Norfolk North
2010 Results:
Conservative: 15928 (32.07%)
Labour: 2896 (5.83%)
Liberal Democrat: 27554 (55.48%)
UKIP: 2680 (5.4%)
Green: 508 (1.02%)
Independent: 95 (0.19%)
Majority: 11626 (23.41%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 26416 (52.6%)
Conservative: 18239 (36.3%)
Labour: 4691 (9.3%)
Other: 915 (1.8%)
Majority: 8177 (16.3%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 20909 (35.5%)
Labour: 5447 (9.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 31515 (53.4%)
UKIP: 978 (1.7%)
Other: 116 (0.2%)
Majority: 10606 (18%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 23495 (41.8%)
Labour: 7490 (13.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 23978 (42.7%)
UKIP: 608 (1.1%)
Green: 649 (1.2%)
Majority: 483 (0.9%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 21456 (36.5%)
Labour: 14736 (25.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 20163 (34.3%)
Referendum: 2458 (4.2%)
Majority: 1293 (2.2%)
Boundary changes: Previously co-terminous with North Norfolk council, the new seat loses several wards in the south-west of the district to the new Broadland seat, most notably the town of Fakenham and the Catholic shrine of Walsingham.
Profile: A long, thin rural seat, stretching along the northern coast of Norfolk from Wells-next-the-Sea to the Norfolk broads and taking in much of the Norfolk Coast area of natural beauty. The area is made up of small villages and towns, Victorian beach resorts from a time before the Beeching cuts, fishing villages and market towns. Quiet, sleepy and remote – even the largest towns like Cromer have populations under 10,000 – and, like many coastal seats, it has one of the highest proportions of elderly people of any constituency in the UK.
North Norfolk had been a Labour seat in the 1950s and 1960s but the Labour rural vote has declined and Labour`s support has largely vanished. It was a very safe Conservative seat for Ralph Howell for 27 years until 1997. He was briefly replaced by David Prior, the son of former cabinet minster Jim Prior, who managed to hold on with only a 2.2% majority in 1992 before losing the seat to the Liberal Democrats in 2001 by a wafer thin majority of 483. The marginality of the seat and the high profile Conservative candidate – the blogger, commentator and Politicos bookshop founder Iain Dale – meant the seat received much attention in 2005, but in the end Norman Lamb easily retained his seat with a majority of over 10,000.
Current MP: Norman Lamb(Liberal Democrat) born 1957. Educated at Wymondham College and Leicester University. Employment lawyer. Norwich councillor 1987-1991. Contested Norfolkl North 1992, 1997. First elected as MP for Norfolk North in 2001. PPS to Charles Kennedy 2003-2005, Lib Dem shadow secretary for the DTU 2004-2006, briefly Chief of Staff to Menzies Campbell in 2006 before becoming Lib Dem shadow health secretary in 2006 (more information at They work for you)
Trevor Ivory (Conservative) born 1978. Educated at St Andrews School, Crawley and the University of East Anglia. Solicitor, specialising in planning.
Phil Harris (Labour) Former Norwich councillor. Contested North Norfolk 2005.Norman Lamb(Liberal Democrat) born 1957. Educated at Wymondham College and Leicester University. Employment lawyer. Norwich councillor 1987-1991. Contested Norfolkl North 1992, 1997. First elected as MP for Norfolk North in 2001. PPS to Charles Kennedy 2003-2005, Lib Dem shadow secretary for the DTU 2004-2006, briefly Chief of Staff to Menzies Campbell in 2006 before becoming Lib Dem shadow health secretary in 2006 (more information at They work for you)
Andrew Boswell (Green) Trained as a biochemist and worked in the IT industry. Practicising Buddhist. Norfolk County councillor since 2005.Michael Baker (UKIP)Simon Mann (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 82155
Male: 48.2%
Female: 51.8%
Under 18: 18.2%
Over 60: 32.9%
Born outside UK: 3.2%
White: 99.2%
Mixed: 0.4%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 77.3%
Full time students: 1.4%
Graduates 16-74: 14.8%
No Qualifications 16-74: 33.3%
Owner-Occupied: 71.8%
Social Housing: 13.6% (Council: 10.7%, Housing Ass.: 2.9%)
Privately Rented: 9.7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.7%
Joe James B, I would tend to have agreed with you, however Labour are contesting virtually every seat this time. In 2007, they only fielded a handful of candidates. This is the reason for my particular interest in wards like The Raynhams, where the Lib Dems appear to be safe but there was no Labour vote when last contested.
