Norwich South
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 15374 (37.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 12246 (30.1%)
Conservative: 8757 (21.5%)
Other: 4284 (10.5%)
Majority: 3129 (7.7%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 9567 (22.7%)
Labour: 15904 (37.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 12251 (29%)
Green: 3101 (7.4%)
UKIP: 597 (1.4%)
Other: 770 (1.8%)
Majority: 3653 (8.7%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 10551 (24.8%)
Labour: 19367 (45.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 9640 (22.6%)
UKIP: 473 (1.1%)
Green: 1434 (3.4%)
Other: 1127 (2.6%)
Majority: 8816 (20.7%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 12028 (23.7%)
Labour: 26267 (51.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 9457 (18.6%)
Referendum: 1464 (2.9%)
Other: 1585 (3.1%)
Majority: 14239 (28%)
Boundary changes: loses Cringleford to Norfolk South and gains a small area around the fringes of New Costessey. To the north it gains part of Thorpe Hamlet and loses part of Crome to Norwich North.
Profile: Norwich South covers the majority of the wards in Norwich City Council, including the town centre, along with the Norwich suburb of New Costessey which falls under South Norfolk District Council. The seat inclues the “Golden Triangle”, the south-western part of Norwich near the University of East Anglia consisting of victorian properties, with a large proportion of students and young professionals. Norwich Union is the largest local employer.
The seat has normally been Labour`s strongest seat in Norfolk due to the relatively high proportion of council tenants on estates like Lakenham, Bowthorpe and West Earlham. More recently the seat has swung towards the Liberal Democrats and the Greens, who currently (Nov 2006) hold nine seats on Norwich City Council.
Current MP: Charles Clarke (Labour) born 1950, London, the son of a Civil Service Permanent Secretary. Educated at Highgate School and Cambridge. President of the NUS from 1975-1977. Former Hackney Councillor. A senior advisor and eventually chief of staff to Neil Kinnock as Leader of the Labour party, after 1992 Clarke worked in public affairs consultancy before being elected as an MP in 1997. He was rapidly promoted, becoming a junior minister after less than a year as an MP and entering the cabinet as Party Chairman in 2001. He became education Secretary in 2002 and suceeded David Blunkett as Home Secretary in 2004. In April 2006 he offered his resignation over the release of over 1,000 foriegn prisoners who should have been considered for deportation. His resignation was refused, but he was sacked following Labour`s local government election losses in May 2006. He has subsequently been critical of Gordon Brown`s suitability to be Prime Minister (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Adrian Ramsay (Green) Norwich councillor since 2003.
Simon Wright (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Imperial College London. Former teacher, currently campaigns and communications officer for Norman Lamb MP, the MP for Norfolk North. North Norfolk District Councillor.
Vandra Ahlstrom (UKIP) Contested Norwich South 2005
Antony Little (Conservative) History teacher. Norwich councillor. Contested Norwich South 2005.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 88174
Male: 48%
Female: 52%
Under 18: 18.5%
Over 60: 22.1%
Born outside UK: 7%
White: 96.4%
Black: 0.4%
Asian: 0.9%
Mixed: 1.1%
Other: 1.1%
Christian: 60.7%
Muslim: 0.8%
Full time students: 11.6%
Graduates 16-74: 23.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 27.4%
Owner-Occupied: 50.6%
Social Housing: 34.1% (Council: 27.9%, Housing Ass.: 6.2%)
Privately Rented: 12.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8%
The bigger surprise was that the Greens gained Mile Cross (in Noriwch North). They do have some impressive performances here and this may be the only local authority they carry in the European vote (as in Oxford they have fallen back and the Tories remain strong in Brighton & Hove).
This doesnt look good for Labour in fourth place again, but paradoxically it may not be so bad for them, because the Green advance has also come at the expense of a LD collapse. SInce the Greens cannot win this parliamentary seat, the split in the opposition is probably sufficient to keep this constituency Labour in a general election, even allowing for another substantial drop in their vote share.
