Comments on: Montgomeryshire

By: Shaun Bennett

Shaun Bennett — Mon, 05 Sep 2011 09:51:13 +0000

I wonder if Lembit Opik will ever return to national politcis now given that his process of self destruction seems to have continued since losing this seat.

Now having come last in the election of the Lib Dem London mayoral candidate, it seems Mr Opik is now comparing himself to such figures as Nelson Mandela in his hard trek back to political relevance!

By: Tim Jones

Tim Jones — Fri, 13 May 2011 12:14:12 +0000

Of all Liberal seats in England & Wales, this is probably the one that has remained most loyal to the party throughout the postwar period

I’m not sure whether the vote this time was more down to voters getting tired of Lembit Opik or the Tories chosing a very effective candidate but either way it will be intersting to see whsat happens and the assembly results bode very well for the Tories

Along with neighbouring Brecon & Radnor, it is the most sparsely populated area in England and Wales so any comparisons are hard to find

By: Matt

Matt — Fri, 13 May 2011 10:55:33 +0000

A lot of the ’83 result was because of the Labour and Plaid vote going en masse to the Liberals. The Tory vote actually rose in ’83 compared to ’79, but just not as much as the Liberal vote.

I doubt very much that we will see a large switch from Labour to Liberal at the next election like that. The Tory vote in 2010 was numerically higher than it was in either ’79 or ’83 (thought the electorate is evidently higher too). So I think it might bode well for them.

By: Pete Whitehead

Pete Whitehead — Fri, 13 May 2011 10:09:40 +0000

I hope you’re right. One is obviously minded of the 1979 result which was rapidly reversed. Rather ironically, the continued LD strength in neighbouring Brecon & Radnor (where they were traditionally weak prior t their by-election victory) may help keep the LDs in the frame here

By: Matt

Matt — Fri, 13 May 2011 09:41:05 +0000

It probably should do, the core of the city (according to Wikipedia) is only 116,000 so the electorate is probably close to the ideal number. But this is probably better suited to discussion over in that thread.

I think this seat’s was an excellent result for the Tories and I reckon that it seems a clean break has been made with the Lib Dems here now.

I suppose it started in ’07 when the Tories won a number of council seats here for the first time. Obviously, the general elections helped a great deal. But I think this has the makings of a real realignment in the area. Insome ways, it is natural Tory territory, like Shropshire North that it joins and I imagine that with natural Conservatives voting Tory instead of Liberal, and Labour voters going home, that this will prove a difficult one for the Libs to win again.

By: Dalek

Dalek — Fri, 13 May 2011 09:26:40 +0000

Yes, it was intended for Monmouth.

The suburban parts of both Newport seats are parts of historical Monmouthshire and the Monmouth Council.

Could the Westminster boundary proposals which reduce Wales from 40 to 30 seats see these areas returned to Monmouthshire and Newport revert back to being a single compact safe Labour urban constituency?

By: Matt

Matt — Fri, 13 May 2011 08:41:02 +0000

I think you are getting this seat mixed up with Monmouthshire, there was no English Democrat candidate here at the Welsh Assembly elections and I don’t think there has ever been any debate that Montgomeryshire is part of Wales.

By: richard

richard — Fri, 13 May 2011 06:58:35 +0000

“English Democrats seem to have more support in this Welsh constituency than most English constituencies.”

The compulsory teaching of Welsh in schools is not widely popular in parts of Wales.

By: Dalek

Dalek — Thu, 12 May 2011 22:34:30 +0000

The English Democrats polled 744 in the Welsh Assembly seat (on the platform of returning Monmouthshire to England), significantly better than Plaids performance in many general elections here.

This would be the equivalent of the SNP fielding a candidate in Berwick Upon Tweed or Corby and getting such a vote.

English Democrats seem to have more support in this Welsh constituency than most English constituencies.

By: John D

John D — Thu, 12 May 2011 22:01:06 +0000

I wasn’t entirely convinced that the Conservatives would actually take this seat in the Welsh Assembly, despite the gain last year, as I thought Lembit Opik’s profile and the popularity of Glyn Davies were the reasons for the shock result in the GE… and neither of those things were really relevant last week.

This result seems to indicate a genuine swing to the Conservatives in this area, rather than just an anti-Lembit / pro-Glyn Davies deviation from the norm.

It no doubt helped that Russell George is from the area, is a local councillor, and that the LD’s did not have an incumbent fighting the seat.

He’s pretty young, Mr George. He has time to build up his own personal vote… A potential successor to Mr Davies for the Westminster seat (as and when the candidacy becomes available).

Why didn’t UKIP stand here this year?