Norwich South
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 15374 (37.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 12246 (30.1%)
Conservative: 8757 (21.5%)
Other: 4284 (10.5%)
Majority: 3129 (7.7%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 9567 (22.7%)
Labour: 15904 (37.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 12251 (29%)
Green: 3101 (7.4%)
UKIP: 597 (1.4%)
Other: 770 (1.8%)
Majority: 3653 (8.7%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 10551 (24.8%)
Labour: 19367 (45.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 9640 (22.6%)
UKIP: 473 (1.1%)
Green: 1434 (3.4%)
Other: 1127 (2.6%)
Majority: 8816 (20.7%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 12028 (23.7%)
Labour: 26267 (51.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 9457 (18.6%)
Referendum: 1464 (2.9%)
Other: 1585 (3.1%)
Majority: 14239 (28%)
Boundary changes: loses Cringleford to Norfolk South and gains a small area around the fringes of New Costessey. To the north it gains part of Thorpe Hamlet and loses part of Crome to Norwich North.
Profile: Norwich South covers the majority of the wards in Norwich City Council, including the town centre, along with the Norwich suburb of New Costessey which falls under South Norfolk District Council. The seat inclues the “Golden Triangle”, the south-western part of Norwich near the University of East Anglia consisting of victorian properties, with a large proportion of students and young professionals. Norwich Union is the largest local employer.
The seat has normally been Labour`s strongest seat in Norfolk due to the relatively high proportion of council tenants on estates like Lakenham, Bowthorpe and West Earlham. More recently the seat has swung towards the Liberal Democrats and the Greens, who currently (Nov 2006) hold nine seats on Norwich City Council.
Outgoing MP: Charles Clarke(Labour) born 1950, London, the son of a Civil Service Permanent Secretary. Educated at Highgate School and Cambridge. President of the NUS from 1975-1977. Former Hackney Councillor. A senior advisor and eventually chief of staff to Neil Kinnock as Leader of the Labour party, after 1992 Clarke worked in public affairs consultancy before being elected as an MP in 1997. He was rapidly promoted, becoming a junior minister after less than a year as an MP and entering the cabinet as Party Chairman in 2001. He became education Secretary in 2002 and suceeded David Blunkett as Home Secretary in 2004. In April 2006 he offered his resignation over the release of over 1,000 foriegn prisoners who should have been considered for deportation. His resignation was refused, but he was sacked following Labour`s local government election losses in May 2006. He has subsequently been critical of Gordon Brown`s suitability to be Prime Minister (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Antony Little (Conservative) History teacher. Norwich councillor. Contested Norwich South 2005.Charles Clarke(Labour) born 1950, London, the son of a Civil Service Permanent Secretary. Educated at Highgate School and Cambridge. President of the NUS from 1975-1977. Former Hackney Councillor. A senior advisor and eventually chief of staff to Neil Kinnock as Leader of the Labour party, after 1992 Clarke worked in public affairs consultancy before being elected as an MP in 1997. He was rapidly promoted, becoming a junior minister after less than a year as an MP and entering the cabinet as Party Chairman in 2001. He became education Secretary in 2002 and suceeded David Blunkett as Home Secretary in 2004. In April 2006 he offered his resignation over the release of over 1,000 foriegn prisoners who should have been considered for deportation. His resignation was refused, but he was sacked following Labour`s local government election losses in May 2006. He has subsequently been critical of Gordon Brown`s suitability to be Prime Minister (more information at They work for you)
Simon Wright (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Imperial College London. Former teacher, currently campaigns and communications officer for Norman Lamb MP, the MP for Norfolk North. North Norfolk District Councillor.
Adrian Ramsay (Green) Norwich councillor since 2003.
Vandra Ahlstrom (UKIP) Contested Norwich South 2005
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 88174
Male: 48%
Female: 52%
Under 18: 18.5%
Over 60: 22.1%
Born outside UK: 7%
White: 96.4%
Black: 0.4%
Asian: 0.9%
Mixed: 1.1%
Other: 1.1%
Christian: 60.7%
Muslim: 0.8%
Full time students: 11.6%
Graduates 16-74: 23.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 27.4%
Owner-Occupied: 50.6%
Social Housing: 34.1% (Council: 27.9%, Housing Ass.: 6.2%)
Privately Rented: 12.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8%
I think the swing against Charles Clarke may be lower than the average. I am not sure that he is carrying much of a personal vote in the traditional sense, but he has the advantage of being high-profile, a former Home Secretary (who resigned on a matter of principle) and an opponent of the Prime Minister. In places like Norwich it is the latter who is especially unpopular whereas many of the 1997 Conservative vintage were unpopular in their own right.
