Moray
2010 Results:
Conservative: 10683 (26.05%)
Labour: 7007 (17.09%)
Liberal Democrat: 5956 (14.53%)
SNP: 16273 (39.69%)
UKIP: 1085 (2.65%)
Majority: 5590 (13.64%)
2005 Results:
SNP: 14196 (36.6%)
Conservative: 8520 (22%)
Labour: 7919 (20.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 7460 (19.2%)
Other: 698 (1.8%)
Majority: 5676 (14.6%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 electionEM631.
2001 Result
Conservative: 7677 (23.1%)
Labour: 8332 (25.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 5224 (15.7%)
SNP: 10076 (30.3%)
UKIP: 291 (0.9%)
Other: 1623 (4.9%)
Majority: 1744 (5.2%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 10963 (27.6%)
Labour: 7886 (19.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 3548 (8.9%)
SNP: 16529 (41.6%)
Referendum: 840 (2.1%)
Majority: 5566 (14%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Angus Robertson(SNP) (more information at They work for you)
Douglas Ross (Conservative) Keiron Green (Labour)James Paterson (Liberal Democrat)Angus Robertson(SNP) (more information at They work for you)Donald Gatt (UKIP)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 86940
Male: 50%
Female: 50%
Under 18: 23.8%
Over 60: 21.5%
Born outside UK: 3.7%
White: 99.1%
Asian: 0.3%
Mixed: 0.2%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 63.7%
Full time students: 0%
Graduates 16-74: 17.9%
No Qualifications 16-74: 31.5%
Owner-Occupied: 63.3%
Social Housing: 22.1% (Council: 18.3%, Housing Ass.: 3.8%)
Privately Rented: 10.7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 5.5%
The result for the Euros in Moray:
SNP 6960 (36.3%)
Con 4078 (21.3%)
Lab 1760 (9.2%)
Lib 1744 (9.1%)
UKIP 1532 (8.0%)
Greens 1252 (6.5%)
BNP 523 (2.7%)
Others 1200 (6.3%)
The council boundaries are the same as that of the constituency.
High vote for the UKIP here….added together witht he Conservatives (as they are generally the same voter) it becomes a lot more competitive.
The trick here is to convince people that the Conservatives *can* win. In so many areas natural Tories are swayed by the ‘Scotland is a no hope area for the Conservatives’ or ‘There are no Tories in Scotland’ nonsence…..if people believe that there is a chance, I think they will be much more likely to get that momentum going.
Also the local party needs to go big on the sitting MP’s expenses
Those in who pick a party label and ignore the candidate may overlook the expenses issue. If offended by the expenses, they are more likely to not vote than transfer their allegiance to another party which has only half the effect on the majority.
The Anyone-but-the Tories tendency are the biggest force in Scottish politics and started to grow in this part of Scotland in the 1960′s when the then MP for this constituency was a party loyalist first and foremost and not the sharpest knife in the drawer.
Those who are impressed by the efforts of the MSP to raise the profile of rural and fishing issues may also vote on a party ticket. Maybe these two factors will compensate for the expenses problem, and there is a sizeable majority to lose.
On the other hand, ignoring the problem won’t make it go away. There had better be a justification or show of contrition that will encourage those who want to vote for the sitting MP’s party to go to the polling station rather than stay at home and hold their noses while they put their mark against the candidate’s name.
Maybe a reduced turnout will be the most interesting part of the results.
SNP hold does seem the most probable outcome; hold between 2000-5000 certainly seems credible.
The MP may however survive and remain uneffected in any great way from the expenses scandal- then he ought to be able to motivate his core vote. The majority then will be higher than 2000.
Tory Wesminster Candidate for Moray Douglas Ross has quit the Independent / Conservative group running Moray Council
Following extract from Press and Journal – 23 Dec 2009
“Tory councillor Douglas Ross announced his departure from the Conservative-independent group, which now has 12 elected members out of 26.
Mr Ross became councillor for Fochabers-Lhanbryde in the 2007 elections and will also be one of his party’s Westminster hopefuls at next year’s general election.
He and fellow Conservatives formed a coalition with independents, giving them a majority.
