Newcastle upon Tyne East
2010 Results:
Conservative: 6068 (16.04%)
Labour: 17043 (45.04%)
Liberal Democrat: 12590 (33.27%)
BNP: 1342 (3.55%)
Green: 620 (1.64%)
Others: 177 (0.47%)
Majority: 4453 (11.77%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 17256 (50.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 11363 (33.5%)
Conservative: 4185 (12.3%)
Other: 1121 (3.3%)
Majority: 5893 (17.4%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 3532 (11.1%)
Labour: 17462 (55.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 9897 (31.2%)
Other: 787 (2.5%)
Majority: 7565 (23.9%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 3873 (11.8%)
Labour: 20642 (63.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 6419 (19.6%)
Green: 651 (2%)
Other: 1109 (3.4%)
Majority: 14223 (43.5%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 5796 (13.9%)
Labour: 29607 (71.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 4415 (10.6%)
Referendum: 966 (2.3%)
Other: 805 (1.9%)
Majority: 23811 (57.3%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Nick Brown(Labour) born Hawkhurst, Kent. Educated at Manchester University. Prior to his election was a trade union legal advisor. Former Newcastle councillor. First elected as MP for Newcastle upon Tyne East in 1983. Deputy Opposition Chief Whip 1995-1997, Government Chief Whip 1997-1998. Secretary of State for Agriculture 1998-2001. Minister of State for Work 2001-2003, when he left the government. One of Gordon Brown`s closest allies, he organised a rebellion over student finance in 2004 and was widely seen as the chief of Brown`s supporters in the Labour ranks. Upon Brown accession as PM he returned to the government as Deputy Chief Whip in 2007 and was reappointed Chief Whip, a position he had left 10 years before, in 2008 (more information at They work for you)
Dominic Llewellyn (Conservative) Educated at Newcastle University. Works for a social reform design company.Nick Brown(Labour) born Hawkhurst, Kent. Educated at Manchester University. Prior to his election was a trade union legal advisor. Former Newcastle councillor. First elected as MP for Newcastle upon Tyne East in 1983. Deputy Opposition Chief Whip 1995-1997, Government Chief Whip 1997-1998. Secretary of State for Agriculture 1998-2001. Minister of State for Work 2001-2003, when he left the government. One of Gordon Brown`s closest allies, he organised a rebellion over student finance in 2004 and was widely seen as the chief of Brown`s supporters in the Labour ranks. Upon Brown accession as PM he returned to the government as Deputy Chief Whip in 2007 and was reappointed Chief Whip, a position he had left 10 years before, in 2008 (more information at They work for you)Wendy Taylor (Liberal Democrat) Newcastle councillor.Andrew Gray (Green) Alan Spence (BNP) 
Martin Levy (Communist) President of Newcastle TUC. Contested Newcastle East 1997, 2001, 2005. Contested North East 2009 European elections for No2EU.2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 88268
Male: 47.8%
Female: 52.2%
Under 18: 22%
Over 60: 23.2%
Born outside UK: 3.9%
White: 96.8%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 1.6%
Mixed: 0.6%
Other: 0.7%
Christian: 77.9%
Muslim: 1.2%
Full time students: 3.7%
Graduates 16-74: 18%
No Qualifications 16-74: 33.3%
Owner-Occupied: 66.1%
Social Housing: 26.5% (Council: 24%, Housing Ass.: 2.6%)
Privately Rented: 5.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 3.3%
Full List
Nick BROWN (Labour)
Andrew GRAY (Green)
Martin LEVY (Communist)
Dominic LLEWELLYN (Conservative)
Alan SPENCE (BNP)
Wendy TAYLOR (Lib Dem)
Current polls make LIb Dem win for Newcastle East a possibility though I agree it’s unlikely. Dan Cooke no longer standing for personal reasons.
Hello all, I am Alan Spence and will be standing for the BNP in Newcastle East.
I did not have anything to do with the fuel protest, I think that person was called “Eddie Spence” (though I may be mistaken)
Dan Cooke is actually not standing because his paperwork was wrong.
As things stand the chief whip is facing a serious fight to hold this seat. Another to watch on election night. I would not be surprised of a Liberal win here especially with a little tactical voting.
My current prediction is 500 votes either way, its that close.
Have been really surprised to see Gordon Brown up in Newcastle today.Is Nick Brown’s seat in peril?What about the other seats which have been taken for granted?Labour must be in terrible trouble.I always believe incumbency counts but a PM visit to a heartland is worrying for the party faithful.
All 3 Newcastle seats are potentially in danger to the LDs, especially because the level of postal voting in Newcastle is probably going to be one of the highest in the country which means people have been returning their postal votes during the height of the LD surge.
