Morley and Outwood
2010 Results:
Conservative: 17264 (35.34%)
Labour: 18365 (37.59%)
Liberal Democrat: 8186 (16.76%)
BNP: 3535 (7.24%)
UKIP: 1506 (3.08%)
Majority: 1101 (2.25%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 19956 (50.2%)
Conservative: 10172 (25.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 4030 (10.1%)
Other: 5570 (14%)
Majority: 9784 (24.6%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 8227 (19.4%)
Labour: 20570 (48.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 6819 (16%)
BNP: 2271 (5.3%)
Other: 4608 (10.8%)
Majority: 12343 (29%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 9829 (25.6%)
Labour: 21919 (57%)
Liberal Democrat: 5446 (14.2%)
UKIP: 1248 (3.2%)
Majority: 12090 (31.4%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 12086 (26.3%)
Labour: 26836 (58.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 5087 (11.1%)
Referendum: 1359 (3%)
Other: 529 (1.2%)
Majority: 14750 (32.1%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Ed Balls (Labour) born 1967, Norwich. Educated at Nottingham High School and Oxford University. Former financial journalist and close advisor to Gordon Brown as Shadow Chancellor and Chancellor, he was a close ally of Gordon Brown during his premiership. Economic Secretary to the Treasury 2006-2007, Secretary of State for Children and Schools 2007-2010. Shadow home secretary 2010-2011, shadow chancellor since 2011. Elected as MP for Normanton in 2005, his seat was abolished in the boundary review, despite legal attempts to have the boundary commission recommendations overturned. In March 2007 he was selected to fight the Morley & Outwood seat in place of the retiring Colin Challen. Unsuccessfully ran for the Labour leadership in 2010. Balls is married to Yvette Cooper, the MP for Pontefract and Castleford.
Antony Calvert (Conservative) Wakefield councillor 2004-2007. Partner at Curtin & Co, a public affairs and community consultation company.Ed Balls (Labour) born 1967, Norwich. Educated at Nottingham High School and Oxford University. Former financial journalist and close advisor to Gordon Brown as Shadow Chancellor and Chancellor, he remains a close ally of Brown. Economic Secretary to the Treasury since 2006. Elected as MP for Normanton in 2005, his seat was abolished in the boundary review, despite legal attempts to have the boundary commission recommendations overturned. In March 2007 he was selected to fight the Morley & Outwood seat in place of the retiring Colin Challen. Balls is married to Yvette Cooper, the MP for Pontefract and Castleford.
James Monaghan (Liberal Democrat) Born Wakefield. Small businessman. Leeds councillor. 
David Daniel (UKIP) 
Chris Beverley (BNP) Educated at Leeds University. Leeds councillor since 2006. Contested Yorkshire & Humberside region in 2004, 2009 European elections. Morley and Rothwell 2005. Writes a regular column for the newspaper of the German NPD party.2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 91230
Male: 48.7%
Female: 51.3%
Under 18: 22.8%
Over 60: 18.4%
Born outside UK: 2.6%
White: 97.7%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 1%
Mixed: 0.6%
Other: 0.4%
Christian: 76.6%
Full time students: 1.9%
Graduates 16-74: 14.1%
No Qualifications 16-74: 32%
Owner-Occupied: 76.1%
Social Housing: 16.4% (Council: 14.7%, Housing Ass.: 1.8%)
Privately Rented: 5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 16.8%
This is from the Daily Mail so caveats apply
There’s a good reason if Ed Balls seems even more smug than normal.
Back in 2010, he feared that he might not be re-elected as an MP — but eventually squeezed to victory in the General Election with a 1,200 majority.
The Tories had made huge efforts to defeat him.
Hoping for a prize Labour scalp, they poured massive resources to campaign against him in his Yorkshire seat.
But now, halfway through this parliament, the Shadow Chancellor’s future seems totally safe because the Conservatives can’t even find a candidate to stand against him in the next election.
Indeed, the Morley and Outwood constituency has become a shameful symbol of a major crisis facing David Cameron — with the Tory HQ’s failure to attract high-calibre candidates to fight the next election. Two months after an appeal for people in the constituency to come forward, the selection procedure has ground to a halt.
This is particularly galling since the seat is one of 40 that polling experts say the Tories must win if they are to stand a chance of having an overall majority in 2015.
Balls’s opponent in 2010 — planning official Antony Calvert — has decided not to run again because he fears the seat is unwinnable by the Tories.
Instead, local party chiefs asked Nick Pickles, who runs the civil-liberty pressure group Big Brother Watch. The Yorkshireman stood against Balls’s wife Yvette Cooper in the neighbouring seat of Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford in 2010, and halved her majority with a massive 22 per cent swing.
Yet he, too, turned down the chance.
Thus the forlorn search goes on .?.?. and Ed Balls looks more pleased with himself by the day.
