Montgomeryshire
2010 Results:
Conservative: 13976 (41.33%)
Labour: 2407 (7.12%)
Liberal Democrat: 12792 (37.83%)
Plaid Cymru: 2802 (8.29%)
UKIP: 1128 (3.34%)
Independent: 324 (0.96%)
Others: 384 (1.14%)
Majority: 1184 (3.5%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 15507 (50.3%)
Conservative: 8487 (27.5%)
Labour: 3778 (12.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 2144 (6.9%)
Other: 936 (3%)
Majority: 7020 (22.8%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 8246 (27.4%)
Labour: 3454 (11.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 15419 (51.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 2078 (6.9%)
UKIP: 900 (3%)
Majority: 7173 (23.8%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 8085 (27.9%)
Labour: 3443 (11.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 14319 (49.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 1969 (6.8%)
UKIP: 786 (2.7%)
Other: 381 (1.3%)
Majority: 6234 (21.5%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 8344 (26.1%)
Labour: 6109 (19.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 14647 (45.9%)
Plaid Cymru: 1608 (5%)
Referendum: 879 (2.8%)
Other: 338 (1.1%)
Majority: 6303 (19.7%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Glyn Davies (Conservative) born 1944. Educated at Llanfair Caereinion High School and Aberystwyth University as a mature student. Farmer and former chairman of the Development board for rural Wales. Leader of Mongomeryshire district council 1985-1989, member of the Welsh Assembly for Mid and West Wales 1999-2007. Contested Montgomeryshire 1997.
Glyn Davies (Conservative) born 1944. Educated at Llanfair Caereinion High School and Aberystwyth University as a mature student. Farmer and former chairman of the Development board for rural Wales. Leader of Mongomeryshire district council 1985-1989, member of the Welsh Assembly for Mid and West Wales 1999-2007. Contested Montgomeryshire 1997.
Nick Colbourne (Labour) Retired police officer. Former Wrexham councillor. 
Lembit Opik(Liberal Democrat) born 1965, Bangor, County Down to Estonian parents. Educated at Royal Belfast Academical Institution and the University of Bristol. Former personnel manager at Procter and Gamble. Contested Newcastle upon Tyne Central 1992. First elected as MP for Montgomeryshire in 1997. Spokesman on Northern Ireland 1997-2001, Northern Ireland and Wales 2001-2007, business and enterprise 2007, housing since 2007. Never media shy, Opik has become best known for his personal life (he is the former fiance of the weathergirl Sian Lloyd and one of the Cheeky girls) and attachment to somewhat unusual political causes, such as the threat of meteorites and Mark Oaten`s disasterously abortive 2006 leadership bid (more information at They work for you)
Heledd Fychan (Plaid Cymru) Born 1980, Ysbyty Dewi Sant Bangor. Educated at Ysgol David Hughes and Trinity College Dublin.
David W Rowlands (UKIP) Milton Ellis (National Front)Bruce Lawson (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 59474
Male: 49.7%
Female: 50.3%
Under 18: 22.8%
Over 60: 24.5%
Born outside UK: 2.2%
White: 99.4%
Asian: 0.2%
Mixed: 0.3%
Christian: 74.8%
Full time students: 1.7%
Graduates 16-74: 17.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 31.7%
Owner-Occupied: 68.1%
Social Housing: 16.6% (Council: 11.5%, Housing Ass.: 5.1%)
Privately Rented: 10.6%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 10.2%
Didn’t realise it was the by-election that made the liberals competitive in this seat
They had a very good candidate in Richard Livsey and he must have made an impression to catipult the Liberals into third place
Surely though the Tory surge has been a result of the seat losing the pit villages in the south – which was the core of the Labour vote – something pointed out to me a couple of years ago – probably on this thread
Correction:
They had a very good candidate in Richard Livsey and he must have made an impression to catipult the Liberals from third place
“Surely though the Tory surge has been a result of the seat losing the pit villages in the south”
This certainly helped, but of course the Tories had already won in 1979 with the pit villages included and got a pretty hefty 47% then. Since these helpful boundary changes the Conservatives have only won the seat twice: in 1983 comfortably and in 1992 very narrowly