Ochil and South Perthshire
2010 Results:
Conservative: 10342 (20.49%)
Labour: 19131 (37.91%)
Liberal Democrat: 5754 (11.4%)
SNP: 13944 (27.63%)
UKIP: 689 (1.37%)
Green: 609 (1.21%)
Majority: 5187 (10.28%)
2005 Results:
Labour: 14645 (31.4%)
SNP: 13957 (29.9%)
Conservative: 10021 (21.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 6218 (13.3%)
Other: 1856 (4%)
Majority: 688 (1.5%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election: Name of seat changed from Ochil.
2001 Result
Conservative: 4235 (12%)
Labour: 16004 (45.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 3253 (9.2%)
SNP: 10655 (30.2%)
Other: 1156 (3.3%)
Majority: 5349 (15.2%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 6383 (14.6%)
Labour: 19707 (45%)
Liberal Democrat: 2262 (5.2%)
SNP: 15055 (34.4%)
Referendum: 210 (0.5%)
Other: 169 (0.4%)
Majority: 4652 (10.6%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Gordon Banks(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Gerald Michaluk (Conservative) Educated at Lendrick Muir School. Managing director of a marketing management company. Contested Glasgow Pollok in 2007 Scottish elections.Gordon Banks(Labour) (more information at They work for you)Graeme Littlejohn (Liberal Democrat)Annabelle Ewing (SNP) born 1960, the daughter of SNP matriarch Winnie Ewing. Educated at Craigholme School for Girls and Glasgow University. Lawyer. MP for Perth 2001-2005. Contested Ochil and South Perthshire 2005 and Falkirk East in the 2007 Scottish Parliament elections.Hilary Charles (Green) David Bushby (UKIP) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 93212
Male: 48.6%
Female: 51.4%
Under 18: 24.6%
Over 60: 21.4%
Born outside UK: 3.3%
White: 99.2%
Asian: 0.3%
Mixed: 0.2%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 63.9%
Graduates 16-74: 21.1%
No Qualifications 16-74: 31.3%
Owner-Occupied: 64.8%
Social Housing: 24.4% (Council: 20.2%, Housing Ass.: 4.2%)
Privately Rented: 6.6%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 3.8%
Labour winning in an area doesn’t equate with it “going downhill” – that really is snobbery. I don’t see Hampstead becoming undesirable since Glenda Jackson first won there (indeed parts of it have gone even further upmarket), and there are countless other examples. It may be that Dumfries isn’t as nice a place as it was, however; I haven’t been for anything long enough to argue on that point.
Well I think he is confusing cause and effect – while the cause of places like Dumfries stepping on the downwards escalator probably isn’t the tenancy of a Labour MP, such a social shift probably has the effect of delivering Labour voters.
‘such a social shift probably has the effect of delivering Labour voters.’
I agree with this and I’m sure the decline of Dumfries has little to do with Labour, but if they had wanted, the local MP and MSP could have campaigned vigorously against new retail parks at Dumfries – these are the cause of the decline in the town centre, unquestionably.
I think that statement is true of seats like Streatham and Brent North. It is hard to argue that demographic changes have not resulted in a Labour MP being elected in what was once a safe Tory seat.
The statement is not true, however, of East Renfrewshire or Westminster North where a stronger culture of Labour voting has become established in very middle class areas.
Demographic change has not been as evident in seats like Glasgow Cathcart or Manchester Withington as is often believed, more that large private sector middle class voters have given way to public sector middle class voters. Is that necessary the constituency going down hill?
Well it’s a form of demographic change, of sorts, but it’s a good point nonetheless Dalek.
Specifically re Westminster North I’m not sure that it’s the middle-class areas which helped Labour hold the seat – it was down mainly to a greater solidity in the more working-class wards which have if anything become even safer for Labour than before, though it’s likely Labour won Maida Vale & Little Venice in the general election simultaneously with the Tories holding those wards fairly easily in the local election on the same day.
