Newport East
2010 Results:
Conservative: 7918 (22.99%)
Labour: 12744 (36.99%)
Liberal Democrat: 11094 (32.21%)
Plaid Cymru: 724 (2.1%)
BNP: 1168 (3.39%)
UKIP: 677 (1.97%)
Socialist Labour: 123 (0.36%)
Majority: 1650 (4.78%)
2005 Results:
Labour: 14389 (45.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 7551 (23.7%)
Conservative: 7459 (23.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 1221 (3.8%)
Other: 1205 (3.8%)
Majority: 6838 (21.5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 7246 (23.2%)
Labour: 17120 (54.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 4394 (14%)
Plaid Cymru: 1519 (4.9%)
UKIP: 410 (1.3%)
Other: 593 (1.9%)
Majority: 9874 (31.6%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 7958 (21.4%)
Labour: 21481 (57.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 3880 (10.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 721 (1.9%)
Referendum: 1267 (3.4%)
Other: 1951 (5.2%)
Majority: 13523 (36.3%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Jessica Morden(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Dawn Parry (Conservative) Jessica Morden(Labour) (more information at They work for you)Ed Townsend (Liberal Democrat) Fiona Cross (Plaid Cymru) David J Rowlands (UKIP) Keith Jones (BNP)Liz Screen (Socialist Labour) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 69820
Male: 48.3%
Female: 51.7%
Under 18: 26.1%
Over 60: 20.7%
Born outside UK: 3.7%
White: 95.8%
Black: 0.4%
Asian: 2.6%
Mixed: 1%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 71.5%
Muslim: 2.5%
Full time students: 2.6%
Graduates 16-74: 14.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 35.2%
Owner-Occupied: 72.4%
Social Housing: 20.3% (Council: 15.7%, Housing Ass.: 4.6%)
Privately Rented: 4.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 4.3%
Having a load of posters up in Lib Dem council wards doesn’t mean anything – many more people live in the labour wards and the fact that they haven’t put any posters up doesn’t mean that they won’t go out and vote. This especially tru in my area where the council (tory/lib dem coalition) seem to be doing everything they can to mess things up. Some of the roads around us look like the face of the moon and that’s after they have been filled in!!! Tactical votes would just let the torys in again which would be teribble. Lab hold.
Fair enough Sally. But sad as though this may sound, I have driven around the whole of the consituency and itsthe same everywhere! I was desperate for Blair to lose in 1997 and when one sees enough posters and placards in one area (it wasn’t the case last time) then I just sense that something is happening in this seat.
I live in the Victoria ward and I’ve noticed alot of Lib Dem posters too but I think what is more important is the amount of leaflets, letters etc. they have been sending to everyone.
I’ve recieved more leaflets and letters from the Lib Dems than any other party. I even got a phone call from them! It was only this morning that I got leaflets in the post (delievered by Royal Mail) from Plaid, BNP and the Socialist Labour Party. I’ve recieved a few leaflets from the Tories, more so than Labour.
My brother who lives in Lliswerry told me that last week he got a visit from Jessica Morden and then the other day he got a visit from Ed Townsend. it turns out that he’s been getting more Labour leaflets than I have, it got me thinking that maybe Labour are concentrating on strong Labour wards.
I already had a visit from Ed Townsend but not from Jessica Morden or the Troy Candidate. But i hear that she lives in Bristol and/or is a North Somerset Councillor? I don’t know which one is true but it would explain why I haven’t seen her around. With all the things the Lib Dems are doing I wouldn’t be suprised if they do win this seat.
The taxpayers and voters of Newport East are a generous lot – keeping Jessica in food (£400 a month, no receipts, of course) and many luxuries whilst also funding her while she was on ‘maternity leave’ (though she did write to the Fees Office to tell them that she’d still be claiming whilst on leave) is a marvellous gesture, particularly as she doesn’t attaend parliament much.
Does anyons need two doormats, dozens of sheets, water filters, water coolers, etc., etc to carry out their duties – Jessica appears to but you, the lovely voters of Newport East, support her luxury lifestyle.
I still don’t understand the food expenses, surely that should not be something you are entitled to claim for.
Peter, are people angry in Newport about her expenses, could this be a Lib Dem gain actually due to this?
Err…if someone isn’t going to vote for a particular party, then why have a placard in your garden??
