Oxford East
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 16271 (36%)
Labour: 16066 (35.6%)
Conservative: 7632 (16.9%)
Other: 5197 (11.5%)
Majority: 205 (0.5%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 6992 (16.7%)
Labour: 15405 (36.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 14442 (34.6%)
Green: 1813 (4.3%)
UKIP: 715 (1.7%)
Other: 2423 (5.8%)
Majority: 963 (2.3%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 7446 (18.7%)
Labour: 19681 (49.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 9337 (23.4%)
UKIP: 570 (1.4%)
Green: 1501 (3.8%)
Other: 1313 (3.3%)
Majority: 10344 (26%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 10540 (22%)
Labour: 27205 (56.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 7038 (14.7%)
Referendum: 1391 (2.9%)
Other: 1703 (3.6%)
Majority: 16665 (34.8%)
Boundary changes: Gains most of Carfax and Holywell wards and a small part of St Marys, covering the centre of Oxford and the University colleges.
Profile: Unlike Oxford West, which is largely rural and now contains relatively little of Oxford, this is an urban seat and contains the vast majority of Oxford itself.
The seat covers the centre of Oxford, and now includes the majority of the Oxford Colleges – the two city centre wards Holywell and Carfax are overwhelmingly made up of students. To the east the suburb of Headington also contains Oxford Brookes University and the teaching hospitals. Just under a quarter of residents are students and as might be expected it is a strong area for the Liberal Democrats and Green party.
It would be wrong however to characterise this seat as being made up of academic quadrangles, ivory towers and Guardian reading students – most people here are not students. Away from the city centre there a mixed residential suburbs including the industrial Cowley, home to BMW`s Mini production, and the large council estate of Blackbird Leys, with an unfortunate reputation for unemployment, crime and joyriding. A minor party, the Independent Working Class Association, has some strength on the council estates here and returns several councillors, however they have a negligible effect at the last election.
Note that Rallings & Thrasher`s notional figures have Oxford East as a Labour seat, so the mainstream media will treat this as a Labour held seat at the next election.
Outgoing MP: Andrew Smith(Labour) born 1952, Reading. Formerly worked for the Co-op. Former Oxford councillor. First elected as MP for Oxford East in 1987. Minister for Employment 1997-1999, Chief Secretary of the Treasury 1999-2002 and Secretary of State for Work and Pensions 2002-2004, when he left the frontbench (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Ed Argar (Conservative) born 1977, Ashford, Kent. Educated Harvey GS, Folkestone, and Oriel College, Oxford. Currently management consultant, previously Political Adviser to Michael Ancram. Westminster City Councillor since 2006. Andrew Smith(Labour) born 1952, Reading. Formerly worked for the Co-op. Former Oxford councillor. First elected as MP for Oxford East in 1987. Minister for Employment 1997-1999, Chief Secretary of the Treasury 1999-2002 and Secretary of State for Work and Pensions 2002-2004, when he left the frontbench (more information at They work for you)
Steve Goddard (Liberal Democrat) born 1969, Taunton. Educated at Oxford University. University lecturer in Oxford. Oxford City Councillor from 1996-2002. Contested Oxford East in 2001 and 2005. Main policy interests are the environment, Europe and foreign affairs, civil liberties and constitutional reform.
Sushila Dhall (Green) Counsellor. Oxford councillor. Former Oxfordshire councillor.
Julia Gasper (UKIP)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 105623
Male: 49.3%
Female: 50.7%
Under 18: 18.3%
Over 60: 16.4%
Born outside UK: 17.6%
White: 86.6%
Black: 2.9%
Asian: 5.3%
Mixed: 2.4%
Other: 2.8%
Christian: 61.4%
Hindu: 0.8%
Jewish: 0.6%
Muslim: 4.3%
Full time students: 23%
Graduates 16-74: 31.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 21.1%
Owner-Occupied: 55.1%
Social Housing: 24% (Council: 18%, Housing Ass.: 6%)
Privately Rented: 15.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.1%
Frederic,
I had tended to think that we wouldn’t get any evidence for a shift by students away from the LibDems or towards the Greens.
However: http://www.unite-group.co.uk/news-media/press-releases/1m-students-planning-to-boycott-the-ballot-box.go
“surveyed 1,566 students around the country, also asked students … which party they would back if an election were called tomorrow. The majority would vote for the Green Party (19 per cent), followed by the Conservatives (17 per cent), Labour (14 per cent) and the Liberal Democrats (13 per cent). Just 5 per cent said they would vote for the BNP.”
It isn’t clear, but I think 31% of the other 32% were “wouldn’t vote”. Adjusting to exclude these non-voters would give Green 28% (up at least 20% compared with a combined ‘others’), Con 25% (-4%), Lab 20% (-6%), LDs 19% (-16%) (figures compare with 2005 figures from http://www.opinionpanel.co.uk/clientUpload/pdf/TheStudentVotebyProfessorPaulWhiteley.pdf )
That is an 18%+ swing LD to Green among students! If the poll was reliable, and replicated in this constituency, that shift in student opinion alone would amount to a 4% reduction in the LD share and a similar increase in the Green share here.
It would be an unwise move for the Lib Dems to rest their strategy on winning over student voters.
However, the Greens should be looking at getting their vote up and beyond 15% in the constituency, if Oxford East is ever likely to be a future target seat.
Things may have moved in the Green Party’s favour in this constituency over the last 5 years (although the evidence for that is somewhat mixed), but it will be ferociously tough for it to make substantial progress in the Parliamentary election in this consitituency, with Lab and LibDems both going at it hammer-and-tongs, and trying to squeeze the Green vote. A General Election coincident with the local elections (ie May 6th) will probably help the Green share in the General Election here (unlike many other constituencies), but doubtless there still will be the tendency observed 5 years ago among some voters to vote Green in the local elections but not at the General Election: a key challenge for the party this time will be to restrict this.
Interesting information, Ben.
The issue for the Greens may well be how commited their potential vote is, both in terms of likeihood to vote at all and in terms of possible changes of mind. This raised two problems for them. Firstly, The Greens need to organise to get this student support out, and they do not have the same strength on the gound as the large parties. Secondly, the Greens are liable to lose votes because the TV debates discriminate against them.
One factor in the Green’s favour, however, is that students are more likely now to be influenced by the internet etc. as opposed to the TV. New canavassing techniques may be their way to gain some advantage.