Ochil and South Perthshire
2005 Results:
Labour: 14645 (31.4%)
SNP: 13957 (29.9%)
Conservative: 10021 (21.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 6218 (13.3%)
Other: 1856 (4%)
Majority: 688 (1.5%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election: Name of seat changed from Ochil.
2001 Result
Conservative: 4235 (12%)
Labour: 16004 (45.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 3253 (9.2%)
SNP: 10655 (30.2%)
Other: 1156 (3.3%)
Majority: 5349 (15.2%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 6383 (14.6%)
Labour: 19707 (45%)
Liberal Democrat: 2262 (5.2%)
SNP: 15055 (34.4%)
Referendum: 210 (0.5%)
Other: 169 (0.4%)
Majority: 4652 (10.6%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Outgoing MP: Gordon Banks(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Gerald Michaluk (Conservative) Educated at Lendrick Muir School. Managing director of a marketing management company. Contested Glasgow Pollok in 2007 Scottish elections.Gordon Banks(Labour) (more information at They work for you)Annabelle Ewing (SNP) born 1960, the daughter of SNP matriarch Winnie Ewing. Educated at Craigholme School for Girls and Glasgow University. Lawyer. MP for Perth 2001-2005. Contested Ochil and South Perthshire 2005 and Falkirk East in the 2007 Scottish Parliament elections.Hilary Charles (Green) David Bushby (UKIP)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 93212
Male: 48.6%
Female: 51.4%
Under 18: 24.6%
Over 60: 21.4%
Born outside UK: 3.3%
White: 99.2%
Asian: 0.3%
Mixed: 0.2%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 63.9%
Graduates 16-74: 21.1%
No Qualifications 16-74: 31.3%
Owner-Occupied: 64.8%
Social Housing: 24.4% (Council: 20.2%, Housing Ass.: 4.2%)
Privately Rented: 6.6%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 3.8%
Clackmannan & East Strilingshire had existed from at least 1918. It it returned a Labour MP at every election between 1922 and 1979 (except for 1931 and Oct 1974).
It was briefly held by Dick Douglas from Feb – Oct 1974, who was the defeated Labour candidate in the 1967 Glasgow Pollok By Election.
I was looking at the outline of the seat on the map and note that the Labour vote must be concentrated in a very small geographic area of the seat. Certainly seems a strange marriage of areas. As Iain says there will a clear Conservative win in the South Perthshire, Kinross and Dollar section of the seat and a Labour win in Alloa and the foothill villages but tes the SNP second in both. It’s all going to depend on who can get their people out and at the same time persuade them not to vote tactically. I think it will be a close Conservative/ Labour result. There is very little Labour support in the north and west of the seat so I think it depends if the Conservatives can persude voters there to abandon the SNP for a Westminster election.
RMMGLAS says
“I think it will be a close Conservative/ Labour result..”
Here are Labbrokes latest odds for this seat:
SNP 1.66
Labour 4.00
Conservative 4.00
So yes, close between Labour & Conservative-for second place
So does that mean all the seats will be won according to a Bookies odds ?
RMMGLAS says “So does that mean all the seats will be won according to a Bookies odds ?”
No-but you would be well advised to be cautious about discounting the bookies’s favourite as an also-ran in any constituency.
As to the idea that the Tories (or Labour) can successfully deploy the argument that the SNP are irrelevant in a UK election, you need to bear in mind that this argument was used in 2005 when the SNP were a declining force and it barely worked then.
I can’t see it being a more powerful argument now with the SNP much stronger now than in 2005.
Yes but the SNP weren’t in power at Holyrood then. I think it’s possible that the Unionist parties can say well they have power in Scotland why send SNP MPs to Westminster when they don’t want to be part of a UK government ?
Not sure how effective this could be but there is a differential in the SNP polling figures for Holyrood and Westminster so some voters obviously agree.
RMMGLAS
“……there is a differential in the SNP polling figures for Holyrood and Westminster so some voters obviously agree.”
You are correct in saying that, but even the worst opinion poll for the SNP shows SNP support for Wesminster up from <18% in 2005 to 21%. now.
Indeed , it will be interesting to see where that increase is and whether it’s in the urban areas where they are fighting Labour or in the rural areas where they are fending off the Conservatives ? If it’s the former they could be vunerable in Perth & North Perthshire and Angus while taking the likes of Kilmarnock and Dundee from Labour ? Not as straight forward in this seat as it’s a three way marginal.
This seat is a clear battle between the SNP and the tories
Hilary Charles has been selected at the Green PPC for this seat. More info from Strathearn Hearld here:-
http://www.strathearnherald.co.uk/strathearn-news/strathearn-news/2010/01/29/green-party-announce-ochil-and-south-perthshire-westminster-candidate-64054-25700080/