Norwich North
2010 Results:
Conservative: 17280 (40.59%)
Labour: 13379 (31.43%)
Liberal Democrat: 7783 (18.28%)
BNP: 747 (1.75%)
UKIP: 1878 (4.41%)
Green: 1245 (2.92%)
Christian: 118 (0.28%)
Independent: 143 (0.34%)
Majority: 3901 (9.16%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 19133 (47.5%)
Conservative: 12437 (30.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 6361 (15.8%)
Other: 2339 (5.8%)
Majority: 6696 (16.6%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 15638 (33.2%)
Labour: 21097 (44.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 7616 (16.2%)
Green: 1252 (2.7%)
UKIP: 1122 (2.4%)
Other: 308 (0.7%)
Majority: 5459 (11.6%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 15761 (34.6%)
Labour: 21624 (47.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 6750 (14.8%)
UKIP: 471 (1%)
Green: 797 (1.7%)
Other: 211 (0.5%)
Majority: 5863 (12.9%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 17876 (32.5%)
Labour: 27346 (49.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 6951 (12.6%)
Referendum: 1777 (3.2%)
Other: 1107 (2%)
Majority: 9470 (17.2%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Chloe Smith (Conservative) Born 1982, Ashford. Educated at the University of York. Former aide to Gillian Shephard and Bernard Jenkin, proir to her election worked in professional services. First elected as MP for Norwich North 2009 by-election.
Chloe Smith (Conservative) Born 1982, Ashford. Educated at the University of York. Former aide to Gillian Shephard and Bernard Jenkin, proir to her election worked in professional services. First elected as MP for Norwich North 2009 by-election.
John Cook (Labour) Former bank clerk. Ipswich councillor. Former Broadland councillor, former Norfolk county councillor.
David Stephen (Liberal Democrat)
Jess Goldfinch (Green) Teaching assistant. Norwich councillor 2003-2006..
Glenn Tingle (UKIP) Contested Norwich North by-election 2009.Thomas Richardson (BNP) Andrew Holland (Christian Party) 
Bill Holden (Independent) Contested Norwich North 2005, 2009 by-election.2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 83507
Male: 48.8%
Female: 51.2%
Under 18: 20.4%
Over 60: 24%
Born outside UK: 3.5%
White: 98.3%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 0.5%
Mixed: 0.7%
Other: 0.4%
Christian: 69.2%
Full time students: 2.2%
Graduates 16-74: 12.4%
No Qualifications 16-74: 33.1%
Owner-Occupied: 69.2%
Social Housing: 21.4% (Council: 16.5%, Housing Ass.: 4.9%)
Privately Rented: 6.9%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 7.1%
2009 By-election
The by-election was held on the 23rd July 2009, following the resignation of the former MP Ian Gibson. Gibson announced his immediate resignation from Parliament on the 5th June 2009, having been banned from standing as a Labour candidate at the next election after being criticised in the expenses row. The by-election was won by the Conservatives with a 16.5% swing from Labour, the second Conservative by-election gain of the Parliament. The Labour candidate, Chris Ostrowski, was hospitalised with Swine Flu during the campaign, and was represented by his wife at the election count.
By-election result
Chloe Smith (Conservative): 13591 (39.5%)
Chris Ostrowski (Labour): 6243 (18.2%)
April Pond (Liberal Democrat): 4803 (14.0%)
Glenn Tingle (UKIP): 4068 (11.8%)
Rupert Read (Green): 3350 (9.7%)
Craig Murray (Honest Man): 953 (2.8%)
Robert West (BNP): 941 (2.7%)
Bill Holden (Independent): 166 (0.5%)
Howling Laud (Loony): 144 (0.4%)
Anne Fryatt (NOTA): 59 (0.2%)
Thomas Burridge (Libertarian): 36 (0.1%)
Peter Baggs (Independent): 23 (0.1%)
Majority: 7348 (21.4%)
By election Candidates
Peter Baggs (Independent) Plastering contractor
Thomas Burridge (Libertarian) born 1991, Kings Lynn. Educated at Litcham High School.Bill Holden (Independent) Contested Norwich North 2005 as an independent.
Alan Hope (Offical Monster Raving Loony) born Mytchett. Publican. Leader of the Monster Raving Loony Party since 1999. Contested Teignbridge 1983, 1987, 1992, Aldershot 1997, Eddisbury by-election 1999, Kensington and Chelsea by-election 1999, Brent East by-election 2003, Hartlepool by-election 2004, Aldershot 2005, Blaenau Gwent by-election 2006, Sedgefield by-election 2007.
