Norwich North
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 19133 (47.5%)
Conservative: 12437 (30.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 6361 (15.8%)
Other: 2339 (5.8%)
Majority: 6696 (16.6%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 15638 (33.2%)
Labour: 21097 (44.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 7616 (16.2%)
Green: 1252 (2.7%)
UKIP: 1122 (2.4%)
Other: 308 (0.7%)
Majority: 5459 (11.6%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 15761 (34.6%)
Labour: 21624 (47.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 6750 (14.8%)
UKIP: 471 (1%)
Green: 797 (1.7%)
Other: 211 (0.5%)
Majority: 5863 (12.9%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 17876 (32.5%)
Labour: 27346 (49.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 6951 (12.6%)
Referendum: 1777 (3.2%)
Other: 1107 (2%)
Majority: 9470 (17.2%)
Boundary changes
Current MP: Vacant. Ian Gibson (Labour) announced his resignation on the 5th June 2009.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 83507
Male: 48.8%
Female: 51.2%
Under 18: 20.4%
Over 60: 24%
Born outside UK: 3.5%
White: 98.3%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 0.5%
Mixed: 0.7%
Other: 0.4%
Christian: 69.2%
Full time students: 2.2%
Graduates 16-74: 12.4%
No Qualifications 16-74: 33.1%
Owner-Occupied: 69.2%
Social Housing: 21.4% (Council: 16.5%, Housing Ass.: 4.9%)
Privately Rented: 6.9%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 7.1%
2009 By-election
Ian Gibson announced his immediate resignation from Parliament on the 5th June 2009, having been banned from standing as a Labour candidate at the next election after being criticised in the expenses row. The by-election will be held on the 23rd July.
By election Candidates
Bill Holden (no description) Contested Norwich North 2005 as an independent.
Alan Hope (Offical Monster Raving Loony) born Mytchett. Publican. Leader of the Monster Raving Loony Party since 1999. Contested Teignbridge 1983, 1987, 1992, Aldershot 1997, Eddisbury by-election 1999, Kensington and Chelsea by-election 1999, Brent East by-election 2003, Hartlepool by-election 2004, Aldershot 2005, Blaenau Gwent by-election 2006, Sedgefield by-election 2007.
Craig Murray (Independent) born 1958, West Runton. Educated at Paston School and Dundee University. Former civil servant, he served as British Ambassador to Uzbekistan from 2002 to 2004. He was recalled in 2003 over disciplinary charges including exchanging visas for sex, but was later cleared of all charged. He was later quoted by the press as saying that MI6 utilised Uzbek intelligence data that had been gained by torture. It was claimed that Murray had lost the confidence of his colleages, and he resigned from the civil service. He has subsequently campaigned against torture and written several books. Contested Blackburn as an independent 2005.
Chris Ostrowski. (Labour) Educated at University of East Anglia in Norwich. Works in retail and e-commerce. Contested East of England in 2009 European elections.
April Pond (Liberal Democrat) born 1962, Mulbarton. Educated at Norwich High School. Self employed retailer. Former Norwich councillor. Had previously been selected as PPC for the neighbouring Broadland seat.
Rupert Read (Green) Reader in Philosophy at East Anglia University. Norwich councillor. Contested Eastern region in 2009 European elections.
Chloe Smith (Conservative) Educated at the University of York. Former aide to Gillian Shephard and Bernard Jenkin, now working in professional services.
Glenn Tingle (UKIP)
Robert West (BNP) Former lecturer who has set up his own church in Holbeach. Former South Holland District councillor, elected as a Conservative but defected to the BNP in 2006. Contested East Midlands region 2009 European elections.
Thomas Burridge (Libertarian)
Labour: 10988
Conservative: 10788
Liberal Democrat: 3763
Others: 5985
Who is masquerading as Iain MacKintosh?
In all seriousness, that is a lot more realistic than most of your predictions, but still exceptionally unlikely.
NOOFFENCEALAN,. I don’t disagree with you that the SNP is a more signigificant force than the Greens at present - they have Westminster seats and are challenging strongly in more seats. However, this has been the position for some time. In addition, the strength of the SNP has already been tested during in recent by-elections, e.g. Glenrothes. By contrast, the Green surge is new. In addition, I don’t recollect a previous by-election in a seat, which although not itself a strong Green target, is in a City and County with a Green presence. Indeed, I wonder when a by-election was last fought in a constitutency with Green local councillors - I cannot think of one. In my previous post I was thinking about the psephological significance of the contest as much as the strength of the candidates.
Regarding the predictors of a Conservative win, e.g. Paul H-J and Heart, I suspect you are agreeing with the recent poll Anthony has reported elsewhere on this site, which suggests that the Tories will win not by attracting extra votes but because there will be a protest vote against Labour, which in this seat will go to the Greens even if it is not enough to win them the seat.
As previous posts (notably Paul P-J) have commented on the candidates, perhaps I can make some observations on my opinion of what I saw (and emphasising that I am going only on this limited information, and if I knew more my views might change) on Tuesdays’ “Newsnight” programme, on which the four main candidates were intereviewed.
