The UKPollingReport election guide for 2010 has now been archived and all comments will shortly be closed. The new Election Guide for the 2015 election is now online at http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide. The old site is archived at the UK Web Archive.
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Montgomeryshire

2010 Results:
Conservative: 13976 (41.33%)
Labour: 2407 (7.12%)
Liberal Democrat: 12792 (37.83%)
Plaid Cymru: 2802 (8.29%)
UKIP: 1128 (3.34%)
Independent: 324 (0.96%)
Others: 384 (1.14%)
Majority: 1184 (3.5%)

Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 15507 (50.3%)
Conservative: 8487 (27.5%)
Labour: 3778 (12.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 2144 (6.9%)
Other: 936 (3%)
Majority: 7020 (22.8%)

Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 8246 (27.4%)
Labour: 3454 (11.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 15419 (51.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 2078 (6.9%)
UKIP: 900 (3%)
Majority: 7173 (23.8%)

2001 Result
Conservative: 8085 (27.9%)
Labour: 3443 (11.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 14319 (49.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 1969 (6.8%)
UKIP: 786 (2.7%)
Other: 381 (1.3%)
Majority: 6234 (21.5%)

1997 Result
Conservative: 8344 (26.1%)
Labour: 6109 (19.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 14647 (45.9%)
Plaid Cymru: 1608 (5%)
Referendum: 879 (2.8%)
Other: 338 (1.1%)
Majority: 6303 (19.7%)

Boundary changes:

Profile:

portraitCurrent MP: Glyn Davies (Conservative) born 1944. Educated at Llanfair Caereinion High School and Aberystwyth University as a mature student. Farmer and former chairman of the Development board for rural Wales. Leader of Mongomeryshire district council 1985-1989, member of the Welsh Assembly for Mid and West Wales 1999-2007. Contested Montgomeryshire 1997.

2010 election candidates:
portraitGlyn Davies (Conservative) born 1944. Educated at Llanfair Caereinion High School and Aberystwyth University as a mature student. Farmer and former chairman of the Development board for rural Wales. Leader of Mongomeryshire district council 1985-1989, member of the Welsh Assembly for Mid and West Wales 1999-2007. Contested Montgomeryshire 1997.
portraitNick Colbourne (Labour) Retired police officer. Former Wrexham councillor.
portraitLembit Opik(Liberal Democrat) born 1965, Bangor, County Down to Estonian parents. Educated at Royal Belfast Academical Institution and the University of Bristol. Former personnel manager at Procter and Gamble. Contested Newcastle upon Tyne Central 1992. First elected as MP for Montgomeryshire in 1997. Spokesman on Northern Ireland 1997-2001, Northern Ireland and Wales 2001-2007, business and enterprise 2007, housing since 2007. Never media shy, Opik has become best known for his personal life (he is the former fiance of the weathergirl Sian Lloyd and one of the Cheeky girls) and attachment to somewhat unusual political causes, such as the threat of meteorites and Mark Oaten`s disasterously abortive 2006 leadership bid (more information at They work for you)
portraitHeledd Fychan (Plaid Cymru) Born 1980, Ysbyty Dewi Sant Bangor. Educated at Ysgol David Hughes and Trinity College Dublin.
portraitDavid W Rowlands (UKIP)
portraitMilton Ellis (National Front)
portraitBruce Lawson (Independent)

2001 Census Demographics

Total 2001 Population: 59474
Male: 49.7%
Female: 50.3%
Under 18: 22.8%
Over 60: 24.5%
Born outside UK: 2.2%
White: 99.4%
Asian: 0.2%
Mixed: 0.3%
Christian: 74.8%
Full time students: 1.7%
Graduates 16-74: 17.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 31.7%
Owner-Occupied: 68.1%
Social Housing: 16.6% (Council: 11.5%, Housing Ass.: 5.1%)
Privately Rented: 10.6%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 10.2%

NB - The constituency guide is now archived and is no longer being updated. The new guide is at http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide

251 Responses to “Montgomeryshire”

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  1. My prediction for 2015-
    Davies (Tory)- 14, 256 (42.4%, +1.1%)
    Lib Dem- 11, 139 (33.1%, -4.7%)
    Lab- 3, 367 (10.0%, +2.9%)
    PC- 2, 794 (8.3%, +0.0%)
    UKIP- 1, 148 (3.4%, +0.1%)
    Others- 889 (2.6%, +0.5%)

    Turnout- 33, 593.
    Majority- 3, 117 (9.2%)

    Swing- +2.9% From Lib Dem to Con.

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