Newcastle upon Tyne North
2010 Results:
Conservative: 7966 (18.13%)
Labour: 17950 (40.85%)
Liberal Democrat: 14536 (33.08%)
BNP: 1890 (4.3%)
UKIP: 1285 (2.92%)
Green: 319 (0.73%)
Majority: 3414 (7.77%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 20012 (49.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 13238 (33%)
Conservative: 5771 (14.4%)
Other: 1092 (2.7%)
Majority: 6774 (16.9%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 6022 (15.7%)
Labour: 19224 (50%)
Liberal Democrat: 12201 (31.7%)
Other: 997 (2.6%)
Majority: 7023 (18.3%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 7424 (20.4%)
Labour: 21874 (60.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 7070 (19.4%)
Majority: 14450 (39.7%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 8793 (19.4%)
Labour: 28125 (62.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 6578 (14.5%)
Referendum: 1733 (3.8%)
Majority: 19332 (42.7%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Catherine McKinnell (Labour) Born Denton. Educated at Sacred Heart Comprehensive and Edinburgh University. Employment solicitor.
Stephen Parkinson (Conservative) Born 1983, North Shields. Educated at Cambridge University. Author and think tank director.Catherine McKinnell (Labour) Born Denton. Educated at Sacred Heart Comprehensive and Edinburgh University. Employment solicitor.
Ron Beadle (Liberal Democrat) born 1966. Educated at Westminster City London and the LSE. Reader in Business Ethics at Northumbria University. Gateshead councillor since 1996. Contested Newcastle North in 2005, Gateshead East & Washington West 2001, Sedgefield 1997, Gateshead East 1992. 
Anna Heyman (Green) Ian Proud (UKIP)Terry Gibson (BNP) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 86933
Male: 48.2%
Female: 51.8%
Under 18: 20.8%
Over 60: 22.5%
Born outside UK: 3.4%
White: 97.6%
Black: 0.3%
Asian: 1%
Mixed: 0.6%
Other: 0.6%
Christian: 77.5%
Muslim: 0.7%
Full time students: 7.7%
Graduates 16-74: 15.8%
No Qualifications 16-74: 33.9%
Owner-Occupied: 70.4%
Social Housing: 21.7% (Council: 11.5%, Housing Ass.: 10.2%)
Privately Rented: 4.8%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 7.4%
James, why do you think Labour vote will hold up better here than elsewhere, bearing in mind Doug Henderson is standing down and Labour have just 2 councillors in the seat
I don’t think Labour will hold up better than elsewhere, Matt. I think the 2005 result was disastrous for this seat and, despite this, I think the Labour share will decline marginally next year – though not by as much as others appear to expect. My assertion about the majority will be borne out by the change in where the shares of the opposition vote will fall.
James
“You obviously haven’t been up the West Road recently”: are you trying to indicate a sudden influx of ethnic minority or East Europeans? My memory of the constituency was just as the 2001 census demographics show: miniscule ethnic minority population. If, as I suspect, Benjamin is right and this isn’t fertile territory for the BNP, it seems to me that it will be harder for the LDs than if the BNP were taking votes from Labour.
Matt
Perhaps having a sitting MP defending a constituency will turn out to be a disadvantage at the coming General Election? This could happen if any personal vote/vote based on having been a good constituency MP is outweighed by a ‘kick the rascals out’ sentement that doesn’t discriminate between MPs who have had their fingers in the till and those who haven’t.
My point was that the Elswick/Arthurs Hill/Westgate Road areas – neighbourhoods approximately ten minutes outside this seat and at the very least one-third Asian – are areas that fit Ben’s rather vivid description of a typical BNP Area (“but they know there’s an area ten minutes drive away where you can buy plaintain”). Not that I’m expecting there will be a substantial BNP vote here, though I suspect it will nudge deposit-saving territory.
James,
OK, so you were talking about parts of Central constituency, but the stats for that constituency (White: 94.1%, Black: 0.4%,
Asian: 3.2%, Mixed: 0.9%) just don’t fit with the sort of shares you are talking about even for a relatively small part of the constit. OK, they are the parts of the city with the most non-white residents, but they have been for decades: are you really claiming that there has been such a big influx since 2001?
