Newport West
2010 Results:
Conservative: 12845 (32.34%)
Labour: 16389 (41.26%)
Liberal Democrat: 6587 (16.58%)
Plaid Cymru: 1122 (2.82%)
BNP: 1183 (2.98%)
UKIP: 1144 (2.88%)
Green: 450 (1.13%)
Majority: 3544 (8.92%)
2005 Results:
Labour: 16021 (44.8%)
Conservative: 10563 (29.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 6398 (17.9%)
Plaid Cymru: 1278 (3.6%)
Other: 1472 (4.1%)
Majority: 5458 (15.3%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 9185 (26.2%)
Labour: 18489 (52.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 4095 (11.7%)
Plaid Cymru: 2510 (7.2%)
UKIP: 506 (1.4%)
BNP: 278 (0.8%)
Majority: 9304 (26.5%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 9794 (24.4%)
Labour: 24331 (60.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 3907 (9.7%)
Plaid Cymru: 648 (1.6%)
Referendum: 1199 (3%)
Other: 323 (0.8%)
Majority: 14537 (36.2%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Paul Flynn(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Matthew Williams (Conservative) Paul Flynn(Labour) (more information at They work for you)Veronica German (Liberal Democrat) Jeff Rees (Plaid Cymru) Pippa Bartolotti (Green)Hugh Moelwyn Hughes (UKIP) Timothy Windsor (BNP)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 82731
Male: 48%
Female: 52%
Under 18: 24.5%
Over 60: 20.8%
Born outside UK: 4.6%
White: 95.4%
Black: 0.6%
Asian: 2.2%
Mixed: 1.2%
Other: 0.6%
Christian: 72.8%
Muslim: 2.2%
Full time students: 3.8%
Graduates 16-74: 19.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 30.6%
Owner-Occupied: 70.7%
Social Housing: 21.6% (Council: 16.4%, Housing Ass.: 5.1%)
Privately Rented: 4.8%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 3.3%
Hi Nick
Look at Frederick Stansfield’s comments and they all tally with my own experience as an ‘honorary South Walian’. This is genuinely NOT anto-Labour government, and my estimates are as follows:
Monmouth
Newport West
Newport East
Cardiff North
Presseli Pembrokeshire
Pembrokeshire East
Delyn
Vale of Clywd
Clywd West
Vale of Glamorgan
Possibilities….if Labour doesn’t recover
Alyn and Deeside
Cardiff South
Cardiff West
Gower
Clywd South
Swansea West
and finally…Montgomeryshire (we need some comments from residents of Welshpool and Newtown) in order to verify Lembit Opik’s position.
Thanks Neil
I forgot to mention Aberconwy!
Tories polled 2.5% higher than Labour in Newport West in the european elections having gained 27.7% nationaly to Labours 15.7%. Labour polled simular in terms of share of the vote here as in Pontypridd, Caerphilly and higher than in Cardiff west and Cardiff south. It looks as though if things stay the same that it will be a close battle between Labour and the Conservatives here as tories polled only 1% less than the national average.
Hi Jamie
I agree with your sentiments. Labour’s chances of holding on rests with how loyal Labour voters are to Paul Flynn. With only a 1% below national average swing to the Tories in this constituency I think that Mr Flynn will be enjoying a well deserved retirement. I think that he has been a reasonable constituency MP, but I also think that Labour’s time is up in South Wales.
This seat could be one of the closest battles any where. If the Tory campaign is good, they could take it.
Paul Flynn is raising his profile again – he has stated on BBC news that he wants the British army out of Afganistan and is politely asking Mr Brown to go.
Mr Flynn is a ‘savvy’ politician and he won’t go down without a major fight – good luck to him, but I still think that he is a gonner next time around.
He has also severly criticised John Hutton
If there are any local conservative activists out there, can I suggest that you concentrate your leafletting in your own seat – I live in negbouring St Mellons and am always getting leaflets for Newport West and Marshfield. Time to buy an electoral map????
Its a mark of how important Conservatives feel the people of St Mellons are, Penddu!
Labour needs every vote that it can get in Newport West, Cardiff South and Penarth and Cardiff West. They need to stop sulking and get campaigning in South Wales…and fast!!
I thought Penddu was joking about lost tories until i had two stop me in St. Mellons asking the way to a street. I told them i had never heard of it, when we looked at the map they had it was of Marshfield they were in St. Mellons 1.5 miles away.