Yesterday, Mr Ross defended his move and highlighted a recent decision by the administration not to fund some alleviation measures in flood-hit Garmouth and Kingston.
“This is not a decision I have taken lightly but, in recent months I have found myself disagreeing with some decisions taken by the administration,” he said.
“I believe I can be a stronger voice for these communities and the whole Fochabers-Lhanbryde area outwith the administration.”
Local MP Angus Robertson said Mr Ross was taking the easy option.
“It seems to me he has thrown the toys out of the pram because he can’t get his own way with his own Tory colleagues,” the SNP member said.
“Fighting for local issues and handling the difficult decisions of being in an administration do not always sit easily together but to absolve yourself of responsibility is really taking the easy way out.”
Slight narrowing here – but I would still predict a SNP majority in the region of 11-12%.
I could not agree more with the words quoted in the last three lines of Paul’s post. It is disappointing to see a Tory councillor act in that way.
To win the Moray seat for the Conservatives all that David Cameron has to do is announce a referendum on the EU. Let the people decide……..it is called democracy………what our boys are dying for in Afghanistan, but we cannot get it in the UK
PRESS AND JOURNAL
http://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/Article.aspx/1664750
Councillor faces claims he abused staff and failed to declare interest
Moray Tory member vehemently denies allegations
By donna macallister
Published: 27/03/2010
A Moray councillor is at the centre of an investigation amid claims he disrespected council staff and failed to declare his interests. The Standards Commission is looking into the complaints against Fochabers Lhanbryde councillor Douglas Ross. Mr Ross, who will stand at the next election as Moray’s prospective Conservative candidate, has vigorously rejected the claims and denied any wrongdoing.
A Standards Commission spokeswoman last night confirmed that an investigation was under way. She said she could comment no further until the chief investigating officer had concluded any investigations or inquiries. Last night, Mr Ross said the complaints stemmed from debates in council chambers about flooding in Elgin.
Mr Ross said an officer had taken issue with the fact that he had not declared – at the outset of each debate – that his landlord was an objector to the Elgin Flood Alleviation Scheme. He said he felt no need to do so because the interest had been declared on the council’s centrally-held members’ interests.
He defended another complaint, which he claimed centred around Elgin’s Deanshaugh sports pitches. It emerged in August last year that Moray Council, which had originally proposed spending £183,500, spent only £6,500 on drainage and landscaping – £177,000 less than planned. Despite the work that was carried out, the sports fields were left waterlogged and unusable.
The complaint involved his failure to disclose that his father works in grounds maintenance. He said he never tried to hide the fact, but felt it was irrelevant as the debates were about decisions taken regarding drainage.
The complaint relating to his alleged disrespect towards council employees, he claimed relates to his “questioning style” over an internal audit report into the situation at Deanshaugh.
“If I have ever overstepped the mark in my approach it has been because of frustration at the responses I have received and my belief that members of the public and elected members did not know the full facts regarding this affair,” he said.
That’s MacLennan off the ballot then…
At 1050 am, the BBC reported that Jim Murphy said he would not be deselected.
At 1116 am, the BBC reported he will not be standing.
I’m presuming in the interim 25 minutes, somebody had told him to f#*% off!
I think it just shows that you have to be careful what you say and where you say it during any discussion – theres no need for foul and abusive language and it seems to be present on all sides on the internet.
It will come back to haunt you and your party – so keep it clean and sensible!
You are talking about the Moray Labour guy, not me? I used asterisks!
Maybe I should say L#bour and C#nservative!?!?!
Only joking, everyone….only joking….
Mind you Cameron did say ‘too many Twits make a tw#t….’
I guess it wasn’t a so traumatic decision for him to stand down….he was PPC for a not winnable seat.
It will probably have a more negative impact in his future political career (if he aspired to big and better things in the future)
I tend to agree Andrea, but nonetheless, he may have felt that he might have had a sporting chance, if Labour had hung on to their core vote, plus if he’d have swayed anyone by being seen as a ‘young dynamic candidate’.
Truth is, any hint of him being ‘dynamite’ has, regretfully for him, blown up in his face….
Absolutely. I would be loath to give him a second chance. You should never say anything on a public forum that you would not be prepared to announce loudly in a crowded pub or shopping precinct.
