Nuneaton
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 18219 (46%)
Conservative: 14376 (36.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 5260 (13.3%)
Other: 1757 (4.4%)
Majority: 3843 (9.7%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 17665 (39%)
Labour: 19945 (44%)
Liberal Democrat: 5884 (13%)
UKIP: 1786 (3.9%)
Majority: 2280 (5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 15042 (34.7%)
Labour: 22577 (52.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 4820 (11.1%)
UKIP: 873 (2%)
Majority: 7535 (17.4%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 16540 (30.9%)
Labour: 30080 (56.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 4732 (8.8%)
Referendum: 1533 (2.9%)
Other: 628 (1.2%)
Majority: 13540 (25.3%)
Boundary changes
Current MP: Bill Olner (Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates:
Jayne Innes (Labour) born 1970. Educated at the University of Warwick. Former Aide to Geoffrey Robinson MP. Now a consultant working mainly with charities. Director of an inward investment and job creation body. Contested Birmingham Yardley 2005
Simon Rouse (Conservative) Educated at Higham Lane Secondary, King Edward VI College and the University of Exeter. Banker. Tower Hamlets councillor and group leader since 2004.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 87593
Male: 49.1%
Female: 50.9%
Under 18: 24.4%
Over 60: 18.4%
Born outside UK: 4%
White: 95.3%
Black: 0.3%
Asian: 3.5%
Mixed: 0.6%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 77%
Hindu: 0.6%
Muslim: 2.1%
Sikh: 0.8%
Full time students: 2%
Graduates 16-74: 13.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 34.3%
Owner-Occupied: 76.3%
Social Housing: 15.6% (Council: 13.1%, Housing Ass.: 2.4%)
Privately Rented: 5.6%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 6.7%
It does indeed look (unless the national situtation changes in an unforeseen way) that the Midlands is going to be the best area for the Tories in terms of gains.
London might have 10 or 12 gains but the overall swing there is not likely to be as large as lazy journalists assume. There is a solid Labour vote there aswell, which stood out quite sharply in 1983 and 2008. (less so 1987 because of loony left councils but even some then - Lambeth, Camden, Hornsey & WG)
‘London might have 10 or 12 gains but the overall swing there is not likely to be as large as lazy journalists assume.’
I agree
There will still be a swing to the Tories but the problem for them in London is there are many seats which were relatively safely Tory in the 1980s (and before then), which you can’t ever see going back to them - Streatham, Mitcham & Morden, Hayes & Harlington, Walthamstow etc
Whether this is down to immigration or long-term shifting demographics is debatable, but this does seems to be unique to London (although there are some North Western seats which have swung similarly away from the Tories) and doesn’t seem to be a problem in the Midlands
Some of the outer London Boroughs produce large swings, but the Labour vote is stickier and more reliable across a lot of the capital.
Maybe London has quite a lot of demographics going in different directions, but there could be a bit more of a cultural loyalty to Labour. Still the Tories should achieve a lead there - a bit like in 2008.
‘Maybe London has quite a lot of demographics going in different directions, but there could be a bit more of a cultural loyalty to Labour. Still the Tories should achieve a lead there - a bit like in 2008.’
The flip side of that is that there are other parts of London which are becoming more Tory - in particular the lower middle class Essex areas in the ghastly North East, and places like Battersea, Tooting, Fulham and Hammersmith, which used to be more working class and more reliably Labour
Also I don’t know how much one can read into the inevitable Tory recovery in South West London, and some of the seats they will win (Richmond Park, Sutton & Cheam) should never have been lost in the first place
Patchy in south west outer London I think.
I think Labour could hang onto a number of seats in North West and south London.
The North East isn’t all ghastly - the Redbridge area is quite pleasant and varied, but I don’t like Havering despite the Tory successes.
The other factor to consider is how much of a personal vote Bill Olner has, and how much work is being done by the parties on the ground.
Jayne Innes is a relatively young and enthusiastic campaigner who has been in place for quite some time, if she is able to motivate her workers then Nuneaton’s Labour support might be given much more encourgament than in recent elections.
I also think that Labour will be able to encourage some voters who have abstained in recent elections to vote this time because of the closeness of the election.
if any of these factors work in Labour’s favour combined with the expected electoral recovery, Jayne could well be the next MP for Nuneaton.
Any view from anyone on the ground how things are looking locally?
‘the expected electoral recovery’
Expected by me, anyway! (before you ask)
To be honest, now that the BNP have broken through, labour and other parties are beginning to suffer. To be honest, the fact that the local council leader has stood in as the new conservative candidate makes labour’s chance even grimmer, and after reasonable success as a council locally very few people see a genuine reason not to vote for the conservatives and the BNP.
BNP picked up 31% in Nuneaton Camp Hill. They’re polling over 10% in most of the Warwickshire county council seats they have contested although those are obviously their strongest areas.
Most of the Labour county councillors now actually come from the Nuneaton area. The Conservatives have however made a break through in the Arbury area, partially due to the popularity of the new Mayor Tom Wilson. Overall, a very bad night for Labour in Warwickshire, but not as bad as in other areas. Plus Camphill was kept under Labour control, a pleasant surprise for the Labour group.