What would you guess to happen in terms of seats?
Hmm,
forgive me but I’m finding this whole set of elections a difficult one to call
as the situation is so strange,
and I don’t want to be too presumptuous to someone who has much more local knowledge.
It did rather astonish me how quickly, and rather late, the Tories started falling down here,
a large part of the key being a big Labour vote in 1992 and 1997 – but also a Labour vote that never got into second place in those years when they made a substantial national advance.
(How the Tories must wish Labour had got into second).
I’d say the LDs will narrowly hold on, but
just a chance of NOC.
I appreciate that, and thanks for your projections.
There are quite a lot of seats (16 I think) with a Lib Dem majority in the range 100-200. Most of them (14) didn’t have a Labour candidate last time. If there’s a full slate of Labour candidates this time then quite a lot of them could be vulnerable. If the Lib Dems lost 6 of them (and made no gains elsewhere), the council would go NOC
I agree the Labour Party (and Greens) have put up a strong slate and this will worry the Lib Dems.
Surprisingly, the Tories seem not to have put up a candidate in a number of seats many of which should be on their radar – I note Happisburgh, Gaunt, High Heath, Holt x 2, North Walsham x 6, St Benet, and only 1 for 2 vacancies in Stalham.
North Walsham and Stalham may be out of reach anyway (although I suspect they’d be better standing to help Labour get a toe-hold back). There may be tacit support for UKIP in Holt (1 of 2) and St Benet (although this seems unwise). But overall, it’s highly surprising.
Lib Dems also appear to have blown one seat in a nomination balls up in Waterside ward (and are also a candidate down in Waxham but probably wouldn’t have won that).
Final Predictions:
Astley: 1 LD Hold
Briston: 1 Con GAIN from LD
Chaucer: 1 Con GAIN from LD
Corpusty: 1 Con Hold
Cromer Town: 2 Con Holds
Erpingham: 1 Con Hold
Gaunt: 1 LD Hold
Glaven Valley: 1 Con Hold
Happisburgh: 1 LD Hold
High Heath: LD Hold
Holt: 1 LD Hold and 1 LD GAIN or 1 LD Hold and 1 UKIP GAIN
Hoveton: 1 Con Hold
Lancaster North: 2 LD Holds
Lancaster South: 1 LD Hold and 1 Con GAIN from LD
Mundesley: 2 Con Holds
North Walsham East: 2 LD Holds
North Walsham North: 2 LD Holds
North Walsham West: 2 LD Holds
Poppyland: 1 Con Hold
Priory: 1 Con and 1 LD Holds
The Raynhams: 1 LD Hold
Roughton: 1 Con Hold
The Runtons: 1 Con Hold
St Benet: 1 LD Hold
Scottow: 1 Con GAIN from LD
Sheringham North: 1 LD Hold and 1 Con GAIN from LD
Sheringham South: 1 LD Hold and 1 Con GAIN from LD
Stalham: 1 LD and 1 Con Holds
Suffield Park: 2 Con Holds
Walsingham: 1 Con GAIN from LD
Waxham: 1 Con Hold
Wensum: 1 Con Hold
Worstead: 1 LD Hold
Liberal Democrats: 24-25 seats (-6 to -7)
Conservatives: 23 seats (+6)
UK Independence: 0-1 seats (n/c to +1)
Council Control: LD Majority of 2 or NOC
fascinating predictions – thanks.
Real precision there.
I guess North Walsham is where the LD strength started here.
Yes that’s excellent P. Now we know what to look out for. No Labour though???
As I understand it the Lib Dem “thing” here started in Sheringham. I’m surprised that the Tories aren’t contesting all seats in Holt which I understood to be one of their better areas.
I wouldn’t personally be surprised if Labour failed to win any seats. However, I probably know this area less than almost anywhere in England so I have nothing other than hunches to do on.
Who’s the predicted gain from in Holt? (or did P mean ‘UKIP hold’ not ‘UKIP gain’?)
Hi BT,
No I DID mean a UKIP Gain in Holt, because there is a sitting Independent who is standing down.
Also, I forgot to include Waterside, which I predict to be 1 LD Hold and 1 Con GAIN from LD.
Hope this helps.
“I guess North Walsham is where the LD strength started here”
No – North Walsham came quite late for them. They got well under 10% of the vote in the 1995 locals. They picked up North Walsham West (single member on different boundaries) on a big swing in 1999 but were still third in the larger East. They only dominated from 2003. The traditional strength was in the more naturally blue areas like Sheringham.