Hi ray,
My comment wasn’t aimed at you at all – its just I’ve seen things on the internet that if said out loud in the street would shame a trooper.
If I do identify any offenders, the worst seem be some of those of a right wing dispoosition, who often come across as rabid foaming at the mouth nutters more often than not. But this incident confirms that such behaviour can cross party lines!
Mind you, I’m not a PPC, and I never will be! Not even a member of any party these days!
Maybe I should have taken John Tilley’s advice in 1990….
John Ruddy talking utter rubbish I see. Apparantly yes this candidate was wrong to say what he said, but he’s from the left and so is part of a small minority, whilst the right are packed full with such people. Thats not biased at all is it? Neither is it proveable.
There are plenty of people of ALL political persuasions who swear. As I commented on another thread, a well-known Lib Dem once called me – I’ll spare you the asterisks and use an acceptable biological replacement term – a”"”"”vagina”"”"” (as I said, NOT the exact word used!) for voting differently to him at a Party Conference.
Bear in mind I was a complete stranger and I hadn’t met him before….but I clocked his name tag. Oddly enough, my paternal family originated from the Village he represented on the Council. But I still happily voted against the Trident third boat scheme….LITERAL democracy in action, haha.
But to mostly agree with Shaun, I have heard ‘colourful’ and ‘unparliamentary’ language from members and Councillors of all main parties. No particularly left or right bias in my experience at all.
SNP HOLD – IMO
I don’t think he was booted for swearing per se, but for swearing in conjunction with being rather insulting to specific individuals (Cameron, Clegg, Bercow, etc) and groups of people (Celtic supporters, the elderly, etc).
Plenty of parliamentarians have used ‘decorative’ language in the past, but few of them have demonstrated such bigotry against, for example, Scottish Catholics.
SNP Hold= 3,000 maj
Tories 2nd
and now there has to be a new Labour candidate too. Could have been worse – this seat is no longer winnable…. oh dearie, dearie me.
I doubt it was really on Labour’s radar this year anyway in all fairness
So, labour need a new candidate in moray at short notice….. I’d nominate Barnaby but I understnd he’s a Londoner, so it will have to be Falkirkbairn01
Labour did very well here in 2001, coming within 5% of victory.
That is true Andy. Elgin is Labour’s strongest area by far, but anecdotally the party also did well in RAF Kinloss.
Maybe it’s because I’m a Londoner – that I can’t really stand here in this seat……..
Well, any party is liable to this sort of accident. Selection procedures cannot be 100% perfect.
I cannot help thinking that if parties, not just Labour, selected for Westminster candidates who had been honed elsewhere, for instance as councillors or, in Labour’s case, even as front-line union representatives (i.e. shop stewards, not researchers), they would be less vulnerable to candidates saying silly things using the electronic media.
Labour got nothing here in 1983 but came close to winning the Westminster and Holyrood constituencies the noughties.
I think what happened here is that the natural Labour vote was taken by the SNP in the 1980′s and 1990′s. When the SNP became the establishment party here Labour grew strong in local government in oppositiomn to the SNP. The SNP perhaps took some Tory votes when it looked asif Labour might win.
The seat is pronounced “Murray” not as written. I wasn’t aware of this for a few years, although I then realised that I had heard it pronounced when weather forecasters talk about the Moray Firth.
It is yes. However I used to have a supervisor at work who was called Moray because, apparently, she was conceived there, and she pronounced it Mo-RAY.
I supposed since she was a woman she didn’t want to be called Murray
If Labour fail to select a candidate here before the close of nominations then this is the result I would expect.
SNP: 18500
Conservative: 10500
Liberal Democrat: 7500
Other: 2000
Majority: 8000
I don’t see Labour getting more than 5000 following the events here.