It is not a good sign for the tories. Penddu is right buy some maps. !!
I wish to ask the same questions I put on the Vale of Clwyd thread which I know is a long way away from Newport W.
Now that Wales has a new First Minister, is Labour likely to get a boost in Wales from that? Any polling evidence in Wales of this please?
Thanking you
Most people in Wales don’t even know who the new First Minister is!!, he’s not as high profile as Rhodri Morgan was…plus if i remember correctly Rhodri Morgan and quite high approval ratings before he finished, ratings Brown would probably kill for!!
I can’t see there being a Carwyn Jones bounce he doesn’t seem as likeable as Rhodri Morgan.
That said i’ve not seen any polling evidence so thats just my opinion.
As for Newport West, yes Labour will have to fight hard for every vote and it will be very close, but in my gut i feel Paul Flynn will hold hes like an institution here he’s been around so long!
To peter election follower. My own feelings are that public services in Wales have NOT improved over the last ten years. The NHS in wales is under performing. My feeling is that the Labour vote will stay at home in vast numbers on polling day.
Ieuan yes and he’s a bit of a rebel too which I think will be helpful in this election.
Rhodri Morgan managed to disprove the saying that all political careers end in failure. Having been for a time one of his constituents, and indeed Constituency Party members, I am aware that he was exceptional in his ability, his humanity and his dedication to Wales. It is not reasonable to expect his successors to match him.
The polling evidence in Wales is problematic as there are not many polls. In addition, the swing may be very different in North Wales and South Wales, and in rural areas and Valleys seats as compared to the urban seats of South Wales.
This seat, and even so others Neil Turner mentions e.g. in Cardiff, are the zone where until recently they looked vulnerable for Labour, but now look possible for that party to save. However, there is some evidence that the Conservatives are doing particularly well in Wales, perhaps as South Wales seats come more into line with English ones (e.g. around Bristol) with similar demographics. So I wouldn’t take seats like this for granted.
Neil is quite right. If Labour, and indeed the Tories, want to win this seat they need to have a confident “go for it” attitude and campaign like mad (not forgettting Obama style IT networking).
“Rhodri Morgan managed to disprove the saying that all political careers end in failure”
Well, if you count managing to hold onto the leadership despite leading Labour to its worst ever election defeats in Wales, and then going at just the right time before things got any worse!
I suppose Morgan left in positive triumph compared to the likely fate of his hapless successor, Caerwyn Jones.
I think this seat, along with Birmingham Edgbaston, are examples of seats which shouldn’t go tory; but if they do will give Cameron a workin majority.
The Voodoo Spirits aren’t telling much about this seat.
The recent earthquake in my hometown has damaged the voodambiance and thrown my political predictions off balance.
Me-dis ce que tu sais âmes en peine!
I think Paul Flynn will have every chance in holding Newport West even in the event of a 9 or ten 10 point Tory lead on polling day. His personal popularity should help him win the seat. He has been a vocal critic of New Labour and is always prepared to put his party allegiance to one side when voting in parliament.
Flynn is toast….expect to see results in South Wales go badly for Labour irrespective of the National picture.
Having looked at information on this seat this afternoon, i think Labour will hold it but the majority will be greatly reduced.
It could be very interesting in next years assembly elections.
I think that a lot of staunch Labour supporters will be disappointed with the result here. Labour will win Newport East, but but not in Newport West.
My predictions about Labour’s demise back in February are even more true today. The budget was a disaster for South Wales and the econmic recession is still in this region (look at the unemplyment figures and reduced salaries).
As I have said previously, I like Paul Flynn, but he saw the writing on the wall last year by calling for Brown to go.
Timothy Windsor is standing here for the BNP.
Lab Hold= 1,000 maj
We hear a lot about policies at election time but locally I like to know why candidates think they should earn our vote. We know they will spout the diatribes provided from their respective HQs but what have they achieved for themselves? Why are they so shy about their life achievements?
It seems so typical of the last crop of MP’s and the 2010 hopefuls that they’ve little or no experience of proper employment. As the average age of candidates drops alarmingly one has to wonder where work and life experience is going to come from to run the country with any credibility. Not that age in itself is any sort of guarantee.
