Chief Secretary of the Treasury 1999-2002 and Secretary of State for Work and Pensions 2002-2004, when he left the frontbench (more information at They work for you)
Candidates:
Steve Goddard (Liberal Democrat) born 1969, Taunton. Educated at Oxford University. University lecturer in Oxford. Oxford City Councillor from 1996-2002. Contested Oxford East in 2001 and 2005. Main policy interests are the environment, Europe and foreign affairs, civil liberties and constitutional reform.
Peter Tatchell (Green) born 1952, Melborne, Australia. Educated at Mount Waverley High School and North London Polytechnic. A high profile gay rights and human rights activist, Tatchell was the Labour candidate in the notorious 1983 Bermondsey by-election, which he lost to the Liberal candidate Simon Hughes. Following the by-election Tatchell worked as an author and in 1990 was a founder member of Outrage!, a radical gay-rights group. Tatchell most famously disrupted the then Archbishop of Canterbury`s Easter Sermon to denounce the church`s stance on homosexuality from the pulpit. Tatchell has also been active in demonstrating against the Mugabe regime in Zimbabwe and in 2001 unsuccessfully attempted a citizen`s arrest upon Mugabe in Belgium. Contested Bermondsey by-election 2003 as a Labour candidate, contested London Assembly elections 2000 as an Independent.
Ed Argar (Conservative) born 1977, Ashford, Kent. Educated Harvey GS, Folkestone, and Oriel College, Oxford. Currently management consultant, previously Political Adviser to Michael Ancram. Westminster City Councillor since 2006.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 105623
Male: 49.3%
Female: 50.7%
Under 18: 18.3%
Over 60: 16.4%
Born outside UK: 17.6%
White: 86.6%
Black: 2.9%
Asian: 5.3%
Mixed: 2.4%
Other: 2.8%
Christian: 61.4%
Hindu: 0.8%
Jewish: 0.6%
Muslim: 4.3%
Full time students: 23%
Graduates 16-74: 31.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 21.1%
Owner-Occupied: 55.1%
Social Housing: 24% (Council: 18%, Housing Ass.: 6%)
Privately Rented: 15.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.1%
















82 Responses
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“There were 2 defections from the Lib-Dems to the Tories and a few to Labour too”
Looking at defectors standing again for re-election with their new party this year:
Paul Sargent (Carfax ward) from LD to Con..
2008 result LD 35.7 Con 27.1
2006 result Green 32.6 LD 30.3 Con 22.5
Saj Malik (Cowley Marsh) from LD to Lab
2008: Lab 51.4 LD 29,7
2006: Lab 37.8 LD 29.8
Tia MacGregor (Quarry and Risinghurst) from LD to Con
2008: Lab 37.6 Con 29.8 LD 28
2006: Lab 39.7 LD 34.7 Con 17.6
In Quarry the defection seem to have helped the Tories. Lab did much better in Cowley Marsh than in 2006. In Carfaw it didn’t seem to have benefit much
June 14th, 2008 at 11:55 am“What exactly prompted Peter Tatchell to defect from Labour to the Green Party in 2004?”
The eye for the main chance.
Tatchell was hoping he’d be parachuted into winnable Brighton Pavillion on the back of his “gay rights” activism record (forget the fact, even if it is true, that he’s proved an utter walking disaster area as far as that’s been concerned). Unfortunately for him, Caroline Lucas had no intentions of standing aside for a self-publicist, & Brighton’s gays - let alone Greens - had no time for a carpetbagger.
I predict the Green vote collapsing here - but only for the Parliamentary election. Regardless of politics or sexual orientation, plenty will simply NEVER vote for Tatchell, no matter what flag-of-convenience he stands for, as many see him as beyond the pale for his remarks in the Guardian’s letter pages about sex below the age of consent (much lampooned by ‘Private Eye’).
June 29th, 2008 at 5:15 pmRuislip Northwood
“& Brighton’s gays - let alone Greens - had no time for a carpetbagger.”
But is not Caroline LUcas a carpetbagger ?
June 29th, 2008 at 10:05 pmReading West
Ironically I think she is from Oxfordshire - but she represents both areas as an MEP so she has some claim to the place.
June 30th, 2008 at 1:15 pmYeah don’t quite get all these insults about Tatchell and I don’t think it will wash with the intelligent people of Oxford. The Greens were unfortunate to have fallen back a little this year, though this has happened before and they have recovered. I know there are changes going on in the local party and have no doubt that Tatchell will enthuse activists and voters.
July 8th, 2008 at 3:32 pmOf course it is easy to say the Greens will fall away though I very much doubt this.
Sorry to miss this part of the thread a month ago - what has caused the defections from the Lib Dems? Within the party, the Oxford area has a reputation of leading the pack with hard campaign techniques and hard work generally.
July 8th, 2008 at 4:46 pm2010 - Very close result!
Liberal Democrat: 12000
July 8th, 2008 at 8:54 pmGreen: 11500
Labour: 11000
Conservative: 10500
Majority: 500
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