Comments on: Nottingham South

By: Harry Porter

Harry Porter — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 15:17:45 +0000

Commons exchange, 17 Feb 1992:

Martin Brandon-Bravo: ‘There are some honourable men among our Labour councillors, although not the Labour county councillor who is the prospective parliamentary candidate for my constituency [Simpson] – ‘
David Clelland: ‘We didn’t think you’d like him!’
M B-B: ‘I don’t!’

By: Andy Stidwill

Andy Stidwill — Sun, 31 Jan 2010 21:40:45 +0000

Amber Valley swung all over the place in the 80s and 90s:

1979 (notional): Lab maj – 6,181
1983: C maj – 3,318
1987: C maj – 9,500
1992: C maj – 712
1997: Lab maj – 11,613

Margaret Beckett’s majority in 1983 was cut from a notional 3,949 in 1979 to 421.

By: Peter Crerar

Peter Crerar — Sun, 31 Jan 2010 21:22:23 +0000

“One left-wing Labour MP (not from the east midlands) predicted in the commons before the 1992 election that ‘we’ll win lots of seats in the east midlands, including Sherwood’, however they only gained Nottingham East and Nottingham South, in addition to Sherwood.”

I recall Donald Dewar claiming at the Kincardine & Deeside by election in the run up to the 1992 general election that Labour would gain “..oh a number of seats from the Scottish Conservatives..” He particuarly expected easy Labour gains in Ayr and Stirling and for Malcolm Rifkind to be run close in Edinburgh Pentlands. On the BBC 1992 election he was absolutly astounded when Michael Forsyth held on to Stirling with an increased majority.

By: Peter Crerar

Peter Crerar — Sun, 31 Jan 2010 21:12:56 +0000

Sisters and brothers sit in the commons though.

By: Barnaby JL Marder

Barnaby JL Marder — Sun, 31 Jan 2010 19:42:33 +0000

Having held Derby South narrowly in 1983, Margaret Beckett then enjoyed a positive swing in every successive election including 2001, until the sequence finally ended in 2005.

Mother & son sitting together in the House of Commons is quite unusual, though it was of course emulated by Ann & John Cryer between 1997 and 2005.

By: Harry Porter

Harry Porter — Sun, 31 Jan 2010 19:15:02 +0000

‘Amber Valley was famously a surprise Conservative gain in 1983.

They came very close to winning Derby South as well.’

Phillip Oppenheim joined his mum Sally, MP for Gloucester from 1970 to her retirement in 1987.

Had Derby South been a Tory gain, then Margaret Beckett’s career might have turned out somewhat differently, unless of course she decided to seek a safer seat – maybe she may have even decided to fight her old seat of Lincoln in 1987, unless of course the boundaries had been changed since her time there and made it safer for Sir Kenneth Carlisle

By: Barnaby JL Marder

Barnaby JL Marder — Sun, 31 Jan 2010 12:34:36 +0000

Yes, and South Derbyshire at the time was seen largely as the old Belper constituency, but again not the town itself.

By: Peter Crerar

Peter Crerar — Sun, 31 Jan 2010 11:38:33 +0000

Amber Valley was largely the old Ilkeston constituency, though obviously not the town itself.

By: Richard

Richard — Sun, 31 Jan 2010 11:35:04 +0000

Amber Valley was famously a surprise Conservative gain in 1983.

They came very close to winning Derby South as well.

By: Peter Crerar

Peter Crerar — Sun, 31 Jan 2010 08:21:36 +0000

The 1979 majorities were -

Derbyshire South East Con maj 7387
Ilkeston Lab maj 8600

Erewash had a 1979 notional Con maj of 2607 (44610 from SE and 25896 from Ilkeston).

An uplift from a notional 2607 to over 10000 is very substantial (a swing of over 8% from Lab to Con)