Nottingham South
2010 Results:
Conservative: 13437 (32.94%)
Labour: 15209 (37.29%)
Liberal Democrat: 9406 (23.06%)
BNP: 1140 (2.79%)
UKIP: 967 (2.37%)
Green: 630 (1.54%)
Majority: 1772 (4.35%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 16759 (46.1%)
Conservative: 9525 (26.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 8625 (23.7%)
Other: 1437 (4%)
Majority: 7234 (19.9%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 9020 (25.9%)
Labour: 16506 (47.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 7961 (22.9%)
UKIP: 1353 (3.9%)
Majority: 7486 (21.5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 9960 (27.2%)
Labour: 19949 (54.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 6064 (16.6%)
UKIP: 632 (1.7%)
Majority: 9989 (27.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 13461 (27.7%)
Labour: 26825 (55.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 6265 (12.9%)
Referendum: 1523 (3.1%)
Other: 446 (0.9%)
Majority: 13364 (27.5%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Lilian Greenwood (Labour) UNISON official.
Rowena Holland (Conservative) Lilian Greenwood (Labour) UNISON official.
Tony Sutton (Liberal Democrat) born 1948. Educated at Reading University. Food technologist. Nottingham councillor since 2005. Contested Nottingham South 2005. 
Matthew Butcher (Green) Born London. Educated at Nottingham University.
Ken Browne (UKIP) Contested Nottingham South 2005.Anthony Woodward (BNP)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 92463
Male: 50.5%
Female: 49.5%
Under 18: 18.3%
Over 60: 19.5%
Born outside UK: 12.2%
White: 83.7%
Black: 3.7%
Asian: 8.3%
Mixed: 2.6%
Other: 1.7%
Christian: 58.9%
Hindu: 1.4%
Muslim: 5.4%
Sikh: 1.9%
Full time students: 23.4%
Graduates 16-74: 20.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 27.8%
Owner-Occupied: 53.9%
Social Housing: 27.5% (Council: 22%, Housing Ass.: 5.5%)
Privately Rented: 15.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 7.2%
LAB HOLD
A better than expected result for the Tories, cutting Labour’s majority to just 1,772 and also being well ahead of the LDs in third place (by 10%).
Interesting because the 7.4% swing they got here would have enabled them to gain Gedling which they failed to do.
Certainly the contrast between the Tory result here and those in nearby Broxtowe and Gedling seems most odd. The only obvious explanation is that in the latter two constituencies an incumbent Labour MP was seeking re-election, while in this seat there was no incumbent standing.
However there was also a big swing to the Tories in Nottingham North where Graham Allen was seeking re-election (albeit that the Tories were starting from a low base there).
The strange thing about the result here where the votes for the Tories were coming from. It seems like the working class vote in Clifton South may have well come out in support of Dr. Holland while there were still some middle class voters in places like Clifton North and even Wollaton West who weren’t sure enough about the Tories to give them their vote.
If the Conservative campaign had been able to target Clifton South better during the campaign then the use of a GOTV campaign on polling day in that ward may well have seen the Tories win it with a tiny majority or the Labour majority cut further.
It’s a shame because Rowena Holland really was an exceptional candidate compared to some of the other candidates who won seats – including other Conservatives. Hopefully she’ll be able to get in here or elsewhere next time. Still, an exceptional result – turning it from a safe Labour seat into the Tories’ 27th target nationally and Labour’s 5th most marginal seat in the East Midlands.
What on earth happened here? I thought Labour would hold this by about a 4000 majority!!!! I never imagined this seat to be a Labour / Tory marginal. There are many deprived areas in this seat such as Radford and Lenton. Where did the Tory votes ome from? Does anyone think they might take this seat at the 2015 Election?
Well again, now that Lilian Greenwood has made it over the first hurdle, she will hope to establish herself & create an incumbency effect.
This was a better Tory result than I expected.
Up nearly 4,000.
Although, their share is up less than the national average against 1997, because it declined at every election from 1983 to 2005.
I wonder if the job and service cuts of Labour controlled Nottingham council had some affect on the result here and in Nottingham North.
Nick Palmer siad that Labour did better in middle class parts of greater Nottingham than in working class areas.
This was one of the most encouraging results for the Tories. The Labour majority is now smaller than in Gedling in numerical terms, (though not percentage).
I expected this kind of majority in the event of a Con national majority. So, yes, considering it was a hung parliament overall, I would have thought the Lab maj being a bit larger here.
‘RADFORD AND PARK – an extreme example of a socially-divided ward, where Labour now poll around 50% and the Conservatives 33%; it is split into three very distinct areas. First is The Park, which effectively is a gated-community, and home to some of the wealthiest people in Greater Nottingham; in 2007, the vast majority of votes here were Conservative, but this area comprises less than a sixth of the total ward’s population. Second is Radford is one of the most deprived areas of Nottingham and has a reputation for gun-crime; generally considered a no-gone zone for most people. Third is the “Lenton Triangle” which is mostly students and has much in common with Dunkirk and Lenton Ward.’