Craig Murray (Put an Honest Man Into Parliament) born 1958, West Runton. Educated at Paston School and Dundee University. Former civil servant, he served as British Ambassador to Uzbekistan from 2002 to 2004. He was recalled in 2003 over disciplinary charges including exchanging visas for sex, but was later cleared of all charges. He was later quoted by the press as saying that MI6 utilised Uzbek intelligence data that had been gained by torture. It was claimed that Murray had lost the confidence of his colleages, and he resigned from the civil service. He has subsequently campaigned against torture and written several books. Contested Blackburn as an independent 2005.
Chris Ostrowski. (Labour) Educated at University of East Anglia in Norwich. Works in retail and e-commerce. Contested East of England in 2009 European elections.
April Pond (Liberal Democrat) born 1962, Mulbarton. Educated at Norwich High School. Self employed retailer. Former Norwich councillor. Had previously been selected as PPC for the neighbouring Broadland seat.
Rupert Read (Green) Reader in Philosophy at East Anglia University. Norwich councillor. Contested Eastern region in 2009 European elections.Chloe Smith (Conservative) Educated at the University of York. Former aide to Gillian Shephard and Bernard Jenkin, now working in professional services.Glenn Tingle (UKIP)
Robert West (BNP) Former lecturer who has set up his own church in Holbeach. Former South Holland District councillor, elected as a Conservative but defected to the BNP in 2006. Contested East Midlands region 2009 European elections.
Anne Fryatt (NOTA)
Billy, the LD council seat recently won is in Broadland now. LD have much more chance in Broadland than here
The interesting thing is, that the high UKIP vote at the by-election didn’t stop Tories taking th seat with a 16.5% swing from Labour – confirming that they take votes from, presumably, Euro-sceptic Labour/Lib Dems as well as from Tories – who are broadly eurosceptic anyway and come home to the Tory fold when it really matters.
People don’t *tend* to vote on Europe in general elections though…
Tories to win by 2500 – 3000 votes.
No noticeable campaign from anyone that would make people think anything will change.
Lib Dems active in key wards (Sprowston, Hellesdon, Mile Cross), with lots of poster boards up in Mile Cross (more than Labour).
Tories seem very quiet but they will hold on this time.
CON GAIN (effectively hold)
I understand that the Conservatives’ main strength was in the Drayon and Taverham areas of the old constituency, and to a slightly lesser extent in Catton Grove and Sprowston.
Which wards did they improve in to hold the seat? Was it just getting out more of their vote in Sprowston and Catton Grove?
The strongest Conservative parts of the seat are probably in Thorpe St Andrew and Old Catton.
It’s a bit surprising the UKIP and Green votes didn’t hold a bit better.
This could be a close battle again.
Was the by-election fought on the new boundaries?
I think it was.
The by-election was fought on the old boundaries, which included the areas around Drayon and Taverham. These have since been ceded to the newly created Broadland seat.
Joe, the by-election was on the old boundaries. The new ones didn’t take effect until this General Election (otherwise you’d have the possibility of wards with 2 MPs and other wards with none)
Paul – very good point, and it makes her achievement in winning by nearly 4000 all the more impressive. Under these boundaries, Labour would have certainly won in 1992 and 1979.
The swing from 2005 here was 13%.
In Crewe the swing from 2005 was 14%.
I’m not sure what the swing was in seats with similar majorities and demographics was but would guess at about 6-7%.
So the Conservatives did very much better in their two byelection gains than they did on average.
Of course much of this improvement was down to the change in incumbancy.
But perhaps it does suggest that in the seats that the Conservatives did gain at the general election there is scope for an incumbancy bonus much larger than is generally assumed.
Joe James B makes a good point about the Greens and UKIP.
I presume that the Greens put all their effort into Norwich South. And from her profile, their General Election candidate was reasonably experienced, but did not have the intellectual or political background of Rupert Read.
All the same, it is psephologically surprising that the Green votes should have gone in such opposite directions in the two Norwich seats,.
JJB, Frederic,
Another, smaller, part of the explanation of the drop in the Green share between the byelection an the GE in this constituency (as well as what Frederic rightly says), is the boundary change, which moved what was by far the best part of the constituency for the Green Party at the byelection into Norwich South, while moving territory in Hellesdon North West into the the constituency which is much less good for the Green Party.
Meanwhile, it is probably worth noting here that there is an election for all the City wards in September (postponed from May – see South constituency for more info).
Yes, Ben. I’ve just posted on the Norwich South thread about the local elections here.
Perhaps the main interest, looking from outside, is going to be in the Norwich South area. Specifically, it will be of interest to see how far the LibDems can hold their vote following their entry into the ConDem coalition in the area of a seat they gained in the General Election.
Are the Greens still concentrating on the Norwich South area? Personally, I think this would be a mistake: if they are to get control of the council they must hae at least candidates across the city/
The psephol;gical interest specific to Norwich North will relate to the Conservatives. Will they be able to consolidate their gain and retention of the Westminster seat into an increased vote at local level? Conversely, will Labour be damaged at local level by their loss of this seat (and also of Norwich South)?