“Have been really surprised to see Gordon Brown up in Newcastle today.Is Nick Brown’s seat in peril?What about the other seats which have been taken for granted?Labour must be in terrible trouble.I always believe incumbency counts but a PM visit to a heartland is worrying for the party faithful.”
Yes is the answer. Blaydon too.
Hasn’t David Cameron been in Woodstock today? Does that mean he fears losing his own seat of Witney? I do wish people on this site (particularly Lib Dems) would stop the excessive ramping.
Were they half a million strong when Deltic Dave arrived then?
Besides, the parallel is incorrect. Gordon is in an area which on paper is not marginal, if he feared for his own seat then he would be in Scotland.
Deltic Dave is just touching base to remind his electorate what he looks like…..
…Stop digging.
I am not digging. Refer to the Chronicle – if I am still digging they must be in China…..
I’m normally Lab and that’s why I’m so surprised to see Gordon here.Doesn’t give me any confidence when he comes to town just 5 days before the Election.What is going on in the spin doctor’s mind?Surely he should be going to the North West or West Midlands,areas which are definitely more maginal on paper than here.Looks like the Lib Dems have really spooked us up here.
There is time and tide left though. 5 days is an awfully long time…..
Electoral calculus has Newcastle N and E as two Lib Dem gains – 3.83% majority in East and 5.98% in North. Newcastle C is still predicted to stay Lab… but only just
Labour may have the Boundary Commission to thank if they hold Newcastle Central, who in effect doubled the Labour majority
Well 13 years and a recession is going to make an area like this shaky
Sorry but after a bit digging around I have found out that it was “Andrew Spence” who led the fuel protests and not “Eddie Spence” as I stated previousy.
Thank you for your time
Alan Spence
Newcastle East BNP
Ladbrokes have labour at 8/11 and the LDs at Evens. This gives their chances at 57% and 50% respectively (remember there is an over round i.e. profit priced in). Just last month Labour were 1/3 on (75% chance).
On that basis, this is very very close.
I can quite easily see with a bit of tactical voting and an anti gordon brown sentiment getting the LDs over the line here and in Doug Henderson’s seat. I can also see momentum giving the LDs all three Newcastle seats. Is it really that strange?
This time I shall predict Labour to hold by 1%
Lib Dems would gain…if it was not for the looming prospect of a possible tory government…tactical voting is a symptom of a broken voting system
LAB HOLD
Michael Crick on Newsnight has just stated that both the Labour and the Conservative camps are claiming that Nick Brown is in Serious difficulty in this seat…. looks like a Lib Dem gain.
Now we know why Gordon Brown came to town last week and it’s not good reading for Labour.It will be devastating if we lose here.This is our heartland and I’m seriously worried for the Party.Why has it potentially gone so wrong?
Andy,
I’ll lyou why it has gone so wrong, they have stopped listening to people, the ordinary people that used to vote for them and sorry to say they were complicit in the Expences scandel, claiming sometimes more than someof the people that elected them earn in a year!
Also the Lib Dems have done a good job in running the City Council, If they win this seat like is looks like they will, Newcastle North will be a walk in the park for them and im sorry to say that Newcastle Central will be run very close as well.
In the North East Labour have taken the voters for granted for far too long, I would expect on this kind of result Blaydon and Durham City would fall easily and Labour could be in trouble in Blyth Valley, Wansbeck, Hartlepool and Redcar, yes Redcar. Mainly due to the campaigning the local Lib Dem Candidate has done for the Steel Workers…..
Its going to be an interesting 48 hours.
Sparkey,on your views it doesn’t sound good for Lab up here and nationally we could be at very serious risk of a bad 3rd in votes nationally.That leaves the Tories comfortable winners overall and so Lab ought to seriously look at itself and be honest that it failed its own people.Still 3 hrs left so lets not get too disheartened until the Fat Lady Sings but she definetly is on stage right now.
Andy
I think the Conservatives are not fairing as well as the polls make out…. as of last night 40% of people had not made up their mind how to vote….. so I think its going to be an interesting night. The conservatives will take seats from labour but not from the Lib Dems…. who will probably take seats from the cons…. im predicting a Lab/LD coalition.
Very bold sparky. I suspect that Labour and the Lib Dems together will only just outnumber the Tories and will actually fail to hold a majority between them. Such a coalition would then be highly unlikely.
Maybe you are not seeing it in Newcastle East, but here in Stoke South there is a very clear Conservative advance that seems to be going on.
Excellent prediction here by Shaun. Sparky, less so (four posts up).
Since 1918 (when Newcastle’s parliamentary representation was re-distributed into single-member constituencies) which constituencies have included Byker ward? (made famous of course by the ‘Byker Grove’ TV serial)
I would have assumed it was always in Newcastle East
Byker Ward has always been situated in Newcastle East.
And Byker Grove was not filmed or set in the ‘real’ Byker, but in an area in the west end of the City – (which was Tyne Bridge, now Newcastle Central).