Watch this space
I went to town shopping today and noticed a large crowd of people outside the river front theatre with Lib Dem placards. Seemed like I went past at the right time because Nick Clegg was there so i mingled in with the crowd, some saturday shoppers but mostly Lib Dem supporters/activists etc. I have to admit though, there must have been around 100 people there.
I also found out from one of the supporters that this was his second visit in couple of months, last time he came down to visit Fair Oak nursery in Maindee and also to open up the Lib Dem Newport East Campaign HQ. I didn’t go into the theatre with the rest of the crowd to listen to his speech, I still had shopping to do!
Why is Clegg targetting Newport? Do the Libdems seriously see this as a potential win?
I got very confused at the weekend. Brown in Sunderland – if there’s a threat there Lab are in deep trouble; Clegg in Newport – surely the triumph of optimism over reality; and Cameron in Oxfordshire – surely nothing to worry about there. Then I remembered that’s Cameron’s home territory, so it made a bit more sense.
All the main parties take a lot of private polls and the leaders who are their main assets would not be where they are unless their campaign managers thought they needed to be there.
Especially the last weekend before the poll.
*giggle*
I notice that the BNP have made runs with a PA system on 3 consecutive days.
Purplepots
Scroll up a bit to see why NC has been here. Lib Dems came close in the 2007 Welsh Assembly elections and have a strong local campaign team.
I’m certain that Politicians have access to more data than the pollsters (e.g. Canvassing returns). Brown was in Sunderland because he is worried that a 14% Lib Dem swing might make one or two seats in this region close. Clegg needed to regain momentum in Wales after polls show his party slipping backwards (Newport East or Swansea West are his two best bets). Cameron probably wanted to be home for one night over the weekend to be with his kids!
There are always a couple of ‘iconic’ constituencies. I’ll never forget Basildon in 1992. This year places such as Swindon and Bolton are key battle grounds. Also, in the USA, Ohio is always seen as a key swing state and you will always find the candidates spending lots of time there.
Politicians don’t have that much additional data. Canvass returns and postal ballot verification can give you a reasonable indication whether it’s a landslide for or against you, but not much more than that and people still hideously misread it. I recall in the 2001 election a Tory bigwig amusing journos at Central Office by coming out when it was clear the election was going badly to say “just wait until the Torbay result comes in – that’ll show we’re set to make gains against the Liberals” only to be told that a Lib Dem majority of 7,000 odd had just been called.
In any event, leaders’ visits aren’t entirely driven by how close the canvass returns look. They have more of an eye on how it looks in the media than the impact on votes on the ground. So they will go to some safe seats where they are guaranteed a warm reception from decent sized crowds (good for telly) and to some hopeless seats which are symbolically important (e.g. a Tory going to an inner city seat where they have little chance but which sends the message of being inclusive etc).
Indeed, many campaign organisers will tell you they try to avoid having party big guns visiting them – that it distracts from the important work on the ground for limited local benefit.
LAB HOLD
Lib Dems seem to be working very hard in Magor.
Letter in the post every day for the last 2 weeks (getting a bit annoying to be honest), and canvassers been around too.
No sign of Labour – think they take Newport East for granted.
Couple of leaflets from Conservatives but think their candidate is very weak. Not local, not her first choice of constituency, and the LibDem literature makes great play of this.
Think tactical voting could get the LibDems in, bu will likely be close.
Close result but Lab hold as predicted by most. Best candidate for us in Newport. Nationally it’s tin hat time with Dai Cameron in charge!
I almost got it correct Sally! Still, at least we seem to have been saved from the same fate as Greece. The denial about our perilous financial state as a nation still astounds me.
This seat was won by Labour because the Tories were claiming they could win. This encouraged Labour voters to come out to vote. It also split the anti Labour vote.
At next years assembly elections there will now be a clear message for voters of Labour or Lib Dem. The Tories cannot interfere next time.
The Lib Dems can’t be trusted in Wales ever again. The first chance they get they jump into bed with tories who as we all know are no friends of Wales. The people of Wales aren’t stupid and will make them pay at the next election.
Expect to see the Lib Dem vote crushed at the next election in Newport East. I dont believe voters who have switched from Labour to the Lib Dems in recent elections will stay with the Lib Dems after their support for the cuts agenda. Voters in this constituency along with Merthyr and Pontypridd are naturaly anti Tory and will revert back to Labour.