Incidentally, people might care to read former Green candidate Rupert Read’s article “On Philosophy’s (lack of) Progress: From Plato to Wittgenstein (and Rawls)”, “Philosopjhy”, volume 85, July 2010, pp341 – 367. This is an academic philosophy article, but it differentiates the author’s position fron liberal political philosophers such as Mill and Rawls. In so far as this is a Green perspective, it should perhaps remind us that green philosophy is not a cuddly form of liberalism or socialism, and some of its philosophical antecedents are, in the loose everyday sense of the term rather than with direct reference to Hegel’s legacy, quite right-wing.
“Are the Greens still concentrating on the Norwich South area? Personally, I think this would be a mistake: if they are to get control of the council they must hae at least candidates across the city/”
The last time there were local elections in Norwich (namely the 2009 CC elections) the Greens won in two of the four wards which are in this constituency, so I doubt they will be ignoring this area. that said I wouldn’t fancy their chances overmuch of repeating that trick – certainly not in Mile Cross which they won by a whisker and traditionally was the safest Labour ward here. Labour will be defending all four seats being contested here. In 2009 they only won one of the four with the Conservatives also winning in Catton Grove. It would seem reasonable to expect a superior Labour performance here now than in 2009 though.
“while moving territory in Hellesdon North West into the the constituency which is much less good for the Green Party. ”
What a load of rubbish.
Hellesdon North West has always been in Norwich North.
The truth is while the Greens did well in the by election, it disapeared in Sewell and Mile Cross despite county wins there and was virtually non exsistent everywhere else.
‘the boundary change, which moved what was by far the best part of the constituency for the Green Party at the byelection into Norwich South’.
This is simply not so – only a few hundred voters moved between the two constituencies.
The seat has actually reverted to almost the precise boundaries that existed from 1983 – 1997. Throughout that time it was Tory -held – Ian Gibson coming very close in 1992.
I suspect that this seat may not exist at the next election. The Norwich Council wards will likely move into South to make a single Norwich seat (maybe some room for negotiation if that would produce a massively wrongly sized seat) with the northern parts moving into Broadland – which would probably have knock-on effects, territory going into North Norfolk, NW Norfolk and Gt Yarmouth
That is one possibility, but the reduction in seats isn’t such that the redrawing of boundaries need be as radical as a lot of people seem to be suggesting. To get the two Norwich seats up to the new quota, retty much reversing the most recent boundary changes would be sufficient. Thus Cringleford and Old Costessey from South Norfolk would bring Norwich South up to size while bringing back Drayton and Taverham would more or less do the same for Norwich North (possibly adding one other ward such as Spixworth or Plumstead). This would strengthen the Conservatives and LDs in their respective seats without putting either out of Labour’s reach, whereas a single Norwich seat would be safely Labour but limit them to only one possible seat in the area.
Chloe Smith must have been very young when she worked for Gillian Shepherd,
unless it was shortly before 2005,
or since, in the Lords.
Lots of noise in the local paper about how Chloe Smith is trying to disband her local Conservative Association because she doesn’t like the rather senior membership.Apparently it is now in special measures.
Pingback: UK Polling Report
Wolf – that’s interesting. I’ve counted 20 Tory Assocs in ‘Special Measures’ in the past year, from Southport to Epsom.
A County Council By-Election here tonight.
Old Catton Result:
Con 664
Lib Dem 414
Lab 377
UKIP 107
Green 75
Con 40.6% (-8.2%)
Lib Dem 25.3% (+11.8%)
Lab 23.0% (+12.2%)
UKIP 6.5% (-9.7%)
Green 4.6% (-6.0%)
Unexpectedly good result for the LDs.
I think this result shows that the LibDems are still holding up in the South, whilst being virtually wiped out in the North showing a stark polarisation amongst LibDem voters.
I’m not sure about that exactly but maybe they are holding in parts of East Anglia. Maybe this is the right type of suburban territory for the LDs as their vote is surely vulnerable to collapse in Norwich S.
It’s one of a number of by-elections in Southern England where they have done better than expected in the last few weeks. This though is their best performance. Not that Labour will be too unhappy either, having also had a sharp rise in their vote. The LD vote also went up in Peckham last week and wasn’t squeezed in a by-election in Putney just before that. At the moment it’s the Tories taking the biggest hit in local by-elections, although in national polls they’ve certainly not hit meltdown yet or anything resembling it.
LibDems have been helped by the hacking. I notice their MP for Norwich South has now opened a constituency office so perhaps there will be an election sooner than later as it looks like the Libs may be moving towards an understanding with Labour.
The Tory performance in local council by-elections usually seems to be quite lacklustre – even in 2008.