Charles Clarke, as pointed out above, should benefit from a split opposition with the main challenger vulnerable to losing votes to different other parties. I imagine him also to be a vigorous campaigner who will not be dragged around the country as a Member of the Government and will be able to concentrate on holding is own seat. Labour Hold – 750
I don’t buy this argument that Charles Clarke will be able to keep more of his vote than the typical Labour MP. Norwich South includes a significant number of voters from the University of East Anglia (which is within the constituency, along with the student areas off the Unthank Road), and competent opponents will point out his record as Education Secretary. I would also imagine they would point out his record as Home Secretary (and the circumstances of his leaving the cabinet hardly play well for CC).
While I think voters are sometimes prepared to back a maverick MP when otherwise they would have voted against the party, Clarke is less of a maverick than a has-been with baggage that will count against him. His high profile may gain him some votes, but there is no way that will be as many as it did five years ago. I predict the swing against Labour will actually be slightly _higher_ here than the national swing. I also don’t see it being a four-way marginal. The LibDems are in retreat here (and having dropped policies that attracted the student vote in 2005 will exacerbate that), and will finish a clear fourth, somewhere around 20%. This looks like a Lab/Tory/Green three way marginal to me, and I predict that this constituency will be won by a candidate getting between 27 and 30%.
Ben Foley – will many UEA students vote here if its in May?
Well, it depends when in May. If at the start of May, we can get a clue from the last elections at the start of May, in 2008 when turnout in University ward was 33.2%, while overall for the council it was 35.5%, which seems pretty similar to me. But when you start talking about the areas off the Unthank Road, Town Close was 38.5%, Nelson 39.7% and Eaton 57.8%.
Looking at the UEA semester dates, Thu 6th May will be the 3rd day of the exam period. Virtually no students will have finished their exams and ******ed off by then. If GB hangs on until the end of May, or later, perhaps June, then some students will have gone elsewhere, but the assessment period doesn’t officially end until 11th June 2010, so the students aren’t really free to go elsewhere before then. If we are looking at early June, then the local elections last year give a clue. Norfolk overall turnout 38.6%. University Divsion 34.0% – a bit on the low side, but Nelson 45.5%, Town Close 44.5% and Eaton 57.2% turnouts.
It looks from his latest leaflet that Adrian Ramsey is targetting the LibDem vote.
Many thanks for your comments Christian and Kieran.
Perhaps I have too soft on my Clarke performance. However I feel that even if he does as bad as the average Labour incumbent, he should still win due to a divided opposition of Tories LibDems and possibly Greens.
32% should be enough to hold/win this seat.
and Wolf, it could be argued Simon Wright and the Lib Dems are targetting the Green vote? I live in Nelson ward and the latest leaflets from him seem to be targetting those, like me, who have been voting Green in minor (locals/european) elections since 2005.
Lab 32
Lib 28
Con 25
Green 10
Others 5
OK, the Greens probably wont do as badly as I hope – but they will still come 4th. Labour may slip as low as 30% but will still win. If the Greens take a lot of Libdem votes the Tories will come second, but probably wont get much more than 25%.
Just can’t see Lib Dems or Tories doing that well and Greens so badly. Norwich South people are in the habit of voting Green.
Well, 7.4% of them voted Green last time – hardly a collective habit.
But the Greens doubled their vote last time. If they keep going and get 16%, they will be serious players – as indeed their position on the local council justifies Green aspirations so to be.
I have posted on the Oxford East strand that I have a suspicion that because LibDem policies are not as unambiguously pro-student as their policies were in 2005, I am predicting a swing against the LibDems in 2010 in constituencies with significant student populations, such as this. The LibDems were getting around 35% support from students 5 years ago. A new survey (see Ox E for link), seems to put the LDs on 19% among students, with that support shifting to the Greens. If that shift is repeated in this constituency, then just on national trends among students, the drop of student support alone for the LDs will cost them 2% in this constituency, and should help the Green to an equal extent. The greater local decline of the LibDems and rise of the Greens in this constituency should mean an even greater LibDem-Green swing here, but one of the factors underlying that might be students turning away from the LibDems.
I think Clarke will hold this on about 30%, the opposition will be split too many ways – can’t see the Tory vote being vastly higher than last time, and the LD and Greens will share the rest of the votes. Can’t see the Greens taking this (despite their council presence) – they ran a big campaign last time and made 7% – think 13/14% tops for them:
Lab 30, LD 27, Con 25, Green 13