Ben, according to the ONS in 2008 the ethnic make-up of the City of Newcastle is almost 10% non-white, and about 6% South Asian, virtually all of which I would reckon is located in the areas above listed, within the Newcastle Central seat. In other words, there is a very substantial chunk of ethnic population, presumably numbering between 15,000 and 20,000, the kind of place where one might indeed buy plaintain, situated about 10 minutes from the heartlands of this, the Newcastle North seat.
And for the record, if the 2011 census reflects the reality, I think there will have been a massive increase in the BME percentages, and it will be no surprise to learn that the non-white population in the UK is above 12 per cent. Not that the figures will actually show the populations to be that high.
The Greens have also selected a woman called Anna Heyman as their candidate for Ncl North
I would be interested to know if anyone has received any communications from Labour as of now.
They have gone out.
And I’m sure through the right doors in the right wards!
I live in Central and got Ron Beadle’s leaflet, and a friend in North got Greg’s(when he was still standing)
This seat could be interesting. There is clearly a predicament for the Lib Dems as to which Newcastle seat to target. The problem could be that they go for both and get none.
The same situation happened in Islington at the last election. They ended up winning neither Islington seat.
If i was them i would pick this seat. Tactical voting could be important here if tories want to get rid of Labour they will probably know by election day that the Lib Dems are the challengers and how to get rid of the Labour MP.
This in my opinion could be to close to call.
The BNP have got a candidate in place in Newcastle Central, are they likely to stand in this seat?
Ken Booth is standing for the BNP and they are planning a candidate in every council seat in the constituency.
Sorry, thought it was a strange post I was replying to. Misreading Central for North. Would be surprised if they didn’t stand for GE but would be surprised if they stood in the Gosforth wards locally.
Well after seeing Catherine McKinnell on the Politics Show today, the Lib Dems have every reason to be terrified of her shear intellectual brilliance, pose under pressure and ready wit….
I cannot work out if the previous post was ironic or serious
Irony – To greet the surviving member of a famous comedy duo….
Lab Hold= 2,000 maj
Lab Hold
Maj 5200
Terry Gibson standing for BNP
LD maj 250
This will be tight. High turnout = Labour win. Low turnout = Lib Dem win (with massive swing)
Large number of postal votes = LD gain.
I think the Lib Dems have more chance of winning here than Labour has of retaining Newcastle Central.
LD gain.
High student population will make this a LibDem gain.
Very risky to bet on this one. Almost inevitably recount.
Gut feeling that as this a LD tareget, they should take by 1%
I think the LDs are starting to recede now. LAB HOLD
I thought the LDs could come very close here,
maybe even take it.
A Tory revival helped kill that off,
and Labour are clearly too well supported when push comes to shove for the LDs to win.
This was the LDs’ chance & with first-time incumbency, if she does her job well, McKinnell should increase her majority next time.
and the government cuts will harm seats like this much more than the average seat and other marginals in the south.
AV could help the LibDems in Newcastle.
How would reduction in the number of MPs be likely to affect boundaries in Newxastle, and elsewhere in Tyne and Wear?
Given that Nick Brown is sewing up the post of Chief Whip until the next election, it is a fair bet that if AV and a reduction in the number of seats happens for the next election a safe seat will be created for him, whatevey the implications for this seat.
Catherine McKinnell was appointed Shadow Solicitor General by Ed Miliband last month.
Sir William Elliott, Conservative MP for this seat from 1957 to 1983, died on 20 May aged 90.
Little or no connection between old and new Newcastle North.
Definitely in the present Newcastle North, Labour gained a Lib Dem council seat last night, though it was hardly convincing with very high votes for independent/other candidates. Here’s the result :
Lab 1106 (33.2; -3.3)
Ind 883 (26.5; +26.5)
It’s Time To Put Newcastle First 532 (16.0; +16.0)
LD 492 (14.8; -18.3)
Con 240 (7.2; -17.1)
BNP 81 (2.4; -3.8)
Majority 223
Turnout not known
Lab gain from LD
Percentage change is since May 2010.
Although the Labour share is down, of course they have much more to cheer than the other 2 main parties. Clearly the independents have taken a huge dollop of Tory & LD votes but have taken quite a few from Labour too.
The Independent who came second was of course the sitting councillor, elected in 2007 as a LD
Ah thanks, hadn’t clocked that. That explains the result a bit more.