So it was in the months preceeding the May elections this year. Yet the results showed them making clear net gains.
“I notice their MP for Norwich South has now opened a constituency office so perhaps there will be an election sooner than later as it looks like the Libs may be moving towards an understanding with Labour”
What complete horseshit.
How does a rookie Lib Dem MP opening a new constituency office mean there’s going to be an imminent election?
And as for the Libs moving towards an understanding with Labour – well I’m sure they would love to but Labour are going to enjoy grinding Nick Clegg’s face into the dirt for many years yet.
You’re right that hacking has enhanced Vince Cable’s reputation but the only way forward for the Lib Dems now is to make the coalition work and make it last a full term.
This MP has become Economic Secretary to the Treasury, aged 28.
Good luck to her, but has she the experience?
Harold Wilson became an economic minister (President of the Board of Trade) very young, but he had previously been an Economics Don at Oxford, where he had done backroom work preparaing for the nationalisation of the coal mines.
There a number of able Tory MPs elected at the last election. I can’t help thinking that a young prospective candidate who is lucky enough to win a by-election just before her or his party comes to power has a big head start. Are there any precedents about this that people can bring to mind, and what was the result for them in terms both of ministerial career and subsequent fortune in election results?
How much will responsibility for “Cuts” stick to Chloe Wood? Perhaps she is so junior, not least in image, the departmental Cabinet Ministers will carry all the blame.
Suppose by 2015 that this seat is at risk of a Labour gain, would CCHQ ‘persuade’ the current Broadland MP Keith Simpson to stand down so Chloe Smith could be parachuted in what is quite a safe seat for the Conservatives thus prolonging her career.
Which raises, Joseph, the need for us psephologists to consider the effects of proposed boundary changes on Norwich and Norfolk. I’ve been busy commenting on the ones in East Kent, where there is an issue concerning Hugh Robertson, the junior minister for the Olympics, whose Mid Kent seat is being abolished.
It might be a bit vulnerable to Labour but I would have thought the tories can expect to hold on here by 1000-2000 given the boundary changes which bring Taverham back in (and the LD vote might not be as squeezable there than in the Norwich city parts).
The Mid Norfolk MP will have the claim on the redrawn Broadland seat anyway.
Exactly – the boundary changes, without making this safe, significantly benefit the Conservatives here. There could be no justification for Chloe Smith abandoning this seat as it becomes safer, for a neighbouring seat which contains none of her existing seat
In my last post I should of course have written Chloe Smith. My apologies for my memory slip.
Chloe Smith should have no problems holding this seat next time. Labour need to concentrate on gaining Norwich South from the LDs which is a much easier seat for them than this one is.
Aren’t you being pessimistic from your party’s point of view, AKMD?
Chloe Smith may have good chances here next time, but it is hardly a rock solid seat . There is a lot to happen before the next General Election and surely Labour would win if there was a 1997/2001 style result.
Labour’s problem in Norwich South is whether anti-Coalition former LibDem voters will go to Labout or the Greens.
Well there isn’t going to be any Labour landslide next election on the scale of 1997 or 2001, but Frederic is right that this is nevertheless a very winnable seat even allowing for the boundary changes. All they do is give this seat roughly the same boundaries as 1997-2010 and of course Labour won the seat easily enough then, not just in 1997 and 2001 but also in 2005. By-elections always have a knock on effect to the following general election, especially where the seat has changed hands and so Smiths majority in 2010 probably flatters her position somewhat. If Labour were on course for even a small majority this would be a quite likely gain. As I think that itself is unlikely to happen I do expect a Conservative hold here in 2015 but yes – a lot to happen between now and then.
I do think Frederic on the other hand may be unduly pessimistic about Norwich South where I can’t envisage any outcome other than a Labour gain in 2015
I’m not sure the Tories are entirely safe here. I can see it being problematic in very different national circumstances, but it would be Conservative in an even year.
@Frederick Stansfield
Are you correct? I thought there was no preparation for the nationalisation of the mines which was why things collapsed so disastrously in 1947 as soon as they were nationalised. Wilson was an ‘expert’ in cotton.
Chloe Smith doesn’t do much constituency work and probably doesn’t know much about her subject but unlike Dr Fox she’s very loyal and boring.
I live in Norwich North and agree pretty well entirely with Pete Whitehead’s analysis. The recent ‘byelection ‘ factor will have boosted the Tory position here – and in Crewe & Nantwich – in 2010, and some of that may well unwind next time.Labour won the seat in 2005 by 5,500 , and whilst Ian Gibson certainly had a big personal vote the size of his majority makes it unlikely that a different Labour candidate would have won by less than 2,000 that year.Labour’s lead nationally in 2005 was 3% which suggests that in an even year the outlook here might be even stevens.