The UKPollingReport election guide for 2010 has now been archived and all comments closed. The new Election Guide for the 2015 election is now online at The old site is archived at the UK Web Archive.


2010 Results:
Conservative: 29200 (59.7%)
Labour: 4400 (9%)
Liberal Democrat: 12000 (24.53%)
BNP: 1241 (2.54%)
UKIP: 1360 (2.78%)
Green: 511 (1.04%)
English Democrat: 199 (0.41%)
Majority: 17200 (35.17%)

Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 24600 (50%)
Liberal Democrat: 19444 (39.6%)
Labour: 3982 (8.1%)
Other: 1130 (2.3%)
Majority: 5156 (10.5%)

Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 26718 (48.8%)
Labour: 4914 (9%)
Liberal Democrat: 21771 (39.8%)
UKIP: 1331 (2.4%)
Majority: 4947 (9%)

2001 Result
Conservative: 22334 (43.9%)
Labour: 5517 (10.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 22065 (43.3%)
UKIP: 996 (2%)
Majority: 269 (0.5%)

1997 Result
Conservative: 24417 (40.6%)
Labour: 10753 (17.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 21465 (35.7%)
Referendum: 2316 (3.8%)
Other: 1211 (2%)
Majority: 2952 (4.9%)

Boundary changes: There is a small adjustment to bring the constituency in line with ward boundaries, moving a small part of Bromley Common & Keston out of the seat, but the main change is the loss of Cray Valley West ward, the only ward in Orpington to return any Labour councillors, which moves to Bromley and Chislehurst.

Profile: Geographically the largest seat in London, Orpington is the south-eastern corner of London and large parts of it are open Kent countryside between Farnborough and Biggin Hill aerodrome , though the electorate is mostly leafy suburbia. It covers Orpington itself, Petts Wood, Farnborough, Chelsfield, Biggin Hill and the more industrial St Mary Cray, dominated by retail parks and only area in the seat to return non-Conservative councillors. This is an affluent area with a high owner occupier rate and little social housing, this might be expected to be solidly Conservative territory, Orpington though holds a special place in the traditions of the third party. Eric Lubbock`s famous victory for the Liberal party in the 1962 by-election saved the Liberal party from what had seemed like an inevitable slow death. It returned to the Conservative party in 1970 (Lubbock inherited a peerage shortly afterwards as Lord Avebury), but has remained a Liberal target since then – Chris Maines of the Liberal Democrats has fought this seat four times on the trot, in 2001 narrowing the Conservative majority to only 269. In 2005 though Horam increased his majority to a far healthier 4,947 and his perennial opponant Chris Maines is fighting pastures new in Lewisham East.

portraitCurrent MP: Jo Johnson (Conservative) Born 1971, son of former MEP Stanley Johnson (and brother of London Mayor Boris Johnson). Educated at Eton and Oxford University. Journalist.

2010 election candidates:
portraitJo Johnson (Conservative) Born 1971, son of former MEP Stanley Johnson (and brother of London Mayor Boris Johnson). Educated at Eton and Oxford University. Journalist.
portraitStephen Morgan (Labour) Educated at Liverpool University. Trade union liasion officer. Lambeth councillor.
portraitDavid McBride (Liberal Democrat) born 1973. Educated at St Olave`s Grammar School and Goldsmith`s College. Primary school teacher in Bexley. Bromley councillor since 1998 and leader of the Liberal Democrat group on Bromley council.
portraitTamara Galloway (Green) born 1967, Farnborough.
portraitMick Greenhough (UKIP)
portraitTess Cullhane (BNP) Contested 2004 GLA election and European election for the BNP, 2009 GLA election for the National Front.
portraitChris Snape (English Democrat)

2001 Census Demographics

Total 2001 Population: 86451
Male: 48.4%
Female: 51.6%
Under 18: 22.5%
Over 60: 22.9%
Born outside UK: 6.7%
White: 95.3%
Black: 1%
Asian: 1.7%
Mixed: 1.2%
Other: 0.8%
Christian: 75.5%
Hindu: 0.7%
Muslim: 0.9%
Full time students: 2.3%
Graduates 16-74: 18.9%
No Qualifications 16-74: 24.1%
Owner-Occupied: 83.7%
Social Housing: 10.3% (Council: 1%, Housing Ass.: 9.3%)
Privately Rented: 4.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 3.7%

NB - The constituency guide is now archived and is no longer being updated. It will be replaced by a new guide in 2013, once the fate of the boundary review is finally settled.