Oldham West and Royton
2010 Results:
Conservative: 10151 (23.66%)
Labour: 19503 (45.45%)
Liberal Democrat: 8193 (19.09%)
BNP: 3049 (7.11%)
UKIP: 1387 (3.23%)
Others: 627 (1.46%)
Majority: 9352 (21.79%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 18948 (49.5%)
Conservative: 8061 (21.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 7618 (19.9%)
Other: 3658 (9.6%)
Majority: 10887 (28.4%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 7998 (21.3%)
Labour: 18452 (49.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 7519 (20%)
BNP: 2606 (6.9%)
UKIP: 987 (2.6%)
Majority: 10454 (27.8%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 7076 (17.7%)
Labour: 20441 (51.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 4975 (12.4%)
Green: 918 (2.3%)
BNP: 6552 (16.4%)
Majority: 13365 (33.4%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 10693 (23.4%)
Labour: 26894 (58.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 5434 (11.9%)
Referendum: 1157 (2.5%)
Other: 1560 (3.4%)
Majority: 16201 (35.4%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Michael Meacher(Labour) Born 1939, Hemel Hempstead. Educated at Berkhamsted School and Oxford University. Prior to his election was a university lecturer. Contested Colchester 1966, Oldham West by-election 1968. First elected as MP for Oldham West in 1970. Under-secretary for Industry 1974-5, for Health and Social Security 1975-1979. Contested Labour`s Deputy leadership 1983. He was a member of the shadow cabinet thoughout most of Labour`s opposition during the 1980s and 90s, but was not appointed to the cabinet on their return to power, instead being appointed a Minister of State at the Department of the Environment 1997-2003. He attempted to run as a left-wing candidate for the Labour leadership in 2007, but unable to secure enough nominations stood down in favour of John McDonnell (more information at They work for you)
Kamran Ghafoor (Conservative) Educated at Salford University. Petrol station entrepreneur. Former Oldham councillor.Michael Meacher(Labour) Born 1939, Hemel Hempstead. Educated at Berkhamsted School and Oxford University. Prior to his election was a university lecturer. Contested Colchester 1966, Oldham West by-election 1968. First elected as MP for Oldham West in 1970. Under-secretary for Industry 1974-5, for Health and Social Security 1975-1979. Contested Labour`s Deputy leadership 1983. He was a member of the shadow cabinet thoughout most of Labour`s opposition during the 1980s and 90s, but was not appointed to the cabinet on their return to power, instead being appointed a Minister of State at the Department of the Environment 1997-2003. He attempted to run as a left-wing candidate for the Labour leadership in 2007, but unable to secure enough nominations stood down in favour of John McDonnell (more information at They work for you)
Mark Alcock (Liberal Democrat) Oldham councillor.
Helen Roberts (UKIP) Dave Joines (BNP)Shahid Miah (Respect) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 99059
Male: 48.5%
Female: 51.5%
Under 18: 27%
Over 60: 19.1%
Born outside UK: 10.9%
White: 81%
Black: 0.5%
Asian: 16.9%
Mixed: 1.2%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 68.3%
Hindu: 1%
Muslim: 15.6%
Full time students: 3.1%
Graduates 16-74: 11.1%
No Qualifications 16-74: 40.8%
Owner-Occupied: 65%
Social Housing: 26.7% (Council: 20.1%, Housing Ass.: 6.6%)
Privately Rented: 5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 7.4%
I once read out that this would be the the most vulnerable Tory seat if the Conservatives were to win the same number of seats Labour did in 1997 (418). I can’t remember where I read that, though.
For some time now the town of Oldham itself has been divided between two seats although it is actually about the right size to form a seat of its own. On the new boundaries four Oldham wards form a minority of Oldham East & Saddleworth and four form a minority of this seat – the majority being in the seperate communities of Chadderton and Royton. A more logical approach now would be to unite those eight wards of Oldham proper (adding either Chadderton South or Lees to make up the numbers) to create a seat with far better community of interest. This would bring together all the large Asian population within the town, currently split between the two seats and most of the council housing. Such a unified Oldham would go near to the top of seats in measurements of deprivation. Nearly 50% of Coldhurst ward’s population is of Bangladeshi origin – the highest figure by a long way of any ward outside of Tower Hamlets. Most of the other wards have a large pakistani population or a large council estate presence or both.
Converesely the communities of Royton and Chadderton are almost all white and mostly owner occupied. They would fit better with similar twons of Crompton and Shaw and with Saddleworth. Such a seat (Royton & Saddleworth) would be a potential three way marginal – indeed in 2001 the BNP might almost have made it a four way marginal.
Oldham West last elected at a Conservative at a 1968 by-election, when Labour were typically over 20% behind in the polls. Michael Meacher regained the seat two years later.
Former Labour MP James Lamond passed away on 20th November aged 78. He represented Oldham East 1970-1983 and Oldham Central and Royton from 1983 until he retired in 1992.