This ward also includes Maid Marian Way, former site of ‘The Tales of Robin Hood’ tourist attraction, as well as Nottingham Castle
Has this ward been in this seat since 1983? I believe before 1997 it was known simply as ‘Park’, and may not have covered the same territory it does today.
It will be interesting to see how the proposed 10% MP cut would affect Nottingham. Would we see one “Central” and a few “… and Nottingham …” seats (e.g. some of this becoming Rushcliffe and Nottingham South) or maybe a north/south or east/west split with the remaining territory joining in with one of the “shire” seats
i think the 3 nottingham seats have got to expand outwards because nottingham is bigger than its boundary which i feel is out of date. if u look the at wards in gedling,broxtowe,rushcliffe there is clear divide between “urban”(i class urban as wards without open farmland and i know there are city farms) wards that are “joined” to nottingham and those that are not.
What were the 1983-97 wards of this constituency?
Abbey, Bridge, Clifton East, Clifton West, Lenton, Park, Robin Hood, Wilford and Wollaton.
Dunkirk was also included from 1983 – 2005
It was a Tory area even until the early part of the 21st Century and has now become better for Labour as detached houses become student HMO’s.
The two seat Wilford is essentially now the three seat Clifton North (together with electors from Clifton East and Clifton West that did not form Clifton South).
The new quota’s could push Nottingham South back to the pre-1974 boundaries -
Nottingham North East -
Basford
Bestwood
Berridge
Bulwell
Bulwell Forest
Mapperley
St Ann’s
Sherwood
Nottingham West -
Arboretum
Aspley
Bilborough
Dunkirk & Lenton
Leen Valley
Radford & Park
Wollaton East & Lenton Abbey
Wollaton West
Nottingham South & West Bridgeford -
Bridge
Clifton North
Clifton South
Dales
(plus West Bridgeford wards in Rushcliffe)
Nottingham South & West Bridgeford could also be called “Trent Bridge” like Newcastle Central & Gateshead North being called “Tyne Bridge”.
Pete,
I assume that “Nottingham South & West Bridgeford” would be Tory in 2010 but the non-inclusion of Wollaton and Lenton Abbey would not make it dramatically so.
Yes I imagine it would have been quite narrowly a Tory gain this year. I think that seat as you described it would be quite undersized though as would Nottingham West while NE would be oversized. Possibly you would have to add at least Dunkir/Lenton and Wollaton East anyway to get it up to quota (with obvious knock on effects for your other seats)
Rowena Holland sounded like a good candidate – perhaps she’ll have another go, for the Tories.
But it depends on the Lab/Con political situation in 2015, or
if the LD vote holds at that level.
That seems unlikely (although we don’t yet know) – so it could transfer more to Labour.
Also, boundaries of course to be decided.
As Pete pointed out elsewhere, it’ll be interesting to see the 2011 council elections in this area, not so much for overall swing, but the relative strength of the parties in different areas of the seat, as we could have contrary political trends here.
my guess at this seats wards in 2015 is its currents wards + bilborough ward
giving it around 77000 voters
In Martin Brandon-Bravo’s maiden speech in 1983, he said that two of the then nine wards of this constituency were inner city wards – I presume these were Bridge and Park. Nottingham city centre is today covered by the wards of Bridge, and Radford and Park.
Noticed that the Lib Dems have been totally wiped out in Nottingham City Council.
Looking at the Local Election results here, what does everyone think the result here will be in this very marginal parliamentary seat at the 2015 General Election?
Greater Nottingham used to be surprisingly Conservative compared with other major cities. In 1983, all 7 MPs for Greater Nottingham were Conservative – Nottingham North, Nottingham South, Nottingham East, Gedling, Broxtowe, Rushcliffe and Erewash. In 1987, the Conservatives won control of the City council; in fact, even before then the City used to have lots of safe Conservative seats, but now all but Wollaton West have fallen to Labour either in whole or in part. Whilst Broxtowe and Gedling used to be strongholds, Gedling is increasingly becoming like Nottingham East, and Broxtowe is increasingly dominated by public sector workers who vote Labour or LD.
In the City of Nottingham as a whole, the number of Conservative councillors has continued to fall from 11 in 2000, to 8 in 2003, to 7 in 2007 and now just 5.
There are now no Conservative councillors in the wards which make up Nottingham North and Nottingham East, and the nearest they came to winning was in Mapperley but they were still 600 votes behind. Labour are now 1,500 votes ahead in Dales, Sherwood and Bulwell Forest which have previously had Conservative councillors. In most wards comprising Nottingham East and Nottingham North, the Conservative vote fell and the Labour vote shot up.