I think it’s rather unlikely actually that Labour carried those wards in the general election though Maida Vale may have been relatively close. I think you were right the first time in that Labour would have built up a huge majority in the three wards they hold in the North West of the seat and to a slightly lesser extent in Church Street while the Conservatives enjoyed somewhat smaller majorities in the other six wards. Differential turnout may have played a role in an opposite way to the usual pattern (that is to say the more working class areas turned out more heavily) and of course a large proportion of the residents in the most wealthy areas are not eligible to vote in general elections
I can think of three types of demographic change that might hurt the Cosnervatives:
Public sector workers replacing private sector workers of a similar socioeconomic class – Leeds NW, Sheffield Hallam, East Renfrewshire.
Non white voters replacing white voters of a similar socioeconomic class – Brent N, Ealing N, Mitcham
Lower socioeconomic class voters replacing higher class voters by either increased council housing – Liverpool Gartson, Glasgow Cathcart, Sheffield Heeley in the 1970s – or degredation of former upmarket areas – Manchester Withington, Streatham in the 1980s.
While the large Castlemilk estate developed in Glasgow Cathcart in the 1950′s – 1970′s the constituency also lost its large Northern Labour heartlands in 1974 (Govanhill).
The Govanhill area was so large that when it was combined with Glasgow Gorbals to form the new Glasgow Queens Park in 1974 more of Queens Park was formerly Cathcart than Gorbals.
Boundary changes in 1983 and 2005 clearly benefited the Tories, and only 1997 reversed the effect of the 1983 boundary changes.
Considering the boundary changes, I think Glasgow Cathcart is more a case of decline in Orange voting patterns in working class protestant areas and a greater dependancy of middle class voters on public service employment.
While there has been a decline in Orange voting patterns amongst protestant voters, the catholic votes remain solidly loyal to Labour, even in becoming established as middle class. It is now quite common to be a ‘son of the manse’ (son of a protestant Church of Scotland minister) and be a Labour politician.
I also think that much of the ethnic Scottish protestant population has migrated to England while the Irish – Scottish catholic population has remained and become more established in Scotland.
This is evident when you consider many Scottish Tory MP’s representing English constituencies and the increasingly high proportion of Irish – Scottish politicians representing Scottish Labour constituencies.
“This is evident when you consider many Scottish Tory MP’s representing English constituencies and the increasingly high proportion of Irish – Scottish politicians representing Scottish Labour constituencies.”
Should read -
“This is evident when you consider many Scottish Tory MP’s representing English constituencies are of Scottish protestant extraction and the increasingly high proportion of politicians of Irish – Scottish catholic extraction representing Scottish Labour constituencies.”
Predictions for May 2011 Scottish Parliament election
Clackmannanshire and Dunblane
SNP – 12000
Lab – 11000
Con – 4000
LD – 3000
Perthshire South and Kinross-shire
SNP – 12000
Con – 9000
Lab – 5000
LD – 4000
I don’t see why in Perthshire Sth. and Kinross-shire there would be a widened SNP majority but the Dunblane result sounds credible enough.
I think that in Clackmannan, there will be a small-ish swing back to Labour from SNP, but also that they will pick up some votes from the LDs and that might just be enough to give them the seat.
My earlier prediction was probably too generous for Labour in Clacks. and Dunblane and therefore quite silly. I would probably expect a Labour gain by about 1500 though.
Lab 41%
SNP 36%
Con 17%
LD 6%
I think Labour would only lose this seat and possibly Falkirk in a general election. There’s no way they would suffer a collapse as seen in the Scottish Parliament elections as they will be focusing on the Coalition thus SNP voters defecting back to Labour next time. Labour could even gain seats in Scotland with East Dunbartonshire and/or DCT the most likely candidates. Obviously the boundary changes will affect things, but all the same, Labour will come out of the next election rather well.
I don’t disagree with that. Boundary changes could also help the SNP in Dundee W but it’s hard to see the SNP gaining more seats than three or so from Labour in a general election (other than mopping up the ex LD vote in the north) because of the higher turnout etc even with a Lab>SNP shift in some central belt seats making them marginal for the GE after.
Of course I could be wrong like the Holyrood election and there could be a wholescale SNP surge but it’s not most likely.
I also agree with that generally. As Joe says, it depends on the boundaries, but Labour should gain in the new East Dunbartonshire area, and perhaps whatever replaces Dumfriesshire (unless a sort of Galloway seat without Dumfries in it could be recreated in some way).