Labour will have a candidate in place.. I think that is the one safe bet. They may not have a campaign
…and because any campaign Labour has is not likely to be very effective (in view of the damage done by Stuart MacLennan) the whole seat potentially becomes a three way SNP-Con-LD marginal. Jamie Paterson looks like the sort of live-wire who could spring a surprise
SNP 18000
SCUP 11000
LD 5000
Labour 3500
UKIP 800
Sorry, Observer, but if the LibDems do turn this into a three way marginal it would be a massive surprise. The LibDems sensed an opportunity of major progress in the Moray SP By-Election in 2006 and went full tilt at getting a result, using canvassing figures around Kinloss as an unofficial opinion poll and quoting the local paper as saying the LibDems were on the up (when the paper itself had been quoting LibDem figures saying they were on the up), to try and create the impression that they were in with a shout.
They came third.
However, that needn’t have been an embarrassment – although they got 19.37% of the vote, that was a 7% increase (in comparison to the 9% reduction in the Labour vote share), but it should have given them a little momentum for the following year.
One year on, their progress evaporated – almost completely. Basically, they had a shot at making real progress here and missed the bus.
As to MacLennan, I have to say that on paper, he wouldn’t have been the worst candidate for Labour in a seat like this. Labour weren’t at the races, so could afford to ‘blood’ a new candidate who was going places within the party (as he was), and he was local to the area – and indeed, had a row with Esther Rantzen on Twitter about their links to their respective constituencies (I wonder what she thinks about this row?). Could well have been a List candidate (and a potential successor to Peter Peacock) a few years down the line. But I guess we’ll never know now…
What does everyone think of twittergate?
Putting partisanship aside do you really think that people care what flippant, throw away comments people make? Or do people actually care?
My opinion is that he has been unlucky to be caught, as there are many young people who say stupid things they may not actually mean. As a constant facebooker I am a member of many silly groups which people may find offensive but it is just a joke. Any thoughts?
To be honest, I reckon that those people complaining that he used naughty words to describe other politicians need to grow a spine. Let’s face it, these people are public figures, and not universally popular (least of all with people from rival parties). Some people will say nasty things about them and some of them will put it on the internet, and if that’s such a horrible thing to happen to them then good grief, they’ve led sheltered lives!
But seriously, what I think this does tell us is that we need to think about how we respond to these rows when they pop up – after all, the SNP was hauled over the coals for ‘Wardog-gate’ and ‘Cheese-gate’ and it was the Labour Leadership who tried to make hay, with another attempt over the ‘Jim Murphy doesn’t speak for me’ group on Facebook. So it was ironic, I think, that Labour should fall victim to the next row.
By my reckoning, with Wardog not an SNP member, that’s one Tory (Right for Scotland, hit by the Sunday Herald in 2008 IIRC), one unattached pro-independence blogger, one SNP constituency worker and one Labour candidate felled by an online scandal in Scotland. Maybe party leaderships (my own included) ought to be careful how they make hay about these things as they don’t know (and can’t control) what their own people are doing and their party could always be next…
Spot on Will.
Will Patterson says: “Maybe party leaderships (my own included) ought to be careful how they make hay about these things as they don’t know (and can’t control) what their own people are doing and their party could always be next”
I agree with you on this, and was pleased to see that Angus Robertson (SNP Westminster Leader) did not have a real go at Labour over this in BBC Scotland’s politics program today.
However, I do think it is Labour (especially Murphy) who should be most chastened about this as they/he were very OTT in attacking SNP bloggers (none of whom were candidates) in recent weeks.
Agree with Will Paterson about LibDem prospects in Moray. They failed to achieve a breakthrough in the by-election and have faded away into non-contention. They failed to get any councillors elected in 2007. They have no organisation and no profile in Moray. The seat is a straightforward SNP-Conservative contest.
The Tories putting up a stronger fight than they have for years with a local candidate who has generated a fair amount of positive profile in the local media not least over the threat of flooding in his ward.
SNP
Conservative
Libdem
Labour
Majority – 4500
Following all the interest in Twitter and Facebook and the like, perhaps the Lib-Dems should be a bit concerned that their candidate has posted photos of himself canvassing in Inverness rather than Moray and his single tweet boasts of delivering leaflets in Stockbridge.
It might help his campaign if he went to Moray.
SNP Hold
Maj 3 200
Any new Labour candidate here?
Kieron Green, a 25 year old man from Elgin, is the new Labour candidate
Nice to see you commenting here again Will.
Thanks Andrea, and I echo Barnaby’s comments above