Northampton North
2010 Results:
Conservative: 13735 (34.11%)
Labour: 11799 (29.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 11250 (27.94%)
BNP: 1316 (3.27%)
UKIP: 1238 (3.07%)
Green: 443 (1.1%)
Christian: 98 (0.24%)
Independent: 392 (0.97%)
Majority: 1936 (4.81%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 15019 (39%)
Conservative: 11536 (29.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 10224 (26.5%)
Other: 1748 (4.5%)
Majority: 3483 (9%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 12945 (30.8%)
Labour: 16905 (40.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 10317 (24.5%)
UKIP: 1050 (2.5%)
Other: 831 (2%)
Majority: 3960 (9.4%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 12614 (30.4%)
Labour: 20507 (49.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 7363 (17.7%)
UKIP: 596 (1.4%)
Other: 414 (1%)
Majority: 7893 (19%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 17247 (33.4%)
Labour: 27247 (52.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 6579 (12.7%)
Other: 625 (1.2%)
Majority: 10000 (19.3%)
Boundary changes: Loses Spencer ward and parts of Ecton Brook, Old Duston, Weston and St James, all to Northampton South. Gains part of Abington.
Profile: A bellwether seat since its creation in 1964, now held by Labour on a relatively low proportion of support thanks to the opposition being split between Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats. This is mostly the suburban residential suburbs built after Northampton`s designation as a new town in the 1960s. Industry includes distribution and financial services.
The seat has a past history of “colourful” MPs, the MP upon its creation was left-wing firebrand Maureen Colquhoun, the first openly lesbian MP who left her husband for another woman in 1976 and was consequently deselected by her local party (and reinstated by the NEC). She was succeeded by Tony Marlow, the stripy-blazered outspoken right-winger, Maastricht rebel and backer of John Redwood`s leadership bid.
Current MP: Michael Ellis (Conservative) born Northampton. Barrister. Former Northamptonshire county councillor.
Michael Ellis (Conservative) born Northampton. Barrister. Former Northamptonshire county councillor.
Sally Keeble(Labour) born 1951, daughter of Sir Curtis Keeble, the former British ambassador to the USSR. Educated at Cheltenham Ladies College and Oxford University. Former journalist and head of communications for the GMB. Leader of Southwark council 1990-1993. First elected as MP for Northampton North 1997 (more information at They work for you)
Andrew Simpson (Liberal Democrat) born Welwyn Garden City. Educated at Manshead Upper School and Nene College. Marketing manager in financial services. Northampton councillor since 1995. Deputy leader of the Liberal Democrat group from 1999-2004. Contested Northampton South 2001, Northampton North 2005.
Tony Lochmuller (Green)
Jim MacArthur (UKIP) Born Birmingham. Educated at Holte Grammar Commercial School. Corportate Security advisor and martial arts instructor.
Ray Beasley (BNP) Timothy Webb (Christian Party) 
Malcolm Mildren (Independent) Semi retired chartered accountant. Northampton councillor since 2007, originally elected as a Liberal Democrat. Northamptonshire county councillor for the Conservative party 1997-2005.Eamonn Fitzpatrick (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 84227
Male: 48.4%
Female: 51.6%
Under 18: 22.8%
Over 60: 19.4%
Born outside UK: 8.4%
White: 91.8%
Black: 2.6%
Asian: 2.8%
Mixed: 1.8%
Other: 0.9%
Christian: 68.6%
Hindu: 1.1%
Muslim: 1.8%
Full time students: 6.7%
Graduates 16-74: 15.2%
No Qualifications 16-74: 30.8%
Owner-Occupied: 72%
Social Housing: 18.3% (Council: 15.5%, Housing Ass.: 2.9%)
Privately Rented: 6.7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 7.3%
I agree. NOC with Labour as the largest party and the Lib Dems decimated in a poor 3rd place.
There are to be 23 single member ward, 8 two-member and 2 3 -member. I may have a stab at working out how these would have gone in 2007 but even if that is possible, working out how they will go this may would be very difficult. I guess the changes may assist the Tories as there may be more seats on the southern edge where most growth has occurred. But I agree I can’t see it being other than NOC
Great to see so many single member wards starting to come in now. We’ve had a similar upheval here in Stoke. And of course, the new unitary authorities in Cornwall, Northumberland, Wiltshire and the like are also entirely single member.
