Nuneaton
2010 Results:
Conservative: 18536 (41.52%)
Labour: 16467 (36.88%)
Liberal Democrat: 6846 (15.33%)
BNP: 2797 (6.26%)
Majority: 2069 (4.64%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 18219 (46%)
Conservative: 14376 (36.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 5260 (13.3%)
Other: 1757 (4.4%)
Majority: 3843 (9.7%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 17665 (39%)
Labour: 19945 (44%)
Liberal Democrat: 5884 (13%)
UKIP: 1786 (3.9%)
Majority: 2280 (5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 15042 (34.7%)
Labour: 22577 (52.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 4820 (11.1%)
UKIP: 873 (2%)
Majority: 7535 (17.4%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 16540 (30.9%)
Labour: 30080 (56.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 4732 (8.8%)
Referendum: 1533 (2.9%)
Other: 628 (1.2%)
Majority: 13540 (25.3%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Marcus Jones (Conservative) Educated at St Thomas More School. Conveyancing manager. Nuneaton and Bedworth councillor since 2005, leader of Nuneaton and Bedworth council 2008-2009.
Marcus Jones (Conservative) Educated at St Thomas More School. Conveyancing manager. Nuneaton and Bedworth councillor since 2005, leader of Nuneaton and Bedworth council 2008-2009.
Jayne Innes (Labour) born 1970. Educated at the University of Warwick. Former Aide to Geoffrey Robinson MP. Now a consultant working mainly with charities. Director of an inward investment and job creation body. Contested Birmingham Yardley 2005
Christina Jebb (Liberal Democrat)
Martyn Findley (BNP) Nuneaton and Bedworth councillor. 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 87593
Male: 49.1%
Female: 50.9%
Under 18: 24.4%
Over 60: 18.4%
Born outside UK: 4%
White: 95.3%
Black: 0.3%
Asian: 3.5%
Mixed: 0.6%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 77%
Hindu: 0.6%
Muslim: 2.1%
Sikh: 0.8%
Full time students: 2%
Graduates 16-74: 13.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 34.3%
Owner-Occupied: 76.3%
Social Housing: 15.6% (Council: 13.1%, Housing Ass.: 2.4%)
Privately Rented: 5.6%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 6.7%
If a swing of less than 5% here equates to the Conservatives winning a national landslide, that would be great!
May 2010 most likely
C 20,100
*Lab 18,600
LD 4,200
BNP 1,800
UKIP 1,400
C maj 1,500
C gain from Lab
If an election were held today I think the Tories would win, but I think the actual result is more likely to be a narrow Labour hold. But that’s assuming Labour do stage a genuine recovery as the election date approaches.
I share Andy Stidwill’s views that Nuneaton could just fail to go the way of the Tories come 2010. At the last General Election, Wolverhampton South West yielded an unexpectedly depressing result for the Conservatives, and this time Nuneaton could be in a similar situation.
‘At the last General Election, Wolverhampton South West yielded an unexpectedly depressing result for the Conservatives, and this time Nuneaton could be in a similar situation’
But Wolverhampton South West is a much better Tory prospect than this seat.
There’s nothing nice about Wolverhampton but the South West of the town (since it doesn’t have a cathedral it’s not a city) has plenty of middle class enclaves and some of it is quite surburban – unlike neighbouring Wolverhampton South East which could make a sound case for being the grimmest constituency in the UK
It also has a long history of being Tory – having elected right-wingers like Enoch Powell and Nick Budgen
Nuneaton is much less middle class, more industrial, and whilst the Tories held it in the 1980s, I too think this seat beyond them, even in the current circumstances
They really would be looking at a 100+ majority if they took this
I would characterise this seat as being pretty similar to Amber Valley and Erewash on the other side of the midlands, both in terms of marginality and demographic make-up.
All three of these seats look within reasonably easy grasp of the Tories in terms of numerical majority, yet local knowledge of the places and their electoral history leads many people to doubt that the Tories could win, as in Tim’s post above.
My personal view is that, most likely, the Tories will win all three of these seats by 1-2000 votes, although Labour still have a reasonably good chance of victory in all three if they fight the election on bread and butter economic issues to mobilise their considerable core working class vote base in each.
Tim, I think you will find it was made a city on January 31st 2001. Plenty of cities don’t have a cathedral…..Bimingham was the first in 1889 to be made a city despite not having a cathedral (the cathedral was only declared in 1905). Leeds and Sheffield also be came cities despite not having a cathedral (Leeds still doesn’t have an Anglican one). Wolverhampton is definitely a city….
I’m not sure Tories can win Erewash.
I don’t really see why this seat should be so difficult though – a 5% swing would do it, and the trends are in the Tory direction.
Labour might have a lot of abstainers to mobilise though.