Matthew Williams (Conservative) has an online profile. It shows he went from Monmouth school to university and has been a “political advisor” since 1996. Interestingly only Labour and UKIP has the same candidate in Newport West as in 2005. The others do not figure for 2010. Flynn (Labour) has been the sitting MP since 1987. He worked in the steel industry for the best part of 30 years and was also a councillor for 10 years. He became a political researcher for the three years before his election. Hugh Moelwyn Hughes (UKIP) is retired and states he “practiced Law in the community”. What is that?
The Lib Dems have put forward Veronica German who was a teacher until 2 years ago and now works as Constituency Administrator and is a councillor so appears to be in politics full time. Pippa Bartolotti (Greens) states (rather vaguely) that she has worked in business from the fashion industry in London, to electronics and software development and latterly worked “with” the WDA. Now working for COEXIST, whoever they are. Jeff Rees (Plaid) appears to have been a full time local councillor for two years, before that – who knows?
Our politics would be better for knowing the achievements of those who seek our votes.
Lab Hold
Maj 1600
Awwwwh Neily…..Con gain by 1000
There is only so much you can put on a Royal Mail approved flier or a 100 word bio, but for the sake of clarity, I shall give you some more information here. Mike, You are right to ask what exactly people have done in the past because it is those experiences which help to guide their decisions for the future.
I worked in the Glastonbury sheepskin industry in 1973 – 5, then the fashion business in the West End of London 1975 1986 (primarily as a designer, but also in management) Very competitive. In that time I started Haywards (selling to Harvey Nicholls and the like) – and and worked for 2 other companies – Charlie Girl and Marba Manufacturing. All very successful. I then started Encrypta Electronics (employing 25 people and sub contracting to AB Electronics among other local businesses) and moved to South Wales with my young family. I joined La’viva Ltd which was set up to offer various therapy equipment to stroke survivors, both directly and via the NHS.Later I took a directorship at Toucan Systems.
I am a schools speaker for Amnesty International and have been a volounteer for various organisations throughout my life – most recently for Urban Circle in Newport.
I have done a few other things, but don’t want to bore you to death!
COEXIST is an organisation dedicated to social, economic and environmental justice. http://www.coexister.blogspot.com
If you would like to know anything else – just ask
Pippa
I am so sad there is no candidate in my constituacy which I can be in tune with so i am unable to vote the candidate i would like to see is not avaiable
Lab maj 1,000
Lab Hold 1,000-1,250
It’s been said there’s Labour support throughout this seat but the same could be said of the Tories. In the local elections, even in the most working class wards like Gaer and Pill, the latter of which should be as “red” as they come, the Conservatives were very close behind Labour.
Compare that to situation in Newport East where the Tories hardly get a look in. Only Langstone is a stronghold and I’m guessing Magor and Rogiet are as well, although I don’t have the results for Monmouthshire to hand.
LAB HOLD
Below-average swing to the Tories here. Flynn is surely unlikely to stand again but he has given his successor a decent chance of another win.
Boundary changes proposed by the welsh electoral reform society argue that the Graig and marshland areas of Newport west should be merged in to a larger Caerphilly constituency with Malpas and Caerleon merged in to Torfaen. This would leave Newport with one MP and would make Newport a safe labour seat.
It would, but of course that isn’t an official proposal in any way.
Thats true but as far as Newport is concerned, it would be hard to see how boundary changes would impact negatively against Labour. If the west of Newport West and the east of Newport East were to be shifted into other constituencies then Newport would be solid Labour.
I would find it very unlikely for the Tories to gain Newport West next time even with the departure of Paul Flynn. The result here last time could probably be attributed to the Flynn factor but maybe Labour voters came back to the fold as they feared a Tory victory.
There was a defection from a Plaid Cymru councillor representing the Tredeger Park ward to the Tories about 2 weeks ago. It would seem inevitable that Labour would win this ward back next year. If the defector runs for the Tories in Tredeger Park he will get hammered.
Why?
Some councillors have large personal votes!
I agree with the above comment but there is no way the Tories can ever take Tredeger Park. Their vote is so insignificant in that ward that even a councillor who attracts alot of personal votes will not be able to hold it for the Tories here.
Was he the sole Plaid Cllr?
He I believe is the sole Plaid councillor on Newport City Council. Labour will regain Newport at next years local elections no trouble.
I’m surprised Flynn has announced his intention to seek to stand again, under a new seat. He’ll be 78 next month, although he looks younger. I assume Ann Clwyd will retire to leave Bryant in in a new Rhonnda seat.