Maybe in years from now, we can abolish the multi-member ward in England altogether. That will be great for local democracy and local communities.
I think I’m quite attracted to the idea of small single member wards.
(Although a little wary of political anoraks such as myself re-arranging train sets with costly local government re-organisation when we can ill afford it.
It may be a fairly easy change though done properly).
For this years local elections, Labour should be looking at around 1,500 gains to recover everything lost in 2007 and 2003, particularly as the LD vote is likley to be the lowest since the Lib/SDP collapse in 1988-90.
Yes. Of course, the boundary committee for England reviews local government ward boundaries on a periodic basis anyway, so there is no question of a costly reorganisation that we can ill afford. These things are happening anyway.
It would show up bad councillors as they’d have no colleagues to prop them up.
It might produce more hung councils as more detail is homed in on,
although it also removes the right of the electorate to cross lines.
What are the supposed advantages of single-member wards? I can’t think of any, myself. I’d far rather increase the chance of having at least one competent representative, ideally one whose political views aren’t too far from my own, and have a council which is more likely to reflect the views of a majority of residents.
Single member wards either re-elect the same councillor based on their party colours, regardless of their performance, or switch between parties every four years, largely based on their performance in the national polls.
Interesting point.
I’d have thought it might create more seats which never change hands because it homes in on a little bit of an area which is always Labour, or Conservative,
but produce more hung councils as larger seats tend to average the result for the whole area.
I’m not sure it’s a good or a bad idea.
Having had a look at the new ward boundaries, I think it is actually possible for the Conservatives to win a majority this May (but not for Labour). I don’t have strong local knowledge and its pretty difficult to tell, but looking at the way these wards might have voted in 2007, looking at the big anti-LD swing in 2009 and factoring a further likley decline to them plus a modest swing back to Labour, I reckon the Conservatives could get 20-25 seats (23 would give them a majority, with the remainder split fairly evenly between Labour and Lib Dem (plus 1 Independent Clarke in Castle). I could be very very wrong of course
I am surprised at how people think the LibDems will do so badly here?? Unless you all base your predictions on national polls?
The Lib Dems are fighting a Tory group who have made a terrible mess of the County Council (£62m worth of cuts – street lights off – buses cut and more), a Labour group who have completely collapsed in Northampton ( third of the wards do not have a Labour candidate and their campaign appears to be run from regional office in Nottingham) – they cant even run a local party why would Northampton trust them to run the Council.
The Lib Dems, in the last 4 years, have taken the Borough from Government intervention, to “one of the most improved” with NO cuts to services in the last budget, books balanced with exciting projects happening and soon to happen.
Im sure on May 5th people will see, back to the Tory Train Wreck or moving forward wth the Lib Dems
No I’m not basing my prediction purely on the national polls (though this will be a factor). I am more basing it on the fact that I believe the LDs have themselves made a hash of running Northampton. This is the impression I have gained from people posting on sites like this and from people I know who live there. It was also reflceted in the rather lacklustre performance of the LDs in the county council elections in 2009, when they did poorly relative to the Conservatives (but did better against Labour because of the problems both locally and nationally that party faced at the time). we will see what happens on May 5th, but my assessment is based on objective analysis of the facts as I see them. The above post would appear to consist of spin and sloganising and is therefore deeply unconvincing.
Interesting analysis.
If the County Council was unpopular, you’d expect to see an effect in 2009.
The LDs have been saying this about the County Council for quite a few years,
not just recently, now all authorities are having to deal with the financial mess the country faces.
Mike Fuller
“…a Labour group who have completely collapsed in Northampton ( third of the wards do not have a Labour candidate and their campaign appears to be run from regional office in Nottingham )…”
The Labour Party in Northampton has in no way collapsed. The Lib Dems are trying to convince people that Northampton Labour has collapsed to deflet attention away from their disgraceful record in power in The Guildhall. In truth every Labour Candidate standing for the Borough are working hard to win votes and expose the disgraceful half truths being perpetuated by the local Liberal Democrats.
The campaign by the local Labour Party is NOT being run from the Regional Office, and if, as you sound you are, are a Liberal Democrat, it is arrogant in the extreme to even attempt to claim that you know about internal decisions and actions made by the Labour Party. Do you have powers of ‘Clairvoyance’ or something?