Quite apart from anything else, there wasn’t a 22% swing to the Conservatives in Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford. It was of course one of about 11%. This is of course just the sort of thing which makes Anthony despair, and I too get very annoyed when people who ought to know better misuse the term.
They are just using the American definition of swing rather than the British one.
The Daily Mail is scraping the barrel with that story.
Antony Calvert is simply speaking the truth that Morley & Outwood is not realistically winnable for the Tories in 2015, and having done so well in 2010 it is fair enough that he feels entitled to look for a more winnable seat.
It is hardly big news that parties find it difficult to persuade good people to stand as paper candidates where they have little chance of winning. It’s no different on the Labour side, where they routinely put up spotty 22 year olds as parliamentary candidates in the likes of Surrey and Somerset.
And obviously the reason why Labour do that is so these candidates can get valuable experience of campaigning in an election, which will help them to find winnable seats in the future, and also boost their CV.
There are of course equally as many constituencies where the Tories do exactly the same thing in seemingly no-hope seats- Put up young candidates before they get more promising seats in the future.
Surely, if the Conservatives are in with a chance of outpolling Labour, this wouldn’t be an unwinnable seat?
However, of course if the 2 parties are level or thereabouts, or Labour are ahead nationally, it would be. The prevailing wind certainly isn’t a pleasant for the Conservatives at the moment, but things could improve.
I very much suspect that we could end up with another Hung Parliament come 2015.
If the Tories do really well in government over the next two years, then if they’re lucky enough it could be them with a small overall majority.
However, with the two Eds seemingly unpopular with the masses- Politically aware or not, I may add, despite current poll ratings I do feel Labour would still struggle to win the election themselves.
“Surely, if the Conservatives are in with a chance of outpolling Labour, this wouldn’t be an unwinnable seat?”
In 2010 the Tories were 7% ahead of Labour and still couldn’t win this seat.
Plus they were assisted by a very high BNP vote and a very personal campaign against Balls.
The Tories may be ahead of Labour in 2015 but it won’t be by anything like 7%. Labour will get back a lot of the Lib Dem and BNP vote and will be pushing 50% of the vote in seats like this.
Id be suprised if the BNP vote doesnt stay high or go to UKIP / EngDem and the liberals are pretty weak here to start of with. Id think labour are more likely to be around 43-45 here.
I’d have thought this seat is winnable for the Tories.
Not sure I want it to be but if they recover from the mid-term this would probably be better than average recovery.
Local elections were bad here last May though.
There probably is at least 10 points up for grabs from the Lib Dems and BNP – so if the C vote held up they would need right leaning LDs on top of it.
Let’s assume UKIP holds up or gets to about 6%.
This certainly looks like just the kind of area where the Tories should be competing. Lots of private businesses, owner occupation, small industrial firms.
My prediction from 2007 still holds true:
“I think Labour will win here but suspect it could be closer than expected – say 2000 majority.
Balls strikes me as something of a cold fish and will struggle in an area like this filled with ambitious, independently minded working class voters.
Long term this will be won by the Conservatives the next time they win an overall majority.”
Has Anthony Calvert given up on politics or is he merely looking for a safe Conservative seat after having made his name in 2010.
That would make sense if he had political ambitions rather than waiting to beat the sacked former Chancellor Ed Balls in 2019/20.
I suspect we haven’t seen the last of Calvert.
Wouldn’t be at all surprised if he did end up in Parliament in the next ten years.
And this seat being in your county Richard would I be right in assuming that you have either met Calvert or been to areas in this constituency in the past?
I’ve not met Tony Calvert but many people on this and other websites will have done as he has been to Political Betting meet-ups.
I don’t know if I’ve ever been to this constituency but I’ve been through it countless times.
Its more of a sprawl than a place.
Thanks for that Richard. You describe it as a sprawl- is that because of rurality?
Not at all.
Its a collection of small towns – Morley, Ardsley, Outwood, Wrenthorpe and Stanley – between Leeds and Wakefield, which are steadily growing with new developments being built.
As things stand now I think this seat will be a struggle to win in 2015. Even if things improve for the government I still think Balls will hold on.
‘As things stand now I think this seat will be a struggle to win in 2015.’
The Tories will find it near impossible to better their 2010 result. As things stand they can’t even find a candidate to contest the seat at the next election
The first tranche of target seats from the Conservatives in 2013…..include some seats they’ve already called for, which tells its own story I think
Anyway, the ten seats in the latest update (including some they’ve already mentioned) are
Birmingham Northfield
Bolton West
Brecon and Radnorshire
Chippenham
Chorley
Eastbourne
Mid Dorset and North Poole
Middlesborough South and East Cleveland
Morley and Outwood
North Devon
Somerton and Frome
Telford
Torbay
Vale of Clwyd
Dispite what MPs get paid, its still a good option for many, so Anthony my well become an MP.