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Oxford East

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Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 16271 (36%)
Labour: 16066 (35.6%)
Conservative: 7632 (16.9%)
Other: 5197 (11.5%)
Majority: 205 (0.5%)

Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 6992 (16.7%)
Labour: 15405 (36.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 14442 (34.6%)
Green: 1813 (4.3%)
UKIP: 715 (1.7%)
Other: 2423 (5.8%)
Majority: 963 (2.3%)

2001 Result
Conservative: 7446 (18.7%)
Labour: 19681 (49.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 9337 (23.4%)
UKIP: 570 (1.4%)
Green: 1501 (3.8%)
Other: 1313 (3.3%)
Majority: 10344 (26%)

1997 Result
Conservative: 10540 (22%)
Labour: 27205 (56.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 7038 (14.7%)
Referendum: 1391 (2.9%)
Other: 1703 (3.6%)
Majority: 16665 (34.8%)

Boundary changes: Gains most of Carfax and Holywell wards and a small part of St Marys, covering the centre of Oxford and the University colleges.

Profile: Unlike Oxford West, which is largely rural and now contains relatively little of Oxford, this is an urban seat and contains the vast majority of Oxford itself.

The seat covers the centre of Oxford, and now includes the majority of the Oxford Colleges - the two city centre wards Holywell and Carfax are overwhelmingly made up of students. To the east the suburb of Headington also contains Oxford Brookes University and the teaching hospitals. Just under a quarter of residents are students and as might be expected it is a strong area for the Liberal Democrats and Green party.

It would be wrong however to characterise this seat as being made up of academic quadrangles, ivory towers and Guardian reading students - most people here are not students. Away from the city centre there a mixed residential suburbs including the industrial Cowley, home to BMW’s Mini production, and the large council estate of Blackbird Leys, with an unfortunate reputation for unemployment, crime and joyriding. A minor party, the Independent Working Class Association, has some strength on the council estates here and returns several councillors, however they have a negligible effect at the last election.

Note that Rallings & Thrasher`s notional figures have Oxford East as a Labour seat, so the mainstream media will treat this as a Labour held seat at the next election.

portraitCurrent MP: Andrew Smith (Labour) born 1952, Reading. Formerly worked for the Co-op. Former Oxford councillor. First elected as MP for Oxford East in 1987. Minister for Employment 1997-1999, Chief Secretary of the Treasury 1999-2002 and Secretary of State for Work and Pensions 2002-2004, when he left the frontbench (more information at They work for you)

Candidates:
portraitSteve Goddard (Liberal Democrat) born 1969, Taunton. Educated at Oxford University. University lecturer in Oxford. Oxford City Councillor from 1996-2002. Contested Oxford East in 2001 and 2005. Main policy interests are the environment, Europe and foreign affairs, civil liberties and constitutional reform.
portraitPeter Tatchell (Green) born 1952, Melborne, Australia. Educated at Mount Waverley High School and North London Polytechnic. A high profile gay rights and human rights activist, Tatchell was the Labour candidate in the notorious 1983 Bermondsey by-election, which he lost to the Liberal candidate Simon Hughes. Following the by-election Tatchell worked as an author and in 1990 was a founder member of Outrage!, a radical gay-rights group. Tatchell most famously disrupted the then Archbishop of Canterbury`s Easter Sermon to denounce the church`s stance on homosexuality from the pulpit. Tatchell has also been active in demonstrating against the Mugabe regime in Zimbabwe and in 2001 unsuccessfully attempted a citizen`s arrest upon Mugabe in Belgium. Contested Bermondsey by-election 2003 as a Labour candidate, contested London Assembly elections 2000 as an Independent.
portraitEd Argar (Conservative) born 1977, Ashford, Kent. Educated Harvey GS, Folkestone, and Oriel College, Oxford. Currently management consultant, previously Political Adviser to Michael Ancram. Westminster City Councillor since 2006.

2001 Census Demographics

Total 2001 Population: 105623
Male: 49.3%
Female: 50.7%
Under 18: 18.3%
Over 60: 16.4%
Born outside UK: 17.6%
White: 86.6%
Black: 2.9%
Asian: 5.3%
Mixed: 2.4%
Other: 2.8%
Christian: 61.4%
Hindu: 0.8%
Jewish: 0.6%
Muslim: 4.3%
Full time students: 23%
Graduates 16-74: 31.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 21.1%
Owner-Occupied: 55.1%
Social Housing: 24% (Council: 18%, Housing Ass.: 6%)
Privately Rented: 15.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.1%

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142 Responses to “Oxford East”

Pages:« 16 7 8 9 [10] Show All

  1. Newbie Nick,
    further up the thread you would have found this,
    which totalled up the results from May 2008.


    “What were May’s local election results for this constituency?”

    Lab 10201 38.5%
    LD 5254 19.8%
    Con 4992 18.8%
    G 4205 15.9%
    IWCA 1329 5.0%
    Oth 537 2.0%

    Conservatives came very close in a few wards in the Headington area

    Lib Dem support (almost) certainly peaked in this seat in 2005.
    There was an abnormally large fall in Labour support across 2001/2005, at a time when the government wasn’t seriously at stake, and in 2005 partly due to the student vote supporting the LDs.

    Dig around a bit !

  2. J.James.
    This is the only seat in the country where L

  3. Labour’s odds have actually shortened ; bucking a substancial sustained national trend over the past 9-12 months.

    Back in March Ladbrokes offered 7-4 .Presently you can only back them at 5-4.

    I’ve been digging around but can’t find grounds for this.

    Anyone?

  4. There’s a strong possibility the winner may poll less than a third of the vote, maybe even less than 30% if the Greens do very well.

  5. “Labour’s odds have actually shortened ; bucking a substancial sustained national trend over the past 9-12 months.

    Back in March Ladbrokes offered 7-4 .Presently you can only back them at 5-4.

    I’ve been digging around but can’t find grounds for this.

    Anyone?”

    An extremely active and hard working local party that are also a very effective campaigning force.

  6. “This, of course, is only concerned with the student vote, a small part of the overall electorate”

    Students are about a quarter of the electorate, and the key point is that they form a very large majority of the voters that have come into the seat. If students turn out, and vote against Labour as they did last time, the Lib Dems will win, unless Labour can get a substantial swing against the Lib Dems in the rets of the seat.

  7. The County results across the constituency were:

    Lab 9570 33%
    LD 6263 21%
    Grn 6068 21%
    Con 5165 18%
    Ind 1190 4%
    UKIP 1040 4%

    This is a swing back to the Lib Dems from Labour since May 08.

Pages: « 16 7 8 9 [10] Show All

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