Newcastle upon Tyne Central
2010 Results:
Conservative: 6611 (19.35%)
Labour: 15694 (45.95%)
Liberal Democrat: 8228 (24.09%)
BNP: 2302 (6.74%)
UKIP: 754 (2.21%)
Green: 568 (1.66%)
Majority: 7466 (21.86%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 16800 (51.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 8294 (25.5%)
Conservative: 5746 (17.7%)
Other: 1643 (5.1%)
Majority: 8506 (26.2%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 5749 (16.0%)
Labour: 16211 (45.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 12229 (34.0%)
Other: 1731 (4.8%)
Majority: 3982 (11.1%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 7414 (21.3%)
Labour: 19169 (55%)
Liberal Democrat: 7564 (21.7%)
Other: 723 (2.1%)
Majority: 11605 (33.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 10792 (23.4%)
Labour: 27272 (59.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 6911 (15%)
Referendum: 1113 (2.4%)
Majority: 16480 (35.8%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Chinyelu Susan Onwurah (Labour) Born Wallsend. Educated at Kenton Comprehensive. Chartered engineer working for Ofcom.
Nick Holder (Conservative) Runs a consultancy business.Chinyelu Susan Onwurah (Labour) Born Wallsend. Educated at Kenton Comprehensive. Chartered engineer working for Ofcom.
Gareth Kane (Liberal Democrat) born 1971, Northern Ireland. Educated at Methodist college Belfast and Cambridge University. Manager of an environmental research centre at Teesside University. Newcastle city councillor. Contested Sunderland South in 2005.
John Pearson (Green) Martin Davies (UKIP)
Ken Booth (BNP) Defected from the National Front in 2005. Contested North East region in 2009 European elections.2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 84752
Male: 48.7%
Female: 51.3%
Under 18: 18.3%
Over 60: 18.7%
Born outside UK: 7.1%
White: 94.1%
Black: 0.4%
Asian: 3.2%
Mixed: 0.9%
Other: 1.4%
Christian: 68.7%
Hindu: 0.7%
Muslim: 2.4%
Full time students: 18%
Graduates 16-74: 24.9%
No Qualifications 16-74: 28.5%
Owner-Occupied: 47.2%
Social Housing: 35% (Council: 30.1%, Housing Ass.: 4.8%)
Privately Rented: 15.2%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 5.9%
But the notional Labour majority was much increased by boundary changes.
The LibDems will have been disappointed though in their failure to squeeze the Conservative vote – something that hurt them significantly in many of their target seats.
The number of derisory Tory votes in third place is much reduced in this election. (although Scotland and about 4 cities were poor for them with many votes still under the 12.5% level which used to trigger the deposit).
If Labour can also repair some of theirs,
then another tranche of Lib Dems can be from the Commons.
Decent Labour performance all in all here, although the boundary changes may have saved them
I suspect Labour will regain Newcastle upon Tyne City council next year.
I saw Chinyelu Onwurah on BBC News yesterday commenting on the manhunt for Maoel Moat. She’s a very intelligent and knowledgeable woman. She is the type of person Labour need in the shadow Cabinet if they are serious about returning to office.
I would expect LibDems to retain control of the City Council in 2011 . On a non GE turnout they would hold the 5 marginal wards they are defending next year . The closest fight will be in Westerhope between the LD’s , Labour and the Ind councillor originally elected as a LD .Impossible at this stage to forecast how that ward will go .
On the 2005 General Election program, a Lib Dem activist was interviewed in this seat, saying she was hoping to gain more seats off Labour than originally expected, and possibly this one,
when she had hoped/expected that they’d “win lots of decapitation seats off the Tories” instead.
So proof on live TV that they did use that phrase.
“She is the type of person Labour need in the shadow Cabinet if they are serious about returning to office.”
That may well be the case BUT she’s got to get elected to the Shadow Cabinet.
So unlike the Conservatives who can more easily appoint someone because the leader thinks they’re the ‘right type of person’, it’s not that simple with Labour.
Mark Senior is an expert on local elections unlike me, but I cannot see the Lib Dems holding up in northern cities like Newcastle, Liverpool and Sheffield now that they are in national coalition with the Tories and making cuts that will be especially unpopular with their voters in places like this.
Less certain and more interesting will be how the Lib Dems perform in their traditionally Tory areas in southern England.
“Less certain and more interesting will be how the Lib Dems perform in their traditionally Tory areas in southern England.”
I expect the Lib Dems may hold their own in those areas – people in those areas may feel that it’s ‘safe’ to vote Lib Dem (whereas if the LDs had gone into coaltion with Labour the Lib Dems would be in serious truoble in southern England).
unless people give the Tories the credit if the government does well (which remains to be seen of course).
Then we can finish them off from both ends.
I think the Lib Dems could struggle in the south west, particularly where they’ve squeezed the Labour vote to virtually zero. A reversion to the sort of votes Labour got in these areas in the early 90s (the end of the “long-term loan” of the vote to the ‘Keep Out The Tories’ party – not a strong claim now they’re in national coalition – could lead to a sizeable improvement in the Labour vote in 2011, though they’ve become so weak in the area that they may not pick up too many seats (in fact, ironically, many areas could see a vote Lab, get Con result in the C-LD marginals down there)
“Mark Senior is an expert on local elections unlike me, but I cannot see the Lib Dems holding up in northern cities like Newcastle, Liverpool and Sheffield now that they are in national coalition with the Tories and making cuts that will be especially unpopular with their voters in places like this.
Less certain and more interesting will be how the Lib Dems perform in their traditionally Tory areas in southern England.”
It must be remembered though that the LibDem strongholds in Newcastle, Liverpool and Sheffield are actually in what were the traditional Conservative wards. It’s likely that the coalition government will be welcomed in places like Gosforth, Woolton and Dore.
Where the LibDems could be in trouble is in the marginal wards in these cities which the need to win to gain overall control. In these places they have already squeezed the Conservative vote as low as possible but they still require the support of natural Labour supporters to win.
A reverse situation happens in the south where the strongest LibDem areas are often those were once Labour voting.
It’s likely that there will be different effects all over the country with many interesting election results.
I was pleasantly surprised to see on Wikipedia that the former MP for Newcastle Central (1951-76) Edward Short is alive and well at the age of 97. He’s slightly younger than James Allason: (6th Sep 1912 v 17th Dec 1912).
And Sir William Elliott, Conservative MP for Newcastle North 1957-83 turns 90 later this year.
Ted Short is 98 today.
relatively high BNP vote here. Must have come from the Fenham and Benwell areas.
Newcastle May 2011
Lab gain from Lib Dem.
Newcastle Central results (averaged in Elswick)
LD Lab Con Others
W Gosforth 1824 1001 892 276
Fenham 890 1773 385 486
Benwell 323 2202 332 356
Blakelaw 1088 1940 246
Kenton 449 2084 416
Westgate 278 1342 203
Elswick 145 1673 224 421
Wingrove 303 1753 673 250
5300 13768 3371 1433
22.2 57.7 14.1 6
Actually that should be (1789) 7.4% for others.
Quite pleased the Tories were not far off second place in West Gosforth, but obviously that’s small beer compared to how things were.
This video from ITN includes at 15 mins 30 secs Piers Merchant winning Newcastle Central in 1983 with the Labour candidate refusing to shake hands with him:
htttp://bit.ly/oY5jxI
The footage is supposed to be just the Walthamstow declaration but is actually about 90 minutes long.