Newcastle upon Tyne North
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 20012 (49.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 13238 (33%)
Conservative: 5771 (14.4%)
Other: 1092 (2.7%)
Majority: 6774 (16.9%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 6022 (15.7%)
Labour: 19224 (50%)
Liberal Democrat: 12201 (31.7%)
Other: 997 (2.6%)
Majority: 7023 (18.3%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 7424 (20.4%)
Labour: 21874 (60.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 7070 (19.4%)
Majority: 14450 (39.7%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 8793 (19.4%)
Labour: 28125 (62.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 6578 (14.5%)
Referendum: 1733 (3.8%)
Majority: 19332 (42.7%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Doug Henderson(Labour) Will stand down at the next election (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Stephen Parkinson (Conservative) Born 1983, North Shields. Educated at Cambridge University. Author and think tank director.
Catherine McKinnell (Labour) Born Denton. Educated at Sacred Heart Comprehensive and Edinburgh University. Employment solicitor.
Ron Beadle (Liberal Democrat) born 1966. Educated at Westminster City London and the LSE. Reader in Business Ethics at Northumbria University. Gateshead councillor since 1996. Contested Newcastle North in 2005, Gateshead East & Washington West 2001, Sedgefield 1997, Gateshead East 1992. Anna Heyman (Green)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 86933
Male: 48.2%
Female: 51.8%
Under 18: 20.8%
Over 60: 22.5%
Born outside UK: 3.4%
White: 97.6%
Black: 0.3%
Asian: 1%
Mixed: 0.6%
Other: 0.6%
Christian: 77.5%
Muslim: 0.7%
Full time students: 7.7%
Graduates 16-74: 15.8%
No Qualifications 16-74: 33.9%
Owner-Occupied: 70.4%
Social Housing: 21.7% (Council: 11.5%, Housing Ass.: 10.2%)
Privately Rented: 4.8%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 7.4%
Perhaps I am overestimating the rise in the Conservative vote, but I still think Labour will have a majority of about 5%, perhaps a bit more.
I think some of these predictions fail to take into account the effect of tactical unwind, and the relative popularity of the local council. I think a Labour majority of at least 14 per cent is in order here.
I would be quite shocked if Labour won as easily as that – I personally don’t think the Conservatives have got the support base or the resources to make much of an improvement in their vote, plus I wonder how many votes Labour will lose to the BNP (who will surely stand here)
I’m not sure there’s much scope for a big BNP showing. The profile of a BNP area is overwhelmingly white and working class but with areas with high immigrant/BME population nearby. BNP voters don’t have black neighbours, but they know there’s an area ten minutes drive away where you can buy plaintain.
This seat is white and relatively working class but the whole region is very white. I would posit that makes it pretty poor territory for the BNP.
You obviously haven’t been up the West Road recently, Ben. I think the Labour vote will hold up pretty well (a drop of less than 5%) and that there will be a switch from Lib Dem to Tory to mirror national trends, resulting in a fairly static winning majority for Labour.
James, why do you think Labour vote will hold up better here than elsewhere, bearing in mind Doug Henderson is standing down and Labour have just 2 councillors in the seat
I don’t think Labour will hold up better than elsewhere, Matt. I think the 2005 result was disastrous for this seat and, despite this, I think the Labour share will decline marginally next year – though not by as much as others appear to expect. My assertion about the majority will be borne out by the change in where the shares of the opposition vote will fall.
James
“You obviously haven’t been up the West Road recently”: are you trying to indicate a sudden influx of ethnic minority or East Europeans? My memory of the constituency was just as the 2001 census demographics show: miniscule ethnic minority population. If, as I suspect, Benjamin is right and this isn’t fertile territory for the BNP, it seems to me that it will be harder for the LDs than if the BNP were taking votes from Labour.
Matt
Perhaps having a sitting MP defending a constituency will turn out to be a disadvantage at the coming General Election? This could happen if any personal vote/vote based on having been a good constituency MP is outweighed by a ‘kick the rascals out’ sentement that doesn’t discriminate between MPs who have had their fingers in the till and those who haven’t.
My point was that the Elswick/Arthurs Hill/Westgate Road areas – neighbourhoods approximately ten minutes outside this seat and at the very least one-third Asian – are areas that fit Ben’s rather vivid description of a typical BNP Area (”but they know there’s an area ten minutes drive away where you can buy plaintain”). Not that I’m expecting there will be a substantial BNP vote here, though I suspect it will nudge deposit-saving territory.
James,
OK, so you were talking about parts of Central constituency, but the stats for that constituency (White: 94.1%, Black: 0.4%,
Asian: 3.2%, Mixed: 0.9%) just don’t fit with the sort of shares you are talking about even for a relatively small part of the constit. OK, they are the parts of the city with the most non-white residents, but they have been for decades: are you really claiming that there has been such a big influx since 2001?
Ben, according to the ONS in 2008 the ethnic make-up of the City of Newcastle is almost 10% non-white, and about 6% South Asian, virtually all of which I would reckon is located in the areas above listed, within the Newcastle Central seat. In other words, there is a very substantial chunk of ethnic population, presumably numbering between 15,000 and 20,000, the kind of place where one might indeed buy plaintain, situated about 10 minutes from the heartlands of this, the Newcastle North seat.
And for the record, if the 2011 census reflects the reality, I think there will have been a massive increase in the BME percentages, and it will be no surprise to learn that the non-white population in the UK is above 12 per cent. Not that the figures will actually show the populations to be that high.
The Greens have also selected a woman called Anna Heyman as their candidate for Ncl North
I would be interested to know if anyone has received any communications from Labour as of now.
They have gone out.
And I’m sure through the right doors in the right wards!
I live in Central and got Ron Beadle’s leaflet, and a friend in North got Greg’s(when he was still standing)