The results in Nottingham South were not nearly as devastating for the Conservatives compared with the rest of the City. I have calculated the figures for the wards making up Nottingham South based on the average votes per ward. Whilst the Conservatives no longer came first, the number of Conservative votes has continued to increase numerically as seen below. Had there been a general election, they would probably have maintained their vote from the last general election.
2011 Nottingham South
Lab 12,576
Con 8,329
LD 4,058
2007 Nottingham South
Con 7,636
Lab 7,441
LD 5,130
2003 Nottingham South
Con 7,563
Lab 6,867
LD 5,156
However, given the surge in Labour votes in all parts of this constituency, I would only expect Nottingham South to become much safer for Labour. I was particularly surprised that Labour won both Leen Valley and Wollaton East & Lenton Abbey from the Liberal Democrats. In 2003, the Conservatives were the main challengers in both seats (although Labour came second in Leen Valley in 2007). But all this is academic given that there will be boundary changes at the next election.
Depends on the boundaries!
If Nottingham South returns to being a cross border seat (as it was prior to 1974 when it included West Bridgeford, it could be Tory). It may not include West Bridgeford and Wollaton (latter may go into Nottingham North).
A cross border re-creation of the pre-1974 Nottingham South may be renamed ‘Trent Bridge’.
What happened to Dunkirk? It is now a solid Labour ward and was Tory in the early 90′s. Is this ward boundary or demographic change?
Dalek, it’s a mixture of both boundary changes and demographic change.
Prior to the boundary changes which came into effect in 2003, Dunkirk was part of Abbey Ward which had been Conservative for years, although it did fall to Labour in 1995. Even in 2000 Abbey Ward returned 2 Conservative councillors.
Abbey Ward covered not only (1) Dunkirk, but also (2) the part of Lenton lying between the University campus and the railway line and (3) Wollaton Park Estate. Wollaton Park Estate was was one of the more Conservative areas and was moved into Wollaton East & Lenton Abbey, which was initially a Conservative/LD marginal, but was shockingly won by Labour this time round. Meanwhile, other parts of Lenton were added to the ward, and Dunkirk became even more studentised, with the homes of many former Conservative voters being sold and converted into student homes. Together with an increase in accommodation for NHS workers, this has led to the erosion of the Conservative votes in the ward. Turnout is in this ward is always low because very few students vote in local elections (although they came out in much greater numbers in last night’s general election).
Overall, the 2003 boundary changes were very unfavourable to the Conservatives. In 2000, the Conservatives won 11 seats on the council, which comprised entirely of much smaller 2-seat wards. The boundary changes meant that many wards which were previously winnable for the Conservative wards were swallowed up by surrounding Labour-voting areas – in particular, Mapperley, Sherwood, Dales and Radford and Park. All these wards are very diverse, with two completely different areas located side by side. Clifton North was the only ward where the Conservatives benefited as a result of the boundary changes – the solidly Conservative Wilford ward was expanded to cover parts of Labour-voting Clifton, leading to there being 3 Conservative councillors being elected. But even now, the ward is mixed with the Conservatives winning 2 seats and Labour 1.
Oh the Conservatives won 2 of the 3 seats in Clifton North? You would hardly think it from the way its displayed on the map here http://www.nottinghamcity.gov.uk/index.aspx?articleid=14442
Pete,
It’s probably displayed like that because amazingly on 5th May the Labour Party won the vote in Clifton North, one of their candidates, being a local resident topped the poll! Even in the Tories second safest ward in Nottingham Labour came top. It is such an amazing victory for Labour, they beat both opposition leaders, all the Lib Dems and came top of the poll in every single ward except Wollaton West! A stunning victory.
Nottingham South & West Bridgeford is the re-creation of the 1955 – 1974 Nottingham South.
It must be a bell weather marginal. Labour in 1997, 2001 and 2005 and Tory in 1992 and 2010.
I would call it Nottingham Trent Bridge.
Betokens retirement for Ken Clarke I think
At the 1983 declaration the successful Tory candidate Martin Brando-Bravo was wearing what looked like a tracksuit and trainers which was a rather surprising choice for the occasion.
Perhaps Martin Brandon-Bravo had come straight to the count from running up and down the streets for each last vote until almost 10pm,
despite his eventual 5-6,000 majority,
and he needed some clothes suitable.
Quite sensible in a way.
Although I think sometime candidates, particularly well known ones, or ones uncertain of the result, deliberately arrive later.
The Labour candidate in 1983 was Ken Coates.
A blast from the past – I recall he was a Labour MEP later
but I think de-selected when he made critical remarks about New Labour.
An interesting seat,
perhaps the council estates and the
university
offer different long term political trends.
A novel idea from Martin Brandon-Bravo there on how to attract Labour supporters, lol.