It seems Oldham has been subject to a lot of boundary changes in the past forty years – much more so than somewhere like say, Bradford.
That’s partly down, I think, to shifting patterns within Greater Manchester – and the annexation of Saddleworth from the West Riding.
Keith Bruce Campbell QC won the 1968 By-Election for the Tories,before losing to Michael Meacher in 1970.He was later convicted of smuggling in a famous court case in the 1980′s.
My prediction for this seat;
Labour 18000
Cons 11000
Lib Dem 6000
BNP 3000
Others 1500
With current opinion poll trends, one wonders whether this seat would go Conservative if a by-election were to be held now, as in 1968.
The local election aggregate votes within this seat in May 2008:
Lab 11466 41.2 %
LD 8127 29.2 %
Con 6221 22.4 %
oth 1995 7.2 %
Labour still has a majority of council seats within this constituency too.
Of the three elements of the seat the Conservatives do well in Chadderton and carried it handily enough this May but somewhat underperform in Royton where they ran third (LDs were first there). They are desperately weak in the four wards which constitute Oldham ‘proper’, polling less than 10% within those wards this May.
This being so it is hard to envisage the Tories mounting an effective challenge in a byelection here and though they narrowly hold second place its possible the LDs could put Labour under more pressure in such an eventuality. After Glasgow East its fair to say that no seat looks safe for Labour in a by-election now, but to win the LDs would need to squeeze the Tory vote and it isnt clear that they are able to perform these kind of tricks at byelections nowadays. Somewhere where they were the very clear challenger I suspect they would, but here it is less clear by virtue of their third place though in Oldham generally they are the main opposition to Labour.
The Tories would be better off focussing on the other seat, Oldham East & Saddleworth – though Saddleworth seems to have swung sharply to the Lib Dems in recent times
Dave – the swing required would be of a similar order to that in Crewe so your scenario is certainly possible. If Labour lose this at the general it would be as a result of an electoral tsunami way larger than I am expecting.
It may be true that a swing of the order of magnitude which occurred in Crewe were repeated here that the Tories would gain the seat. I do however doubt that such a swing would be repeated here. The local electin results here show no Tory progress compared with 2005 whereas those in Crewe & Nantwich showed considerable progress. INfact I just looked back at the results from May 2007 for that seat and they were very similar to the respective shares achieved at the byelection (May 2008 was somewhat more skewed by a large vote for Independents).
It isnt quite outside the realms of possibilty but there wouldnt be the wholesale switch from Labour to Tory that we saw at Crewe. I think they could only win it in a heavily split poll with the LDs also challenging and with not much better than 30% of the vote. Chadderton could vote heavily for them and there is more potential in Royton than has been realised lately, but they dont have the potential in this seat overall that they did have in Crewe & Nantwich.
If the 2008 elections are an indication, this seat will have a low swing with Labour well ahead – Tories should improve in second place, but still a fairly fragmented opposition.
Yes, I’d forgotten how disappointing the local election results were here at a time the Conservatives were ahead in Rother Valley, Heywood & Middleton, Coventry North West etc. I wouldn’t expect Labour to lose here at a general election in any case.
This was the by-election result for Oldham West on 13 June 1968. It was an interesting choice of third place;
C 11,904
Lab 8,593
All Party Alliance 3,389
L 1,707
I guess Oldham West in 1968 included Chadderton as well as the western part of the then Oldham county borough. Robert Waller describes Werneth in this seat as being ‘once the grand west end of Oldham, but its large mansions around the park are decayed or demolished and it is heavily Asian’. Presumably that process of decay was not so well progressed 40 years ago.
Actually the Conservatives came closer to gaining Oldham East in 1970 than they were to holding Oldham West. East had been a Conservative seat in the 1950s but was actually gained by Labour in 1959. This was the only seat in England where this occurred that year (there were a few in Scotland), but there was a pro-Labour swing in a number of seats in the region and Rochdale was also a Labour gain compared with 1955 (they had actually gained it in a 1958 by-election)
Mark Alcock has been selected for the Lib Dems here.
I’ve been a member of the “Mark Alcock 4 OWaR” Facebook group for months now Matt =P
How many members does it have out of interest?
I can’t access it here at work but if I remember to do so tonight I’ll let you know (unless, you know, it’s of such importance you feel like joining yourself….=) =P)
There are 223 members of the Mark Alcock facebook group =P
Have Chadderton and Failsworth ever been in the same constituency?
They were both in Oldham West from 1983 to 1997. Chadderton had been in Oldham West before 1983 and remained after 1997, but Failsworth was previously in Manchester Openshaw and was moved to Ashton under Lyne in 1997.
Thanks Pete
The two Oldham constituencies had very similar results between 1983 and 1992.
Was that expected or did the Conservatives underachieve in one of them (as they did in many Lancashire textile towns)?