Pete, how can you say the Greens can not win this seat? They have outperformed beyond expectations, and they have run Lib Dems and Labour into the ground. I suspect some of those that have voted Lib Dem and Labour out of suspicion that the Greens couldn’t win would swing support behind the Greens come the General Election.
Along with Brighton Pavilion, I think Norwich South is in the bag for the Greens. They just have to up the ante a bit more, and they can expect to see Norwich South go Green on election night.
Luke people vote differently in local and general elections - just ask the Lib Dems. there are countless examples where they regularly topped the poll in local elections in areas which they then came nowhere near winning in a general election.
In 2005 the Greens got over 7000 votes in this constituency in the local elections and just over 3000 in the general election. At that rate of split voting you’d be doing well to get above 20% in this seat (and that would be a good result up from 7% last time). Theres alot of people who dont bother turning out in local elections who will come out in a general election and will be voting on national issues for a change of government or more of the same. You’re raising your expectations to unrealistic levels and youre bound to end up disappointed.
“expect to see Norwich South go Green on election night.”
Where does that sentiment come from? The Green’s came 12000 votes behind in 2005. The notional vote under the boundary changes don’t change the vote gap much at all.
Where will these 12000 votes come from? Labour will lose votes quite heavily. I agree. But I doubt that they will shoot over to the Greens, whom I can’t see the public think will have any chance of winning.
Also, remember that this could be a 1997. The Tories will win in most of the seats that they are the credible in. The Lib Dems will win some of these varying by seat and will pick up many others where the Tories aren’t credible.
The Greens aren’t credible here. I can’t say whether it will be Lib Dem or Tory but it certainly won’t be Green.
Pete Whitehead: “the Greens cannot win this parliamentary seat”
I think that is a major assumption and, frankly, one that has little foundation in reality… As a local resident in this constituency I see many reasons why the Greens could gain their first MP here.
The Greens have a lead of more than 10% on other parties in Norwich South in local elections, and now also control the majority of wards in this area at both City and County levels. Their sitting councilors have been returned with huge majorities.
They will be massively buoyed by the impact of the expenses scandal on all of the major parties. The parliamentary candidate, Adrian Ramsey, deputy leader of the Greens nationally, is likely to be seen as a genuine local who will put the concerns of constituents on the national stage (I believe that he is the only candidate born and raised in Norwich).
Finally, since the Tories polled third at the general election in 2005 and only narrowly beat the Greens, few voters will be “tactically” voting Labour to stop the Tories getting in (the normal reason why general election results don’t always reflect local ones).
Sorry, just noted the Tories beat the Greens by a little more than I remembered in 2005, but they would still also need a major swing to be a threat to Labour… So I think my point on tactical voting still stands.
You cannot say that the Greens are not credible challengers here given their local strength and voting in the County Council and European elections.
Green prospects in the seat will be affected by their performance in the forthcoming Norwich North by-election. A stong Green vote in the by-election, let alone a Green gain, is likely to have a halo effect improving their chances in Norwich South at the next General Election.
The same point applies to the other parties, perhaps in particular the Liberal Democrats. Although the Greens are best placed in that they have less to lose, so a bad result in Norwich North wouldn’t hurt them here as much as the other parties.
Greens were the only party to secure more votes (3x) last week than in 2005 GE.
Next best performances were from UKIP ( 73%) then Con (60%) with LDs at only just over 50%, while Lab fell to less than a third of their 2005 vote.
It is not inconceivable that this will end up as a 4-way marginal at the next election, with no party gaining more than 30%.
I agree with Frederic that the outcome in the Norwich North by-election could have a signifcant impact on this seat. If it is a clean Tory win over Labour, with Greens and LD way behind, that may suggest a similar outcome here. If it turns into a Tory win over Greens in second, with Lab and LD trailing, then Greens stand a good chance of being main challengers in this seat. Only if LDs can either claim second place or a close third in North do they have a realsitic prospect of winning here.
[...] parties do have for campaigning at the moment should be being deployed to unseat Charles Clarke in Norwich South. This is Lib Dem target seat number 24 (NN doesn’t even register). The last year is crucial [...]