You further say:
“The Lib Dems, in the last 4 years, have taken the Borough from Government intervention, to “one of the most improved” with NO cuts to services in the last budget…”
The central message that your above comments (that I have paraphrased above) seek to portray is disingenuous in the extreme.
The Lib Dem claim that Northampton has been transformed as a result of them controlling the Council for 4 years is utter Nonesense.
For a start the Borough Council has cut funding available to Community Groups.
The town centre is littered with many empty shops and has a rather shabby look about it and as for what should be the ‘Jewel’ in Northampton’s ‘Crown’: The Market Square has been destroyed by arrogant interference from the ruiling Lib Dem administration. The Lib Dems got rid of the Events Team in the Council, and along with it went many former well thought of Local Events, such as The Balloon Festival.
Furthermore the Public Spaces on the Council Estates are in a disgraceful state. As for the standard of Council Housing: it is truly shocking: only 49% – less that half of the Borough Council Housing stock does not meet the ‘Decent Homes’ standard.
This is the un-spun truth that tells of the Real Record of the ruiling Liberal Democrats in The Guildhall.
I only hope that they get the kicking – and ‘Electoral Meltdown’ in next weeks Council Elections. A result that they Richly Deserve.
Oh and I am a local too.
Looks liek the Conservcatives will win a majority. Labour doing well where they’ve bothered to stand. Lib Dem meltdown
I’ve only just noticed this council election result.
It must have been a late result,
although I thought I’d caught all those aswell.
I didn’t expect a Tory overall majority,
or a Lib Dem collapse on this scale.
For some reason they didn’t start counting until after the referendum coun t so the result came quite late on friday evening. I think I called this quite well in the end, though the extent of the LD meltdown surpassed even my own expectations (and hopes)
I was delighted by this result too-even though I got it completely wrong. The only thing I got right was the Lib Dem meltdown (which of course was inevitable). But I thought Labour would end up the largest party in a hung council-they really should have been to have been able to claim to be doing ‘well’.
This is another of those results which showed just how bad Labour’s results were on the night, and how well the Tories were doing.
This is the first Tory overall majority in Northampton since 1987
(The Tories ran the council from the previous Labour Government’s mid term in 1976 through to 1991,
when losses started to hit the Tory government).
The Tories of course were helped by there being elections in 1979, 1983 and 1987. If it had been one of those authorities which rotates, it probably would have slipped in and out of NOC or even Labour control in the 1980s.
BTW,
I doubt we’ll get an explanation from the Lib Dems of what happened here.
In the unlikely event that we do, it’ll probably be the usual unsporting attempt to blame someone else.
Sally Keeble is still alive and visible.If she took advice from the savvy Clyde Loakes (Labour’s nearly man in Northampton South), I am convinced she will ride back to power at the next General Election. She does need to hone her campaigning techniques.She can learn a lot from Clyde Loakes’ courting of younger voters by text messaging,use of social networks and following Clyde Loakes on Twitter.
Clyde and Sally together will prove an unstoppable electoral force. Clyde’s presence was felt in the recent Labour triumph in Northampton Borough Council elections.With new Councillors like the outstanding Beverley Menell, a real Labour “find”,Labour will be firing on all cylinders to propel Clyde and Sally back to Westminster.
Populist local Lib Dem Dennis Meredith said to be front runner for the Parliamentary candidacy in NN. One of the 4 survivors from the May 2011 rout.
Does anybody know anything about Cllr.Meredith’s political skills at this level? Local Councillor status no guarantee of Parliamentary success as Richard Church (twice) and Andy Simpson (twice) will testify.
Has Dennis Meredith got what it takes to win?
Clearly not is the answer to that question. The LD vote would be mercilessly squeezed in the current climate by both Labour & the Conservatives. The question would only be who would benefit the most from the likely collapse.
I agree with Barnaby- the Lib Dems will fall back here. Labour would probably feel more confident about winning over disillusioned Lib Dems than the Tories. Nonetheless, Michael Ellis may well benefit from his incumbency. I guess this one to watch come 2015!
This should really be a pretty easy Labour gain in 2015 although there’s probably scope for the tories to also increase their vote at the same time.
On a different note the former tory leader of the council David Palethorpe defected to Labour a month ago with one of possible the reasons for it to do with his support for Northampton unitary status.