So there you are, fact fans!
I see from the “Guardian” that Labour MPs have voted to elect the Chief Whip for the duration of the parliament. I think this is a crazy idea (although Labour whips at local council have I think for a long time been elected by the Labour Group).; but it does effectively mean that this seat will be represented by the Chief Whip at the next General Election.
Chief Whips have been known to lose their seats – it happened for instance to the Liberal Chief Whip in 1910 – but on the whole they are able to look after their constituencies. Not least, even an opposition Chief Whip has some leverage when it comes to dealing with the Government.
And as I have just posted in relation to Newcastle North, if there is redistribution to reduce the number of MPs Nick Brown is likely to find the changes favourable.
If the seat should be fought again on the present system and boundaries, the suspicion must be that the LibDems have missed their chance, as in Newcastle North.
While we are on the subject of the Parliamentary Labour Party’s election of office holders, the system of electing Shadow Cabinet members, even if only every two years, is also crazy. It undermines the authority of the leader, and leads to the selection of spokespeople on political grounds without regard to the needs of the positions they have to fill. Matters are going to be made worse by requiring one third of the Shadow Cabinet to be women. Frankly, Labour does not have the talent (as their leadership context is making painfully obvious) to start restricting their selection of spokespeople according to quotas. Labour ought to start addressing equality issues at a much earlier point, by identifying and developing able women who could get selected for winnable parliamentary seats on merit rather than through all women shortlists.
In my many posts on this site I have repeatedly – it has perhaps been my major theme – raised the psephological implications of good candidate selection. The Conservatives have upped their performance on this issue; but Labour have done little about it. (The LibDems can do less about candidate selection because they have fewer party members to choose from). We have seen the results in relation to the four managerial class lookalikes seeking the Labour leadership alongside Diane Abbot, when Labour has not even sat down and thought what they currently need in a leader. And now we are seeing them plough on in the old way, or worse, in relation to shadow spokespeople.
If Labour go on as they are in relation to their selection policies, they will reduce the effectiveness of their opposition campaigning, and be outsmarted by the other parties when it comes to the next General Election campaign.
Labour at present seems to be dependent upon the dubious prospects of both Tories and LibDems in a ConDem alliance that is liable to become un-electable if the economic future is as bad as seems possible. Sadly, this negative strategy might well work. But voting for the least bad is deeply depressing for voters and bad for the country’s future.
how would you reform Labour selection process? More to the point, what do you think Labour should achieve with their selection process?
The Tories have only won this seat once since the war, in 1959 when Fergus Montgomery defeated Arthur Blenkinsop by 98 votes.
I wonder whether the new Labour MP for Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East Tom Blenkinsop is any relation.
Surely so unless that surname is particularly common in the north-east.
This was one of two seats vacant at the time of the October 1974 election. Geoffrey Rhodes, who was Labour MP from 1964-74, died on 22nd June 1974.
I’m not sure what the other vacant seat was.
I think the other vacant seat was Swansea East.
Byker ward election countermanded after death of the Tory candidate.
In the countermanded election, Labour unsurprisingly held their stronghold, but the result is still quite striking:
Lab 1206 (72.6; +14.9)
BNP 144 (8.7; -0.2)
LD 102 (6.1; -18.1)
Ind 78 (4.7; +4.7)
Con 76 (4.6; -4.6)
It’s Time To Put Newcastle First 55 (3.3; +3.3)
Majority 1062
Turnout not known
Lab hold
Percentage change is since May 2010.
The independents haven’t made the impact they did in Westerhope further west, which is I think a less working-class area. Also note the very modest drop in the BNP vote and their rare accession into second place. Again a lousy LD result but anything else would be a huge shock at the moment.
The westerhope independant used to be one of the high ups in the Newcastle Tory Party. Westerhope is upper working/ lower middle class. Pretty awful but not Byker awful
Does Nick Brown win the prize for being the most invisible MP since the general election?
I can’t remember hearing, reading or seeing anything about him for a very long time.
I wonder if this means he might stand down early?
On the other hand there might be a good reason, such as illness for example. I hope that isn’t the case, of course.
*Is thinking whether or not to tactically vote LD*
In Jesmond South that is
Didnt.
I should hope not. What an appauling idea. I would feel quite sick at the prospect of voting Lib Dem!
Its just a very tight ward against Lab with cons nowhere
I know. But its highly unlikely Labour will only win it by one vote is it, and I’m sure you’d rather be able to say you voted for your first choice candidate rather than wasted your vote-if that is the result-on a tactical vote that didn’t come off.
Personally, I think you made the right decision.
http://www.journallive.co.uk/north-east-news/todays-news/2012/04/19/newcastle-tory-sacked-as-probe-launched-into-fraud-allegation-61634-30791468/
There is also this which makes it more dodgy.