And yes you’re right, we can say with some degree of certainty (surroundes by sea on three sides making it difficult to change too much) that a Caithness and Sutherland based seat will indeed still exist following the boundary changes. That case I will agree.

I think Joseph is correct however – it is possible the LDs could end up with no mainland seats because so much of their vote was an anti con tactical vote (or possibly a personal vote).

In response to Shaun I would have thought it is certain that there would be an Inverness Skye and Lochaber seat and an expanded Caithness Sutherland and Ross seat with Nairn being detached from Inverness and going in with Moray so Kennedy might stand in C, S&R (if Thurso retires) and narrowly cling on due his profile whereas Danny Alexander would probably lose anyway in Inverness etc but might just cling on.

I wouldn’t pay much attention to Baston’s Firth of Tay idea though, sounds unlikely but how exactly they will redraw Mid Scotland is unclear.

I’m not saying thats what will happen. But its a bit early to be saying that the Lib Dems WILL hold x, y and z particularly seats that are to undergo radical changes.

I think if either or both Ming Campbell and Charles Kennedy retired then these seats (or their successors) would fall to the SNP. It’s only their personal votes which enable them to hold on.

What about Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine?

It is much more marginal than Dumfries & Galloway, and Lib Dem. The SNP could come through the middle (as they won there in May) but the SNP are much weaker at Westminster.

I think its the third most likely Con Gain or the 49th least unwinnable seat (another way of looking at it).

I think the Lib Dems will hold O & S, Fife NE, Skye & Lochaber. SNP will gain Caithness and Argyll and Edinburgh West will be a close three way contest (Lab/SNP/LD). East Dunbartonshire is the most likely LD seat to fall to Lab.

1. Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
2. a redrawn Dumfriesshire and Lanark
3. an Angus North and Mearns seat
4. Dumfries and Galloway (very unlikely)

Then I think the tories are unlikely to get anywhere, it just won’t happen. I can’t see the tories defeating Pete Wishart in Perth & NP. They would be most sensible just to throw the kitchen sink at the first three areas as these are the only possible places where they might gain a little bit at the GE.

By contrast, the SNP probably won’t win anything. The reason they have never won here since 2005 is because the Tories stillpoll so incredibly strongly in ‘south perthshire’ in the Strathearn areas. If they go back into Perth next time, the SNP could actually be challenged strongly there by Tories. The remainder Clackmannanshire area would then be perfectly safe for Labour whoever it was paired with. The break up of Stirling will also help Labour if that comes about.

The only other Tory prospect then could be to try and relink Ayr to Troon and Prestwick. But Labour and the ‘independent’ boundary commissioners will be on the look out to ensure that doesn’t happen!

Of course I could be wrong like the Holyrood election and there could be a wholescale SNP surge but it’s not most likely.