The council is now:
Con – 25
Lab – 16
LD – 4
Is Sally Keeble (ex Labour MP) tipped to try to regain this swing marginal for Labour? The fate of the Lib Dem vote is a difficult one to call.Is Cllr.Meredith the only LD to throw his hat in the ring? Incumbent Ellis seems to have the field left open to him.
Rumour has it the leader of the Labour Group, Cllr Lee Mason, has the nomination.
What think all ye of this?
I have to admit I loved it when Benjamin replied to Miriam Purdom,
” a bit less hubris and a bit more Focus delivery if you want to help the cause”
I noticed that this MP shares the name of the Monty Python episode Michael Ellis. I wonder if he has ever tried to buy an ant from a department store?
“Is Sally Keeble (ex Labour MP) tipped to try to regain this swing marginal for Labour? ”
Yes, she’s putting herself forward for selection again
I can’t believe anyone would ever take Sally Keeble seriously again after she signed up to that commons motion a few years ago and then voted against it as she caved in to the pressure of the whips.
Can’t remember what the issue was about, but people tend to remember the overall impression of someone who was more interested in promotion than principle.
Its one thing to support a cause in public but refuse to sign up to an actual motion. Its quite another to sign up to the motion and then vote against it!
Labour have indeed re-selected Keeble today
@Andrea
Thanks for the update. No surprise. As soon as they made it an All Women Shortlist it was clear it was a sitch up. They should have looked for new talent.
Selecting candidates who have lost in the past is not usually a wise decision – we saw that in the London mayoral election. Of course a few MPs do return to Westminster like Henry Bellingham and John Cryer.
I was surprised to discover after coming here to watch Derbyshire play Northants back in August (in a season that saw my county win division two of the County Championship) that the Abington ward that includes the county cricket ground comfortably elected a Conservative councillor in May 2011. It seemed to mostly consist of rows of two up, two down terraced housing of a kind that I would not expect to be home to that many Tory voters.
I suppose it’s testament to how good the Tory performance in the most recent set of local elections here was, as has been noted above.
Henry Bellingham only got back in because that seat couldnt have sustained a labour win for long, it was pretty tory to begin with and trending tory quick. I agree that selecting losers is a bad idea.
Intresting to see how the LD vote will crumble here. The 1997 result seems to suggest a tight Con / Lab marginal.
Next General Election Prediction.
The Lib Dem vote will go down significantly. More former LD votes will go to Labour than to the Conservatives. UKIP will take votes from the Conservatives.
This will result in a fairly comfortable Labour win.
(Of course there is a long time before the election and things could change.)
Sally Keeble is the Labour candidate again. How was she viewed locally?
Ref: How is Sally Keeble viewed locally?
I can only speak for myself.
I despaired when I heard S.K. was standing again.
I never voted for her and am not a great fan.
I always thought of her as a Labour person, first, second and third. I don’t think that she had much respect for her constituents or interest in their views. She seemed to think that Labour always new best.
TACTICAL VOTING ALERT.
However: I am planning to vote for her. I was born in the fifties and have never voted Labour. (Last Election I voted Lib Dem, I cannot vote Lib Dem because of the age of my children: Tuition Fees.)
I think that Labour are useless, but I have strong anti Conservative views. Therefore I will join with millions of others in voting against a party rather than casting a positive vote.
I don’t much understand the logic of your position but will spend a few minutes endeavouring to do so.
Why not vote on principle rather than what benefits you the most?
I have frequently had to vote for candidates I abhor precisely because of my political principles. In the end, if you strongly desire one party to be in government rather than the other, it’s often necessary to do that.
Andy JS.
REF: “I don’t much understand the logic of your position”.
That’s probably because it is not logical.
Also, I have not explained the background of why I will vote for a Party & Candidate I do not like.
Very briefly, I think the Conservatives are the worst of the three main parties.
Joe R.
REF: Why not vote on principle rather than what benefits you the most?
Why do you think I am voting for what benefits me the most?
If I voted for the narrow interests of my wife and myself I would vote Conservative.
However, it is not good if we are well off and our children and their generation are poor.
We’re probably going to get relatively poorer as a country whichever party is in power as hitherto developing countries like China and Brazil become wealthier in comparison. Anyone who thinks the party in power at Westminster can make an impact on global trends might need to rethink their position IMO.