Firstly in terms of these observations, in my view Rupert Read, the Green, was by a very considerable margin the most capable candidate. From my days of doing a degree in occupational psychology, I think in terms of person specification, and to my mind Rupert Read was the only one of the candidates interviewed to have both a career indicating the necessary ability to be an MP and also sufficient life experience. In addition, he turned a hostile question excellently to refer to Labour’s record on the Iraq War. He also had good physical presentation, avoiding what I think is often the Green Achilles’ heel (ideological problems over animal products in makeup and clothing). His weakness, but also strength, was that he did the interview solo, without a leader or other minder.
So far as I could see, the Liberal Democrat came across a trailing second. She appeared to be a competent local councillor, and she turned well a question about the LibDems having wanted a clebrity candidate. But to be honest, I could not see her being more than a backbencher if elected (I could easily see Rupert Read as a senior minister in a coalition government) . In addition, I think she was actually let down by Nick Clegg. Clegg did the same minding role for his candidate as David Cameron had done a few minutes before on the same programme for the Conservative. Bluntly, both leaders are trying to project similar images and Cameron does it, in my view, better and with more presence. And Clegg does not seem to have much different to say. From a psephological point of view, this raises questions about the LibDems at the forthcoming General Election as much as the immediate future of the by-election.
It was very difficult to tell about the Conservative candidate. Cameron did a very good job of chaperoning her so that it was the leader’s skills that made the impression. I suspect previous reports on this site are right.: Chloe Smith is an able candidate who would make a good MP, and might well hold onto the seat, but she would not have been chosen as a by-election candidate if she had not already been in place.
To be honest, I thought the Labour candidate was clearly the weakest of the four in relation to the BBC interview. Like Chloe Smith, he lacks experience. But in addition, I felt he made a hash of fending off the obvious hostile question about the reason for the by-election, and in terms of competence he lacked confidence in front of the camera.
Having made these points, the capabilities of the canidates in a by-election is limited when they are all so heavily minded. I recollect as a particular example the 1980s Crosby election when Labour candidate John Backhouse reached almost cult status with the media pack, but still got hammered at the polls. It may be more important that a minor party making a hard challenge has an excellent candidate.
From the Newsnight programme, it appears that the LIbDems are attacking the Greens. Indeed, the LIbDems ought to be seriously scared of coming fourth. But, by contrast with the Greeens, it is difficult to see what new things the LibDems are offering. And if the good people of Norwich North want to give Westminster a kicking, a Green vote is gpoing to be much more effective than a LibDem one, win or lose.
Nagative campaigning against a candidate with a prominent local job and an established local political record could, and perhaps should, backfire.
It is early days yet, but as things stand I would’t disagree greatly with Warof dreams’ prediction. (I suspect UKIP would hope to do better). He is being mild in suggesting that fourth place would be a weak performance for the LIbDems. If either the LibDems or Labour come fourth it will be terrible for the party concerned.
I agree we should not play up the Greens. A saved deposit would be an acceptable result for them, 15% Good and 20% Excellent. Again, third palce or better would be excellent for them. But I don’t think it too late from their point of view for the Greens to aim higher, or for the voters of Norwich North to deliver a memorable by-election result.
Hi Frederick - as someone who has recently received media training I can say that the green candidate looks the best on the telly - but that does not give a true reflection as to how good an MP that he will be.
There are a number of policy questions that the greens will need to answer if they are going to make a breakthrough in Westminster. Also, I think that it is foolhardy to assume that disaffected Labour suppporters vote green - the EU elections in Burnley/Hull voted for BNP. Why does the BNP not score more strongly in Conservative seats - it’s a question that warrants some serious thought.
Just a further thought - I see that the Monster Raving Loony party are on the radar for this seat….as I predicted. This by-election is down to Ian Gibson ‘throwing his toys out of the pram’ and will have no bearing on the next GE. It’s all nonsense and a waste of taxpayers money.,
Frederick,
The personality / character / abilities of a candidate are relevant for:
(a) an incumbent MP - is he/she worth retaining ?;
(b) challengers building a local campaign over months / years - are they credible alternatives ?
(c) competing candidates at a GE in a “new” seat - which would make the best representative ?
(d) a new candidate of the incumbent party at a GE where the incumbent MP is retiring honourably - is he/she a credible successor ?
For by-elections the time-span is too short, and the media profile too concentrated, for the character of the candidates to be a major issue unless they display too many negative qualities or make some horrendous howlers.
In that context, Mr Read and Miss Smith have the advantage over other candidates in that Mr Read is a local Councillor while Miss Smith has been “working” the seat for over a year. Beyond that, it will be issues (local as well as national) which swing the votes, and in that context Mr Ostrowski has two handicaps, firstly the national polls, and secondly, the reason why there is a by-election in the first place.
This means that Chloe Smith must be the favourite to win the seat, but Rupert Read may well come second.
A source within UKIP says that their candidate comes across like a Nazi stormtrooper. He thinks that that nice Ms Smith for the Tories will win.
Labour are running quite a strong campaign here, whether or not they win is a different matter, I don’t think the winning party will win by a massive margin either.
Its funny that prior to 1983 this was the most Labour of the two Norwich seats.
It seems that while much of the Labour areas of the old Norwich North went to South, what was left of North gained parts of Norfolk.