Comments on: Norfolk North

By: Tory

Tory — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 08:36:37 +0000

I agree with Tim. I think that Lamb will be one of the Lib Dem survivors. At the moment, I don’t envisage him having much company but we’ll have to see.

By: LBernard

LBernard — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 08:20:15 +0000

I do agree with Tim here. Having built up a very credible majority here I cannot see the Tories taking this very easily.

But then we still have a long way to go before the next GE so it’s a bit early to start predicting who will win or lose here.

By: Barnaby Marder

Barnaby Marder — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 22:00:23 +0000

I know the Tories won control of the council here but I have to say I tend to agree with Tim. I would be surprised if Mr Lamb lost.

By: Tim Jones

Tim Jones — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 18:05:22 +0000

‘Im going to stick my neck out and say this will be one the highest LD->Tory swings around’

Why?

Surely the 2005 result where Mr Lamb turned a 483 Lib Dem majority into one of 10,606 shows that he’s very popular with his constituents, and his 12,000 majority at the last election makes this one of the Lib Dem’s safest seats

Of course one would have to assume that the Tories will pick better candidates than they managed in the last three elections, but i would have thought we’ll see far bigger swings in places like Wells, Solihull and the many South West London seats which have been completeky carved up by the boundary commision

Besides it’s a bit early to assume that the polls are going to stay the same for the next three years

Who knows, by then all those left-leaning former Lib Dems who couldn’t stomach the coalition with the Tories might actually see how much worst things would be (from their perspective) had the Tories been governing on their own

By: Joe

Joe — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 17:36:52 +0000

Im going to stick my neck out and say this will be one the highest LD->Tory swings around. Here or North Devon

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Wed, 28 Dec 2011 23:43:53 +0000

Of course Solihull was a seat Labour almost came second in 2001. The LD threat was effective because it was a pounce over a fairly short period.

How the Tories (and I) wish Labour had come second there, then the LD threat may never have been seen as credible.

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Wed, 28 Dec 2011 21:42:56 +0000

It would be interesting to see what would have happened here 1997 onwards if the Lib Dems hadn’t held up so well in 1992.
But unlike Portsmouth South and a few other seats, it doesn’t seem credible that it could have gone into the Labour column in 1997/2001.

More likely it would have fragmented opposition to the Tories and enabled them to hold on.

Too difficult to predict here – more likely LD held with a reduced majority, and Labour higher, until MP retires, but I don’t recall the boundary changes here and what’s likely.

By: Barnaby Marder

Barnaby Marder — Wed, 28 Dec 2011 21:24:11 +0000

Swanarcadian – I reckon I’d be on safe grounds to rule such a thing out, wouldn’t you? Other Norfolk seats would be a less safe bet for the most part though I can’t see Labour repeating its 1945 victory in South Norfolk in a hurry either.

By: Tory

Tory — Wed, 28 Dec 2011 20:09:32 +0000

*drastically reduced majority

By: Tory

Tory — Wed, 28 Dec 2011 20:09:03 +0000

I agree with A Cairns. I cannot see the Lib Dems losing this, though a drastically reduced is on the cards.