There are masses of swing voters in seats like Erewash which is more relevent than the size of the Labour majority. Though boundary changes take out some of the most Tory areas of both that seat and Amber Valley I still think what is left is winnable and should see larger than averga eswings. The big poll of marginals which was done a while back showed the biggest swing anywhere occurring in the East Midlands – something which I had argued was likley on the regional ananlysis on this site. Nuneaton may as well be in the East Midlands (in many ways Coventry is more reminiscent of an East Midlands city than it is of Birmingham and the Black country) – the difference is that the Conservatives have already recovered strongly here since 1997 and in the unchanged seat it was barely safer for Labour than it had been in 1992
When you consider what it looks like (not very nice – certainly with regards to the urban parts which are pretty industrial) the Midlands has been quite good teritory for the Tories
Even in 97, when there was a massive national swing against the Tories, they did relatively better here – holding on to seats like Aldridge Brownhills, Bromsgrove, Boston & Skegness, seats that most commentators thoough they were more likely to lose than safer seats elsewhere (in London and the South in particular)
They still lost a lot of seats – but these were seats with very small numerical majorities which many commentators thought they’d lose in 1992
I still think winning here is unlikely – the Tories have a better chance in the neighbouring seat of Warwickshire North – but having said that, I still think the Tories will pick up plenty of seats in the Midlands in the next election on above average swings – Erewash, Amber Valley and Wolves South West included
Whether that’s enough to form a government is dependent on how well they do elsewhere – but I susopect it might be
It does indeed look (unless the national situtation changes in an unforeseen way) that the Midlands is going to be the best area for the Tories in terms of gains.
London might have 10 or 12 gains but the overall swing there is not likely to be as large as lazy journalists assume. There is a solid Labour vote there aswell, which stood out quite sharply in 1983 and 2008. (less so 1987 because of loony left councils but even some then – Lambeth, Camden, Hornsey & WG)
‘London might have 10 or 12 gains but the overall swing there is not likely to be as large as lazy journalists assume.’
I agree
There will still be a swing to the Tories but the problem for them in London is there are many seats which were relatively safely Tory in the 1980s (and before then), which you can’t ever see going back to them – Streatham, Mitcham & Morden, Hayes & Harlington, Walthamstow etc
Whether this is down to immigration or long-term shifting demographics is debatable, but this does seems to be unique to London (although there are some North Western seats which have swung similarly away from the Tories) and doesn’t seem to be a problem in the Midlands
Some of the outer London Boroughs produce large swings, but the Labour vote is stickier and more reliable across a lot of the capital.
Maybe London has quite a lot of demographics going in different directions, but there could be a bit more of a cultural loyalty to Labour. Still the Tories should achieve a lead there – a bit like in 2008.
‘Maybe London has quite a lot of demographics going in different directions, but there could be a bit more of a cultural loyalty to Labour. Still the Tories should achieve a lead there – a bit like in 2008.’
The flip side of that is that there are other parts of London which are becoming more Tory – in particular the lower middle class Essex areas in the ghastly North East, and places like Battersea, Tooting, Fulham and Hammersmith, which used to be more working class and more reliably Labour
Also I don’t know how much one can read into the inevitable Tory recovery in South West London, and some of the seats they will win (Richmond Park, Sutton & Cheam) should never have been lost in the first place
Patchy in south west outer London I think.
I think Labour could hang onto a number of seats in North West and south London.
The North East isn’t all ghastly – the Redbridge area is quite pleasant and varied, but I don’t like Havering despite the Tory successes.
The other factor to consider is how much of a personal vote Bill Olner has, and how much work is being done by the parties on the ground.
Jayne Innes is a relatively young and enthusiastic campaigner who has been in place for quite some time, if she is able to motivate her workers then Nuneaton’s Labour support might be given much more encourgament than in recent elections.
I also think that Labour will be able to encourage some voters who have abstained in recent elections to vote this time because of the closeness of the election.
if any of these factors work in Labour’s favour combined with the expected electoral recovery, Jayne could well be the next MP for Nuneaton.
Any view from anyone on the ground how things are looking locally?
‘the expected electoral recovery’
Expected by me, anyway! (before you ask)
To be honest, now that the BNP have broken through, labour and other parties are beginning to suffer. To be honest, the fact that the local council leader has stood in as the new conservative candidate makes labour’s chance even grimmer, and after reasonable success as a council locally very few people see a genuine reason not to vote for the conservatives and the BNP.
BNP picked up 31% in Nuneaton Camp Hill. They’re polling over 10% in most of the Warwickshire county council seats they have contested although those are obviously their strongest areas.
Most of the Labour county councillors now actually come from the Nuneaton area. The Conservatives have however made a break through in the Arbury area, partially due to the popularity of the new Mayor Tom Wilson. Overall, a very bad night for Labour in Warwickshire, but not as bad as in other areas. Plus Camphill was kept under Labour control, a pleasant surprise for the Labour group.
Actually, most of the Labour County Councillors come from the North Warwickshire constituency, the only constituency in Warwickshire where on county results they are the first placed party. When all the County wards in Nuneaton are totalled up the BNP get 12.8%.