By contrast, the SNP probably won’t win anything. The reason they have never won here since 2005 is because the Tories stillpoll so incredibly strongly in ‘south perthshire’ in the Strathearn areas. If they go back into Perth next time, the SNP could actually be challenged strongly there by Tories. The remainder Clackmannanshire area would then be perfectly safe for Labour whoever it was paired with. The break up of Stirling will also help Labour if that comes about.
The only other Tory prospect then could be to try and relink Ayr to Troon and Prestwick. But Labour and the ‘independent’ boundary commissioners will be on the look out to ensure that doesn’t happen!
A Borders seat might also be a decent prospect for the Conservatives, although Michael Moore may be rather more difficult to unseat than his former Lib Dem colleague at Holyrood.
in terms of gains for the tories I reckon in order of probability on possible likely boundaries:
1. Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
2. a redrawn Dumfriesshire and Lanark
3. an Angus North and Mearns seat
4. Dumfries and Galloway (very unlikely)
Then I think the tories are unlikely to get anywhere, it just won’t happen. I can’t see the tories defeating Pete Wishart in Perth & NP. They would be most sensible just to throw the kitchen sink at the first three areas as these are the only possible places where they might gain a little bit at the GE.
Yes, as Richard has said it is always wise to put money on the Scottish Tories underachieving , as they do of course – all the time, and vastly when you consider that there are tens of thousands of small-c conservatives in Scotland. I fear that if we continue in the same vein we will gain no ground whatsoever, losing our DCT seat but gaining the Borders one to compensate – thus leaving us no further. In fact we may not even gain the Borders seat if LD popularity there recovers between now and the next election. While I’m at it, this very seat is a potential target too, but we are obviously far, far away from gaining it at present.
1. Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
2. a redrawn Dumfriesshire and Lanark
3. an Angus North and Mearns seat
4. Dumfries and Galloway (very unlikely)
What about Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine?
It is much more marginal than Dumfries & Galloway, and Lib Dem. The SNP could come through the middle (as they won there in May) but the SNP are much weaker at Westminster.
I think its the third most likely Con Gain or the 49th least unwinnable seat (another way of looking at it).
I think the Lib Dems will hold O & S, Fife NE, Skye & Lochaber. SNP will gain Caithness and Argyll and Edinburgh West will be a close three way contest (Lab/SNP/LD). East Dunbartonshire is the most likely LD seat to fall to Lab.
“I think the Lib Dems will hold O & S, Fife NE, Skye & Lochaber. SNP will gain Caithness and Argyll and Edinburgh West will be a close three way contest (Lab/SNP/LD). East Dunbartonshire is the most likely LD seat to fall to Lab.”
I think if either or both Ming Campbell and Charles Kennedy retired then these seats (or their successors) would fall to the SNP. It’s only their personal votes which enable them to hold on.
Well hold on, don’t forget that there are major boundary changes in scotland due. Lewis Baston’s proposals has Charles Kennedy’s seat broken up significantly, whilst Sir Menzies Campbell’s seat stretches right around the Firth of Tay which I suspect would significantly boost the SNP there.
I’m not saying thats what will happen. But its a bit early to be saying that the Lib Dems WILL hold x, y and z particularly seats that are to undergo radical changes.
In response to Dalek I was anticipating the boundary changes – Aberdeenshire W&K will be carved up.
I think Joseph is correct however – it is possible the LDs could end up with no mainland seats because so much of their vote was an anti con tactical vote (or possibly a personal vote).
In response to Shaun I would have thought it is certain that there would be an Inverness Skye and Lochaber seat and an expanded Caithness Sutherland and Ross seat with Nairn being detached from Inverness and going in with Moray so Kennedy might stand in C, S&R (if Thurso retires) and narrowly cling on due his profile whereas Danny Alexander would probably lose anyway in Inverness etc but might just cling on.
I wouldn’t pay much attention to Baston’s Firth of Tay idea though, sounds unlikely but how exactly they will redraw Mid Scotland is unclear.
I try not to give too much heed to Lewis Baston’s ideas but they are fascinating aren’t they and they are the only solid proposals we have to work with at the moment until September…when we can all forget quite happily about Lewis Baston’s ideas!
And yes you’re right, we can say with some degree of certainty (surroundes by sea on three sides making it difficult to change too much) that a Caithness and Sutherland based seat will indeed still exist following the boundary changes. That case I will agree.