Montgomeryshire
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 15507 (50.3%)
Conservative: 8487 (27.5%)
Labour: 3778 (12.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 2144 (6.9%)
Other: 936 (3%)
Majority: 7020 (22.8%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 8246 (27.4%)
Labour: 3454 (11.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 15419 (51.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 2078 (6.9%)
UKIP: 900 (3%)
Majority: 7173 (23.8%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 8085 (27.9%)
Labour: 3443 (11.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 14319 (49.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 1969 (6.8%)
UKIP: 786 (2.7%)
Other: 381 (1.3%)
Majority: 6234 (21.5%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 8344 (26.1%)
Labour: 6109 (19.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 14647 (45.9%)
Plaid Cymru: 1608 (5%)
Referendum: 879 (2.8%)
Other: 338 (1.1%)
Majority: 6303 (19.7%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Outgoing MP: Lembit Opik(Liberal Democrat) born 1965, Bangor, County Down to Estonian parents. Educated at Royal Belfast Academical Institution and the University of Bristol. Former personnel manager at Procter and Gamble. Contested Newcastle upon Tyne Central 1992. First elected as MP for Montgomeryshire in 1997. Spokesman on Northern Ireland 1997-2001, Northern Ireland and Wales 2001-2007, business and enterprise 2007, housing since 2007. Never media shy, Opik has become best known for his personal life (he is the former fiance of the weathergirl Sian Lloyd and one of the Cheeky girls) and attachment to somewhat unusual political causes, such as the threat of meteorites and Mark Oaten`s disasterously abortive 2006 leadership bid (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Glyn Davies (Conservative) born 1944. Educated at Llanfair Caereinion High School and Aberystwyth University as a mature student. Farmer and former chairman of the Development board for rural Wales. Leader of Mongomeryshire district council 1985-1989, member of the Welsh Assembly for Mid and West Wales 1999-2007. Contested Montgomeryshire 1997.
Nick Colbourne (Labour) Retired police officer. Former Wrexham councillor. Lembit Opik(Liberal Democrat) born 1965, Bangor, County Down to Estonian parents. Educated at Royal Belfast Academical Institution and the University of Bristol. Former personnel manager at Procter and Gamble. Contested Newcastle upon Tyne Central 1992. First elected as MP for Montgomeryshire in 1997. Spokesman on Northern Ireland 1997-2001, Northern Ireland and Wales 2001-2007, business and enterprise 2007, housing since 2007. Never media shy, Opik has become best known for his personal life (he is the former fiance of the weathergirl Sian Lloyd and one of the Cheeky girls) and attachment to somewhat unusual political causes, such as the threat of meteorites and Mark Oaten`s disasterously abortive 2006 leadership bid (more information at They work for you)
Heledd Fychan (Plaid Cymru) David WL Rowlands (UKIP)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 59474
Male: 49.7%
Female: 50.3%
Under 18: 22.8%
Over 60: 24.5%
Born outside UK: 2.2%
White: 99.4%
Asian: 0.2%
Mixed: 0.3%
Christian: 74.8%
Full time students: 1.7%
Graduates 16-74: 17.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 31.7%
Owner-Occupied: 68.1%
Social Housing: 16.6% (Council: 11.5%, Housing Ass.: 5.1%)
Privately Rented: 10.6%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 10.2%
A Green intervention might cause Lembit Opik problems, even though the Greens wouldn’t win themselves. But perhaps they tacitly give Plaid a clear run, although Plaid stand no chance in this borders seat.
Interesting that the BNP don’t stand here, given that their leader lives near Welshpool. Of course, they wouldn’t get anywhere if they did.
They got only marginally fewer votes than Labour in this constituency in the European elections, though that isnt saying alot (Labour 6.3% BNP 5.6%)
Anonymoose – Yes I agree that Lembit didn’t always treat Sian as he should have. But if you listen to other voices, Sian apparently hasn’t always been the perfect lady!
I am sure Clement Davies’s return to the Liberals (which possibly saved the party from oblivion) was the reason this seat stayed Liberal. How infuriating, how appalling, for the Libs and Lib Dems, that we have had to pay such a high price in years without Parliamentary strength for those 20 years or so between the wars of division!
ladbrokes:
LD 1/3
Con 2/1
Lab 100/1
PC 100/1
Excellent Tory odds there Shadsy. Well worth a flutter.
Plaid stand no chance in this borders seat.
Whilst that is true, this seat stretches as far as the Dovey Estuary on the west coast. So although it is mainly a borders seat and increasingly a suburban seat with affluent residents living in housing estates in Newtown, Welshpool and towns along the English border, it also includes towns that are strongly welsh-speaking such as Machynlleth. Plaid will always have a core vote in places like that, but they won’t be able to get many votes elsewhere to get anywhere near winning.
The only party which has any chance of ousting Mr Opik is the Tories. I went to school in Machynlleth with a couple of Plaid candidates (Huw Parsons being on of them) and they made no impact in Welshpool/Newtown, where the bulk of the population live in this seat.
Could the return of a Conservative government in 2010 see a result similar to1979 in this seat?
I would say it’s an outside chance.
Thing’s hotting up there. Tecos planning 3 new superstores in Machy, Welshpool and Newtown with varying degrees of support / hostility. (Lembit is opposing the Machynlleth development)
The transportation of bits of these huge new windfarms planned is also causing concern.
It could well be the case in the 2 Mid-Wales seats that it’s the Liberal bastion of Montgomeryshire that turns blue while the more marginal Brecon and Radnor stays as a Lib Dem seat.
Hmmm I reckon that it will be the other way around…but then again I would!!
Just noticed that the LDs were beaten by UKIP in the Euro elections, by 18.8% to 17.4%, UKIPs strongest performance in Wales after Alyn&Deeside. The Euro results do show how much genuine core support a party has, minus all the negative or tactical voting that usually goes on.
The Lib Dems have selected Wyn Williams, a local farmer, as their Assembly candidate here for 2011.