P’s predictions look quite sound and reasonably likely. A lot will depend on whether Labour back up a much bigger slate of candidates than in recent years with any work on the ground.
I’m pleased that most of my predictions were emulated in the final results. The whole of rural Norfolk is now Conservative blue at district level for the first time in its history. Contrary to popular belief that the council being a Conservative stronghold, North Norfolk was always an Independent or NOC council in the early days before Lib Dems’ dominance. The voters of North Norfolk really did deliver a monumental change last Thursday.
The interesting story is the Lib Dems’ claim that they actually won the popular vote, which is in fact true, however they contested more seats than the Conservatives. Had the Conservatives have stood in wards like Holt and High Heath and standing two candidates in wards like Sheringham South, their vote share would have been higher.
When I have a spare moment, I will publish figures of the parties’ performance only taking into account the wards they actually stood. This, I feel, will be more helpful for you all to analyse when you make your assessments for the Parliamentary constituency than the frontline figures.
My reference to Sheringham South is acknowledging a two-seat ward, where the Conservatives did stand two candidates, which wasn’t the case in Stalham & Sutton and Sheringham North.
P
Surely the most helpful numbers would be the total of the AVERAGE votes for each party in each ward, including multi-member ones?
I think that’s how Pete Whitehead has calculated a few on other ocnstituency threads and it seems to make sense.
Results for the 2011 North Norfolk District Elections:
Seats (change), Vote share (change)
Conservatives: 28 (+11), 31.2% (-8.7)
Liberal Democrats: 17 (-12), 37.7% (-8.3)
UKIP: 1 (n/c), 4.9% (+3.5)
Ind: 1 (+1), 1.7% (-5.7)
Lab: 0 (n/c), 19.6% (+15.8)
Grn: 0 (n/c), 5.0% (+3.7)
Vote Share Overview:
Conservatives in wards where stood: 41.6% (+1.7), Whole district: 31.2% (-8.7).
Liberal Democrats in wards where stood: 39.0% (-7.0), Whole District: 37.7% (-8.3)
Labour in wards where stood / Whole District: 19.6% (+15.8)
UKIP in wards where stood: 15.5% (+14.1), Whole District: 4.9% (+3.5)
Independents in wards where stood: 8.6% (+1.2), Whole District: 1.7% (-5.4)
Green Party in wards where stood: 7.2% (+1.3), Whole District: 5.0% (+3.7)
Although the Lib Dems won the popular vote of the whole district with 37.7% and a margin of 6.5% over the Conservatives, this is an inaccurate portrayal of the election as not all wards where contested by all parties. Their popular vote was helped in areas where the Conservatives did not field candidates, particularly in the North Walsham wards. Had the Conservatives stood in all wards, then they may have taken a lead across the district as a whole.
The clear picture is Labour achieved an impressive result in contrast to the previous election, however they did contest all wards this year as opposed to just a handful four years ago. The Conservatives saw their vote tumble across the district as a whole, but in wards they contested saw their vote increase slightly.
Fakenham overall voted for the Conservatives, although this was helped in part by a hemorrhaging Lib Dem vote which went to Labour.
Cromer was won by the Conservatives, however North Walsham remained comfortably Lib Dem. The latter would probably have been far closer and possibly resulted in one or two seats going to the Conservatives had they stood.
Sheringham remained comfortably Lib Dem, although the Conservatives did well in the south of the town, where they contested all seats in comparison to the North where only one was fielded, and noticeably improved their performance.
Excluding these large towns, the rural areas narrowly voted Conservative. With Holt excluded (where they did not stand), the party took a stronger lead.
Of course Norman Lamb’s personal vote will come into play in the next general election, which will help the Lib Dems, his majority on these figures looks set to be trimmed:
1) Labour has performed staggeringly well all over the district,
2) The Conservatives performed well where they did stand,
3) The Lib Dems shed votes.
P are you counting up all the votes cast, in other words those for all candidates in multi-member wards? If so this is not really a very effective way of calculating these things as you are effectively counting some voters 2 or 3 times and others only once, if as I assume North Norfolk has a mixture of 1, 2 and 3 member wards. This is especially so if in some wards like you mention there was only one Conservative candidate but two LD candidate in a 2 seat ward
Labour are most unfortunate to poll that many & yet win no seats. Sometimes I curse myself for being a supporter of FPTP.
In fact, looking at the results in detail, Labour were only even close to winning a seat in a solitary ward.