I think they did underachieve somewhat in Oldham West where there was only a very small swing compared with the notional result from 1979. In Oldham C & Royton there was a larger swing, though of course the Tory vote was down in both seats and in Central & Royton there happened to be a stronger performance by the SDP.
The old Oldham East had bucked the trend by I think being the only seat in England Labour gained from the Tories in 1959, which I think I may have mentioned elsewhere.
Kamran Ghafoor has been selected as the Conservative candidate here.
He is a former Oldham Councillor.
I am surprised Michael Meacher is still planning to stand again, after 40 years as an MP and 71 years old, surely he has had enough by now?
Lab Hold= 7,000 maj
PPC News!
Shahid Miah has been selected as the candidate here for Respect.
Lab Hold
Maj 7400
Surprising figure for Respect to run against. It won’t make a lot of difference though, of course.
Lab maj 6,000
LAB HOLD
Did anyone see that report on Newsnight last night about the racial segregation of Oldham, and the attempts to solve the problem by merging a school in a white area with one in an Asian area?
Here in London, across all areas, all races live together and most of the time get along fine (there are a few exceptions like Barking/Dagenham of course).
I wonder why assimilation has worked quite well in London yet in northern mill towns like Oldham the white and Asian communities have almost completely separated. Do both communities still mostly vote Labour?
dont you mean ‘intergration’ as opposed to ‘assimilation’ which is altogether quite different!
If you’re going to be anal you should at least make sure you can spell.
well you would describe it as being anal am just pointing out that they are two v different things and assimilation has some negative connotations
‘Did anyone see that report on Newsnight last night about the racial segregation of Oldham, and the attempts to solve the problem by merging a school in a white area with one in an Asian area?’
I did and I found the attitudes of both sets of children – white and Asian – very disheartening but most of all surprising
It would be tempting to say that although the capital city London is becoming atypical of the UK as a whole. The last election demonstrated that but i think in this case it’s Oldham which stands out as unique
There was obviously the race riots prior to the 2001 election, which saw Nick Griffin stand as a candidate, but I remember a documentary Darkus Howe did around the same time, attempting to find out how racist the UK was – and I remember then he said that of all the towns he visited, Oldham was the one which he found the most racist
I think he also went to other towns similarly affected
The one thing these places do have in common (apart from high levels of immigrant communities) – Oldham, Burnley, Blackburn, Dagenham, Barking – is a great deal of unemployment, poverty and urban deprivation – factors which the far right have always fed off
What was most shocking about Oldham was that it was ordinary, everyday school kids from all sorts of walks of life, who held these views – almost monolithically too
I saw the programme. It’s an interesting idea to merge the schools. I hope it is successful to some extent. Their views don’t surprise me that much because in poor and economically depressed areas it’s so much easier for those kinds of views to come to the surface than in wealthy areas.
‘Their views don’t surprise me that much because in poor and economically depressed areas it’s so much easier for those kinds of views to come to the surface than in wealthy areas.’
Oldham certainly fits that description (one has to go there to see just how run-down it is) but what surprised me most was that the kids expressing these views – and this relates to both whites and Asians – didn’t seem to be from exclusively deprived backgrounds
That’s right. The families interviewed were articulate and seemed either skilled working class or lower middle class.
There are many working class areas in London where white and non-white live together in significant numbers without much racial tension. I live adjacent to Catford, Sydenham and Downham which all fit that description.
Maybe the difference is that these areas contain a lot of black people but not many Muslims.
‘I live adjacent to Catford, Sydenham and Downham which all fit that description.’
That part of London (South East) has had its fair share of racial problems in the past
There was the Stephen Lawrence murder in nearby Eltham in 1993 and the BNP have their headquarters in Welling but over the past 10 years the BNP and others have found their strongest base of support further east in places like Barking, Dagenham and before that, Tower Hamlets
I’ve certainly haven’t noticed the racial tension in places like Eltham and Lewisham match those levels in East London and in places like Burnley and particularly Oldham
Nick Griffin won 16% of the vote here in 2001 – his best performance at a general election
Lewisham is very different to Eltham (which is in Greenwich borough). There is very little racial tension in Lewisham borough and hasn’t really been much historically.
I agree, further south and east into outer London is a different kettle of fish. Eltham, Thamesmead, Bexley and also Bromley to some extent are more racially tense (also these are still predominantly white areas).
Politically, how does the race issue affect Oldham (except for generating a high BNP vote)?
There certainly was historically in Lewisham, if one goes back to the 1970s when the NF almost won a council by-election in Deptford. As with other inner-areas where the far-right used to be strong such as Tower Hamlets and Newham, their support will have faded as the demographics have tipped over to a pojnt where ethnic minority groups are dominant and those white people who find this objectionable have long since moved out (probably to places like Bexley and Bromley and Swanley)
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