New Forest East
2010 Results:
Conservative: 26443 (52.85%)
Labour: 4915 (9.82%)
Liberal Democrat: 15136 (30.25%)
UKIP: 2518 (5.03%)
Green: 1024 (2.05%)
Majority: 11307 (22.6%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 23531 (49.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 15680 (33.1%)
Labour: 5711 (12%)
Other: 2497 (5.3%)
Majority: 7851 (16.6%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 21975 (48.6%)
Labour: 5492 (12.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 15424 (34.1%)
UKIP: 2344 (5.2%)
Majority: 6551 (14.5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 17902 (42.4%)
Labour: 9141 (21.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 14073 (33.4%)
UKIP: 1062 (2.5%)
Majority: 3829 (9.1%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 21053 (42.9%)
Labour: 12161 (24.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 15838 (32.3%)
Majority: 5215 (10.6%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Julian Lewis(Conservative) (more information at They work for you)
Julian Lewis(Conservative) (more information at They work for you)Peter Sopowski (Labour) Terry Scriven (Liberal Democrat) Former Colonel in the Royal Military police. Beverley Golden (Green)Peter Day (UKIP)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 89471
Male: 48.7%
Female: 51.3%
Under 18: 22.1%
Over 60: 23.3%
Born outside UK: 4.4%
White: 98.7%
Asian: 0.3%
Mixed: 0.6%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 77.5%
Full time students: 2.1%
Graduates 16-74: 17.4%
No Qualifications 16-74: 24.8%
Owner-Occupied: 80.7%
Social Housing: 10.8% (Council: 6.5%, Housing Ass.: 4.2%)
Privately Rented: 5.6%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 5.5%
This was basically ‘Romsey & Waterside’ prior to 1997.
Apparently, there was a huge rumpus here in 2005 when the Labour candidate told people to vote Lib Dem.
As usual, that sort of tactic backfired, and both of them did badly, whilst the Tories did extremely well.
The two New Forest seats are very different, West is the outsiders image of the forest while this one is largely a Southampton suburb.
I can’t help feeling that this is an area where the Lib Dems should have worked with more conviction – they had a decent local government base and a significant Labour vote to squeeze. Surely now their chance has gone. Maybe they’ve been too busy keeping the Tories out in Romsey.
As south Hampshire is one of their strongest areas the Lib Dems should be doing much better here – especially given the unsavory nature of the current MP – whose five minutes of fame came in the late 90s at a Tory Party Conference when on ending a Europhobic speech, he and a band of supporters went to heckle and flick penuts at Michael Heseltine who was in an adjacent room
Heseltine was saying that it would be folly for the Conservatives to move out to the right, following the 97 defeat – which in hindsight looks like a pretty good prediction of exactly what did happen
I know it was thirty years ago but I’m still amazed at how few people link Julian Lewis’ attitudes then to his approach now. I have to say I actually have quite a bit of a regard for him; anyone attacked by that malign specimen of humanity Simon Regan can’t be all bad.
The Lib Dems have selected Terry Scriven here.
Anyone who thought the BBC Parliament channel was
boring did not see the adjounment debate last night.
(transcript on they work for you link above).One of the
strangest speeches for a very long time I think,nearly fell of
my chair laughing!!. Will it all end in tears before bedtime
one wonders.
Oh good lord.
I truely hope – and have asked the question on LibDemVoice Member Forum – that Mr Scriven is removed as PPC.
My question is what is the difference between what Mr Scriven is doing to Julian Lewis (according to Julian Lewis of course!), and what Ian Oakley did to Sal Brinton (less the hate mail)?
Well the difference is presumably just that – hate mail, vandalism, obscene photos in the mail… all that sort of thing
But the basic premise was that Ian Oakley spent his time smearing Sal Brinton, so is this case the same principle, but more subtle tactics?
Just before the speaker election I was watching the Daily Politics show where they were discussing the candidates. They were talking about one, can’t remember his name, but one of the guests commented that he would only get 1 vote, from his “weirdo sidekick” Julian Lewis.
I’ve contacted the guy quite a few times, (using the excellent http://www.writetothem.com site), about pro democracy issues, Lords reform, voting reform etc. and each time, although polite, he disagrees fundamentally with me. The same has happened to my wife when she contacts him with regard to animal rights issues.