Amended popular vote using the Pete Whitehead formula:
Conservatives: 31.7% (-8.2)
Liberal Democrats: 35.4 (-10.6)
Labour: 17.3% (+13.5)
Green: 6.7% (+5.4)
Independent: 2.3% (-5.1)
UKIP: 6.6% (+5.2)
Barnaby Marder, your comments about Labour’s performance resulting in no seats is almost a mirror image of the Conservative party in Oxford.
In Oxford, however, the Conservatives would be in at a shot of winning about 4-5 wards, whereas Labour in North Norfolk would need quite a push to achieve a similar tally.
It just strikes me as poor targeting by Labour rather than mainly about being unlucky. It’s true that the Labour vote is not very concentrated in North Norfolk (there are clusters of promising territory in many places rather than a few big estates), but these are very small wards and it is not that difficult to pick two or three and do it properly.
Mind you, not a big advert for FPTP overall, given that the party second past the post got a majority. But there we are… no doubt the argument can be revisited in about 2045!
P
Thanks (belatedly) for all your analysis on the May elections here. Can we trouble you a bit further and ask if you can use the Pete Whitehead formula but only with wards where the parties stood candidates (i.e. the equivalent ‘PW’ figures to your 41.6%/39.0%/19.6% figures)?
I believe this would be the truest interpretation to what’s happening to voter movements in this constituency.
Many thanks.
Labour to win here in 2015 on a huge populist anti-coaltion movement riding off the back of failure to adjust British Summertime to help the tourism industry and the loss of much of the hoped-for Wind Energy investment to Humberside not North Norfolk.
31.6% swing anticipated (approx)
Well these are some amusing predictions; at least this one has some precedents, unlike the others!
As has been mentioned before, Labour held this seat for many years prior to 1970. After a 27 year process they were replaced by the LibDems as the main opposition to the Tories.
On current polls it will be interesting to see what happens to the Labour vote. Would anyone categorically rule out them winning the seat again before 2040?
I can see the Labour vote going up to 14% in 2015 here but wouldn’t predict it going higher than that.
Norman Lamb will probably remain the MP here until he retires though even if it majority is cut down to 3000 or so next time.
I agree with A Cairns. I cannot see the Lib Dems losing this, though a drastically reduced is on the cards.
*drastically reduced majority
Swanarcadian – I reckon I’d be on safe grounds to rule such a thing out, wouldn’t you? Other Norfolk seats would be a less safe bet for the most part though I can’t see Labour repeating its 1945 victory in South Norfolk in a hurry either.
It would be interesting to see what would have happened here 1997 onwards if the Lib Dems hadn’t held up so well in 1992.
But unlike Portsmouth South and a few other seats, it doesn’t seem credible that it could have gone into the Labour column in 1997/2001.
More likely it would have fragmented opposition to the Tories and enabled them to hold on.
Too difficult to predict here – more likely LD held with a reduced majority, and Labour higher, until MP retires, but I don’t recall the boundary changes here and what’s likely.
Of course Solihull was a seat Labour almost came second in 2001. The LD threat was effective because it was a pounce over a fairly short period.
How the Tories (and I) wish Labour had come second there, then the LD threat may never have been seen as credible.
Im going to stick my neck out and say this will be one the highest LD->Tory swings around. Here or North Devon
‘Im going to stick my neck out and say this will be one the highest LD->Tory swings around’
Why?
Surely the 2005 result where Mr Lamb turned a 483 Lib Dem majority into one of 10,606 shows that he’s very popular with his constituents, and his 12,000 majority at the last election makes this one of the Lib Dem’s safest seats
Of course one would have to assume that the Tories will pick better candidates than they managed in the last three elections, but i would have thought we’ll see far bigger swings in places like Wells, Solihull and the many South West London seats which have been completeky carved up by the boundary commision
Besides it’s a bit early to assume that the polls are going to stay the same for the next three years
Who knows, by then all those left-leaning former Lib Dems who couldn’t stomach the coalition with the Tories might actually see how much worst things would be (from their perspective) had the Tories been governing on their own
I know the Tories won control of the council here but I have to say I tend to agree with Tim. I would be surprised if Mr Lamb lost.
I do agree with Tim here. Having built up a very credible majority here I cannot see the Tories taking this very easily.
But then we still have a long way to go before the next GE so it’s a bit early to start predicting who will win or lose here.
I agree with Tim. I think that Lamb will be one of the Lib Dem survivors. At the moment, I don’t envisage him having much company but we’ll have to see.