Morley and Outwood
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 19956 (50.2%)
Conservative: 10172 (25.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 4030 (10.1%)
Other: 5570 (14%)
Majority: 9784 (24.6%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 8227 (19.4%)
Labour: 20570 (48.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 6819 (16%)
BNP: 2271 (5.3%)
Other: 4608 (10.8%)
Majority: 12343 (29%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 9829 (25.6%)
Labour: 21919 (57%)
Liberal Democrat: 5446 (14.2%)
UKIP: 1248 (3.2%)
Majority: 12090 (31.4%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 12086 (26.3%)
Labour: 26836 (58.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 5087 (11.1%)
Referendum: 1359 (3%)
Other: 529 (1.2%)
Majority: 14750 (32.1%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Outgoing MP: Colin Challen(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Antony Calvert (Conservative) Wakefield councillor 2004-2007. Partner at Curtin & Co, a public affairs and community consultation company.
Ed Balls (Labour) born 1967, Norwich. Educated at Nottingham High School and Oxford University. Former financial journalist and close advisor to Gordon Brown as Shadow Chancellor and Chancellor, he remains a close ally of Brown. Economic Secretary to the Treasury since 2006. Elected as MP for Normanton in 2005, his seat was abolished in the boundary review, despite legal attempts to have the boundary commission recommendations overturned. In March 2007 he was selected to fight the Morley & Outwood seat in place of the retiring Cholin Challen. Balls is married to Yvette Cooper, the MP for Pontefract and Castleford.
James Monaghan (Liberal Democrat) Born Wakefield. Small businessman. Leeds councillor. 
David Daniel (UKIP) 
Chris Beverley (BNP) Educated at Leeds University. Leeds councillor since 2006. Contested Yorkshire & Humberside region in 2004, 2009 European elections. Morley and Rothwell 2005. Writes a regular column for the newspaper of the German NPD party.
Tracy Greenwood (Peoples National Democrat) Born Shoreham. Small businessman. Business development manager.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 91230
Male: 48.7%
Female: 51.3%
Under 18: 22.8%
Over 60: 18.4%
Born outside UK: 2.6%
White: 97.7%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 1%
Mixed: 0.6%
Other: 0.4%
Christian: 76.6%
Full time students: 1.9%
Graduates 16-74: 14.1%
No Qualifications 16-74: 32%
Owner-Occupied: 76.1%
Social Housing: 16.4% (Council: 14.7%, Housing Ass.: 1.8%)
Privately Rented: 5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 16.8%
The Leeds City Council by-election for Woodhouse and Hyde Park is a travesty for democracy, with just 14.6 of the electorate voting.
With that kind of turnout, anyone could win the Morley/Wrenthorpe seat.
I can see Ed Balls being decapitated here, I really can.
There are strong candidates being put forward by each party contesting the seats and I hear Ed Balls isn’t exactly Mr Popular round there.
I can see it happening, but less so if there’s a narrowing to 4 or 5 points.
I wouldn’t use that phrase – it backfires.
I expect Labour to put alot of effort into this seat to counter the effort from opposing parties. Should be a Labour hold on a halved majority despite the popularity or lack of of Mr Balls.
Anyone think different?
If Balls loses it’ll be a Portillo moment, even if the election overall is a Tory landslide, which seems unlikely. But it would be nice.
It’s not going to happen with the polls like this.
It is likely to be higher swing than average here though.
The Tories would need to be getting about 42% I think for this one to come off.