Milton Keynes North
2010 Results:
Conservative: 23419 (43.46%)
Labour: 14458 (26.83%)
Liberal Democrat: 11894 (22.07%)
BNP: 1154 (2.14%)
UKIP: 1772 (3.29%)
Green: 733 (1.36%)
Monster Raving Loony: 157 (0.29%)
Independent: 95 (0.18%)
Others: 206 (0.38%)
Majority: 8961 (16.63%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 19053 (39%)
Conservative: 17192 (35.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 9973 (20.4%)
Other: 2693 (5.5%)
Majority: 1862 (3.8%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 19674 (39.3%)
Labour: 18009 (35.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 9789 (19.5%)
Green: 1090 (2.2%)
UKIP: 1400 (2.8%)
Other: 142 (0.3%)
Majority: 1665 (3.3%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 17932 (38.1%)
Labour: 19761 (42%)
Liberal Democrat: 8375 (17.8%)
UKIP: 1026 (2.2%)
Majority: 1829 (3.9%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 19961 (39%)
Labour: 20201 (39.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 8907 (17.4%)
Referendum: 1492 (2.9%)
Other: 675 (1.3%)
Majority: 240 (0.5%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Mark Lancaster(Conservative) (more information at They work for you)
Mark Lancaster(Conservative) (more information at They work for you)Andrew Pakes (Labour) born Newport Pagnell. Educated at the University of Hull. President of the NUS 1998-2000. Former Chief of Staff to Nicky Gavron and Head of Political Communications at Labour Party HQ. Member of the TGWU. Southwark Councillor. Jill Hope (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Headlands Grammar School and Southampton University. Area Manager for HSBC. Northampton Borough councillor. Contested Harborough in 2001 & 2005.Alan Francis (Green)Michael Phillips (UKIP) Richard Hamilton (BNP) Matt Bananamatt Fensome (Official Monster Raving Loony) John Lennon (CPA) Anat Vyas (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 98602
Male: 49.8%
Female: 50.2%
Under 18: 25.2%
Over 60: 14.2%
Born outside UK: 9.7%
White: 90.9%
Black: 2.5%
Asian: 3.5%
Mixed: 1.8%
Other: 1.3%
Christian: 65.8%
Hindu: 1.3%
Muslim: 2.3%
Full time students: 2.5%
Graduates 16-74: 19.9%
No Qualifications 16-74: 23%
Owner-Occupied: 72.3%
Social Housing: 18% (Council: 12.6%, Housing Ass.: 5.3%)
Privately Rented: 7.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 3.1%
Thanks JJB – I worried about my post being lost amongst this history lesson!
[I love, tbw, Labour’s “Year zero” approach to economic claims. The periods of economic growth they keep harping on about began under Kenneth Clark, but, hey, the Party Must Not Talk About History, There Is No History, All Is New, and All Is Ours. He who controls the past…..)
I think CY has a falsely rosy view of Tory economic management in the 1950s
Thanks Doktorb – yes I was replying to your point about the boundaries. I have no inside knowledge, but don’t think MK is growing very fast anymore.
I suppose politics is a rough old trade, and in a way you can’t blame them for taking a Year Zero approach, but I find it a bit annoying the way Gordon Brown talks all the time that he inherited the economy in 1988-92, not what he actually inherited.
Does he Pete?
I thought the Tory government(s) from 1951-64 was quite possibly the best government the UK has ever had
Although considered the scum of the earth by today’s malignent party, Rab Butler, Harold Macmillan and co delivered full employment, zero homelessness, low inflation, and a fully functioning welfare state
I know it wouldn’t appeal to you Pete but the late Ian Gilmour has written an excellent book on this very subject – Whatever Happened to the Tories
I recommend it
yes read it. Very scholarly. But I’m sure that Ian Gilmour’s writings appeal to tribal anti-Tories like me rather more than those who identify with the Conservative Party.
I think you’re probably right Barnaby but surely the crucial fact is that up until his death Ian Gilmore always identified himself as a Tory – just a very different one from today’s lot, which proves that I’m not the only one to contend that the Tories have moved considerably to the right over the past few decades
Of course if the Conservative government of 1951 to 1964 was so succesful I’m sure the Labour supporters here will accept the blame for the messing of things up by the subsequent Labour government and unions!
My prediction for this seat;
Cons 21500
Labour 17000
Lib Dem 9000
Others 2500
Anant Manishanker Vyas standing here for Jury Team
Andrew Pakes is a strong local candidate; might sway some of the fans of Mark Lancaster, especially given that Lancaster has proved himself to be a rather hopeless constituency MP.
Lib-Dems are strong here though; I’m surprised that Labour aren’t targetting the Bradwell ward; I live in the area and have received just one letter. Particularly suprising since it neighbours Stantonbury, a Labour stronghold and where the former MP, Brian White, currently serves as a councillor.
BNP have selected Richard Hamilton here
Cons Hold= 5,000 maj
notional gain here. This is now a notionally Labour seat Shaun because of the addition of Wolverton, a traditional Labour stronghold. But you’re basically right.
CON 4000
Here’s an opportunity to “declare” this seat, and contribute to the overall prediction for 2010
http://hungparliament2010.blogspot.com/2010/01/i-undermentioned-hereby-give-notice.html
Rev John Lennon(!) is standing here for the CPA.
Con Gain
Maj 2100
Con maj 5,500
Matt Fensome – Official Monster Raving Loony Party, candidate for Milton Keynes North not South.
Expecting a Tory majority here of 1500-2000; will be interesting to see what the BNP vote will do here. Wolverton ward has a large Asian community, and we could see the “Neanderthal throwbacks” *gasp* possibly keeping their deposit.
CON GAIN
Poor Labour result. It’s just about on the Labour radar, but only in the event of a major national victory. Much depends on the boundaries on which the seat is fought.
I would have expected Labour to have performed better in Milton Keynes South, which isn’t nice in itself, even less so when you consider it’s merged with all the small, industrial areas surrounding the town – Newport Pagnell, Bletchley, Wolverton etc – which used to have a strong enough Labour vote to turn the rock-soild Tory seat of Buckingham blue to red in the 1960s
The result here though is much as expected. I can’t see Labour bettering the 2001 result any time soon. I was surprised when they unseated the articulate free mason Peter Butler in 1997
actually given that Newport Pagnell and Wolverton are actuyally both in this seat, this does represent a poor resulty for Labour – but is entirely in keeping with the type of seats that Labour performed particularly badly in in 2010
Latest electorates for the Milton Keynes seats:
MK North: 81,226
MK South: 85,552
Were Newport Pagnell and Olney in Buckingham to 1983, Milton Keynes to 1992, and Milton Keynes North East to 2010?