Mid Dorset and North Poole
2010 Results:
Conservative: 20831 (44.52%)
Labour: 2748 (5.87%)
Liberal Democrat: 21100 (45.1%)
UKIP: 2109 (4.51%)
Majority: 269 (0.58%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 23605 (48.8%)
Conservative: 18336 (37.9%)
Labour: 4659 (9.6%)
Other: 1733 (3.6%)
Majority: 5270 (10.9%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 16518 (36.6%)
Labour: 5221 (11.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 22000 (48.7%)
UKIP: 1420 (3.1%)
Majority: 5482 (12.1%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 17974 (41.1%)
Labour: 6765 (15.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 18358 (42%)
UKIP: 621 (1.4%)
Majority: 384 (0.9%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 20632 (40.7%)
Labour: 8014 (15.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 19951 (39.3%)
Referendum: 2136 (4.2%)
Majority: 681 (1.3%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Annette Brooke(Liberal Democrat) born 1947. Educated at Romford County Technical School and the LSE. Former teacher and Open University tutor. Former Poole councillor and Lib Dem group leader on Poole council from 2000-2001. First elected as MP for Mid Dorset and North Poole in 2001. Spokesman on home affairs 2001-2004, children 2004-2005, education since 2005 (more information at They work for you)
Nick King (Conservative) born 1965. Bournemouth borough councillor since 2005.
Darren Brown (Labour) Annette Brooke(Liberal Democrat) born 1947. Educated at Romford County Technical School and the LSE. Former teacher and Open University tutor. Former Poole councillor and Lib Dem group leader on Poole council from 2000-2001. First elected as MP for Mid Dorset and North Poole in 2001. Spokesman on home affairs 2001-2004, children 2004-2005, education since 2005 (more information at They work for you)
Dave Evans (UKIP) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 80723
Male: 48.4%
Female: 51.6%
Under 18: 22.3%
Over 60: 23.8%
Born outside UK: 4.3%
White: 98.8%
Asian: 0.3%
Mixed: 0.5%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 77.9%
Full time students: 2.1%
Graduates 16-74: 18.9%
No Qualifications 16-74: 22.9%
Owner-Occupied: 82.9%
Social Housing: 9.7% (Council: 4.2%, Housing Ass.: 5.5%)
Privately Rented: 5.2%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 4.6%
I’ve spent the past few days in Alderney, formerly in this constituency, to visit my grandfather for Easter. It’s a shame that it’s no longer in MDNP as it really doesn’t belong in Bournemouth West and my grandfather, a lifelong Liberal/Lib Dem, is not very pleased to be represented by a Tory as he spoke highly of Annette Brooke. I also visited Wimbourne while I was out there and found to be a nice little place that I may well visit again.
What happens here next time will be interesting. The Lib Dems could still win if Brooke stands again. She’ll be 68 in 2015 so she won’t be too old to stand again but it’s certainly possible that she’ll stand down anyway. Tories need to start making gains from the LDs in the wards making up this seat. The local elections in 10 days will show whether they are up to the task.
‘What happens here next time will be interesting.’
I would have thought that as things currently stand this seat is a pretty straightforward Tory gain
Annette Brooke’s personal vote has just been large enough to keep the seat Lib Dem over the last two elections but the national picture now looks much more bleak
It’s never really happened for the Lib Dems in Dorset. The Bournemouth seats look as elusive as ever, (despite boundary changes that should have made West a viable target), Poole has never been in the mix and all that hard work in Dorset West has gone completely unrewarded with the Tories having increased their majority at the last two elections
Yes, the Lib Dems have never quite managed to realise their potential in Dorset. The same is also true of Surrey. Both of these counties were the only ones in England which returned a full slate of Conservative MPs in 1997 but that all changed in 2001 where the Tories lost this seat, Dorset South and Guildford. The other two have of course since returned to type yet this one was still just out of their reach.
While holding this seat will be very difficult for the LDs, it will be made easier if Annette Brooke stands again along with some favourable boundary changes such as Alderney being put in back in where it belongs. Tories could still pull it off anyway if enough Labour minded people return to the fold and also if Nick King contests the seat again as he seems to be quite popular in the region.
‘Yes, the Lib Dems have never quite managed to realise their potential in Dorset. The same is also true of Surrey.’
I’m not sure if the Surrey analogy fits to be honest. They were indeed the only two colunties (excluding Huntingdon and Rutland) to return a full slate of Tory MPs in 97 but the Tory majorities in Surrey were generally much larger than those in Dorset
The Lib Dems did of course win Guildford – quite unexpectedly in 2001 – and came close to unseating Virginia Bottomly in Farnham but in comparison I think the largest Tory majority in Dorset was just over 5000 (Bournemouth West & Poole) which pales in comparison to the five figure majorities in the Surrey stockbelt – Surrey East, Epsom & Ewell,Surrey Heath, Esher & Walton etc
Notwithstanding Guildford, the Lib Dems did at one stage have a strong base in local government in Surrey but those days are long gone and I think it could be quite some time until we see another Lib Dem MP in Surrey
Ms Brooke is certainly the Lib Dems best hope of holding on here – but I still suspect that already at this early stage the odds seem to be against her
It’s far from clear I think that this seat will survive the boundary review
In a Purbeck by-election last night, the Tories gained a marginal Lib Dem seat:
Con 669 (52.8; +5.4)
LD 599 (47.2; -5.4)
Majority 70
Turnout 41.8%
Con gain from LD
Percentage change is since May 2010.
No doubt the LDs will be disappointed to lose, but it strikes me as a rather less than disastrous result for them; I suspect the Tories might have liked a more clear-cut victory. I think Lytchett Matravers is in this constituency, but please correct me if I’m wrong.
I don’t know what the ward was that we gained, but its interesting because Purbeck was looking like it was starting to trend against the Tories before 2010. I think they won back control of the council only recently-last year or this.
As Barnaby said, a more convincing win nver hurt anyone. But its interesting that the Tories won on a 5.4% swing directly from Lib Dem in a ward where they were the only two candidates standing. Still it seems most people in the country are tending to punish the Lib Dems and not punish the Tories when they have the chance to do so. Other than that, I agree it tells us little.
It was Lytchett Matravers ward Shaun, sorry if I didn’t make that clear.
So where does Mrs Brooke go after the boundary review?
Has anyone to patience to look at the possible numbers for the proposed Blandford and Wimborne constituency?
Regards south dorset voter
Probably retirement, she will be late 60’s at next election, but if not she will start 10% down whether she follows most costituents to B & w or follows her hme base Broadstone with Canford Heath to poole.
The first tranche of target seats from the Conservatives in 2013…..include some seats they’ve already called for, which tells its own story I think
Anyway, the ten seats in the latest update (including some they’ve already mentioned) are
Birmingham Northfield
Bolton West
Brecon and Radnorshire
Chippenham
Chorley
Eastbourne
Mid Dorset and North Poole
Middlesborough South and East Cleveland
Morley and Outwood
North Devon
Somerton and Frome
Telford
Torbay
Vale of Clwyd
That’s a curious bunch. Chorley looks particularly unlikely but I shouldn’t have thought Vale of Clwyd is much of a prospect for them either.
Of the Lib Dem seats on the list, this is the one most likely to fall to the Conservatives.