Comments on: Norwich North

By: Graham

Graham — Sat, 15 Oct 2011 20:43:09 +0000

I live in Norwich North and agree pretty well entirely with Pete Whitehead’s analysis. The recent ‘byelection ‘ factor will have boosted the Tory position here – and in Crewe & Nantwich – in 2010, and some of that may well unwind next time.Labour won the seat in 2005 by 5,500 , and whilst Ian Gibson certainly had a big personal vote the size of his majority makes it unlikely that a different Labour candidate would have won by less than 2,000 that year.Labour’s lead nationally in 2005 was 3% which suggests that in an even year the outlook here might be even stevens.

By: wolf

wolf — Sat, 15 Oct 2011 18:02:59 +0000

@Frederick Stansfield

Are you correct? I thought there was no preparation for the nationalisation of the mines which was why things collapsed so disastrously in 1947 as soon as they were nationalised. Wilson was an ‘expert’ in cotton.
Chloe Smith doesn’t do much constituency work and probably doesn’t know much about her subject but unlike Dr Fox she’s very loyal and boring.

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Sat, 15 Oct 2011 16:11:38 +0000

I’m not sure the Tories are entirely safe here. I can see it being problematic in very different national circumstances, but it would be Conservative in an even year.

By: Pete Whitehead

Pete Whitehead — Sat, 15 Oct 2011 16:10:49 +0000

Well there isn’t going to be any Labour landslide next election on the scale of 1997 or 2001, but Frederic is right that this is nevertheless a very winnable seat even allowing for the boundary changes. All they do is give this seat roughly the same boundaries as 1997-2010 and of course Labour won the seat easily enough then, not just in 1997 and 2001 but also in 2005. By-elections always have a knock on effect to the following general election, especially where the seat has changed hands and so Smiths majority in 2010 probably flatters her position somewhat. If Labour were on course for even a small majority this would be a quite likely gain. As I think that itself is unlikely to happen I do expect a Conservative hold here in 2015 but yes – a lot to happen between now and then.
I do think Frederic on the other hand may be unduly pessimistic about Norwich South where I can’t envisage any outcome other than a Labour gain in 2015

By: Frederic Stansfield

Frederic Stansfield — Sat, 15 Oct 2011 15:38:05 +0000

Aren’t you being pessimistic from your party’s point of view, AKMD?

Chloe Smith may have good chances here next time, but it is hardly a rock solid seat . There is a lot to happen before the next General Election and surely Labour would win if there was a 1997/2001 style result.

Labour’s problem in Norwich South is whether anti-Coalition former LibDem voters will go to Labout or the Greens.

By: akmd

akmd — Sat, 15 Oct 2011 12:01:19 +0000

Chloe Smith should have no problems holding this seat next time. Labour need to concentrate on gaining Norwich South from the LDs which is a much easier seat for them than this one is.

By: Frederic Stansfield

Frederic Stansfield — Sat, 15 Oct 2011 11:21:23 +0000

In my last post I should of course have written Chloe Smith. My apologies for my memory slip.

By: Pete Whitehead

Pete Whitehead — Sat, 15 Oct 2011 10:45:35 +0000

Exactly – the boundary changes, without making this safe, significantly benefit the Conservatives here. There could be no justification for Chloe Smith abandoning this seat as it becomes safer, for a neighbouring seat which contains none of her existing seat

By: A Cairns

A Cairns — Sat, 15 Oct 2011 10:43:23 +0000

It might be a bit vulnerable to Labour but I would have thought the tories can expect to hold on here by 1000-2000 given the boundary changes which bring Taverham back in (and the LD vote might not be as squeezable there than in the Norwich city parts).

The Mid Norfolk MP will have the claim on the redrawn Broadland seat anyway.

By: Frederic Stansfield

Frederic Stansfield — Sat, 15 Oct 2011 10:42:41 +0000

Which raises, Joseph, the need for us psephologists to consider the effects of proposed boundary changes on Norwich and Norfolk. I’ve been busy commenting on the ones in East Kent, where there is an issue concerning Hugh Robertson, the junior minister for the Olympics, whose Mid Kent seat is being abolished.