Moray
2010 Results:
Conservative: 10683 (26.05%)
Labour: 7007 (17.09%)
Liberal Democrat: 5956 (14.53%)
SNP: 16273 (39.69%)
UKIP: 1085 (2.65%)
Majority: 5590 (13.64%)
2005 Results:
SNP: 14196 (36.6%)
Conservative: 8520 (22%)
Labour: 7919 (20.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 7460 (19.2%)
Other: 698 (1.8%)
Majority: 5676 (14.6%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 electionEM631.
2001 Result
Conservative: 7677 (23.1%)
Labour: 8332 (25.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 5224 (15.7%)
SNP: 10076 (30.3%)
UKIP: 291 (0.9%)
Other: 1623 (4.9%)
Majority: 1744 (5.2%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 10963 (27.6%)
Labour: 7886 (19.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 3548 (8.9%)
SNP: 16529 (41.6%)
Referendum: 840 (2.1%)
Majority: 5566 (14%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Angus Robertson(SNP) (more information at They work for you)
Douglas Ross (Conservative) Keiron Green (Labour)James Paterson (Liberal Democrat)Angus Robertson(SNP) (more information at They work for you)Donald Gatt (UKIP)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 86940
Male: 50%
Female: 50%
Under 18: 23.8%
Over 60: 21.5%
Born outside UK: 3.7%
White: 99.1%
Asian: 0.3%
Mixed: 0.2%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 63.7%
Full time students: 0%
Graduates 16-74: 17.9%
No Qualifications 16-74: 31.5%
Owner-Occupied: 63.3%
Social Housing: 22.1% (Council: 18.3%, Housing Ass.: 3.8%)
Privately Rented: 10.7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 5.5%
The new Labour candidate is the great great nephew of Sir Basil Clarke (War correspondent and British government wartime propaganda expert) and also the great nephew of S.R. Green (former chairman of Lintas – Unilever’s advertising agency).
SNP maj 6,500
SNP HOLD
SNP hold
Not too bad a tory performance at the general election but can only realisitically come within 6% of the SNP even with tactical unwind.
Next year for the Scottish parliament this will be a safe SNP seat, possibly with Labour and tories battling for second and the LDs nowhere.
Moray 2011:
SNP 45%
Con 25%
Lab 22%
LD 8%
I suspect that’s not too far off. I reckon the Tory vote may be a touch lower and the Libs a touch better, something like:
SNP 46%
Lab 22%
Con 21%
LD 10%
The Tories lost Forres to an Independent in a by-election yesterday, although the SNP topped the first preferences. The Tory vote has halved since 2007.
And the greens polled nearly 10% ov the vote, more than Labour. Not sure if anything can be read into this.
Prediction for May 2011 Scottish Parliament election
SNP – 13000
Con – 8000
Lab – 5000
LD – 3000
The last predictions for the 2011 Scottish Parliament Elections are wide of the mark the LibDems haven’t got a candidate yet but UKIP have!
The lib dem candidate is Jamie Patterson. He is also at the top of the list so has a reasonable chance of being elected if the lib dems lose both their highland consts to the SNP.
I thought Labour had nobbled it so that constituency candidates couldn’t also stand for list seats?
Is that only in Wales perhaps?
‘I thought Labour had nobbled it so that constituency candidates couldn’t also stand for list seats?’
They’ve bent/broken their rules a bit due to boundary changes.
I personally have no problem with it as my Tory constituency MSP is fairly good/efficient and would still be a list representative if he loses to labour.
I think it was only in Wales that that rule came in.
Annabelle Goldie is a list MSP and also stood in W Renfrewshire
Yes, it’s just in Wales where it’s forbidden by law (starting from 2007 election) to stand in both sections.
In Scotland every party can do whatever it prefers in terms of constituency and list candidates
What one might call the Helmut Kohl 1998 solution.
I always remember how he humiliatingly lost his constituency seat that year but it didn’t matter because he was top of the CDU list.
Council 2012 Prediction
SNP 13 (+4)
Ind 8 (-4)
Con 3 (-)
Lab 2 (-)