Nottingham South
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 16759 (46.1%)
Conservative: 9525 (26.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 8625 (23.7%)
Other: 1437 (4%)
Majority: 7234 (19.9%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 9020 (25.9%)
Labour: 16506 (47.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 7961 (22.9%)
UKIP: 1353 (3.9%)
Majority: 7486 (21.5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 9960 (27.2%)
Labour: 19949 (54.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 6064 (16.6%)
UKIP: 632 (1.7%)
Majority: 9989 (27.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 13461 (27.7%)
Labour: 26825 (55.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 6265 (12.9%)
Referendum: 1523 (3.1%)
Other: 446 (0.9%)
Majority: 13364 (27.5%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Alan Simpson(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Rowena Holland (Conservative) Lilian Greenwood (Labour) UNISON official.Tony Sutton (Liberal Democrat) born 1948. Educated at Reading University. Food technologist. Nottingham councillor since 2005. Contested Nottingham South 2005. Ken Browne (UKIP) Contested Nottingham South 2005.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 92463
Male: 50.5%
Female: 49.5%
Under 18: 18.3%
Over 60: 19.5%
Born outside UK: 12.2%
White: 83.7%
Black: 3.7%
Asian: 8.3%
Mixed: 2.6%
Other: 1.7%
Christian: 58.9%
Hindu: 1.4%
Muslim: 5.4%
Sikh: 1.9%
Full time students: 23.4%
Graduates 16-74: 20.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 27.8%
Owner-Occupied: 53.9%
Social Housing: 27.5% (Council: 22%, Housing Ass.: 5.5%)
Privately Rented: 15.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 7.2%
‘Martin Brandon-Bravo was possibly a 1992 Tory victim who would have held on if Major had cashed in in 1991′
As, probably, would Michael Knowles and Andy Stewart. One left-wing Labour MP (not from the east midlands) predicted in the commons before the 1992 election that ‘we’ll win lots of seats in the east midlands, including Sherwood’, however they only gained Nottingham East and Nottingham South, in addition to Sherwood.
‘Wasn’t Martin Brandon-Bravo an MEP also?’
I believe he tried to be selected for an east midlands euro-seat for the 1994 elections (two years after his defeat by Simpson), but failed.
Saying the Tories might have held Nottingham East in 1991 doesn’t really follow since Knowles’ majority was so much smaller than Stewart and Brandon-Bravo.
The seat Labour came closest to winning in the East Midlands in 1992 was Amber Valley where they cut Phillip Oppenheim’s majority from 9,500 to 712. Edwina Curry held on quite comfortably in Derbyshire South, Angela Knight in Erewash, and Greg Knight in Derby North.
‘The seat Labour came closest to winning in the East Midlands in 1992 was Amber Valley where they cut Phillip Oppenheim’s majority from 9,500 to 712′
With a majority that size, perhaps Oppenheim’s defeat five years later was all but assured
‘Edwina Curry held on quite comfortably in Derbyshire South’
Not so five years later!! Greg Knight is now of course MP for Yorkshire East
Interesting that, although in 1992 Erewash had the largest Tory majority of the seats in Derbyshire subsequently gained by Labour in 1997, now it is the one with the highest Labour majority. Possibly Kilroy-Silk’s intervention in 2005 helped Liz Blackman with this, however.
Labour did relatively well in Erewash in 2005.
The Tory vote held a shade better in 1997, despite Labour taking the seat by 9,135 (partly Lib Dem defections).
But the Tory results have been poor since 1997, apart from in local elections.
The Tory majority was over 10,000 in Erewash in 1983 and Labour almost came third, although that was partly down to an independent Labour candidate who got about 4,000 votes IIRC. Must have been a bit of a shock to Labour supporters in Ilkeston since they held that seat so easily in 1979. Of course Long Eaton came into the seat in 1983 but it was still a big turnaround.
The 1979 majorities were -
Derbyshire South East Con maj 7387
Ilkeston Lab maj 8600
Erewash had a 1979 notional Con maj of 2607 (44610 from SE and 25896 from Ilkeston).
An uplift from a notional 2607 to over 10000 is very substantial (a swing of over 8% from Lab to Con)
Amber Valley was famously a surprise Conservative gain in 1983.
They came very close to winning Derby South as well.
Amber Valley was largely the old Ilkeston constituency, though obviously not the town itself.
Yes, and South Derbyshire at the time was seen largely as the old Belper constituency, but again not the town itself.
‘Amber Valley was famously a surprise Conservative gain in 1983.
They came very close to winning Derby South as well.’
Phillip Oppenheim joined his mum Sally, MP for Gloucester from 1970 to her retirement in 1987.
Had Derby South been a Tory gain, then Margaret Beckett’s career might have turned out somewhat differently, unless of course she decided to seek a safer seat – maybe she may have even decided to fight her old seat of Lincoln in 1987, unless of course the boundaries had been changed since her time there and made it safer for Sir Kenneth Carlisle
Having held Derby South narrowly in 1983, Margaret Beckett then enjoyed a positive swing in every successive election including 2001, until the sequence finally ended in 2005.
Mother & son sitting together in the House of Commons is quite unusual, though it was of course emulated by Ann & John Cryer between 1997 and 2005.
Sisters and brothers sit in the commons though.
“One left-wing Labour MP (not from the east midlands) predicted in the commons before the 1992 election that ‘we’ll win lots of seats in the east midlands, including Sherwood’, however they only gained Nottingham East and Nottingham South, in addition to Sherwood.”
I recall Donald Dewar claiming at the Kincardine & Deeside by election in the run up to the 1992 general election that Labour would gain “..oh a number of seats from the Scottish Conservatives..” He particuarly expected easy Labour gains in Ayr and Stirling and for Malcolm Rifkind to be run close in Edinburgh Pentlands. On the BBC 1992 election he was absolutly astounded when Michael Forsyth held on to Stirling with an increased majority.
Amber Valley swung all over the place in the 80s and 90s:
1979 (notional): Lab maj – 6,181
1983: C maj – 3,318
1987: C maj – 9,500
1992: C maj – 712
1997: Lab maj – 11,613
Margaret Beckett’s majority in 1983 was cut from a notional 3,949 in 1979 to 421.