Montgomeryshire
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 15507 (50.3%)
Conservative: 8487 (27.5%)
Labour: 3778 (12.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 2144 (6.9%)
Other: 936 (3%)
Majority: 7020 (22.8%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 8246 (27.4%)
Labour: 3454 (11.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 15419 (51.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 2078 (6.9%)
UKIP: 900 (3%)
Majority: 7173 (23.8%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 8085 (27.9%)
Labour: 3443 (11.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 14319 (49.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 1969 (6.8%)
UKIP: 786 (2.7%)
Other: 381 (1.3%)
Majority: 6234 (21.5%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 8344 (26.1%)
Labour: 6109 (19.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 14647 (45.9%)
Plaid Cymru: 1608 (5%)
Referendum: 879 (2.8%)
Other: 338 (1.1%)
Majority: 6303 (19.7%)
Boundary changes
Current MP: Lembit Opik (Lib Dem) born 1965, Bangor, County Down to Estonian parents. Educated at Royal Belfast Academical Institution and the University of Bristol. Former personnel manager at Procter and Gamble. Contested Newcastle upon Tyne Central 1992. First elected as MP for Montgomeryshire in 1997. Spokesman on Northern Ireland 1997-2001, Northern Ireland and Wales 2001-2007, business and enterprise 2007, housing since 2007. Never media shy, Opik has become best known for his personal life (he is the former fiance of the weathergirl Sian Lloyd and is now attached to one of the Cheeky Girls) and attachment to somewhat unusual political causes, such as the threat of meteorites and Mark Oaten’s disasterously abortive 2006 leadership bid (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Glyn Davies (Conservative) born 1944. Educated at Llanfair Caereinion High School and Aberystwyth University as a mature student. Farmer and former chairman of the Development board for rural Wales. Leader of Mongomeryshire district council 1985-1989, member of the Welsh Assembly for Mid and West Wales 1999-2007. Contested Montgomeryshire 1997.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 59474
Male: 49.7%
Female: 50.3%
Under 18: 22.8%
Over 60: 24.5%
Born outside UK: 2.2%
White: 99.4%
Asian: 0.2%
Mixed: 0.3%
Christian: 74.8%
Full time students: 1.7%
Graduates 16-74: 17.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 31.7%
Owner-Occupied: 68.1%
Social Housing: 16.6% (Council: 11.5%, Housing Ass.: 5.1%)
Privately Rented: 10.6%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 10.2%
37 Responses
Pages:« 1 2 [3] Show All
Oh, I’d be surprised if Lembit lost. He is a bit of a character, and he assiduously represents his constituents interests. And there will be all those pictures of Lembit and Cheeky getting married!
May 6th, 2008 at 11:49 amI believe that one of the key factors when the Conservatives won Montgomery in 1979 was a very strong swing in Newtown. Interestingly the Conservatives did very well in Newtown in the council elections, winning three wards. This seat will be one to watch.
May 20th, 2008 at 3:40 pmLewisham Deptford
And there will be all those pictures of Lembit and Cheeky getting married!
Given the relative importance of old Liberal-style Nonconformist vote here, that might not be much of a blessing….
Plaid will never be a major influence here, given the relative weakness of North Welsh influence and Welsh speaking areas here, but, if they can eat into the LD total too, it will be good news for the Tories.
May 20th, 2008 at 4:27 pmEllesmere Port and Neston
This seat has the potential to be a (or the) big shock on Election Night. People in the area will not be too pleased about the fact that most people associate him with the media rather than politics. Conservatives to gain the seat but not increase their vote by much (perhaps 1,000) but Plaid to gain a couple of thousand Liberal votes. To really look ahead I would call this a Plaid target seat for a 2014/2015 General Election.
July 15th, 2008 at 12:20 amIndeed, Lembit does seem to be using his constituents in order to make as much money as possible as a “celebrity”. A few HIGNFY appearances are fair enough, but I’ve lost count of the number of shows on which he and his various, more famous, companions have appeared. He came over very prickly and quite unpleasant in a recent Guardian/Observer interview recently.
How popular is he locally? Often it’s the case that although an MP may seem preoccupied by matters other than constituency business, an area enjoys its moment in the spotlight that would never come without their MP’s other activities. Despite their being unlikely bedfellows, a lot of Hartlepudlians had a genuine affection for Peter Mandelson. Having said that, most viwers of “Mr and Mrs” probably wouldn’t have a clue which seat he represents, whereas most people knew that Mandy sat for Hartlepool.
Getting back to the point, it would be a massive shock were the Lib Dems to be defeated here, a seat that is one of the tiny few to, other than in 1979, elect Liberals since the time of Gladstone.
July 15th, 2008 at 12:50 amIt was a massive shock when the Conservatives won here in 1979 - an election when they did very well in Wales.
It is expected that the Conservatives will do very well in Wales at the next election…..
July 15th, 2008 at 6:32 amYeah, LibDem here and I ain’t impressed with Lempit ‘Opeless and his celebrity charms. I suggest a good long time spent at his constituency would do him (and the party) the world of good.
July 15th, 2008 at 6:45 amPages: « 1 2 [3] Show All