Result of yesterday’s by-election for Arbury and Stockingford:
Rachel Field Liberal Democrat 118
Martyn Findley BNP 449
Steven John Gee Socialist Alternative 43
Barry Longden Labour 1331 (Elected)
Tom Wilson Conservative 1079
Michael Wright Green 170
Lab gain from Con.
This entry is seriously out of date. Simon Rouse stepped down as Conservative PPC for Nuneaton in summer 2008. The new Conservative PPC is Marcus Jones.
By-election due prob. 10 Dec. Quote from Nuneaton and Bedworth Council web site:-
“Ongoing work commitments have meant that Councillor Darren Hayward has had to resign as a Councillor for Camp Hill Ward in Nuneaton. ”
results from 2008:-
Camp Hill
Bradley, Peter Aneurin Socialist Alternative 88
Haywood, Darren John British National Party 675
Margrave, Samuel John Labour 562
Wilson, Kristofer David Conservative 541
Labour held the Camp Hill seat, which has identical boundaries, in the Warwickshire county council elections in June. I expect they would most likely gain this seat, though the Conservatives cannot be entirely ruled out especially if they can pick up some of the soft BNP vote themselves as they have managed to do in several areas in the Midlands.
2009:
Lab 505 33.2%
BNP 470 30.9%
Con 401 26.3%
Grn 147 9.7%
Pete has proved to be right. The result :
Labour 670 BNP 478 C 275
The BNP vote remains far too high for my liking but it is quite a good result for Labour, a clear improvement on the election earlier this year and not all that great for the Tories. The Tories though still at this stage remain favourites to take the Parliamentary seat though it was one of 3 good Labour results in key marginals on Thursday; other results also tended to see swings to Labour, in some cases substantial.
sorry make that 4 – I forgot Weymouth (South Dorset). The other 3 were Queens Park (Westminster North), St Helens (Hastings & Rye) and this one.
I note that the boundary changes make this a little less marginal for Labour.
I would assume BNP would stand here and should save its deposit.
This looks close to me but I would at this stage take the Tories with a three figure majority.
I see that the Tory who lost the seat in 2009 and at the by-election is a 21 year old student with a blog, Kris D Wilson. He looks interesting, that’s all I’ll say.
Martyn Findley standing here for the BNP
Cons Gain= 1,000 maj
CON 1800
Lab Hold
Maj 100
Well so far the only people making the running in Nuneaton, are the Tories. I certainly know all about Marcus Jones, but I’ve yet to hear from any other candidate, or see any sign of them. I’ve no idea what the Lib Dem candidate even looks like !!!
Difficult to know how the result will go, but despite the fact we are a marginal constituency, there doesn’t seem to be a great deal of attention being paid to us.
On balance, I think the Tories might take it, if only by virtue of their superior publicity. The interesting thing is that there is a clear geographical split. If Nuneaton were two constituencies, Nuneaton East & Nuneaton West, the East would be overwhelmingly Tory, and the West, comfortably Labour.
Con maj 1,250
Would be surprised if Lab votes don’t go off to the BNP as they did at the Council Elections.Should lead to a comfortable Tory maj on 6th May.Strong Tory wards will continue to see High Turnout and High Tory Votes.
CON HOLD. but Labour won’t be far away. could yet go the other way
Jayne Innes has now lost two different Labour-held seats in two elections. How many other candidates can claim this?
That’s quite an impressive record. Any suggestion where she should stand next?
“Jayne Innes has now lost two different Labour-held seats in two elections. How many other candidates can claim this?”
Sue Hayman
2010 Halesowen and Rowley Regis
2005 Preseli Pembrokeshire
I’m not sure we can attribute their losses to them personally though – can we?
No
I wasn’t implying that. It’s just poor fortune.
To be fair Sue Hayman was contesting two very marginal seats – I wonder whether it will be third time lucky
Looks like the Con share of the vote is a shade above 1992 here,
but I suspect the absolute vote is not.
Could be quite a difficult seat to defend though.
Election count, Nuneaton, May 2010,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNlw0y6KztM
My link above, has now appeared – thanks.
I would guess that had the boundaries stayed the same in 2010, the result would be about
Con 21,800
Lab 18,200
LD 7,400
Meaning the Tories would still have polled fewer votes than in 1987 and 1992 – but about the same share as 1992.
Labour polled 27,157 votes in 1992. Quite impressive.
I thought Bill Olner (featured on the film link above) must have had a personal vote which got lost this time,
but then Labour didn’t do too well in 2001/5.
I wonder whether that was a genuine Tory swing or a slump in Labour turnout.
But the Tories did overcome a very adverse boundary change this time – which they notably failed to do in Bolton W for example.
I don’t think Nuneaton is a very affluent town. Wages are about £4,000 below the average, the BNP has some strength, and there are left over problems from mines being shut.
BNP Cllr here defects to Ind.