I think he derives most of his support from the forest proper, whereas we live in Totton, a much more mixed and less affluent town that is basically a suburb of Southampton.
“I think he derives most of his support from the forest proper, whereas we live in Totton, a much more mixed and less affluent town that is basically a suburb of Southampton.”
But surely, the population of “Forest proper” in this seat is considerably less than your area – the Waterside – including Totton and Eling, Marchwood, Hythe Dibden, Dibden Purlieu, Fawley, Hardley etc, all of which has been, and I imagine still is, prime Lib Dem territory?
Euro results for New Forest District:
C – 19,717 (36.7%)
UKIP – 12,279 (22.9%)
LD – 7,720 (14.4%)
Green – 5,559 (10.3%)
BNP – 2,217 (4.1%)
Lab – 2,198 (4.1%)
Eng Dem – 1,143 (2.1%)
The fact that Labour was beaten by the BNP was more down to a very poor result for Labour rather than a particularly good result for the BNP. It is surprising how little support the government of the day seems to have in some parts of the country. I think the Conservative vote usually stayed above 5% in places like Glasgow and south Wales valley seats even at the height of their unpopularity.
Labour also managed less than 5% in Woking, South Holland, Ribble Valley, Gosport, Wealden, Teignbridge, and maybe worst of all, Cornwall.
Which seats have included Beaulieu?
Before 1974 what is now New Forest District Council was a single constituency.
Between 1974 and 1983, the West of the New Forest was combined with Christchurch (previously part of Bournemouth East & Christchurch) to form Christchurch & Lymington (53% of this seat had been New Forest).
The remainder New Forest continued as New Forest.
Then in 1983 the New Forest Constituency was divided as follows -
40276 to Romsey & Waterside
33833 to the New New Forest
7307 to Christchurch
Christchurch & Lymington was also divided as follows -
29728 to the New New Forest
26815 remained in Christchurch
———————————————————
So in many respects what is now New Forest East was the resurrected 1974 – 1983 New Forest and what is now New Forest West is the successor to the 1983 -1997 New Forest.
I note by the way, in the light of Doktor B’s comments last year, that Terry Scriven is still there.
And the CAPTCHA thing is back!
Thank you to Peter Crerar for his explanation, but it seems somewhat complicated to me – could Pete Whitehead simplify it for me please, likewise my query on the New Forest W thread?
Thank you to Peter Crerar for his explanation, but it seems somewhat complicated to me – could Pete Whitehead simplify it for me please, likewise my query on the New Forest West thread?
I thought Peter’s description of the various boundary reviews was both useful and quite easy to follow, but to answer your specific question, Beaulieu has been in New Forest East since 1997 and before that was in the seat named New Forest under its various different forms
Which seats have included Lyndhurst, Minstead, and Totton and Eling? (The latter sounds like it is a ward, but is in fact a town and civil parish)
Yes I’ve wondered about Totton myself. Over to you Pete!
Cons Hold= 13,000 maj
Con Hold
Maj 12 100
…No, here we go, fewer than 30 comments, is THIS the least popular article on UKP…..?
Con maj 8,500
I have a feeling that this one may be quite close. At the last election the impression I got from the media was that it was quite tightly fought but ended with a pretty conclusive victory for Dr Lewis. Quite bad-tempered as I recall. This seemed to settle matters.
In the changed circumstances Dr Lewis may find himself under pressure again.
Con 7,000
CON HOLD
A good result for Julian Lewis.
Up to a 52.8% share, Lib Dems down to a 30.3% share.
An 11,307 vote majority (22.5%)
Cllr Weeks (Totton N) has defected from the LDs to the Greens.
The number of councillors defecting is now getting a bit out of hand isn’t it? I feel like Lancs Observer is reporting some new defection several times a week now!
Shaun – there are many I miss. There have been 200 going Indy and 80 leaving the LDs over the past year.
How many LD councillors have defected to Labour since 2010? Must be a reasonable number now.
Lancs Obs, could you possibly give a breakdown of where the 80 have gone to (I can think of several to the Green Party – I suspect Barnaby’s lot will have got more, though)? Do you have a website/blog where these defections are reported, or do I just have to keep an eye out for postings by you on ukpr?