Comments on: Mid Dorset and North Poole

By: Simon Williams

Simon Williams — Thu, 11 Mar 2010 16:48:18 +0000

Chrisinthenorth, that particular quote was in a letter that Mrs Brooke wrote to the Echo and appeared in Tuesday’s edition on the letters page so I am afraid that it doesn’t appear on the on-line version of the paper.

By: ChrisInTheNorth

ChrisInTheNorth — Wed, 10 Mar 2010 21:16:51 +0000

I was a little surprise to read above in Simon Williams’ comment that Annette Brooke said she doesn’t consider her seat marginal. Politicians of all parties have a tendancy of talking up their chance of losing.. if they are ahead, or of winning if they are behind; The objective being to GET their vote OUT.

So, I googled The Bournemouth Echo (it doesn’t have much of a circulation in Leeds) and I think(?) I’ve found the article – I accept it might be a cut down version of an article in the printed version, but Ms Brooke only seems to be saying that she is getting a good reaction on the doorstep ‘My seat is not merginal’ is not reported….

http://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/5049956.Will_Dorset_marginals_help_decide_election_/

By: Simon Williams

Simon Williams — Wed, 10 Mar 2010 20:15:16 +0000

Mark, the Poole wards only make up 40% of the constituency now, and Alderney, which was a huge Lib Dem stronghold has moved in boundary changes to Bournemouth West, being replaced by Wimborne & Colehill. In the CC elections last year the Lib Dems lost Wimborne and only just hung on to Colehill by about 55 votes. This seat, despite Annette Brooke’s over-confidence, IS a marginal and I would not be at all suprised to see it change hands, even if it is only by a slim margin.

By: Mark Senior

Mark Senior — Wed, 10 Mar 2010 18:40:12 +0000

Although as you say the LibDem majorities in the CC wards were cut last year the LibDems still ouypolled the Conservatives and the LibDems won the 4 Poole wards in this parliamentary seat very easily in the 2007 elections . Will still be a comfortable win for Annette Brooks on my opinion .

By: Simon Williams

Simon Williams — Wed, 10 Mar 2010 18:14:03 +0000

Very suprised to see in the Bournemouth Echo that Annette Brooke doesn’t consider her seat to be a marginal. When you look at all the hugely slashed Lib Dem majorities in last years’ County elections and the fact that she is being out-campaigned by her Conservative opponent, I would have thought that she would have been less blase and not taken her electorate for granted. Incumbency is no guarantee to winning here.

By: PIKU

PIKU — Wed, 24 Feb 2010 23:34:03 +0000

Brook recently had a meeting with a ’senior’ Labour whip, again reinforcing the rumours she is cosying up to Brown in preparation for taking a junior position in a Lab-LD coalition after the election. Clegg still reported to be angry with her.

By: DW

DW — Wed, 24 Feb 2010 20:54:11 +0000

I wouldn’t be sure of that quote Frederic. This isn’t your typical South West seat.

It’s mostly suburban and, with the exception of parts of Purbeck, there is no Liberal tradition here.

Boundary changes also swap strongly and mildly Liberal wards in Alderney and Creekmoor for more marginal Wimborne and Colehill which return split delegations to both the district and county councils.

Mark my words our result here will be very very close.

By: Frederic Stansfield

Frederic Stansfield — Wed, 24 Feb 2010 18:20:01 +0000

I confess life was too short to do this check, maybe I should have done. But it appears I was right to be suspicious about the quote in the paper.

It basically seems to be that the LibDems can be reasonably confident of holding on if their majority in a South West seat is, as here, over 5,000

By: John R.

John R. — Wed, 24 Feb 2010 17:55:45 +0000

If you go to Ladbrokes website, you’ll see that they have the Lib Dems as favorites to hold this seat.

By: Frederic Stansfield

Frederic Stansfield — Wed, 24 Feb 2010 17:34:13 +0000

Today’s “Times” has an article about LibDem seats in the South West that are LibDem targets. They report that Ladborkes (presumably our friend Shadsy) are quoting the Tories as 1-7 on hre, A bit surprising as this is not their first target – perhaps somebody has placed a large bet. But having been in Poole (not this seat) over Christmas, I find it hard to see how the LibDems ever won here!